Trent...I think your looking at this the wrong way. As a rule it's usually not what happens with other teams around the country, it's what happens to you within your own conference. I see several roadblocks for Florida, along with keeping their team, and especially Tim Tebow healthy. Something that isn't always easy to do when you have a running QB. Plus the general improvement of the SEC will make it much more difficult this year. I think it's a great bet.
You also have to realize that Florida plays in a very difficult conference. Would anyone be shocked if USC ran the table and went 12-0? What about Penn State? Is 12-0 reasonable for them? How about the survivor of the OU-Texas game. Can they go 13-0? What you have to realize is that if Florida loses their conference chaqmpionship game, they are eliminated from contention. If they lose ANY game and two other BCS teams run the table, they are eliminated. There has not been a repeat Champion for many years now, unless you want to count USC's back to back AP Championships, and that was back in time when USC lost 1 regular season game in 3 years. Florida is not nearly that good. I would need more than 2/1 to take that wager.
Florida is loaded this year and is better than last years championship team (Imo), BUT.... I feel that overall the SEC is stronger and FL faces LSU on the road at night Oct 10th and then has Georgia on board Oct 31st. I guess my point is that their most challenging games are mid to late season. There are no guarantees that they win the SEC championship game either. This wager looks solid to me! GL with your selection
The Gators were also pretty fortunate to avoid many key injuries last season. This isn't easy to do 2 years in a row. Especially when your in the rugged SEC. Plus they were +22 in TO margin last season. Despite bringing their defense back intact, that is still a humongous feat that will be almost impossible to repeat.
Florida has a pretty easy schedule and will almost undoubtedly end up in the SEC championship game which gives them a great shot at playing for a national title.
I absolutely refuse to bet futures at - money because it makes hedging impossible. Unless you think they are going to lose to LSU AND Georgia which I don't see happening (I don't see them losing to either team) then I think this isn't a smart bet because you're going to end up with Florida vs. Texas or something and you're essentially holding a -230 card on Texas who will likely be a +150 underdog or something.
I'd rather take Florida +200 then I could do a small hedge in the SEC championship game on the ML (it was +300 last year) to guarantee a profit and then another hedge in the NC game if they get there if you so chose or you can let it ride.
I absolutely refuse to bet futures at - money because it makes hedging impossible. Unless you think they are going to lose to LSU AND Georgia which I don't see happening (I don't see them losing to either team) then I think this isn't a smart bet because you're going to end up with Florida vs. Texas or something and you're essentially holding a -230 card on Texas who will likely be a +150 underdog or something.
I'd rather take Florida +200 then I could do a small hedge in the SEC championship game on the ML (it was +300 last year) to guarantee a profit and then another hedge in the NC game if they get there if you so chose or you can let it ride.
I think a better way to bet what your thinking is during the season, ML dog bet games such as @lsu, arkansas, ga, and fsu.
They are playing 3 non conference games vs teams that have 0 chance of winning a game at florida.
Arkansas game this year imo looks like a similar scenario as last years' ole miss game...which pulled the upset at florida last season as a greater than 3td dog.
Doing that, you arent tying your $ up the entire season and you will get much more value than +230 in each of those games anyway.
As an early guideline to what type of ML there will be, the goy matchups has Florida -11 @ Lsu, I dont remember florida/ga line, and florida/fsu line is 20.
Florida could lose a reg season game this year and still win the national championship.
They are playing 3 non conference games vs teams that have 0 chance of winning a game at florida.
Arkansas game this year imo looks like a similar scenario as last years' ole miss game...which pulled the upset at florida last season as a greater than 3td dog.
Doing that, you arent tying your $ up the entire season and you will get much more value than +230 in each of those games anyway.
As an early guideline to what type of ML there will be, the goy matchups has Florida -11 @ Lsu, I dont remember florida/ga line, and florida/fsu line is 20.
Florida could lose a reg season game this year and still win the national championship.
I was considering this as well. Personally, I don't usually play futures unless they're 10 to 1 or better except in very rare cases such as Wimbledon this year, where I took Federer +135 to win before the tournament started (but I also made plays on Roddick at 40 to 1, Del Potro at 40 to 1, and Djokovic at 12 to 1).
Even a game for Florida at South Carolina late in the season looks easy now. But when you add in the revenge factor (56-6 last season), or possible injuries for Florida to deal with late in the season (like Percy Harvin last year), and these road games don't quite seem so easy when they get to them...Florida was pretty fortunate last season. And they had a "mission" after losing to Ole Miss early in the season. But with almost every national championship team that I've seen in the past, they've had late season problems with teams looking for a big kill. Remember NC LSU in 2007? They lost to Arkansas at home in the last game of the season, and were very lucky to get in the NC game. And Florida is 2006? 5 out of the last 6 games they played that season were nail biters that could have gone either way. Nothing is a gimme in college football. I don't care how good a team is perceived to be. They're all human. And shit happens.
you're crazy if you think i'm taking florida at +200...
but if you have ONLY two choices, i feel it's even crazier to pay almost 5X the price to play against them!!!
i could care less about schedules, conferences, all that other crap...anything can happen to any team. but show me the win probabilities that make "no" a 75% chance of occuring and that the true price for this should be -300 and i'll say it's a good play...
otherwise, this is your bottom line: you're playing AGAINST the best team in the country AND you're paying -230..!!
that seems asinine to me...
but if you have ONLY two choices, i feel it's even crazier to pay almost 5X the price to play against them!!!
i could care less about schedules, conferences, all that other crap...anything can happen to any team. but show me the win probabilities that make "no" a 75% chance of occuring and that the true price for this should be -300 and i'll say it's a good play...
otherwise, this is your bottom line: you're playing AGAINST the best team in the country AND you're paying -230..!!
that seems asinine to me...
i GUARANTEE that the odds for TWO BCS teams to go undefeated would be way more than -230, so if that's one of your reasons to play "NO" on this play than your analysis is way off...
Now that's a play i would lay -230...will two BCS teams other than UF finish undefeated?? there's PLENTY of value in -230 there!!!
Anyone who goes against Florida is foolish IMO. Unless Florida loses in the SEC Championship game, pending two BCS schools going undefeated they will still most likely be in the BCS title game with 1 loss. I'd much rather pick and choose my spots on when to bet against them, opposed to laying -230 on them not repeating.
Good point GS, I remember in 2007 when UF won it all. They beat South Carolina by ONE point and that was at the Swamp. USC was 3-5 in the SEC at that point and 5-5 on the season, it was unthinkable that UF could loose. Game could have gone either way and I think UF won because of a missed field goal late by the Cocks. That could have single handily changed the entire season but people forget when they are looking ahead at the upcoming schedule and penciling wins.
