<table style="width: 600px;" class="table-races" id="table-1" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Florida</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">CNN/Time</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">McCain 48, Obama 48</td><td bgcolor="#cccccc">Tie</td></tr></tbody></table>
Latest CNN polls...............
CNN/Time: Battleground States Remain Close
Here are the latest CNN/Time battleground state polls:
Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 45%
North Carolina: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
"Taking into account these new polls, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House."
CNN/Time: Battleground States Remain Close
Here are the latest CNN/Time battleground state polls:
Florida: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
Indiana: McCain 51%, Obama 45%
North Carolina: McCain 48%, Obama 47%
Ohio: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Wisconsin: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
"Taking into account these new polls, CNN now estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win 233 electoral votes and John McCain 189. There are 116 electoral votes up for grabs; 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House."
RCP Average 09/05 - 09/16 -- 49.4 44.4 McCain +5.0
CNN/Time 09/14 - 09/16 907 RV 48 48 Tie
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 49 44 McCain +5
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 511 LV 50 42 McCain +8
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1032 LV 50 43 McCain +7
PPP (D) 09/06 - 09/07 986 LV 50 45 McCain +5
See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
CNN/Time 09/14 - 09/16 907 RV 48 48 Tie
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 49 44 McCain +5
InAdv/PollPosition 09/10 - 09/10 511 LV 50 42 McCain +8
Quinnipiac 09/05 - 09/09 1032 LV 50 43 McCain +7
PPP (D) 09/06 - 09/07 986 LV 50 45 McCain +5
See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
RealClearPolitics Electoral College
(270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win)
Last Ten Elections: 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | 1992 | 1988 | 1984 | 1980 | 1976 | 1972 | 1968
Obama/Biden 197
McCain/Palin 221
Toss Up 120
(Click on State or Table Below for Latest Polls and to Change Status)
I get it....I'm just messing around. I don't put too much merit in these top lines (other than to show trends).
You really can't.
A state like Minnesota is really close right now because McCain is outspending Obama (by a lot from what I read) on advertising and they just had the convention there.
A state like North Dakota is (was) close for the opposite reasons.
McCain is outspending Obama in PA and gained a few points...to be expected
Obama is outspending McCain (almost 3-1) in VA and gained ground...again to be expected.
There is so much more going in these states and you can't just look at the "moves" from week to week.
You really can't.
A state like Minnesota is really close right now because McCain is outspending Obama (by a lot from what I read) on advertising and they just had the convention there.
A state like North Dakota is (was) close for the opposite reasons.
McCain is outspending Obama in PA and gained a few points...to be expected
Obama is outspending McCain (almost 3-1) in VA and gained ground...again to be expected.
There is so much more going in these states and you can't just look at the "moves" from week to week.
However if the below is right...you can paint Iowa as blue as can be. If McCain is really outspending him there 2-1 and is losing ground...he should bail from the state.
"McCain and Obama are roughly even in spending in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Obama is out-advertising McCain by nearly 3:2 in Missouri and by nearly 3:1 in Virginia. McCain has aired virtually no ads in Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. McCain's campaign is, however, out-advertising Obama by over 3:2 in Pennsylvania and over 2:1 in Iowa. McCain is also out-advertising Obama by a wide margin in Minnesota - a state where Obama has spent just $18,000."
"McCain and Obama are roughly even in spending in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Obama is out-advertising McCain by nearly 3:2 in Missouri and by nearly 3:1 in Virginia. McCain has aired virtually no ads in Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. McCain's campaign is, however, out-advertising Obama by over 3:2 in Pennsylvania and over 2:1 in Iowa. McCain is also out-advertising Obama by a wide margin in Minnesota - a state where Obama has spent just $18,000."
Not just Florida, but bad news all around for Mccain.
Time/CNN Polls:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Mccain should be running away with Florida/Indiana/NC. But its dead heat. Gallop poll shows Obama up by 3 as well. NOT GOOD NEWS for Mccain. Plus you have this horrible weak on the Markets, which doesn't bode well for Mccain.
I don't see know Mccain pulls this one out. He probably will be down by 3-4 points before the debates, and dead heat in swing states. Mccain is UNABLE to even answer questions from reporters on the view, so how is he going to go into the debate? At best he would be looking to come out even.
Instead of reducing swing states, it seems like its stayed the same number. He will have to sweep all the swing states (NV, NM, Colorodo, Ohio, Indiana, NC, Fl, Virginia) which will be tough if not impossible.
Time/CNN Polls:
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Mccain should be running away with Florida/Indiana/NC. But its dead heat. Gallop poll shows Obama up by 3 as well. NOT GOOD NEWS for Mccain. Plus you have this horrible weak on the Markets, which doesn't bode well for Mccain.
I don't see know Mccain pulls this one out. He probably will be down by 3-4 points before the debates, and dead heat in swing states. Mccain is UNABLE to even answer questions from reporters on the view, so how is he going to go into the debate? At best he would be looking to come out even.
Instead of reducing swing states, it seems like its stayed the same number. He will have to sweep all the swing states (NV, NM, Colorodo, Ohio, Indiana, NC, Fl, Virginia) which will be tough if not impossible.
Florida: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>09/05 - 09/16</td><td>--</td><td>49.4</td><td>44.4</td><td class="spread">McCain +5.0</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CNN/Time</td><td>09/14 - 09/16</td><td>907 RV</td><td>48</td><td>48</td><td class="spread">Tie</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/14 - 09/14</td><td>500 LV</td><td>49</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +5</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">InAdv/PollPosition</td><td>09/10 - 09/10</td><td>511 LV</td><td>50</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">McCain +8</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/05 - 09/09</td><td>1032 LV</td><td>50</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">McCain +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">PPP (D)</td><td>09/06 - 09/07</td><td>986 LV</td><td>50</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">McCain +5</td></tr></tbody></table>See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for Florida: McCain vs. Obama
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th> </th><th>McCain</th><th>Obama</th><th> </th></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Intrade Real Time Quotes</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=417866&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
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Polling Data
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>09/05 - 09/16</td><td>--</td><td>49.4</td><td>44.4</td><td class="spread">McCain +5.0</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CNN/Time</td><td>09/14 - 09/16</td><td>907 RV</td><td>48</td><td>48</td><td class="spread">Tie</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">FOX News/Rasmussen</td><td>09/14 - 09/14</td><td>500 LV</td><td>49</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">McCain +5</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">InAdv/PollPosition</td><td>09/10 - 09/10</td><td>511 LV</td><td>50</td><td>42</td><td class="spread">McCain +8</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Quinnipiac</td><td>09/05 - 09/09</td><td>1032 LV</td><td>50</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">McCain +7</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">PPP (D)</td><td>09/06 - 09/07</td><td>986 LV</td><td>50</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">McCain +5</td></tr></tbody></table>See All Florida: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for Florida: McCain vs. Obama
<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th> </th><th>McCain</th><th>Obama</th><th> </th></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Intrade Real Time Quotes</td><td><iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=417866&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" scrolling="no" width="35" frameborder="0" height="17"></iframe>
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IMO its the opposite. I read somewhere Independants are breaking for Mccain at higher clip then Obama, but Mccain needs to be winning by 1-2% if he is going to win that state/overall election.
1. Younger vote. We often hear this, but polls don't take into consideration people with only cellphones. Certaintly people with no landlines/younger people will BREAK for Obama heavy. In addition alot of younger voters aren't included in these polls because its often "likely" voters that are polled. This year they'll be record turnout, so this favors Obama.
1b. Alot of states have same day registration. This will favor Obama as alot of new voters will be breaking for Obama.
2. Obama ground game is MUCH better then Mccain. Traditionally this is where the dems lose. But this year they will be getting out the vote like never before. I read somewhere this alone will be giving Obama 1-2% in votes.
3. Mccain will lose votes to Barr in key western states/florida. There are certain republicans, although very small, that certaintly won't vote for Dems, but aren't swayed by the christian wing of the reps. As illustrated by support of Ron Paul, who endorsed Barr I believe. Current polling doesn't show 3rd party votes.
It's close in a lot of places. Could be a wild and wooly election day.
Markets say that the tightest races are in Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Ultimately, I don't think North Carolina, Indiana, Florida or Missouri are in play....and likewise I don't think Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota are in play either.
This race is won and lost in Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13), and Obama needs 14 to tie and 15 to win from this basket of states comprising 56 EV's. If you want to take Ohio out of the mix, then Obama needs 14/15 of the remaining 36. There is also possibly 1 EV in Nebraska in play for Obama.
It's also pretty easy to find a whole bunch of ways to a 269 tie. It is not as impossible as people might think.
Markets say that the tightest races are in Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Ultimately, I don't think North Carolina, Indiana, Florida or Missouri are in play....and likewise I don't think Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota are in play either.
This race is won and lost in Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (20) and Virginia (13), and Obama needs 14 to tie and 15 to win from this basket of states comprising 56 EV's. If you want to take Ohio out of the mix, then Obama needs 14/15 of the remaining 36. There is also possibly 1 EV in Nebraska in play for Obama.
It's also pretty easy to find a whole bunch of ways to a 269 tie. It is not as impossible as people might think.
Actually is not alot. I was thinking of NC/Virginia, but i guess virginia doesnt allowed it.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Maine and New Hampshire allow same day registration. Of those Wisconsin/Minnesota are the only two that are going to matter. And it does favor Obama holding those states.
Also North Carolina has something similiar. I think you can register 3-19 days BEFORE the 4th, and at the same time VOTE. so basically you can register and vote 3 days early. i saw somewhere that NC has 500,000 blacks that are STILL not registered, and if the race is +1 only then obama can easily win if he can get 10% of those blacks to register/vote early. plus nc has so many colleges, which tend to break for obama, all he has to do is be within 3-4% before the vote day, and i think he can pull it out.
