These two teams are heading in different directions. The suspect FSU secondary will get exposed... Leak has been on fire as of late(6 tds last game in 20mph winds. vs. the cocks.) The Florida defense has been playing better as well. We don't even need to talk about FSU's offense... it can't get out of it's own way. IF and this is a big IF Florida can stop the run or least contain it enough, they will win outright. Florida has not won in Tally since 1981 I think. But going on the road never seems to phase Leak.(this is his first trip to Tally) Last year's game as well as the last regular season game for Zook will spark the emotion for the hungry Florida players.
The Ron Zook factor
Although I play mostly mid-major conference games, I have been on Florida every since I heard that Ron Zook was fired, but will remain coach until the end of the season. College kids, as opposed to pros, don't get to pick the coach and they tend to rally around him more than a pro team would. And don't these Florida/Florida State games always end on a missed FG by FSU anyway?
So I'll definitely be taking UF +6, along with Akron +8 as my top plays.
Although I play mostly mid-major conference games, I have been on Florida every since I heard that Ron Zook was fired, but will remain coach until the end of the season. College kids, as opposed to pros, don't get to pick the coach and they tend to rally around him more than a pro team would. And don't these Florida/Florida State games always end on a missed FG by FSU anyway?
So I'll definitely be taking UF +6, along with Akron +8 as my top plays.
This game has 24-20(or 21) written all over it. Regardless of who wins.... You know which side to take 
Just so you know though... Florida is an awful 4th qtr team and there are two big trends that favor FSU
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(75-36 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(43-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.4%)
They're essentially the same system... One is home or away and one is specifically away.
Florida is banged up on defense and they'll have to run the ball with Fason only as Wynn is out.
Just so you know though... Florida is an awful 4th qtr team and there are two big trends that favor FSU
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(75-36 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(43-14 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.4%)
They're essentially the same system... One is home or away and one is specifically away.
Florida is banged up on defense and they'll have to run the ball with Fason only as Wynn is out.
Some insight into this game from
a guy who has been going to FSU games since I was 2, I go to FSU now, and I read everything I can.
I'd like to address the FSU defense. The Best defense in the nation. Travis Johnson was once the #1 defensive recruit in the country. After 3 leg surgeries, and some work on his back, many thought he would quit. He came back strong last year, and this year has been absolutely unblockable, the best defensive tackle I have seen outside of USC. I remember another kid like that. Near the top of the country in recruiting rankings, multiple injuries, the talent was always there for Corey Simon, but he needed the health to do it. This D-Line is incredible. Eric Moore is excellent off the edge, and Brunkley is a 325LB space eater in the Sam Adams (think Ravens '00) mold.
The secondary is also solid. Anyone who has watched this team this year on television can vouch for that. Cromartie, at 6-5 shuts down recievers like a nuclear metldown. The speed of their saftey's allows FSU to do some incredible things. But neither unit compares to the core of this defense
THE DOOMSQUAD. Literally this is the best set of linebackers I have ever seen, uncluding the '93 National Championship team with Derrick Brooks and Cowart and Marvin jones. These guys are just so incredibly fast it is sick. I had class with Ernie Sims this past semester and we hung out a little. The mans neck is literally bigger than his head. He ran a 4.32 this summer. Thats right, a 4.32 linebacker. Nicholson isn't as instinctive as Sims, but he is excellent, especialy against the run. Buster Davis is the man in the middle that doest miss assignents, and allow others to freerange.
This defense has allowed 6 TD's all year, and out of those only 3 have been on drives of 65+ yards. That is ridiculous. They just dont give up scores. The most points they have allowed in a game is 17.
I would seriously advise anyone betting against FSU in the Doak to reconsider. This will be the best crowd all year. People outside of the I-10 florida range dont realize the magnitude of this matchup. Im currently wearing a bank that entitles me to "All you can drink for 20 bucks tonight till gametime". We are having 20 kegs for the game. Usually we have 8 or 9. Florida is not a mentally tough team, and they will struggle. Tickets are going for $300, student tix for about 250, and you can bet that it will be only diehard fans in the stands. Most sorority chicks i know have hawked theirs for the cash,a nd if your pying that you want to go bad. Literally this place will be insane. I think the proper bet in this game is under, although I am laying off altogether. Think about it.
Oh, an injury update; FSU is the healthiest they have been. Keep in mind that they are coming off of a thursday game, and uf is coming off a sat night game. thats 2 extra days for FSU to prep and restup. FSU will win this game.
a guy who has been going to FSU games since I was 2, I go to FSU now, and I read everything I can.
I'd like to address the FSU defense. The Best defense in the nation. Travis Johnson was once the #1 defensive recruit in the country. After 3 leg surgeries, and some work on his back, many thought he would quit. He came back strong last year, and this year has been absolutely unblockable, the best defensive tackle I have seen outside of USC. I remember another kid like that. Near the top of the country in recruiting rankings, multiple injuries, the talent was always there for Corey Simon, but he needed the health to do it. This D-Line is incredible. Eric Moore is excellent off the edge, and Brunkley is a 325LB space eater in the Sam Adams (think Ravens '00) mold.
The secondary is also solid. Anyone who has watched this team this year on television can vouch for that. Cromartie, at 6-5 shuts down recievers like a nuclear metldown. The speed of their saftey's allows FSU to do some incredible things. But neither unit compares to the core of this defense
THE DOOMSQUAD. Literally this is the best set of linebackers I have ever seen, uncluding the '93 National Championship team with Derrick Brooks and Cowart and Marvin jones. These guys are just so incredibly fast it is sick. I had class with Ernie Sims this past semester and we hung out a little. The mans neck is literally bigger than his head. He ran a 4.32 this summer. Thats right, a 4.32 linebacker. Nicholson isn't as instinctive as Sims, but he is excellent, especialy against the run. Buster Davis is the man in the middle that doest miss assignents, and allow others to freerange.
This defense has allowed 6 TD's all year, and out of those only 3 have been on drives of 65+ yards. That is ridiculous. They just dont give up scores. The most points they have allowed in a game is 17.
I would seriously advise anyone betting against FSU in the Doak to reconsider. This will be the best crowd all year. People outside of the I-10 florida range dont realize the magnitude of this matchup. Im currently wearing a bank that entitles me to "All you can drink for 20 bucks tonight till gametime". We are having 20 kegs for the game. Usually we have 8 or 9. Florida is not a mentally tough team, and they will struggle. Tickets are going for $300, student tix for about 250, and you can bet that it will be only diehard fans in the stands. Most sorority chicks i know have hawked theirs for the cash,a nd if your pying that you want to go bad. Literally this place will be insane. I think the proper bet in this game is under, although I am laying off altogether. Think about it.
Oh, an injury update; FSU is the healthiest they have been. Keep in mind that they are coming off of a thursday game, and uf is coming off a sat night game. thats 2 extra days for FSU to prep and restup. FSU will win this game.
Budworth22 said:
They give up more yards than UF through the air. UF has a very inexperienced secondary as well but it's done a better job against better competition. Watch the Wake/FSU game and you'll see exactly what I mean... FSU does not have the best defense in the country, that statement is flat out ludicrous! Yes they stop the run well but so does UGA and UF ran for over 200 yards on them. Wynn is not out, he is listed as "?"... Fason and don't forget about Skyler Thornton(the next emmit.) Big news on defense for UF as Channing Crowder will be back... UF should have won this game by 40 last year(that was the worst officiated game I've ever seen.) If you lay points with this anemic offense that's just as good as throwing money out the window. Florida +7 and Oregon +4 are my two top plays this weekend.
One more quick thought.
UF leads the SEC in:
Total offense
Passing offense
3rd down conversion %(this is huge on the road!)
The leading receiver in yards
the leading QB in yards and TD's and completion%
and as Zook said "the first coaching staff to get fired."
UF has lost by 2(at Tennessee on another blown call)... 3(home against LSU)
7(At miss. st.) 7(against UGA in Jax)
they never get blown out and there is now way it's happening this weekend. The players absolutely LOVE Zook and they want to send him out a winner. Uf comes in with a much bigger chip on their shoulder as aforementioned from last year.
This is a lock boys.(hate that word just like the next guy, but the truth will set you free!!)
UF leads the SEC in:
Total offense
Passing offense
3rd down conversion %(this is huge on the road!)
The leading receiver in yards
the leading QB in yards and TD's and completion%
and as Zook said "the first coaching staff to get fired."
UF has lost by 2(at Tennessee on another blown call)... 3(home against LSU)
7(At miss. st.) 7(against UGA in Jax)
they never get blown out and there is now way it's happening this weekend. The players absolutely LOVE Zook and they want to send him out a winner. Uf comes in with a much bigger chip on their shoulder as aforementioned from last year.
This is a lock boys.(hate that word just like the next guy, but the truth will set you free!!)
simple pattern that deserves respect....
I rarely post but have been around this forum for years.... the only way I would consider this game is with Florida State and here is why.... a very simple pattern that holds up well in college football is to take any home team with a defense that is considerably better than the last two defenses the visiting opponent has faced... forget the ats, scores, stats, etc., The defensive gap between Florida's last two ops to Florida State is not quite as large as I like to see in this situation... but real none-the-less. This may seem over simplistic but it pointed to the home teams of Fresno, Georgia Tech, Tx A&M, Notre Dame, Auburn, Purdue, Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, LSU, USC and Florida Atlantic this past week.... yielding nine covers and three failures.... go back and look it up.... previous weeks have predicted fairly well also... I agree with the arguments presented in this thread about the recent preformances of these two teams.... but I have to warn you if you constantly go against this little pattern it will sting!
Good luck,
Hogjawl
I rarely post but have been around this forum for years.... the only way I would consider this game is with Florida State and here is why.... a very simple pattern that holds up well in college football is to take any home team with a defense that is considerably better than the last two defenses the visiting opponent has faced... forget the ats, scores, stats, etc., The defensive gap between Florida's last two ops to Florida State is not quite as large as I like to see in this situation... but real none-the-less. This may seem over simplistic but it pointed to the home teams of Fresno, Georgia Tech, Tx A&M, Notre Dame, Auburn, Purdue, Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, LSU, USC and Florida Atlantic this past week.... yielding nine covers and three failures.... go back and look it up.... previous weeks have predicted fairly well also... I agree with the arguments presented in this thread about the recent preformances of these two teams.... but I have to warn you if you constantly go against this little pattern it will sting!
Good luck,
Hogjawl
That's very true... However, our job as cappers is to pick each game apart individually. There are a lot of great systems out there, I know, but in this case yes FSU has a great RUN defense. They are giving up 200 yards through the air though. UF is 13th in the nation in passing offense. This secondary will be victimized. Guaranteed!
