Personal opinion from 20 years of observing cappers (people) on internet forums and their values, philosophies, methods, etc.
Handicapping is not a competition as everybody is different in their motivation to win, how much time they have to spend on capping, how skilled they are, what kind of information is available to them and what they're looking to get out of capping. I get it, most people are just gambling here and don't take it too serious and that's why the oddsmakers have the best of it.
But it is what it is and, for what it's worth, it creates what I see are 5 levels of football cappers that the books are up against and I break it down in 3% increments of TRUE, long-term winning percentage based on thousands of games by the time your career is over at standard -110 odds. Uncappable events such as poor officiating, a bad bounce of the ball, or an untimely holding or pass interference penalty will probably prevent anyone from reaching 60% ATS over thousands of games. Only the best of the best will even come close to that in this era of tight lines and abundant information.
This, of course, is all assuming you've done your own work to create your picks and not using anyone else's picks. This is meant to measure the quality of YOUR handicapping, meaning some type of TEAM analysis. It is based strictly on winning percentage at -110 and does not take into account any form of money management. It also assumes you TRACK your win-loss record year after year to accurately know what it truly is rather than "guessing". Most posters do not do any record keeping and are left to guess as are those following such a capper. If you track an accurate record each year and accumulate a minimum of 1000 games at roughly -110 odds, you will find which category you fit into. 500 games barely starts to give you a rough idea of your true winning percentage so 1000 or more is a truer representation.
Level 5 / 57-59% The elite NFL capper. Not a large group here. Much less than 1% of all posters on internet boards because most of these guys would not post in the first place. A very select group. These guys have tried and true methods down pat. They devote a large part of their life to handicapping and don't ever stop trying to improve, constantly adjusting to the market changes. Requires a very high IQ if you are building prediction models to formulate your own information. They don't stray too much, if at all, from a formula that undoubtedly identifies value against the line. Very disciplined and machine-like. They shop for the best lines, don't chase, can lay off the primetime games or Super Bowl with no problem if they don't see value. It's business and all about winning, not ever about a "rush" or "high" from having action on a game. Their unit amounts are well calculated and consistent. They almost never make mistakes and use multiple strategies to indentify the teams that "should" win. Possible line movers.
Level 4 / 54-56% Still a fairly exclusive club as this is not easy and requires hard work that most people are unwilling or unable to do. If you can honestly hit in this point spread range over a minimum of 1000 wagers at -110 odds then you are doing something right. These are cappers that know what they're doing and achieve a strong enough ROI that they can make a living with a proper bankroll. Maybe 2-3% of all internet posters, if that. Dedicated to winning, disciplined, and a proven method that consistently outperforms the number. Usually show a profit at the end of most years. They're not perfect in their approach and philosophies but pretty darn close. Reaching this level over thousands of games is an accomplishment to be very proud of.
Level 3 / 51-53% A much wider and more diverse category that accounts for maybe 15-25% of all posters. These are the people that either put in some legitimate effort and have a decent feel for the league but their analysis could be a little stronger or they bet too many games (including most primetime games and playoff games) and lose value or they scour other people's opinions and compare it to their opinions and go on that. Either way, it makes them competitive enough that they'll garner a certain level of respect from the 75% of cappers that have no prayer of winning. They'll have some good years over the course of their career but overall will unfortunately succumb to the vig when it's all said and done. These are probably the most frustrated NFL cappers because they are above average and have some decent insight but haven't gone to that next level of analysis and discipline that will make them a winner long term.
Level 2 / 48-50% This is the most populated category accounting for probably 65-75% of all internet posters that pick their own games and obviously the bulk of where books get their money. Considering you can theoretically flip a coin and hit 50% by not even looking at the teams or the lines, if a capper is below that coin flip line there's a great chance they're picking teams in bad spots or against bad lines, mainly overpriced favorites. This capper is not doing much handicapping or doing poor capping that needs to be fixed. A level of analysis or insight that is just inferior enough to the oddsmakers that it falls victim to lines that are shaded against it. This capper probably plays too many games, doesn't shop for value, and is in this for a hobby whether they like it or not. These cappers can be the typical gambler that is in it for the "rush" and they often get persuaded by overconfidence if they are winning or the need to chase if they are losing, both feelings that encourage this capper to bet more games that don't have value. Nothing to be ashamed of, though, as you are in the vast majority.
Level 1 / 47% or less This is a very interesting category in my opinion. Around 10% of posters will be in the high end of this level; around 47%, but if you hit less than 47% you are almost as rare as the elite cappers because you may have a method that identifies losers. This capper could actually do a fair amount of capping but is on the polar opposite end of the winning cappers by having a knack of spotting teams in terrible situations combined with playing into terrible lines. Very likely a steady diet of popular favorites that happen to be due for a letdown or up against a hungry opponent. Not as easy as it sounds to pull off. As a result, these people are part of the roughly 2-3% of valuable cappers out there only as a "go against" or fade capper.
Handicapping is not a competition as everybody is different in their motivation to win, how much time they have to spend on capping, how skilled they are, what kind of information is available to them and what they're looking to get out of capping. I get it, most people are just gambling here and don't take it too serious and that's why the oddsmakers have the best of it.
But it is what it is and, for what it's worth, it creates what I see are 5 levels of football cappers that the books are up against and I break it down in 3% increments of TRUE, long-term winning percentage based on thousands of games by the time your career is over at standard -110 odds. Uncappable events such as poor officiating, a bad bounce of the ball, or an untimely holding or pass interference penalty will probably prevent anyone from reaching 60% ATS over thousands of games. Only the best of the best will even come close to that in this era of tight lines and abundant information.
This, of course, is all assuming you've done your own work to create your picks and not using anyone else's picks. This is meant to measure the quality of YOUR handicapping, meaning some type of TEAM analysis. It is based strictly on winning percentage at -110 and does not take into account any form of money management. It also assumes you TRACK your win-loss record year after year to accurately know what it truly is rather than "guessing". Most posters do not do any record keeping and are left to guess as are those following such a capper. If you track an accurate record each year and accumulate a minimum of 1000 games at roughly -110 odds, you will find which category you fit into. 500 games barely starts to give you a rough idea of your true winning percentage so 1000 or more is a truer representation.
Level 5 / 57-59% The elite NFL capper. Not a large group here. Much less than 1% of all posters on internet boards because most of these guys would not post in the first place. A very select group. These guys have tried and true methods down pat. They devote a large part of their life to handicapping and don't ever stop trying to improve, constantly adjusting to the market changes. Requires a very high IQ if you are building prediction models to formulate your own information. They don't stray too much, if at all, from a formula that undoubtedly identifies value against the line. Very disciplined and machine-like. They shop for the best lines, don't chase, can lay off the primetime games or Super Bowl with no problem if they don't see value. It's business and all about winning, not ever about a "rush" or "high" from having action on a game. Their unit amounts are well calculated and consistent. They almost never make mistakes and use multiple strategies to indentify the teams that "should" win. Possible line movers.
Level 4 / 54-56% Still a fairly exclusive club as this is not easy and requires hard work that most people are unwilling or unable to do. If you can honestly hit in this point spread range over a minimum of 1000 wagers at -110 odds then you are doing something right. These are cappers that know what they're doing and achieve a strong enough ROI that they can make a living with a proper bankroll. Maybe 2-3% of all internet posters, if that. Dedicated to winning, disciplined, and a proven method that consistently outperforms the number. Usually show a profit at the end of most years. They're not perfect in their approach and philosophies but pretty darn close. Reaching this level over thousands of games is an accomplishment to be very proud of.
Level 3 / 51-53% A much wider and more diverse category that accounts for maybe 15-25% of all posters. These are the people that either put in some legitimate effort and have a decent feel for the league but their analysis could be a little stronger or they bet too many games (including most primetime games and playoff games) and lose value or they scour other people's opinions and compare it to their opinions and go on that. Either way, it makes them competitive enough that they'll garner a certain level of respect from the 75% of cappers that have no prayer of winning. They'll have some good years over the course of their career but overall will unfortunately succumb to the vig when it's all said and done. These are probably the most frustrated NFL cappers because they are above average and have some decent insight but haven't gone to that next level of analysis and discipline that will make them a winner long term.
Level 2 / 48-50% This is the most populated category accounting for probably 65-75% of all internet posters that pick their own games and obviously the bulk of where books get their money. Considering you can theoretically flip a coin and hit 50% by not even looking at the teams or the lines, if a capper is below that coin flip line there's a great chance they're picking teams in bad spots or against bad lines, mainly overpriced favorites. This capper is not doing much handicapping or doing poor capping that needs to be fixed. A level of analysis or insight that is just inferior enough to the oddsmakers that it falls victim to lines that are shaded against it. This capper probably plays too many games, doesn't shop for value, and is in this for a hobby whether they like it or not. These cappers can be the typical gambler that is in it for the "rush" and they often get persuaded by overconfidence if they are winning or the need to chase if they are losing, both feelings that encourage this capper to bet more games that don't have value. Nothing to be ashamed of, though, as you are in the vast majority.
Level 1 / 47% or less This is a very interesting category in my opinion. Around 10% of posters will be in the high end of this level; around 47%, but if you hit less than 47% you are almost as rare as the elite cappers because you may have a method that identifies losers. This capper could actually do a fair amount of capping but is on the polar opposite end of the winning cappers by having a knack of spotting teams in terrible situations combined with playing into terrible lines. Very likely a steady diet of popular favorites that happen to be due for a letdown or up against a hungry opponent. Not as easy as it sounds to pull off. As a result, these people are part of the roughly 2-3% of valuable cappers out there only as a "go against" or fade capper.
