First pick for Divisional round of playoffs....AFC teaser

[i'mshockedshocked]

3-1 for wild card weekend.

For divisional round I have the following play so far:


2 gm 6 pt teaser w NE-1 and Denver -1. Bet -120 to make 100.


I would never list a teaser as a play during the regular season ...only in the playoffs when I'm highly confident on a team to win outright,but less so against the spread.I think form holds better in the playoffs than in the regular season , where any team could lose a game on any given weekend.. in the playoffs the better team wins. Because teams hold their form better in the playoffs ,I am willing to consider betting teasers where I can bring the line down to essentially pk em.

Given lots of heavy chalk this weekend I really think the best bet is for both of the AFC favorites to win their games outright.

Baltimore has had New England's number for the past few years but I just don't see New England losing this time around . New England has been,week in and week out ,after the Kansas City game, the best team in the NFL. They are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year.


Indy will turn the ball over too many times to beat Denver.

Rodgers' calf remains a big factor in the Green Bay game , and the game may just be too risky to bet heavily considering that if he goes down, they likely lose to Dallas. If he stays healthy, I think Green Bay -6 is a good play, but will post later in week when Rodgers status is clearer.


so for now the only play is the New England /Denver teaser at-1 each

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

While I tend to agree with your play and analysis. I find it surprising you left out SEA here, they are the strongest ML/PK play of the week of course, but maybe you left them out because of the juice/value on ML. SEA > NE > DEN > GB would be how I have it in terms of strength to win moneyline.

Lots of people will helplessly be on the Ravens because of the past. It's funny because they don't even look at the team the Patriots have assembled this year, and they basically have 1 loss this year against the Packers (the losses without Browner and Chandler Jones and others on D is not relevant to this game IMO).

With the key components in place NE is basically 13-1 this year. Gronk dropped a catchable TD (by his standards) against the pack, before Brady was sacked to end that comeback effort. If he caught it NE would be undefeated 14-0 at full strength this year (or close to it). The reason for this is the defense.

Revis and Browner outside with McCourty and Chung at safeties has given Bill tons of leeway on what he can do with that defense. The LB core is coming around now Jamie Collins playing out of his mind this year, Hightower rock solid, Chandler Jones the sack machine back and healthy. Wilfork Ninkovich and co pluggin up the run. Of course Bill scheming as well to stop teams.

Revis on SS? Revis.

Browner on Torrey? Browner.

the front 7 of NE + the two safeties + Bill's scheming v. Forsett and a shotty run blocking line doesn't bode well for BAL. The best chance BAL has is by causing some turnovers and playing great defensively. Issue is the secondary is quite terrible beyond Webb, and no one can cover Gronk. Pats should not only win SU but cover.

my heavy play will be on NE/SEA ML probably for like 1000 , though it only pays like 650 if I'm not mistaken.

 

[MedicalMaryJ]

OP, you say you are worried about rodgers calf. While that is certainly a concern, so is Tony Romos back. Did u see him throw the rock in the first half? Nothing zipped out of his hand, balls were under thrown ALOT. Did it really take a whole half to warm his back up? My point is there are issues health wise with both quarterbacks. I feel more comfortable with AR because his arm can overcome a lower leg injury. A back.. Not so much. I lean GB just on health wise of QB.
Prince City, agree on New England. Only thing is Browner isnt always > Smith. Browner is a 4.5x guy.. Feel like Torry can zoom past him on fly's and posts.. Only thing that worries me. Ravens run hard to predict but overall who has Gronk? And when it comes to 3rd downs who you want?
You want Tom. I bet NE had some tricks for Denver but I would imagine bill may bring them out for this game if he needs to. Don't forget about the circus that is NFL! NE is a popular team, lol!

 

[texansfan]

If Bal can keep the pressure on Brady they can keep it close and perhaps win. Of course this is true for all QB's, but pressure can make even the best offenses seem average. Look at NE when they lost the the Giants in both SB's. The defense won both of those games, even when NE came into the game at 18-0.

I don't worry about how a team played throughout the season, but rather how they're playing entering the playoffs. I know NE is damn good and is rested, but I think it comes down to the defense of Bal versus the offense of the Pats.

I know I stated the obvious here, but I still think it's important.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

While I tend to agree with your play and analysis. I find it surprising you left out SEA here, they are the strongest ML/PK play of the week of course, but maybe you left them out because of the juice/value on ML. SEA > NE > DEN > GB would be how I have it in terms of strength to win moneyline.

Lots of people will helplessly be on the Ravens because of the past. It's funny because they don't even look at the team the Patriots have assembled this year, and they basically have 1 loss this year against the Packers (the losses without Browner and Chandler Jones and others on D is not relevant to this game IMO).

With the key components in place NE is basically 13-1 this year. Gronk dropped a catchable TD (by his standards) against the pack, before Brady was sacked to end that comeback effort. If he caught it NE would be undefeated 14-0 at full strength this year (or close to it). The reason for this is the defense.

Revis and Browner outside with McCourty and Chung at safeties has given Bill tons of leeway on what he can do with that defense. The LB core is coming around now Jamie Collins playing out of his mind this year, Hightower rock solid, Chandler Jones the sack machine back and healthy. Wilfork Ninkovich and co pluggin up the run. Of course Bill scheming as well to stop teams.

Revis on SS? Revis.

Browner on Torrey? Browner.

the front 7 of NE + the two safeties + Bill's scheming v. Forsett and a shotty run blocking line doesn't bode well for BAL. The best chance BAL has is by causing some turnovers and playing great defensively. Issue is the secondary is quite terrible beyond Webb, and no one can cover Gronk. Pats should not only win SU but cover.

my heavy play will be on NE/SEA ML probably for like 1000 , though it only pays like 650 if I'm not mistaken.

I think NE/SEA is the ML combo to play. If any home teams lose this weekend, big IF, it won't be those two.

 

[JJphilly]

Love this tease as I already put it in myself along with combinations with packers..I have a weird feeling tho as vegas has these lines 7 and less which looks very easy for every1 to just do a tease and expect each favorite to win by 2 or less..Therefore I believe there will b a upset,as a dog wins SU, just not sure who yet..most likely though if u can just pick the winner SU, the percentage is u will cover ATS

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

Final Picks for Division Round:

I already posted the NE -1/Den -1 teaser. To those who would go w Seattle instead, i would say that this is a 6 pt teaser and i dont like taking the line down to just -4.5 from -10.5. if i am going to go to the trouble of playing a teaser, i want the line to be basically at PK.

I am now posting my straight plays, in order of preference. Bottom line, I like 3 of the 4 FAVORITES to cover ,especially the AFC games.

Square you might say, but the public consensus backing of the favorites is very low this weekend, ranging from 55% backing of Seattle as the highest consensus, to just 46% backing NE. So i certainly dont feel that i am chasing public favorites. Instead, i think that the public is being suckered in by nice 7+ point spreads into taking the much inferior team in each of the four divisional games. It should also be noted that the favorites in the divisional round historically cover at a 57% clip, which is higher than in any other playoff round and certainly higher than in the regular season. Although i am posting these games now at the lines prevailing, just to get my picks out early, i am going to wait to see if the line comes down to -6.5 for the NE and Den games, which i am hoping it does, given the very weak public consensus on all of these heavy favorites.

1.) NE(-7) vs Balt. If i am correct that this is NE's year for SB win, then they have to start strong against foe that has beaten them in recent past. if it weren't for Baltimore and the NYG, NE might have 3 or 4 more SB victories in the past decade, and this may be their final shot being so healthy all around. With all the players healthy, this is the right time for them. No other team has blown out top competition the way NE has handled Denver, Cincinnati, Indy, Detroit. They havent played a bad game since KC loss. You're getting value cause they ended season with meaningless loss, and barely beat NYJ in second to last. But they always have trouble w the NYJs.

2.) DEN(-7) vs Indy Denver favored by basically the same amount they were vs Indy in regular season game which they won by 7. Denver has had a brutal schedule and handled it well. Their defense will be the difference maker here. Indy needs more discipline...give them another year to get things together. This year sets up for me as perhaps the final run for brady and manning and it would be a classic for them to face each other one more time next weekend, and i think that will happen.

3.) SEAT(-10.5) vs Car. Hate giving double digits of course, and i bet all the picks here by others wind up on Carolina, cause people can't stand laying double digits, but i expect many interceptions of Cam Newton and that will be that.

4.) Dall(+6) vs GB. If Rodgers were 100%, this would be a GB pick. I would not bet much on this game...Rodgers is the most important QB to his team's prospects, and if he cant play well, GB loses. I am taking Dallas cause even with Rodgers at 100%, Dallas has a shot, and without him playing well, Dallas is quite likely to win. So with the injury uncertainty, i think the odds favor Dallas.

 

[sdf]

i couldnt tease NE. Balt 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU (the loss coming on a easy missed FG) vs NE in the playoffs. All with Flacco/Harbaugh. All within the past 4 years. All in Foxboro. NE has to prove to me they can truly be a badass team and beat up on the Ravens before I bet on them. Some teams just have other teams' numbers. It's why the Jets always seem to play NE close even though the NE appears to be the superior team.

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

i couldnt tease NE. Balt 3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU (the loss coming on a easy missed FG) vs NE in the playoffs. All with Flacco/Harbaugh. All within the past 4 years. All in Foxboro. NE has to prove to me they can truly be a badass team and beat up on the Ravens before I bet on them. Some teams just have other teams' numbers. It's why the Jets always seem to play NE close even though the NE appears to be the superior team.

Don't say you weren't warned brotha. What is good about this Ravens team? The pass rush I would say, the Quarterback, and the running back can run a little bit, good coach as well.

The pass rush?

All i have to say is look at the three games the Patriots played at home this year, versus teams with BETTER pass rushes than the Ravens, BETTER overall defenses, and even better offenses...

Denver, Detroit, and Miami (who arguably has the best pass rush when all healthy) all lost by an average of 25 points, and all lost in blow out dominant fashion.
All three teams are very good, the first two being clearly on a higher level than the Ravens this year. Miami would have made the playoffs instead of the BAL had BAL lost the last week. Anyway the Patriots clearly figured out how to protect Brady v. a great pass rush after that debacle v. KC in the first month of the season.


Next Flacco won't have anyone to throw to most of the game. Smith and Smith will be shackled by Revis and Browner most of the game, they may get open here and there but not much. On top of that Jamie Collins is definitely a top 5 cover LB in the league, he's a complete player - he will take away OD the TE who has been getting loose.

Next Forsett had a good year this year but slowed considerably past few weeks, less about him than it is about the NE run D. 3.9 YPC for the year however 3.4 YPC down the stretch here. Really tightening it up.

There is simply not much Flacco/Harbaugh can do with the severe disadvantage they are at in this game. On the road, against a team that is far superior on all 3 phases, and is on a mission. The Ravens already accomplished their mission last week in winning @ PIT, in a huge playoff game, night road game. This NE team has been waiting years for this moment, millions spent, tons of draft picks spent on that defense just so that they can get homefield advantage for this playoff run.

Patriots -7
Patriots ML

certified both ways: I didn't even mention the huge psychological advantage the Patriots have in this being a HUGE revenge spot for them, and a let down spot (a little bit) for the Ravens - though I still think Ravens play a good game as best they can I see Patriots covering and winning too lopsided of a match up.