*****First Night of a New System*****

[Deke101]

This is mainly based on stats, and then I factor in injuries to starters, and teams playing back to back. The team that is above is the road team as usual, and listed next to them is their rating for tonights game. And then I'll compare the numbers to the actual game spread which will give me the play for tonight. The higher the number does not indicate who is the best team in the league, it is just based on average statistics for home/road games. A perfect example for tonights games is that the Nets have generally been a good road team as far as stats go (7-4 record at home). And the Raptors have played well at home as well despite being 5-6 at home. I am also going to avoid playing against the leagues best home teams (Boston, Cleveland, LAL), and if the time is right, we may play against other top home teams such as Denver, Atlanta, Orlando, and Utah).

Charlotte -8.5
Atlanta +3.5

Play: Atlanta -8.5
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Indiana -1
Washington -11.2

Play: Indiana +1
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Nets +12.6
Raptors +14.0 (B2B)

Play: Over 202.5 (The line may go lower by game time)
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Utah -3.4 (Injury to Starter Carlos Boozer)
Boston -.5

Play: None (would be Jazz but we don't go against BOS at home)
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Milwaukee -11.6
Miami -16.3 (B2B)

Play: Milwaukee +4.5
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Denver -1.7
Dallas -2.6 (Injury to Starter Josh Smith)

Play: None (no advantage in either side)
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NY Knicks +1.6
Phoenix +7.4

Play: None (Knicks would be, but we will wait and see Phoenix's new line-up in action)
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Minnesota -6.7 (B2B)
Sacramento -15.1

Play: Minessota +4 (They have a solid advantage even while being on b2b)
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Orlando -5.8 (Injury to Starter Dwight Howard)
Golden State +.2 (Injury to Starter Corey Maggette, Sidenote - S. Jackson Questionable)

Play: Golden State +2.5 (If Stephen Jackson is sidelined, then this would still be a play, but not as strong)
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This is the first night I am trying this, but I am posting it tonight for anyone that is interested. Only 1 of tonights favorites has a solid advantage tonight, which is Atlanta, and that may be unpredictable based on Charlotte's new line-up tonight. Diaw is not good in the first place, and Raja Bell provides defense and some good 3-pt shooting.

Anyone on these same plays? Thoughts on these plays? I am interested in all comments.

 

[Deke101]

Plays that the majority of the public is on:

Atlanta -8.5 (63% of public)
Indiana +1 (59% of public, line has not moved yet either)
NJ/Tor o202.5 (73% of public)

Plays that the public is not favoring:

Bucks +4 (23% of public)
T'Wolves +4 (27% of public)
Warriors (7% of public)

The public generally loses. I will follow all of these plays, and I will split it into public plays and non-public plays as well to keep track of the record.


Team with the more positive rating, ATS: 0-0
Public Plays: 0-0
Non-Public Plays: 0-0
Total: 0-0

 

[GetThatPaper]

Look forward to see how this works out. Good luck man.

:toast:

 

[Deke101]

Update:

Indiana had a much better rating, and they were a strong play tonight.
Atlanta had just as good of rating, but I was skeptical that they would cover, and they didn't.
The NJ/Tor over didn't have much of a chance at any point in the game, and was a loss.
Milwaukee won pretty easily.

Pending:
Minnesota +4
GS +2.5

Both plays are OK right now, anything can happen.

Lean plays, ones that I did not consider good enough to play:

Utah +9 would have pushed.
Denver had the higher rating, and they managed to win by 10.
Knicks +9 would have covered.
I should have played the Nets rather than the over, as they had a rating that qualified for a play.

Overall I am impressed with a few of the plays, and I may try to add more criteria for the plays, as Indiana was a strong play since they had a nice double digit padding as far as rating went. I also liked Milwaukee a lot as they had the higher rating and were a dog as well. I wasn't sure how totals would fit into this system, I assumed that if two teams had high offensive numbers they could qualify for a play on the over, which the NJ/Tor game did - but I may scratch that idea and only play sides.

2-2 in qualified plays with Minnesota and Golden State are hanging in their as dogs, and its too early to tell.



I will continue this tomorrow and see how we do.

 

[Deke101]

Record:
Public Plays: 1-2
Non-Public Plays: 1-2
Combined: 2-4
Team with the more positive rating, ATS: 4-5

Rough Start to the first day, but we had a good awakening with Indiana and Milwaukee covering with ease as dogs. They had a much better rating than their opponent even as dogs. Minnesota also fit in with these two teams as well, and they started out the game great, and fell apart big time.

I am simplifying this and I will only make plays if the team is 7+ points higher than their opponent by rating differentialand spread combined. So then last night Indiana would have been a play because they were +1, and they had a higher rating by 10.2, therefore they were 11.2 higher. Milwaukee was getting 4.5 points last night, and their rating was 4.7 higher, therefore they were 9.2 higher. Minnesota was an even larger favorite with this criteria, but they laid an egg.

Tonights Match-up Ratings:

Chicago -3.1
Charlotte -33.4 (B2B, Missing Starter Gerald Wallace)

Play: Chicago -2
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LA Clippers -3.2
Oklahoma City -21.8 (Injury to Starter Chris Wilcox)

Play: LA Clippers -5
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New Orleans +8.4
Memphis -1.7

Play: None (With the spread being 7, this gives us an advantage of 3.1, which is lower than 7)
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If I have time to do the other three games with the strong home teams, I might. But I am almost sure that the ratings will come out for the home team to be rated MUCH stronger since they are strong home teams. I'll get to it soon.

 

[Deke101]

I am happy that the system spit out these two plays (Bulls and Clippers), as they are very strong in my opinion as well even without the proof of the system.

The issue with this system right now is that it is solely based on offense, and I have not put defensive stats into it yet. It just takes me a a little bit too much time to do, and sometimes I can't find the time to get it all done.

Here are the other plays:

Nuggets -1.7
Rockets -15.5 (Injury to Starter Rafer Alston)

Play: Nuggets +3 (This play qualifies strongly, but I noted that I would not play against tough home teams unless it was strong, so we will take a shot at it.)
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Kings -6.1 (B2B)
Blazers +9.3

Play: None (Blazers have the edge, but they have a rating that is 15.4 higher, the spread is 12.5, therefore the Blazers have an edge of 2.9, and it is not 7+ so no play)
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Knicks -3.4 (B2B)
LA Lakers +13.4

Play: None (Lakers have the edge, but not a big enough edge for me to play with this spread, as with the Blazers)
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*Bulls are off to a good start.

 

[Deke101]

First off, sorry to anyone who has been following or adding to their bets; I noted before that this is just a trial, and I will continue to tweak it until I find the best solution, and go from there. As we all know, the Public generally loses, and the plays that are coming out of this system have generally been public plays. I may consider figuring out which plays my system generates, and then fading them if they are public plays. If I had done that tonight, then I would have been 2-1, and also 2-1 last night. I think that if the system spits out a non-public play, then it will be played, and if the system spits out a public play I can fade it. I'll be sure to keep track of all the information on each play the next few days.

Bulls - Public - Loss
Clippers - Public - Win
Nuggets - Public - Loss
Lean - New Orleans - Public - Win/Push
Lean - Blazers - Non-Public - Win
Lean - Lakers - Public - Loss

Records:
Public: 2-4
Non-Public: 1-2
Team with higher rating, ATS: 7-8

Still not onto anything special, but I am making good progress, and it should be a winning system by the weekend. But I do like these road teams with much higher ratings. I will continue to follow these teams, everything has looked good except for final scores. I'll keep tweaking it.

 

[voluntas]

Where can I get the % information ?

 

[Deke101]

Where can I get the % information ?

Are you referring to the percentage of the public that is on each side, money line, and total?

If so, I just use http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/matchups/

That is for NBA, and the other sports are there as well if you go to their match-ups.

 

[Deke101]

Milwaukee -11.3
Philadelphia -13

Play: None
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Boston +6.4
Atlanta +3.4

Play None
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Dallas +5.2
Toronto +19.0

Play: Toronto +2.5 (10% of Public)
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Golden State -6.7
Indiana +2.2

Play: None
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Washington -2.3
Pistons +1.6

Play: None
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Utah -1.4 (Boozer Game-time decision)
New Jersey -11.2

Play: Utah -2.5 (ONLY if Boozer plays, otherwise it is a no play; 74% of Public)
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Cleveland -6.7 (Injury to Starter Z. Ilgauskas)
Minnesota -25.7

Play: Cleveland -10 (96% of Public)
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LA Clippers -3.1
Chicago +4.9

Play: None
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San Antonio +21.5
New Orleans +12.2

Play: Spurs +3 (53% of Public)
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Again, we have some pretty public plays, which is what I expect most of the time.

 

[Deke101]

I forgot to mention which teams are on Back to Back, which are the Hornets, Clippers, and Bulls, which will not effect anything other than the Spurs being a much better play than they were already.