First Go

[croaker]

Hi

This will be my first go at posting picks.

I'm pretty new to this and am only a small fish so don't rely on my pics.

I have no special knowledge or powers, but like reading Football Outsiders, SportsInsights and SportsReporter.

Sports betting is entertainment for me but I will be happy if I can make small profit and have some fun along the way. I'm probably more square than sharp.

My basic strategy is to look for value bets eg like Patriots last week at Denver. In my opinion the value was created by Patriots poor record at Mile High inflating the odds for NE above true value. I don't think the what happened 3 years ago has any impact on the outcome of a game today.

I've had a pretty good run this year and have decided to post on here to impose some discipline and to avoid losing with random spur of the moment bets as I tend to do when I get a few dollars in my online account. I would like to be able to withdraw before the Superbowl and maybe buy a new laptop or something similar.


1. So far I'm on Denver ML +1.60 1 unit. Have taken it now because I worried that the line may move further against me as the week progresses. I will be happy to add to this in game should KC be first to score. Up to 3 units total for this game. I have noticed that first couple of series are not indicative of how the whole game will play out.

IMO KC is over rated despite their good record, and Denver is a little bit underrated as they don't have a stud QB, so I see the game as pretty even taking into account a few points for home field for KC. So the 160 looks good.

Like Jets to cover ATS vs Pats if the line goes to 17 or better, or if they switch QBs to Fitzpatric. Jets were crushing the Dolphins last week in terms of yards at half time. If they can repeat that for a full game they should easily cover. But no bet yet. I am a Jets fan but have no problem betting against them.


I will also do a couple of parlays with 2-4 teams but will wait until closer to game day for these.

 

[croaker]

Eagles tonight ML +100 1 unit.

Everyone seems to be on NY and but the line keeps moving down, even without knowing much about the teams it looks like obvious value.

Also goes with my theory that to win with sports you look for the line that looks the most like a gift and then take the other side.

So so far this week

1. Denver ML +160
2. Iggles ML +100

Will add up to 3 units total when live if other side scores first.

 

[KingEleven]

good luck Croaker

keep studying!

 

[indiana]

croaker.......welcome to the RX NFL forum, sure you will enjoy the site.........many good cappers here to follow..........good luck with your action...........indy

 

[croaker]

Thanks guys

Looks like Eagles are now favored to win. From +3 to -1.5 unreal.

Must be huge action on Philly to give up a middle like that. According to SportsInsights 80% of bets are still on NY.

 

[croaker]

2 for Saturday games

1. Jets +17 1 unit over Patriots, Jets outgained the fish first half last week [before imploding] and another week of practice should see communication between Petty and the OL improve, 17 points is a lot and this is the Jets Superbowl. Patriots have to be looking to conserve some powder for tougher games down the track. So key points are divisional rivalry and new QB who should be improving.

2. GB -6.5 1 unit over Vikings. Playing at GB [which may be worth more than normal home field advantage] and I see GB's recent form easily better than 3.5pts on neutral field. Petersen didn't help last week. Can't see anything to indicate that Vikings wont continue to suck and the cheese eaters won't continue to roll. Large skill difference between teams and home field advantage trumps divisional rivalry.

 

[croaker]

Also

Titans - 4.5 1 unit over Jags. Will ad up to max of 3 units in game if Jags go ahead with first score.

Firing of Jags head coach on plane last week shows the ownership is looking towards the draft rather than finishing the season strong. Jags will be over matched both sides of the ball. Recent form shows a huge gap in ability between the teams, much larger than the year to date power rankings indicate [these seem consistent with the current line] and include data points from earlier in the year that are no longer relevant. Homefield for the Jags is not really worth much.

Looks like a genuine Xmas gift from Vegas.

 

[croaker]

Adding 2 team parlay

Chargers -3.5pts and Washington ML for +200 1 unit

Don't see the weather helping the Browns on either defense or offense. RG3 may struggle on slippery surface and defensive backs will struggle to change direction. Sports Reporter mention this so not my IP but I do think it is relevant. Also don't see Browns taking any risks on draft position. Hugh Jackson may be talking tough but I haven't seen any coaching moves from him this year that indicates he actually wants to win. It looks like the tanking strategy is taking a toll on him. This one could get ugly. A win for the Browns could see them dropping to number 2 in the draft, as slightly higher SOS vs 49ers.

Bears have a good record ATS so is helping to get value for their opponents especially at ML.

Bears still suck and Redskins still have chance to make playoffs. Skins will have to earn it but should win close game.



F me just heard Bowles is in hospital..... undisclosed illness

 

[croaker]

Looks like Jets and Titans are lost causes.

Adding 2 team parlay

NO -3.5 / IND ML + 400 1 unit

 

[croaker]

Well that wasn't much fun

2/5 for the week for -3.1 units.

Surprised by the weak efforts from the Chargers, Titans and Colts. Not really surprised by Denver [who sucked] after reading all the info from the pros like Harry Hat etc.

Also surprised by weak effort by the Lions in 2H vs Cowboys. Cowboys look like real deal, the comparison between Prescott [4th round] and Goff [No1 overall] is like night and day. Poise, professionalism, and dedication all in favor of Dak. I would have been on Lions expecting Dallas to let their foot off the gas at some stage in the game.

Eagles got some help from the zebras in their win, Giants backers were a little unlucky there.

Anyway time to forget and move on to week 17.

 

[OverThinker]

Also

Titans - 4.5 1 unit over Jags. Will ad up to max of 3 units in game if Jags go ahead with first score.

Firing of Jags head coach on plane last week shows the ownership is looking towards the draft rather than finishing the season strong. Jags will be over matched both sides of the ball. Recent form shows a huge gap in ability between the teams, much larger than the year to date power rankings indicate [these seem consistent with the current line] and include data points from earlier in the year that are no longer relevant. Homefield for the Jags is not really worth much.

Looks like a genuine Xmas gift from Vegas.

Im just for 1st time reading your thread now, first and foremost welcome aboard and GL!!

I quoted this post cause in your reasoning for taking the eagles thu night you mentioned you like to find games that seem too easy and go the other way. Appears to me you kinda broke your strategy on this one no? Certainly not trying to bash you or anything after the fact bud I just thought this one seemed curious after reading your thoughts on the correct eagles play (I actually bet gmen after they went to underdogs I couldn't resist, was initially a pass for me but value and all nyg+110 I had to) . As I said please don't take this wrong as my intent not to insult simply to get your thoughts on my observation and if you would say this play was probably out of character for you?

 

[bradyisgod]

Good luck with your plays this weekend Croaker!

 

[croaker]

Im just for 1st time reading your thread now, first and foremost welcome aboard and GL!!

I quoted this post cause in your reasoning for taking the eagles thu night you mentioned you like to find games that seem too easy and go the other way. Appears to me you kinda broke your strategy on this one no? Certainly not trying to bash you or anything after the fact bud I just thought this one seemed curious after reading your thoughts on the correct eagles play (I actually bet gmen after they went to underdogs I couldn't resist, was initially a pass for me but value and all nyg+110 I had to) . As I said please don't take this wrong as my intent not to insult simply to get your thoughts on my observation and if you would say this play was probably out of character for you?

Thank you for your comment. I still have a lot to learn. I look for games where I don't understand the line ie if it is a lot higher or lower than I expect and try and work out whether it represents value or whether it is due to my lack of knowledge. So it is like a place for me to start rather than an automatic rule.

I think you were unlucky with Giants. Looking back I don't think Eagles were necessarily right side. But line was a lot tighter than I expected and it seemed to be that the reason was the return of starters on O-Line.

BOL