Figuring how much a line is off

[DL74]

Can someone please explain to me how to figure how much a line is off?

Example

Ari. -3 vs. Den
Final score Ari 26-Den 7

I understand that the line would be off by +16 Ari. and -16 Den

other Examples:

Ari -4 vs. Den
Final Score Ari 13-Den 10
Line off? (+ or - 1 for Ari.? I understand that it would be opposite for Den.)

Ari +3 vs. Den
Final score Ari 10-Den 28
Line off? (15 or 21? and + or - for who?)

Ari -4 vs Den
Final Score Ari 17-Den 10
Line off? (Again, I would say the line is off 3 points, but who gets the + and who the -?)

I have asked this question in another thread, but am not seeming to get any answers, so I thought I would try here. Thanks for any help and explanation you could provide. BOL!

 

[DL74]

i think i have figured out that, if a team is a favorite and they lose, l/o # will be negative.

Ex.
NE -3.5, and they lose by 24 to NYJ, the line off would look like this for each team:

NE: l/o -27.5
NYJ: l/o +27.5

sound right?

 

[jgm4661]

You have it right. Say Team A fav by 3, or -3. Score is Team A 20 Team B 10. I find it easy to just take diff (fav score - dog score) = (20-10) = 10 and add to the line for fav for line off. So 10 + (-3) = 7. Then the dog is just the opposite , -7.

If it was Team A 10 Team B 20 diff is 10-20 = -10 + -3 = -13.

 

[DL74]

You have it right. Say Team A fav by 3, or -3. Score is Team A 20 Team B 10. I find it easy to just take diff (fav score - dog score) = (20-10) = 10 and add to the line for fav for line off. So 10 + (-3) = 7. Then the dog is just the opposite , -7.

If it was Team A 10 Team B 20 diff is 10-20 = -10 + -3 = -13.

Perfect, thank you!!!

 

[ftkl69]

You have to figure out how far the lines are "OFF" before the game starts. You need a system which is what I use, or something to tell you what the line SHOULD BE and look for the major discrepencies in actual and your line. If you can do this successfully and only play the biggest discrepency lines, you will hit approx 65% like I do.

 

[DL74]

You have to figure out how far the lines are "OFF" before the game starts. You need a system which is what I use, or something to tell you what the line SHOULD BE and look for the major discrepencies in actual and your line. If you can do this successfully and only play the biggest discrepency lines, you will hit approx 65% like I do.

Understood, I'm using pre season games in the example above...BOL to you.