According to my own findings and confirmed by others the price on the favourite has improved in recent years. Where in the old days certain favourite teams would be priced up at 5/4 (2.25), these days they are more likely to be posted at 11/8 (2.37) and then I am not talking about the take-out being lower, because prices on the outsiders have become less attractive. Note that this cannot be caused by a drop in home team advantage. If that were true, then the price on an away favourite should have become lower, but this is not the case. It is always the price on the favourite regardless of it playing at home or away that has become more attractive than expected compared to several years ago IMO. Obviously there was a bit of a bias in regards to the favourites being overbet by squares. So has the public changed its attitude? Personally I doubt that. I have been taking bets from some square friends for quite some time now and 90% of their bets are still on the favourite. What has changed is that in the old days I would just give them Macauslot's prices and they would bet on them. Now they have heard of Indosoccer and even BetFair, so they start bargaining better prices with me. Obviously, if a price on a favourite is too attractive with any book, then I will bet on it myself and if my friends want to be on it too, then I will try to put money on for them too. If I like the outsider and my friends want to bet on the favourite, I love doing them a service giving them the most attractive price, as long as no arbitrage can be done. This is what one calls a pleasure for both. Both these situations should make sense, but recently and this is happening just a bit too often, my friends want to bet on the favourite (in the match Sparta Praha vs. Chelsea i.e.) where I think the price on the favourite is about right, so I do not like taking it or betting on it myself. If the amount is very small, I will still take it simply to do them a favour. If the amount is big for them and kind of averages my size, I will forward it still only doing them a favour, but recently Thank God (they do not seem to lose) I stopped taking the US$1000 size bets on these favourites, which IMO are simply the right price and I consider the size of the bet too small to lay it off with Indosoccer i.e, a company I do not bet directly into. Too much hassle. I tell them to find their own ways to bet it, which they have, because there are about 50,000 locals here in Indonesia. Basically the Indonesian books are doing a good job here snatching away square business from any other book in the world, as they seem overly eager to lay the favourites. It has at least made the Indonesian market the most accurate/competitive/sharp or whatever you want to call it. So far other books world wide had to follow them (like Pinnacle does) or they will feel it, but I think these Indonesians are going too far now!
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Fighting for the favourites
- Thread starter acw
- Start date
Very interesting. Perhaps betting public wager more on dogs lately. In recent years one of the most broadly spread betting dogma among soccer punters is: bets on dogs and away teams hold more value. If fact this belief become so rooted that distinction between “square” and “sharp” players is very often drawn based on bets type (ah what a square, he bets only high-juice favorites, he must lose in long run) not according to the winning % and volume of action.
I believe “away dogs doctrine” is particularly popular in Asia and due to the huge volume of Asian markets, affects Europe too.
I think Maria have posted not so long ago that something similar happens in tennis.
[This message was edited by Dr.Strangelove on September 18, 2003 at 04:43 AM.]
I believe “away dogs doctrine” is particularly popular in Asia and due to the huge volume of Asian markets, affects Europe too.
I think Maria have posted not so long ago that something similar happens in tennis.
[This message was edited by Dr.Strangelove on September 18, 2003 at 04:43 AM.]
Perhaps betting public wager more on dogs lately.
That is exactly what I am trying to argue and what I think is not true.
Personally I think those books that are taking positions and maybe you are right, they in fact are no different from ordinary gamblers/betting public believe too much bets on dogs and away teams hold more value.
I am trying to distinguish where the outsider money comes from.
That is exactly what I am trying to argue and what I think is not true.
Personally I think those books that are taking positions and maybe you are right, they in fact are no different from ordinary gamblers/betting public believe too much bets on dogs and away teams hold more value.
I am trying to distinguish where the outsider money comes from.
If fact this belief become so rooted that distinction between “square” and “sharp” players is very often drawn based on bets type (ah what a square, he bets only high-juice favorites, he must lose in long run) not according to the winning % and volume of action.
The most successful guy that I am in close contact with has 2/3 of his bets on the favourite, he is as sharp as sharp can get and has been doing better every season so far. Well maybe not that surprising knowing that favourites are getting more and more attractive. Free money for him!
But if the then so-called square money is automatically getting a better deal too.
Where are the losers?
I know at least one: Internet1x2
But there must already be more or very soon. Yes, I do expect a few casualties.
The most successful guy that I am in close contact with has 2/3 of his bets on the favourite, he is as sharp as sharp can get and has been doing better every season so far. Well maybe not that surprising knowing that favourites are getting more and more attractive. Free money for him!
But if the then so-called square money is automatically getting a better deal too.
Where are the losers?
I know at least one: Internet1x2
But there must already be more or very soon. Yes, I do expect a few casualties.
The market place is at the most competitive point it's ever been, which as you point out means that there will inevitably be casualties. Tradititional firms (excluding the likes of Ladbrokes, Hills, etc which trade on their names and have a large loyal customer base) literally won't lay a bet if they're not price competitive, if they are then they won't make a decent margin unless their traders are very good. Unfortunately, most of the real talent is on the punting side nowadays, because that's where the money is, and there are a lot of poor traders doing the rounds.
Regards,
Parkendhead
Regards,
Parkendhead
One thing I can see happening is bookies reducing the juice (vig). Traditionally American bookies have always had 10% but some have reducted it to 7 and even 5%. When it comes to football, I havent seen that happening YET, but once one does it others will follow...its the logic behind capitalism; in order to compete with your competitor one has to be a little better than him.
entropy,
Indosoccer does a tremendous good job with their initial prices. Usually they are the first to post them, many copy them and they are really sharp. On my bets I have so far seen them like Macauslot and Pinnacle always move the line, which gives me the impression that they still do proper bookmaking too, so normally I have no worries regarding those books. Here and there they may sometimes lose a bit on a match, but since none of them takes really big bets either, they should be ok. Those big books on Mainland China are a different story these days. They are even more likely to copy Indosoccer's lines than Macauslot's. Fvck he, they respect some Indonesian book more than their own Chinese ones. I am not saying that either one of them is smarter than the other, but you can see what is happening. In a few hours time, around 8AM London time, Harry will wake up. He has not been bothered by all the action the days previous to Saturday's Premier League matches. Too busy betting on the horses on BetFair these days. Harry thinks BetFair is really fantastic. Thank God, he does not touch it for football. The Sporting-Life though remembers him of the fact that it is Saturday and there will be some football action. He goes to the bath room, takes a shower and dries his arse with a hair dryer. None of this is any new. Anyhow by 9AM he will have done his own pricing. It is time to see what the market has on offer. He makes a few phone calls to his friends. They discuss each other's opinion. If they disagree, they will have a few bets against each other, but if they agree, then it is time for some corrections. Indosoccer's price only needs to be slightly off and huge bets are being placed with those big books. Harry's info is being spread around to his followers and somehow Indosoccer's price is being corrected. And this is where it all goes wrong. Some other big well respected player finds out that there has been a significant move. He does not respect Harry's knowledge at all. True story! Anyhow this other big player has kept quiet. The market is moving in his favour, so why complain. He will attack at some stage and so will his fan club too! By the time he attacks, it really does not matter, if Harry is right or he. What is a certainty is that those big books are truly fvcked! They have a losing position no matter what the result will be.
Indosoccer does a tremendous good job with their initial prices. Usually they are the first to post them, many copy them and they are really sharp. On my bets I have so far seen them like Macauslot and Pinnacle always move the line, which gives me the impression that they still do proper bookmaking too, so normally I have no worries regarding those books. Here and there they may sometimes lose a bit on a match, but since none of them takes really big bets either, they should be ok. Those big books on Mainland China are a different story these days. They are even more likely to copy Indosoccer's lines than Macauslot's. Fvck he, they respect some Indonesian book more than their own Chinese ones. I am not saying that either one of them is smarter than the other, but you can see what is happening. In a few hours time, around 8AM London time, Harry will wake up. He has not been bothered by all the action the days previous to Saturday's Premier League matches. Too busy betting on the horses on BetFair these days. Harry thinks BetFair is really fantastic. Thank God, he does not touch it for football. The Sporting-Life though remembers him of the fact that it is Saturday and there will be some football action. He goes to the bath room, takes a shower and dries his arse with a hair dryer. None of this is any new. Anyhow by 9AM he will have done his own pricing. It is time to see what the market has on offer. He makes a few phone calls to his friends. They discuss each other's opinion. If they disagree, they will have a few bets against each other, but if they agree, then it is time for some corrections. Indosoccer's price only needs to be slightly off and huge bets are being placed with those big books. Harry's info is being spread around to his followers and somehow Indosoccer's price is being corrected. And this is where it all goes wrong. Some other big well respected player finds out that there has been a significant move. He does not respect Harry's knowledge at all. True story! Anyhow this other big player has kept quiet. The market is moving in his favour, so why complain. He will attack at some stage and so will his fan club too! By the time he attacks, it really does not matter, if Harry is right or he. What is a certainty is that those big books are truly fvcked! They have a losing position no matter what the result will be.
JackDee thx for your compliment. however i am a horse punter and know v little about sports handicapping ( i have friends who do but more NFL than soccer -- am 6 - 0 on NFL this season )
acw best post i have ever seen from you. v v good especially as it does not contain the usual exaggerations such as GBP 9 digits.
Harry thinks BetFair is really fantastic. Thank God, he does not touch it for football.
i thought you had followed suit as it gave away too much info. agree BetFair is the best new thingy since man discovered fire.
btw i had a big win ( for me ) on BF on Milan @ 5.22 v arsenal. was it a good bet or just a square's luck ??
He goes to the bath room, takes a shower and dries his arse with a hair dryer.
ROTFL.
He does not respect Harry's knowledge at all. True story!
now the true story you should credit to JB and as you are aware they were usually anything but.
i am told two or harry's outs are Malaysia and Cambodia ( say what ?? why would he trust any bookie in Cambodia ?) then they lay it off, and follow, naturally, throughout asia.
TW is quite proud to take US750K from the Malaysian and layoff with 30 bookies on the mainland. regardless of the original source of the action i tell him he is crazy as the Malaysian will only be placing such big action if he thinks he has an edge. plus of course he takes the default risk. YUK.
he says the Malaysian was losing ( end of last season ) so i have to remind him of BJ fluctuations. >> all in cantonese
http://www.luckyball.us/
the other guy may be right as it has occurred to me to try to find out Harry's action and then oppose it, late, on the grounds that all the following has moved the line so much the advantage has moved to the other side.
might that have been true of the Arsenal game where i read later it had been 2.10 early and ended up at 1.90 ??
What is a certainty is that those big books are truly fvcked! They have a losing position no matter what the result will be.
scary thought -- you, I and others believe there will be some crash and burn but the best of the big books will hopefully survive. however without an Rx in Asia how does one gain any clue which are in trouble and which are not.
anyway as you assert elsewhere 70% of the Indonesian market is "in play" ( doubtful ) i believe a reasonable proportion is on the mainland also and supposedly the action is more balanced.
still afaik nearly all the sites have moved from 10c lines to 7.5c / 8c and by the time they pay commission to the agents it is down to 5c, plus nearly all on credit. seems like a recipe for disaster doesn't it ??
acw best post i have ever seen from you. v v good especially as it does not contain the usual exaggerations such as GBP 9 digits.
Harry thinks BetFair is really fantastic. Thank God, he does not touch it for football.
i thought you had followed suit as it gave away too much info. agree BetFair is the best new thingy since man discovered fire.
btw i had a big win ( for me ) on BF on Milan @ 5.22 v arsenal. was it a good bet or just a square's luck ??
He goes to the bath room, takes a shower and dries his arse with a hair dryer.
ROTFL.
He does not respect Harry's knowledge at all. True story!
now the true story you should credit to JB and as you are aware they were usually anything but.
i am told two or harry's outs are Malaysia and Cambodia ( say what ?? why would he trust any bookie in Cambodia ?) then they lay it off, and follow, naturally, throughout asia.
TW is quite proud to take US750K from the Malaysian and layoff with 30 bookies on the mainland. regardless of the original source of the action i tell him he is crazy as the Malaysian will only be placing such big action if he thinks he has an edge. plus of course he takes the default risk. YUK.
he says the Malaysian was losing ( end of last season ) so i have to remind him of BJ fluctuations. >> all in cantonese
http://www.luckyball.us/
the other guy may be right as it has occurred to me to try to find out Harry's action and then oppose it, late, on the grounds that all the following has moved the line so much the advantage has moved to the other side.
might that have been true of the Arsenal game where i read later it had been 2.10 early and ended up at 1.90 ??
What is a certainty is that those big books are truly fvcked! They have a losing position no matter what the result will be.
scary thought -- you, I and others believe there will be some crash and burn but the best of the big books will hopefully survive. however without an Rx in Asia how does one gain any clue which are in trouble and which are not.
anyway as you assert elsewhere 70% of the Indonesian market is "in play" ( doubtful ) i believe a reasonable proportion is on the mainland also and supposedly the action is more balanced.
still afaik nearly all the sites have moved from 10c lines to 7.5c / 8c and by the time they pay commission to the agents it is down to 5c, plus nearly all on credit. seems like a recipe for disaster doesn't it ??
Harry himself can scalp them too, isn't it a possibility ?
No, not Harry! His friends maybe.
btw i had a big win ( for me ) on BF on Milan @ 5.22 v arsenal. was it a good bet or just a square's luck ??
Did it drift that much?! Yes, good bet!
say what ?? why would he trust any bookie in Cambodia ?
When they first went there to have a look, their reaction was:"In Combodia condoms are non-existent".
TW
Nice guy. I never heard any bad stories about him being dishonest, but 'how to contact him' is a regular complain that I do hear. He changes his phone no. every week.
might that have been true of the Arsenal game where i read later it had been 2.10 early and ended up at 1.90 ??
I call that a minor move. Could be the ordinary public. Nothing special.
the other guy may be right as it has occurred to me to try to find out Harry's action and then oppose it, late, on the grounds that all the following has moved the line so much the advantage has moved to the other side.
For a today's Division One match I got this message from my agent on my MSM this morning:
when the price is 1.125, he want me to bet "as much as you can". Then I explained to him that it was too early to bet on it with a big amount. They would not accept.
In a few hours time you are likely to see a disasterous price move on this match. I think the price is now correct, so normally I would bet against it, as soon as the price has moved too far, but not against God! He is just too good!
No, not Harry! His friends maybe.
btw i had a big win ( for me ) on BF on Milan @ 5.22 v arsenal. was it a good bet or just a square's luck ??
Did it drift that much?! Yes, good bet!
say what ?? why would he trust any bookie in Cambodia ?
When they first went there to have a look, their reaction was:"In Combodia condoms are non-existent".
TW
Nice guy. I never heard any bad stories about him being dishonest, but 'how to contact him' is a regular complain that I do hear. He changes his phone no. every week.
might that have been true of the Arsenal game where i read later it had been 2.10 early and ended up at 1.90 ??
I call that a minor move. Could be the ordinary public. Nothing special.
the other guy may be right as it has occurred to me to try to find out Harry's action and then oppose it, late, on the grounds that all the following has moved the line so much the advantage has moved to the other side.
For a today's Division One match I got this message from my agent on my MSM this morning:
when the price is 1.125, he want me to bet "as much as you can". Then I explained to him that it was too early to bet on it with a big amount. They would not accept.
In a few hours time you are likely to see a disasterous price move on this match. I think the price is now correct, so normally I would bet against it, as soon as the price has moved too far, but not against God! He is just too good!
Although i ve just skimmed through this very interesting thread let me add my two cents before i read it more attentively.
As far as dogs, favs, squares and sharps go, my opinion would be that the much talked about inclination of a square to bet the favourite is very much alive and well. Most squares have this blindfold idiotic tactic, and most of their time it's their single betting strategy, of finding a good or decent team compared to their opponent, a team they think can and will win (whatever that means) and then bet it if in their mind the bookmaker odds posit some value. The crux of the matter here is that "if they think the odds have value", for most squares i ve met a 1.6 fav. would not be much different than a 1.95 say favourite in terms of their betting, in other words their notion of value boils down to "i like it, i bet it" and are blindfold to odd differences of as much as 0.3 to 0.5. It's like the old joke where everyone's complaining about the rising price of petrol, and the proverbial dodo goes "i don't know what everyone's complaining about rising petrol prices, i used to put $20 petrol for my car in my local gas station, i still do."
That is not to say they don't line shop, they do, a lot, they might be willing to bet in an obscure book that will sooner or later fold it and take off with their money if they can find a better value on the fav. The distinction i am trying to make here is that a more experienced bettor who does not like a 1.9 fav. for a multitude of reasons will most probably not like the fav at 2.05 either, the square on the other hand would have bet it even if the original odds for the fav. where anything from 1.6 to 1.9 and he d also think he was making a very wise choice if he bet the original 1.6 say fav. in a shady dubious out for 1.65 say.
Another thing is that most squares are very easily swayed by bookmaker odds, let's face it soccer more so than any other sport is a highly unpredictable game, the linemaker can faulter as much as a gambler, the odds set out are very often offset by misconceptions, not enough information or erroneous information, and a good linesmaker is as much prone to that as a good gambler. The square, like i said, is most of the time trailing a bookmaker, if he finds real madrid as 1.8 favourite, regardless of the particular circumstances of the game, he ll think he is getting a good price, at the same time some squares will arbitrarily decide that such a high price on madrid is too good to be true and automaticaly bet the dog, neither of those two decisions having any foundation in their own capping prowess. A more experienced gambler will always have his own odds set out somewhere in the back or front for that matter of his head, that will many times be in sharp contrast to the linesmaker odds.
There's another category of square, albeit the minority, it's what i call the contrarian square. The two axioms of this guy is fade the public (what he thinks the public is betting at least) and fade very low odd favourites. Of course this is another blindfold losing strategy, but there are a lot of such squares who'd like to be sharp but can't type of bettors.
Imo most serious bookmakers will and do stay afloat, price competition or not, the cowboys don't. Most squares are very addicted and problematic gamblers, they gamble to gamble, not for profit, they are overenthusiastic on their winning streaks and completely lose focus and concentration on even the smallest losing streak, most squares will bet 10 very well thought out, value for money bets, and another 20 haphazard irrational ones just to saturate their gambling habit. Of course a cowboy bookmaker taking shots and gambling with other people's money will sooner or later fail as much as his worst failed clients. What i am saying here is that in the imaginary scenario that a bookmaker consistently overpriced favourites by say 0.1-0.2 that would not ipso facto turn a favourite square from a loser to a winner.
now let me go back and re read the rest of the thread...
[This message was edited by JackDee on September 20, 2003 at 06:19 AM.]
As far as dogs, favs, squares and sharps go, my opinion would be that the much talked about inclination of a square to bet the favourite is very much alive and well. Most squares have this blindfold idiotic tactic, and most of their time it's their single betting strategy, of finding a good or decent team compared to their opponent, a team they think can and will win (whatever that means) and then bet it if in their mind the bookmaker odds posit some value. The crux of the matter here is that "if they think the odds have value", for most squares i ve met a 1.6 fav. would not be much different than a 1.95 say favourite in terms of their betting, in other words their notion of value boils down to "i like it, i bet it" and are blindfold to odd differences of as much as 0.3 to 0.5. It's like the old joke where everyone's complaining about the rising price of petrol, and the proverbial dodo goes "i don't know what everyone's complaining about rising petrol prices, i used to put $20 petrol for my car in my local gas station, i still do."
That is not to say they don't line shop, they do, a lot, they might be willing to bet in an obscure book that will sooner or later fold it and take off with their money if they can find a better value on the fav. The distinction i am trying to make here is that a more experienced bettor who does not like a 1.9 fav. for a multitude of reasons will most probably not like the fav at 2.05 either, the square on the other hand would have bet it even if the original odds for the fav. where anything from 1.6 to 1.9 and he d also think he was making a very wise choice if he bet the original 1.6 say fav. in a shady dubious out for 1.65 say.
Another thing is that most squares are very easily swayed by bookmaker odds, let's face it soccer more so than any other sport is a highly unpredictable game, the linemaker can faulter as much as a gambler, the odds set out are very often offset by misconceptions, not enough information or erroneous information, and a good linesmaker is as much prone to that as a good gambler. The square, like i said, is most of the time trailing a bookmaker, if he finds real madrid as 1.8 favourite, regardless of the particular circumstances of the game, he ll think he is getting a good price, at the same time some squares will arbitrarily decide that such a high price on madrid is too good to be true and automaticaly bet the dog, neither of those two decisions having any foundation in their own capping prowess. A more experienced gambler will always have his own odds set out somewhere in the back or front for that matter of his head, that will many times be in sharp contrast to the linesmaker odds.
There's another category of square, albeit the minority, it's what i call the contrarian square. The two axioms of this guy is fade the public (what he thinks the public is betting at least) and fade very low odd favourites. Of course this is another blindfold losing strategy, but there are a lot of such squares who'd like to be sharp but can't type of bettors.
Imo most serious bookmakers will and do stay afloat, price competition or not, the cowboys don't. Most squares are very addicted and problematic gamblers, they gamble to gamble, not for profit, they are overenthusiastic on their winning streaks and completely lose focus and concentration on even the smallest losing streak, most squares will bet 10 very well thought out, value for money bets, and another 20 haphazard irrational ones just to saturate their gambling habit. Of course a cowboy bookmaker taking shots and gambling with other people's money will sooner or later fail as much as his worst failed clients. What i am saying here is that in the imaginary scenario that a bookmaker consistently overpriced favourites by say 0.1-0.2 that would not ipso facto turn a favourite square from a loser to a winner.
now let me go back and re read the rest of the thread...
[This message was edited by JackDee on September 20, 2003 at 06:19 AM.]
Tonight there was a match on which a few books could or may have been fvcked big time.
I am talking about Germany - Bundesliga II match of Nurnberg vs Greuther Furth. At Indosoccer the match opened up Nurnberg giving .5 goal. At least it was this price, when I looked at it the first time. In my opinion this was too much. I think it should have been no handicap (the match funny enough did end up in a 1-1 draw). Early on I asked my guys to bet on Furth. Now Indosoccer's maximum is low on these matches. Identical to Pinnacle and Macauslot one may repeat a bet after a maximum bet has been placed, but the payout or even handicap may have changed. All so far so good, but on Mainland China as I have been told there are guys that are willing to take even on these matches up to US$40k at the same price as Indosoccer offers. (Maybe this even happened), but imagine now that many will have agreed with me and got all their money on Furth getting .5 goal with one of these big China books. Who ever may have followed I do not know, but money came in on Furth with Indosoccer. So much money (and I will not argue it) came in on Furth that the price on Indosoccer moved to Nurnberg only giving 0/.5 goal and the payout too ended up at around the Even Money level. Note: I still fancy Furth at this price. Anyhow I now get a phone call from a Dutch friend living on some remote island here in Indonesia who may be considered as the king of squares, but he is price sensitive! He wants to bet on Nurnberg. And not a small amount either. We are talking US$5k. I now have a huge integrity problem. I already have my position on the match. A position I am very happy about. I do not agree with his bet. Obviously he is getting the best price he can get on Nurnberg, however still at that price I think it is a losing bet, but I do not want to take it. If I were to take it, I would simply have to lay it off. Thank God my agent understands all this, so I did lay it off, but could I have done this if I were to play directly into a book that follows Indosoccer's prices? They may think that I am manipulating prices on Indosoccer to have a nice middle with them, which in this particular case is everything but true!
matahari,
Getting back to your Harry himself can scalp them too, isn't it a possibility ? honestly if I do not do these things. Harry surely will not. Maybe entropy does? What I am trying to say is that the way the market works these days is that those books that copy prices from the so-called respected books are fvcking themselves. I know this happens for quite some time already in the Caribbean on American sports and we have seen books fall one by one. I shortly expect the same thing to happen here in Asia.
I am talking about Germany - Bundesliga II match of Nurnberg vs Greuther Furth. At Indosoccer the match opened up Nurnberg giving .5 goal. At least it was this price, when I looked at it the first time. In my opinion this was too much. I think it should have been no handicap (the match funny enough did end up in a 1-1 draw). Early on I asked my guys to bet on Furth. Now Indosoccer's maximum is low on these matches. Identical to Pinnacle and Macauslot one may repeat a bet after a maximum bet has been placed, but the payout or even handicap may have changed. All so far so good, but on Mainland China as I have been told there are guys that are willing to take even on these matches up to US$40k at the same price as Indosoccer offers. (Maybe this even happened), but imagine now that many will have agreed with me and got all their money on Furth getting .5 goal with one of these big China books. Who ever may have followed I do not know, but money came in on Furth with Indosoccer. So much money (and I will not argue it) came in on Furth that the price on Indosoccer moved to Nurnberg only giving 0/.5 goal and the payout too ended up at around the Even Money level. Note: I still fancy Furth at this price. Anyhow I now get a phone call from a Dutch friend living on some remote island here in Indonesia who may be considered as the king of squares, but he is price sensitive! He wants to bet on Nurnberg. And not a small amount either. We are talking US$5k. I now have a huge integrity problem. I already have my position on the match. A position I am very happy about. I do not agree with his bet. Obviously he is getting the best price he can get on Nurnberg, however still at that price I think it is a losing bet, but I do not want to take it. If I were to take it, I would simply have to lay it off. Thank God my agent understands all this, so I did lay it off, but could I have done this if I were to play directly into a book that follows Indosoccer's prices? They may think that I am manipulating prices on Indosoccer to have a nice middle with them, which in this particular case is everything but true!
matahari,
Getting back to your Harry himself can scalp them too, isn't it a possibility ? honestly if I do not do these things. Harry surely will not. Maybe entropy does? What I am trying to say is that the way the market works these days is that those books that copy prices from the so-called respected books are fvcking themselves. I know this happens for quite some time already in the Caribbean on American sports and we have seen books fall one by one. I shortly expect the same thing to happen here in Asia.
acw,
Surely those books have to learn quick to avoid going down. I see two solutions: either to low their limits to the Indosoccer levels, and still copy their lines adding 0.025 to make them attractive - unrealistic one, or another one - keep the maximums like before and have an opinion on what they offer, it's not the first day of the business, they surely know who they deal with.
Now, any ideas who was behind a skyrocketing move on Belenenses-Guimaraes ? I was on Belenenses since early, but as a faithful follower of the kind of moves like before-mentioned I had to jump to the other side to save my ass as I thought, Result - just gave away the vig on what otherwise would've been a profitable day.
Surely those books have to learn quick to avoid going down. I see two solutions: either to low their limits to the Indosoccer levels, and still copy their lines adding 0.025 to make them attractive - unrealistic one, or another one - keep the maximums like before and have an opinion on what they offer, it's not the first day of the business, they surely know who they deal with.
Now, any ideas who was behind a skyrocketing move on Belenenses-Guimaraes ? I was on Belenenses since early, but as a faithful follower of the kind of moves like before-mentioned I had to jump to the other side to save my ass as I thought, Result - just gave away the vig on what otherwise would've been a profitable day.
matahari,
Is it not that simply that a few books will go broke soon and from then on we will see higher vigs?
Simply too much competition at the moment.
Now, any ideas who was behind a skyrocketing move on Belenenses-Guimaraes ?
No idea. Personally I thought the price was spot on, so no reason for me to be on Belenenses early. Why did you originally like them?
Is it not that simply that a few books will go broke soon and from then on we will see higher vigs?
Simply too much competition at the moment.
Now, any ideas who was behind a skyrocketing move on Belenenses-Guimaraes ?
No idea. Personally I thought the price was spot on, so no reason for me to be on Belenenses early. Why did you originally like them?
First of all thanks for the visual on the fellow who blowdries his ass with a hair dryer.
Is it one of those hair dryers with the long
neck?? one must know these things.and how
hirsute is harry's heine anyway??
i'm not sure of the methodology employed in
calculating average price,( more correct to
use median,than mean) but this article has
a few stats on the favourite-longshot bias.
http://www.football-data.co.uk/favourites.php
Ciao
Is it one of those hair dryers with the long
neck?? one must know these things.and how
hirsute is harry's heine anyway??
i'm not sure of the methodology employed in
calculating average price,( more correct to
use median,than mean) but this article has
a few stats on the favourite-longshot bias.
http://www.football-data.co.uk/favourites.php
Ciao
acw,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Personally I thought the price was spot on, so no reason for me to be on Belenenses early. Why did you originally like them? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
At 1.9 it had value for me, mainly because of the recent performances of the teams.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Personally I thought the price was spot on, so no reason for me to be on Belenenses early. Why did you originally like them? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
At 1.9 it had value for me, mainly because of the recent performances of the teams.
