Fight Night ~ DEC 18th

[mrpickem]

Decent Fight Night Card with early 4pm EST start.

After a solid first 10 months to the year, I've shat the bed over the last 4 cards and gave up all winning and then some, losing over 75u in that time to arrive here at -17.6u on the year. Will need an excellent day to get back in the black. I had a very good day going last week, but overextended on Nunes to finish about even for the week. It's been fun though and I'm planning to bank some today, Let's go!

 

[mrpickem]

Fight Night Prelims...

• Leavitt Sub +125 ...At a certain point, weight plays a major role in a fight. Sayles was already underweight at 145lbs, his boxing isn’t going to find much more success at LW. Even with Claudio Puelles exposing the limitations of Leavitt’s all-round game, is Sayles physically capable of dealing with Leavitt’s takedowns? Moreover, can Sayles grapple defensively to the same efficiency against a naturally far larger man?
• Parisian +158 ...A glaring problem with Mayes is his footwork. Never moving his feet to strike, Mayes falls into his strikes and loses much of the power in the process. Parisian’s ability to counter off the back-foot may see him punish Mayes as he overextends onto his attacks. Still, Roque Martinez was able to drag Parisian through hell in the first round of their bout. Mayes, at 6’6″, has the physical prowess to bully Parisian in a similar manner against the cage.
• Pennington Decision +110 ...Raquel Pennington is a ridiculously ugly fighter, but it has a certain charm to it. Walking down opponents with a granite chin, Pennington looks to clinch up and dirty box to the scorecards. It’s rare to see the take one to give one style in MMA, but it sure is effective in stifling an opponent’s best game. Surprisingly when considering her frame, Chiasson will prefer a war on the inside. Against a better clinch fighter and wrestler, Chiasson will have to have shown wholesale improvements since the Lina Lansberg loss to compete with Pennington at her own game.
  
• Eubanks Decision +125 ...At Flyweight, we haven’t yet seen if Eubanks has solved her conditioning issues. However, Gatto doesn’t seem the fighter to threaten Eubanks’ gas tank. Eubanks should physically overwhelm Gatto to the extent that the Brazilian is unable to cleanly showcase her grappling chops. Eubanks has shown the ability to land meaningful shots from the top, but there isn’t any point in risking the fight on the mat against Gatto’s chain submission attempts.
• Tafa KO -250 Probably in round 1 ...Tafa has lost all confidence after a 1-3 run in the UFC. Hunsucker is the kindest offering for Tafa to unload his power shots without needing to close the distance. Hunsucker can walk forward and set a decent pace. Unfortunately, after eating the first shot from Tuivasa, Hunsucker worryingly reacted in a gun-shy fashion. Tafa’s early power should break Hunsucker mentally.
• Barcelos KO ...There's always a spot on the roster for a fighter of Henry’s quality. It was only a couple of years ago that Henry beat Kyler Phillips. Unfortunately, for some strange reason, Raoni Barcelos has been held back as the man tasked to introduce Henry to the UFC. Henry is well-rounded and his activity in the clinch could cause Barcelos a few problems. Most likely, however, Henry’s tendency to kick on the inside will see Barcelos unload his dynamite power.
• Meerschaert -225 ...Although Meerschaert has a history of poor luck on the scorecards, it is difficult to see Stoltzfus getting the upper hand today. A durable hard-nut, Stoltzfus lacks a technical or athletic edge. Meerschaert’s polished grappling will overwhelm Stoltzfus on the mat, while the thirty-year-old lacks the firepower on the feet to threaten Meers’ ageing chin. A sub victory from either man is possible, but I just see a muted affair between the two.

Note: Since my book only offers ITD and not Sub or KO, all my KO or Sub picks/odds are for ITD and win whether KO or Sub. Just FYI

​

 

[mrpickem]

Bet first 3 fights in advance,,,

• 2/1.56 JORDAN LEAVITT -128
• 1/3.00 JORDAN LEAVITT IN ROUND 1 +300
• 2/2.50 JORDAN LEAVITT KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +125
• 1.27/2 JOSH PARISIAN +158
• 2/1.42 RAQUEL PENNINGTON -141
• 2/2.20 RAQUEL PENNINGTON DEC/TECH DEC +110

 

[mrpickem]

[3-3 +1.21u]

Next two...

• 2/1.20 SIJARA EUBANKS -166
• 1.60/2 SIJARA EUBANKS DEC/TECH DEC +125
• 2.30/2 JUSTIN TAFA IN ROUND 1 -115
• 4/1.60 JUSTIN TAFA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -250

 

[mrpickem]

• 1/1.50 CHARLES JOURDAIN KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +150

 

[mrpickem]

[5-6 +0.21u]

• 3/1.26 GERALD MEERSCHAERT -239
• 1.65/1 DUSTIN STOLTZFUS vs GERALD MEERSCHAERT OVER 1½ -165

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Fight Night 199: Main Card

• Swanson likely decision ...The pace that Darren Elkins sets has dropped a notch since his freakishly fun run over 2015-2018. A small career resurgence against Eduardo Garagorri and Darrick Minner has extended Elkins career, but the victories were petty imitations of his prime. Chikadze may have stopped Swanson uncharacteristically early, but the veteran’s heart won’t break under Elkins’ pressure. Instead, Swanson’s strange cocktail of reactive striking and occasional technical perfection will keep a tight hold over the fight momentum.
• Gamrot Decision ...Gamrot should be considered the favorite in this match-up. A tireless wrestler who will be more than happy to grapple with Ferreira’s threatening arsenal – the question is whether the Pole can handle that heat in the early rounds? The pace of fights has started to look like it visibly wears on Ferreira. Gamrot’s early aggression on the feet could either tax Ferreira’s gas tank or see the Pole walking onto a hard counter – having relied a little too often on his chin in his UFC run so far.
• Simon ...Even at 39 in the Bantamweight division, this isn’t a death sentence for Assuncao. The Brazilian is a stifling striker with a stabbing jab and excellent pressure footwork that can transition into his elite grappling chops. Even for his flaws on the feet, however, Ricky Simon has to be favored based on his style. The younger, more physically imposing fighter will drain Assuncao’s gas tank early – and Simon’s greater willingness to wrestle allows him to grind out opponents from the top. Assuncao poses a submission threat, but Simon was surprisingly defensively aware of Kelleher’s chokes off the back.
• Lemos KO ...Will Angela Hill swallow the first knockout loss of her career on Saturday night? Lemos has an unnaturally strong power base for Women’s Strawweight. Lemos’ granite chin should eat Hill’s early flurries and enable Lemos to suffocate the space that Hill needs to operate on the outside. For all the improvements that Hill has made to her wrestling and grappling – there has been no visible developments to striking defense. Hill moves back in a straight line and drops her hands when disengaging with an opponent – a recipe for disaster against KO power. Hill could still pip a decision based on her volume and activity on the feet, but it has been a long time since Hill’s last quality win.
  
• Thompson ...for all the cracks that Gilbert Burns exposed on Stephen Thompson TDD, the veteran’s striking remains buttery smooth. Rhythmic bouncing footwork, spinning wheel kicks, and sharp 1-2s kept the Brazilian gun-shy on the outside. Muhammad’s jab is a necessary weapon to transition into his wrestling. If, as expected, Wonderboy can strip Muhammad of his jab – this will be a dominating affair. Additionally, Muhammad’s stance-switches allow him to create new angles to surprise opponents. Often switching stances within range of his opponent, however, spells danger. Wonderboy closes distance rapidly and could more easily drop Muhammad in his unbalanced state.
• Lewis KO ...Of importance will be Lewis’ natural size and build for HW. Daukaus’ frame is strangely disproportionate and suggests a body better suited for Light Heavyweight. Technically superior in the clinch or not, Lewis won’t find himself bullied against the cage as Gane so easily achieved. Lewis’ ability to surprise late in a contest is well documented – Daukaus’ experience of controlling a contest beyond the second round against such a threat is yet to be seen. Daukaus’ knockout loss to Azunna Anyanwu is particularly concerning. Daukaus attempted to dominate the fight in the same manner as all four of his UFC wins, yet was out-gunned and out-powered by a technically mediocre fighter. Daukaus’ reliance on the step-in straight will leave him in trouble against Lewis. While there is no denying Daukaus’ sting, it isn’t concussive power. The Black Beast will punish Daukaus when he throws the lunging straight naked, or as he sits patiently in the pocket afterwards.

 

[mrpickem]

[7-6 +2.47u]

• 3/1.88 CUB SWANSON -160
• 1.33/2 CUB SWANSON DEC/TECH DEC +150
• 3/1.29 MATEUSZ GAMROT -232
• 2/3.20 MATEUSZ GAMROT BY 3 RD DECISION +160

https://imgur.com/aYZNJLN

 

[mrpickem]

[9-8 +2.31u]

• 5.64/2 RICKY SIMON -282
• 2.00/2 RICKY SIMON BY 3 RD DECISION +100
• 2/0.96 RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO vs RICKY SIMON OVER 2½ -208

 

[mrpickem]

[10-10 +0.31u]

• 6/2.14 AMANDA LEMOS -280
• 1/6.50 AMANDA LEMOS IN ROUND 2 +650
• 1/1.75 AMANDA LEMOS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +175

Well fuck, picking winners and still losing ground.

 

[mrpickem]

[11-12 +0.45u]

• 6/2.74 STEPHEN THOMPSON -219
• 2/1.82 STEPHEN THOMPSON DEC/TECH DEC -110

 

[mrpickem]

[11-14 -7.55]

• 5/6.20 DERRICK LEWIS +124
• 4/3.28 DERRICK LEWIS vs CHRIS DAUKAUS OVER 1½ -122
• 2/7.50 DERRICK LEWIS IN ROUND 1 +375

It's BEAST time, he's real and not out of gas like Thompson.