FGators Week 4

[FGators]

1% 3-2, +.8
2% 3-2,+1.6
3% 0-1, -3.3
4%
5%
6-5,-.9

Had a 4-1 week last week which was positive. It got me going in the right direction after a horrid start.

The Chiefs Week 2 failure against the Raiders still stings.

I'm highly considering three awful home teams that are anti-public and 0-3 ATS to start the season.

I'm fairly confident two of these can cover.

Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins

Going to handicap a little more and study the tout picks for fade purposes before locking anything in.

Back tomorrow before kickoffs.

 

[FGators]

Siding with two really bad football teams here. Two teams that are 0-3 against the spread with many offensive questions. Questions that ask can they even get a first down? They are going up against two defensives now thought to be top 5, as the Bengals defense has impressed each week, really. The Giants defense has always been considered upper echelon.


However, I don't see the New York Giants as the 16-0 Patriots, a team that can in the first half of the season cruise with easy ATS wins. This is the Giants third straight road game and they enter a still hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium.

80% of the public is on the G-Men and quite frankly I'm not falling for the trap.

I can't sit here and write prose about how the Chiefs offense can consistently move the ball on the Giants. I think, however, that they should be able to run the ball and eat clock. We saw the Giants defense get gashed on the ground by Dallas on Sunday Night Football and Justin Tuck still isn't 100%.

Todd Haley's coaching career has not gotten off to a smooth start. He got destroyed by the Eagles and his team choked away a win against the Raiders, which featured the pathetic JaMarcus Russell leading his team to a game winning TD-drive.

With a 3-0 team entering your home stadium and you are backed to the wall at 0-3 you would think a team would make this an "early season Super Bowl" and put forth a big time effort.

Getting 9 is just enough. I expect the Chiefs to keep this close early (favor a 1st half play on KC as well) and end up losing this one late.

Keep in mind that Brandon Jacobs has not exactly been killing it on the ground. Ahmad Bradshaw has outperformed him.

The wind could be a factor at Arrowhead as well and we know Eli Manning despises that condition at the Meadowlands.

Major touts and poor prognosticators on the Giants, too. If you know me one of my first moves is to check out the touts and the tallies and this is in our favor.

In fact this basically falls into my successful "NYC fade crew" as many NY Sports writers have picked the Giants ATS.

Giants 27 Chiefs 23

3% Kansas City Chiefs +9

Same deal with the Browns. 0-3 ATS and a quarterback change. The line opened around -4,-5 for Cincinnati and was pounded by the public. The Bengals lost a heartbreaker to the Broncos, defeated the Packers as more than a TD dog on the road wrecking some Survivor pools, and then shocked the Super Bowl champions moving them to 1-2.

The Bengals are now a public darling and are being bet on as upwards of 70%.

I think Vegas knows something setting this line. It's very sketchy, especially with Eric Mangini's team rumored to quit on him and Jamal Lewis banged up.

I think this may be the week Braylon Edwards finds himself, and it is courtesy of Derek Anderson. Edwards was a top WR in the league two seasons ago and Anderson was a beneficiary.

I also like the youngester Davis from Clemson running hard. This kid was a training camp rage and from what I've seen he runs hard and is effective.

It's a division rivalry and I think the Bengals, with two ATS wins in a row and almost three are going to fall into sucker territory by the population.

2% Cleveland Browns +6

Considering Jets later. Brandon Lang, Al DeMarco, and others really like them and from what we've seen out of their performances it's an insta-fade.

GL

 

[FGators]

Adding:

2% NY Jets +7.5

 

[FGators]

Well I absolutely hate the horrible Kansas City Chiefs, they absolutely blow. Matt Cassel is stealing money.

Updated Record:

1% 3-2, +.8
2% 4-3, +1.4
3% 0-2, -6.6
4%
5%
7-7, -4.4

3% Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

Let's see. A 1-2 team without their starting RB, missing their starting safety and 0-3 ATS?

Doesn't seem like a team laying 5.5-6 points?

I think the line is really baiting people to take the points.

The Steelers have not looked impressive and the public perception is that without Troy Polamulu this defense is pedestrian.

They just lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, who this afternoon won an overtime dogfight with now 0-4 Cleveland.

Doesn't seem, once again, like a team that should be favored here.

I think they come to play in the national spotlight tonight. I expect them to rattle Philip Rivers and make him look like he did in the first prime time game this year against Oakland.

I think the key is what I alluded to here. 41% population, down public perception, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 overall, and yet laying almost a touchdown.

I believe the oddsmakers are telling the story here.

10, 17 and 23 is the points allowed for the Super Bowl Champs. Not bad at all.

On the other side San Diego gave up 20 to Oakland (208 yards passing by JaMarcus Russell), 31 to Baltimore at home, and 13 to the Dolphins who are a better team with Chad Henne in there then Chad Pennigton.

I think you can really run on this San Diego team.

Jamal Williams is a stud and lost for the year. You don't just replace him. You also find LT, Shawne Merriman, Vincent Jackson, and Nick Hardwick on the injury report.

Great players.

The Steelers defense is made up of great tacklers (obviously) and they should be able to rap up and contain the shiftyness of Darren Sproles. Sproles makes his waves against the Colts, Chiefs, Broncos type defenses that aren't as physical and a tackling machine like Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh wins it 27-13.

 

[FGators]

1% 3-2, +.8
2% 4-3, +1.4
3% 1-2, -3.6
4%
5%
8-7, -1.4

A little down going into Monday Night. Obviously not the start I wanted to begin the NFL season but not down much at all. Just a few crumbs and definitely, with a good week next week start to turn a nice profit.

Next week and tomorrow night is crucial.

Leaning towards the Packers right now...

back tomorrow with the play.

 

[FGators]

2% Green Bay Packers +4.5

Was going to be more but all this late Packers rage has gotten me a little hesitant.

I think Dom Capers defense will bring a better effort tonight.

What will we get from Brett Favre? Probably a fairly pedestrian effort against a division rival that will know a good deal about him.

I think when a team struggles with something, and we've discussed this, they focus on it.

The Packers gave up 103 yards rushing to Cedric Benson. Naturally you think ADP will be a lock for about 150 and two scores.

I don't think so. The Packers will bring an extra guy in the box and focus on stopping the run.

They won't shut down ADP but they will contain him. In the end I trust Aaron Rodgers a lot more than Brett Favre at this point and I expect Rodgers to lead the troops to an outright win.

Packers 24 Vikings 14

 

[FGators]

Things I should probably do:

1. Realize Jared Allen is a beast.
2. Never side with Brandon Lang
3. Stick to college football

Really disappointed in my NFL season so far. I think I'm better than this and cannot seem to get much going.

Think I turn it around soon.

1% 3-2, +.8
2% 4-4, -.8
3% 1-2, -3.6
4%
5%
8-8, -3.6 units

 

[Bennyshoe]

well i know you're kicking ass in CFB..keep it up there