Read why Fezzik agrees with Stephen Nover (and against Shrink) in taking the Panthers plus seven against the Pats by going to the RX home page at www.theprescription.com
Charlie
Charlie
The one major flaw with Fezzik's theory is the team that wins on the field covers the spread in 9 out of every 10 super bowls. Assuming this will be the case again why would you ever lay even a price as low as -210 on the ML. Lay the 6.5 -15 or even -110 if possible, but if that number is not availbale and you are convinced the Patriots will win, then lay the 7 and if you push - you push.
Super Bowl Results all time:
Notice the winner on the field almost always covers the spread. I don't have all the spread but just the score themselves can tell you which teams got the money. Recent exceptions - 96 Cowboys who won by 10, and 97 Packers who won by 14 (push).
Game Date Result
XXXVII Jan. 26, 2003 Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002 New England 20, St. Louis 17
XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7
XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000 St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999 Denver 34, Atlanta 19
XXXII Jan. 25, 1998 Denver 31, Green Bay 24
XXXI Jan. 26, 1997 Green Bay 35, New England 21
XXX Jan. 28, 1996 Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
XXIX Jan. 29, 1995 San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994 Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
XXVII Jan. 31, 1993 Dallas 52, Buffalo 17
XXVI Jan. 26, 1992 Washington 37, Buffalo 24
XXV Jan. 27, 1991 N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19
XXIV Jan. 28, 1990 San Francisco 55, Denver 10
XXIII Jan. 22, 1989 San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16
XXII Jan. 31, 1988 Washington 42, Denver 10
XXI Jan. 25, 1987 N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20
XX Jan. 26, 1986 Chicago 46, New England 10
XIX Jan. 20, 1985 San Francisco 38, Miami 16
XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9
XVII Jan. 30, 1983 Washington 27, Miami 17
XVI Jan. 24, 1982 San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21
XV Jan. 25, 1981 Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10
XIV Jan. 20, 1980 Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19
XIII Jan. 21, 1979 Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
XII Jan. 15, 1978 Dallas 27, Denver 10
XI Jan. 9, 1977 Oakland 32, Minnesota 14
X Jan. 18, 1976 Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17
IX Jan. 12, 1975 Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6
VIII Jan. 13, 1974 Miami 24, Minnesota 7
VII Jan. 14, 1973 Miami 14, Washington 7
VI Jan. 16, 1972 Dallas 24, Miami 3
V Jan. 17, 1971 Baltimore 16, Dallas 13
IV Jan. 11, 1970 Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7
III Jan. 12, 1969 N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7
II Jan. 14, 1968 Green Bay 33, Oakland 14
I Jan. 15, 1967 Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
Super Bowl Results all time:
Notice the winner on the field almost always covers the spread. I don't have all the spread but just the score themselves can tell you which teams got the money. Recent exceptions - 96 Cowboys who won by 10, and 97 Packers who won by 14 (push).
Game Date Result
XXXVII Jan. 26, 2003 Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21
XXXVI Feb. 3, 2002 New England 20, St. Louis 17
XXXV Jan. 28, 2001 Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7
XXXIV Jan. 30, 2000 St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16
XXXIII Jan. 31, 1999 Denver 34, Atlanta 19
XXXII Jan. 25, 1998 Denver 31, Green Bay 24
XXXI Jan. 26, 1997 Green Bay 35, New England 21
XXX Jan. 28, 1996 Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17
XXIX Jan. 29, 1995 San Francisco 49, San Diego 26
XXVIII Jan. 30, 1994 Dallas 30, Buffalo 13
XXVII Jan. 31, 1993 Dallas 52, Buffalo 17
XXVI Jan. 26, 1992 Washington 37, Buffalo 24
XXV Jan. 27, 1991 N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19
XXIV Jan. 28, 1990 San Francisco 55, Denver 10
XXIII Jan. 22, 1989 San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16
XXII Jan. 31, 1988 Washington 42, Denver 10
XXI Jan. 25, 1987 N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20
XX Jan. 26, 1986 Chicago 46, New England 10
XIX Jan. 20, 1985 San Francisco 38, Miami 16
XVIII Jan. 22, 1984 L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9
XVII Jan. 30, 1983 Washington 27, Miami 17
XVI Jan. 24, 1982 San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21
XV Jan. 25, 1981 Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10
XIV Jan. 20, 1980 Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19
XIII Jan. 21, 1979 Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31
XII Jan. 15, 1978 Dallas 27, Denver 10
XI Jan. 9, 1977 Oakland 32, Minnesota 14
X Jan. 18, 1976 Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17
IX Jan. 12, 1975 Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6
VIII Jan. 13, 1974 Miami 24, Minnesota 7
VII Jan. 14, 1973 Miami 14, Washington 7
VI Jan. 16, 1972 Dallas 24, Miami 3
V Jan. 17, 1971 Baltimore 16, Dallas 13
IV Jan. 11, 1970 Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7
III Jan. 12, 1969 N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7
II Jan. 14, 1968 Green Bay 33, Oakland 14
I Jan. 15, 1967 Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10
Fezzik hit 56% in the NFL and 43% in college.
Check LVAsports.com.
Panthers might be the right side but most Superbowls the line doesn't come into play. Maybe that's different now that there's parity. Until Fezzik has a long term winning track record in the NFL and College his opinion holds about the same weight as any other poster on RX.
Check LVAsports.com.
Panthers might be the right side but most Superbowls the line doesn't come into play. Maybe that's different now that there's parity. Until Fezzik has a long term winning track record in the NFL and College his opinion holds about the same weight as any other poster on RX.
I'm well aware of the SB past history. It's a classic example of a tiny data sample be used to completely reprice the mathematics of point spread distributions.
I've looked at at, and I do believe there are some key reasons that SBs have more volatility than other games, but this factor has been weighted WAY too much in the ML conversions.
It's amazing how people can look at a sample size of 37, and draw definitive conclusions from it.
I've looked at at, and I do believe there are some key reasons that SBs have more volatility than other games, but this factor has been weighted WAY too much in the ML conversions.
It's amazing how people can look at a sample size of 37, and draw definitive conclusions from it.
A quick note on my record:
My three-year record can be found at Sharpsportsbetting.com.
My three year NFL record has held steady around 56-57%.
2001-2002 College was 54%, then the 2003 College meltdown. In retrospect, I regret releasing College picks. My expertise is the NFL. It's the sport I specialize on, and spend 90% of my handicapping time on.
My three-year record can be found at Sharpsportsbetting.com.
My three year NFL record has held steady around 56-57%.
2001-2002 College was 54%, then the 2003 College meltdown. In retrospect, I regret releasing College picks. My expertise is the NFL. It's the sport I specialize on, and spend 90% of my handicapping time on.
Fezzik picking the outright winner on the field works nearly equally as well in any NFL game (around 80% cover). The sample of 37 just happen to be Super Bowls.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Laying 230 on a money line is far superior to laying seven on the game. So, if I was forced to bet the Patriots, that would be the way to play them.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Based on the chances of the Pats winning and not covering the 7, which is the only reason to bet the ML. I would be most hesitant to lay such heavy juice. I will say it again if you (the bettor) are convinved that the Patriots are going to win the game on the field, lay the points. Natrually lay as few as possible with a little juice as possible.
The other side of that coin is Carolina to win the game outright. Why take 7 or even 7.5 and lay -110 or worse. Take plus 170 on the ML and trust your handicapping that The Panthers will win the game on the field. In short the winner of this game covers the spread IMO.
BTW. I am in no way recommending either side, just the method I believe is best to bet the side (Pats or Panthers) you the bettors like.
wil.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Laying 230 on a money line is far superior to laying seven on the game. So, if I was forced to bet the Patriots, that would be the way to play them.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Based on the chances of the Pats winning and not covering the 7, which is the only reason to bet the ML. I would be most hesitant to lay such heavy juice. I will say it again if you (the bettor) are convinved that the Patriots are going to win the game on the field, lay the points. Natrually lay as few as possible with a little juice as possible.
The other side of that coin is Carolina to win the game outright. Why take 7 or even 7.5 and lay -110 or worse. Take plus 170 on the ML and trust your handicapping that The Panthers will win the game on the field. In short the winner of this game covers the spread IMO.
BTW. I am in no way recommending either side, just the method I believe is best to bet the side (Pats or Panthers) you the bettors like.
wil.
Fezzik, I don't think 37 is such a small sample given that it is a very unique game and Wilheims stats are very indicative of a strong pattern. What I have felt watching these is that as one team begins to control the game, they become increasingly elated as it looks like they are going to get the win. The other team's disappointment is rising for the opposite reason (the heart is deflating in other words). By the late stages it gets easy for the winning team to turn it into a party, more or less, and they have nothing to hold back for, while the loser slumps into hibernation. Last year was exactly like that, even though TB was the underdog (if you didn't know TB was the better team going in you sure knew it by the end).
I think games like last year we're very easy after the fact, but I really side with Shrink that this is one of the easiest going in. Brady is no superstar but his offense can score (while his defense can completely dominate) and the fact that so many games were close doesn't concern me. They know how to win - why should a blow-out effort surprise anybody against an expansion team's first SB??
I think games like last year we're very easy after the fact, but I really side with Shrink that this is one of the easiest going in. Brady is no superstar but his offense can score (while his defense can completely dominate) and the fact that so many games were close doesn't concern me. They know how to win - why should a blow-out effort surprise anybody against an expansion team's first SB??
Charlie-
Boy, it's a good thing that you put all these links to the Prescription site. We would never know how to get there. If only there was some easy link to that site that everyone could find.... Oh, gee, look at the top of EVERY-F***ING-PAGE there's a link to Prescription.com.
Forcing a thread like this to the TOP of the forum with a priority flag is pretty weak-ass, considering how important the PanAm situation is to the posters.
Boy, it's a good thing that you put all these links to the Prescription site. We would never know how to get there. If only there was some easy link to that site that everyone could find.... Oh, gee, look at the top of EVERY-F***ING-PAGE there's a link to Prescription.com.
Forcing a thread like this to the TOP of the forum with a priority flag is pretty weak-ass, considering how important the PanAm situation is to the posters.
Wil-
I think that of all the threads that could be "pinned", this is a poor choice. I'm also a little annoyed at Charlie's shamless self-promotion of articles on the Prescription. If an article is really good, then the forum will get around to discussing it. We don't need Charlie to point it out. (It's not like Charlie adds any value by actually commenting on the article.)
If you are going to "pin" a thread to the top, at least make it an important one, like the BetPanAm situation, not some tout article about who-likes-whom in the Superbowl.
I think that of all the threads that could be "pinned", this is a poor choice. I'm also a little annoyed at Charlie's shamless self-promotion of articles on the Prescription. If an article is really good, then the forum will get around to discussing it. We don't need Charlie to point it out. (It's not like Charlie adds any value by actually commenting on the article.)
If you are going to "pin" a thread to the top, at least make it an important one, like the BetPanAm situation, not some tout article about who-likes-whom in the Superbowl.
Pretending:
Completely agree with your analysis as to why so many Superbowls end up one sided at the end. I have seen each and every game as well as other championships and it is true as one team begins to eye the title while their opponent sees it slip away, the game gets away and can result in a lopsided win.
However, I disagree with your statement that the New England offense can score and their defense is dominant. First, the Patriots have a very average rushing attack and will have great difficulty moving the ball on the ground against the Panther front four. Second, the Patriots passing game is a short ball controlled 5.6 ypc attack going against a tight bump and cover defense and the receivers do not possess separation ability. This is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. As to the Patriot defense, respect for HC Belichick and his game plans, but the Pats do give up 3.6 ypc and have not faced an OL and running attack with Davis at 4.6 ypc and Foster at 3.8 ypc. This defense is no where near as good as the Bucs or the Ravens in the recent past Superbowls. The Panthers have two receivers, Smith and Muhammad that are physical and fast, particularly Smith. They can separate short or long. If the Pats come up in the box to stop the run, the secondary will get burned. If they stay back, their front 7 are not physical enough to match-up with the Carolina running game. Granted the Pats know how to win, but so do the Panthers. Look closely at their playoff wins on the road in tough environments. Check how the Pats have played away from home. Remember, they benefitted from being at home plus climate. I was on the Pats against the Colts, but won't be here. This is a decent team but, man for man, nothing special. Truly believe the Panthers are the better team and can win this game outright. The points may not come into play and if their is a blowout, it might just be the Panthers on the winning end as the Bucs and Pats of the previous two years.
Completely agree with your analysis as to why so many Superbowls end up one sided at the end. I have seen each and every game as well as other championships and it is true as one team begins to eye the title while their opponent sees it slip away, the game gets away and can result in a lopsided win.
However, I disagree with your statement that the New England offense can score and their defense is dominant. First, the Patriots have a very average rushing attack and will have great difficulty moving the ball on the ground against the Panther front four. Second, the Patriots passing game is a short ball controlled 5.6 ypc attack going against a tight bump and cover defense and the receivers do not possess separation ability. This is not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. As to the Patriot defense, respect for HC Belichick and his game plans, but the Pats do give up 3.6 ypc and have not faced an OL and running attack with Davis at 4.6 ypc and Foster at 3.8 ypc. This defense is no where near as good as the Bucs or the Ravens in the recent past Superbowls. The Panthers have two receivers, Smith and Muhammad that are physical and fast, particularly Smith. They can separate short or long. If the Pats come up in the box to stop the run, the secondary will get burned. If they stay back, their front 7 are not physical enough to match-up with the Carolina running game. Granted the Pats know how to win, but so do the Panthers. Look closely at their playoff wins on the road in tough environments. Check how the Pats have played away from home. Remember, they benefitted from being at home plus climate. I was on the Pats against the Colts, but won't be here. This is a decent team but, man for man, nothing special. Truly believe the Panthers are the better team and can win this game outright. The points may not come into play and if their is a blowout, it might just be the Panthers on the winning end as the Bucs and Pats of the previous two years.
Java, these articles are only pinned for about two hours during a 24-hour period and are designed to get more page views to the home page.
The more page views we get on the home page the more we can please the advertisers. The more the advertisers are pleased, the more we can be sure this site is financially strong and can support the posting forum. The posting forum cannot support itself.
Charlie
The more page views we get on the home page the more we can please the advertisers. The more the advertisers are pleased, the more we can be sure this site is financially strong and can support the posting forum. The posting forum cannot support itself.
Charlie
Ok, I'll match MY 37 game database with the past 37 game SB database.
NE and Carolina have both played a preponderance of games where they the winner has been decided by 7 or less. It would be a very easy argument that these teams play close games, so the ML should be deflated.
I gotta love the comments like the ML should be -170. WOW. Does anyone out there actually bet the NFL. 3,4,6,7. If you think that these numbers don't have great chances to hit, well head right on over to Pinny's margin of victory props, bet on the "no"s on NE by 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and get ready to make a fortune!
NE and Carolina have both played a preponderance of games where they the winner has been decided by 7 or less. It would be a very easy argument that these teams play close games, so the ML should be deflated.
I gotta love the comments like the ML should be -170. WOW. Does anyone out there actually bet the NFL. 3,4,6,7. If you think that these numbers don't have great chances to hit, well head right on over to Pinny's margin of victory props, bet on the "no"s on NE by 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 and get ready to make a fortune!
OOPS! Two corrections.
1) Based on all those CAr/Ne games you could argue the favorite ML should be INFLATED.
2) Pinny (right now) is only letting you bet "yes" on Margin of Victory. But I imagine they will open up "no" on each number later this week.....if so it will make for some interesting situations.
1) Based on all those CAr/Ne games you could argue the favorite ML should be INFLATED.
2) Pinny (right now) is only letting you bet "yes" on Margin of Victory. But I imagine they will open up "no" on each number later this week.....if so it will make for some interesting situations.
I guess that is why they play the game oldmanTed. I have felt the entire 2nd half of the season that the league was mediocre at best this year, but within that NE was a clear standout. I think they'll dominate, even if they don't have one the the top all-time defenses. Their 2ndary is not going to be picked apart by Delhomme(sp?) and indeed they will pick-off one or two or three instead.
Just my thoughts. See ya all on Monday.
Just my thoughts. See ya all on Monday.
Fezzik, I stand corrected ,I should have said plus 235 not plus 170 for the Carolina ML. I won't bother to edit it, I simply used an incorrect line. I have no excuse except human error. Just a word of advice, your resume is not required in every "who likes who" discussion, I think everyone knows you are an excellent handicapper.
BOL. wil.
BOL. wil.
