Fears of collapse of Iraqi state reignites debate over sacrifices made by Britain to topple Saddam Hussein

Search

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
Iraq is facing a return to its darkest days of civil war after al-Qaeda-linked militants seized a vast swathe of the country’s northern region in a lightning advance which took them to within striking distance of Baghdad.

A day after snatching control of the northern city of Mosul, fighters were on Wednesday night within 60 miles of the Iraqi capital, encountering little resistance from government troops.

1206IraqONLINE_2938914c.jpg


En route they seized major towns, oil refineries and military bases and embarked on an orgy of kidnappings and executions, forcing an exodus of more than half a million people across the north.

The extraordinary developments reignited the political debate about the decision to invade Iraq in 2003 alongside America, a conflict which cost the lives of 179 British Service personnel and cost at least £9 billio
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
The crisis is the most serious to hit Iraq since the summer of 2004, when a joint Sunni-Shia uprising against coalition forces ended hopes of a quick return to peace in the post-Saddam era.
By Wednesday afternoon, the militants were reported to have reached the holy city of Samarra, 60 miles north of Baghdad. It is feared they will try to reignite Iraq’s sectarian civil war by destroying a revered Shia shrine. An al-Qaeda bomb attack on the same shrine in 2006 sparked a two year sectarian conflict that killed an estimated 30,000 Iraqis.
The virtually unopposed advance by the terrorists has caused panic in Baghdad.
There are unconfirmed reports of Shia militias beginning to mobilise in the capital, a sign that the conflict could soon spread beyond the Iraqi government’s control.
Diplomats in Baghdad’s heavily-guarded “Green Zone” were activating contingency plans for emergency evacuations, one private security contractor told The Telegraph.
Mr Maliki has responded to the crisis in his country by asking parliament to declare emergency rule, while Iraq’s foreign minister, Hoshyar Zubari, called on his country’s politicians to bury sectarian differences and face “the serious, mortal” threat. “There has to be a quick response to what has happened,” he said.
As he spoke, however, Iraq’s US-trained forces appeared to melting away rather than putting up any kind of defence. The al-Qaeda offshoot group behind the uprising, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (Syria), which is known as ISIS, declared that it was in “complete control” of roads in and out of Mosul and the surrounding province. Gunmen were reported to have seized an oil refinery in the neighbouring town of Baiji, and kidnapped the head of the Mosul’s Turkish diplomatic mission along with 24 of its staff.
Unconfirmed reports also said that 15 members of the Iraqi security forces had been beheaded near the northern city of Kirkuk after being kidnapped earlier this week.
In the city of Tikrit, the birth place of the late Saddam Hussein, the governor was reported to have gone missing after militants over-ran his building on Wednesday. Roads across the region were jammed with queues of fleeing traffic, many of them driving past checkpoints abandoned by the Iraqi army.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
The militants are consolidating positions in Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown, which they took on Tuesday, a day after capturing Mosul, Iraq's second city.
ISIS, which is also known as ISIL, is an offshoot of al-Qaeda. It controls a large swathe of territory in eastern Syria and western and central Iraq, in a campaign to set up a Sunni militant enclave straddling the border.
'Fighting devils'In a statement, the UN Security Council said it "deplored in the strongest terms the recent events in the city of Mosul".
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called on "the international community to unite in showing solidarity with Iraq as it confronts this serious security challenge".
_75460367_iraq_mosul_map_624.gif

_75464383_1rozy10n.jpg
Security vehicles were destroyed in Mosul

_75464737_tnmnruy4.jpg
ISIS fighters with an army vehicle in Tikrit

_75464802_mv11x53b.jpg
A propaganda video shows ISIS fighters recently in Nineveh province

 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
ISIS in Iraq
  • The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters, and grew out of an al-Qaeda-linked organisation in Iraq
  • ISIS has exploited the standoff between the Iraqi government and the minority Sunni Arab community, which complains that Shia PM Nouri Maliki is monopolising power
  • It has already taken over Ramadi and Falluja, but taking over Mosul is a far greater feat than anything the movement has achieved so far, and will send shockwaves throughout the region
  • The organisation is led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - an obscure figure regarded as a battlefield commander and tactician. He was once the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, one of the groups that later became ISIS.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens


  • [*=center].

_75458943_022551210-1.jpg
The Iraqi interior ministry released this image of Baghdadi in January 2014

.



Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), has been careful to reveal little about himself and his whereabouts.
There are only two authenticated photos of him, and unlike al-Qaeda leaders such as Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, he does not appear in video messages.
Even his own fighters reportedly do not speak about seeing him face to face.
The ISIS chief also appears to wear a mask to address his commanders, earning the nickname "the invisible sheikh".
But Baghdadi - a nom de guerre, rather than his real name - has good reason to maintain a veil of mystery, says the BBC's Security Correspondent, Frank Gardner.
One of his predecessors, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi who headed the most violent jihadist group in Iraq until his death, was a high-profile showman whose secret location was eventually tracked down. He was killed in a US bombing raid in 2006.




_75463971_022639695-1.jpg





ISIS militants have previously seized parts of Iraq's Anbar province and more recently Mosul and Tikrit

The leader of al-Qaeda's current incarnation in Iraq may be a shadowy figure, but his organisation ISIS is pulling in thousands of new recruits and has become one of the most cohesive militias in the Middle East, our correspondent adds.
Highly organisedBaghdadi is believed to have been born in Samarra, north of Baghdad, in 1971.
Reports suggest he was a cleric in a mosque in the city around the time of the US-led invasion in 2003.
Some believe he was already a militant jihadist during the rule of Saddam Hussein. Others suggest he was radicalised during the four years he was held at Camp Bucca, a US facility in southern Iraq where many al-Qaeda commanders were detained.





_75463969_cd81f22d-d8df-4731-a3b9-176a6356b14e.jpg





The US government released an image of the ISIS leader and offered a reward of $10m

He emerged as the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, one of the groups that later became ISIS, in 2010, and rose to prominence during the attempted merger with al-Nusra Front in Syria.
He has not sworn allegiance to the leader of the al-Qaeda network, Zawahiri, who has urged ISIS to focus on Iraq and leave Syria to al-Nusra.
Baghdadi and his fighters have openly defied the al-Qaeda chief, leading some commentators to believe he now holds higher prestige among many Islamist militants.
"The true heir to Osama bin Laden may be ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi," David Ignatiuswrote in The Washington Post.
Zawahiri still has a lot of power by virtue of his franchises in Pakistan and the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa.
But Baghdadi has a reputation as a highly organised and ruthless battlefield tactician, which analysts say makes his organisation more attractive to young jihadists than that of Zawahiri, an Islamic theologian.
In October 2011, the US officially designated Baghdadi as "terrorist" andoffered a $10m ($6m; 7m euros) reward for information leading to his capture or death.
It notes Baghdadi's aliases, including Abu Duaa and Dr Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Samarrai.
As well as the uncertainty surrounding his true identity, his whereabouts are also unclear with reports he was in Raqqa in Syria.
So there remain more questions than answers about the leader of one of the world's most dangerous jihadist groups.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
_75437377_75437206.jpg

.



Jihadist militants have taken control of Iraq's second largest city, Mosul, the most dramatic success yet in a rapidly expanding insurgency that appears to have caught the authorities off guard.
What's going on?Deadly clashes erupted in Mosul on 6 June, when militants from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), an offshoot of al-Qaeda, launched an assault on the northern city with allied Sunni Arab tribesmen.
On Monday, the governor of Nineveh province urged residents to "stand firm". But within hours, Atheel al-Nujaifi was forced to flee before the provincial government's headquarters was overrun by hundreds of men armed with rocket-propelled grenades, sniper rifles and machine-guns.
_74449857_1.jpg

By Tuesday, tens of thousands of residents had left for the nearby Kurdish-controlled region as the militants seized Mosul's airport, army operations centre and other installations. They also set fire to police stations and freed hundreds of detainees. Police and soldiers dropped their weapons and abandoned their posts as the assault became a rout.
Convoys of militants moved southwards on Wednesday, first attacking the town of Baiji and then reportedly overrunning Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit, the administrative capital of Salahuddin province.
In pictures: Iraqis flee Mosul
Profile: Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS)
_66239292_line2.gif

Why is Mosul so important?Jump media player
Media player help

Out of media player. Press enter to return or tab to continue.


Mosul is a key trading hub close to the Syrian and Turkish borders

Mosul is the second city to fall to ISIS this year, after Falluja. However, its loss is much more serious for the government, as it is the main city of northern Iraq and a major political and economic centre, , with a population of 1.8 million. It is also gateway to Syria and Turkey.
After the US-led invasion in 2003, Mosul became a bastion of resistance to the occupation, which its Sunni Arab majority opposed and Kurdish minority supported. Years of bombings and shootings by militants linked to al-Qaeda led to an exodus of thousands of people.
It was not until 2009 that a semblance of normality returned to Mosul, but jihadists maintained a firm hold. Sectarian violence increased after US troops withdrew in 2011. It has surged since early 2013 when Shia Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's government launched an offensive against ISIS while also moving against Sunni opposition figures and protesters.


How has the government responded?
_75437411_761e09b7-f35c-4ac9-a01f-6b104d010a2f.jpg
Tens of thousands of Nineveh residents have left for the nearby Kurdish-controlled region

The prime minister has pressed parliament to declare a 30-day state of emergency that would give security forces the "necessary powers" to regain control.
A vote will be held on Thursday. Mr Maliki also said citizens would be armed to fight the militants.
The sudden collapse of the security forces in Mosul alarmed the US. It called on the Iraqi government to "step up to the plate", warning that ISIS was "a threat to the entire region". It pledged to help Baghdad "push back this aggression".
_66239292_line2.gif

Can the government regain control?
_72071781_5a1e44e2-0258-4c08-b283-ca1fb42b57e9.jpg
Sunni militants linked to al-Qaeda have been operating openly in Falluja over the past six months

The Iraqi government is believed to have about 930,000 security personnel under its command, so on paper they ought to be able to easily overcome the hundreds of militants who attacked Mosul.
However, the same might have been said in late December after ISIS militants and allied tribesmen seized parts of Ramadi, the capital of the western province of Anbar, and most of the nearby city of Falluja amid clashes triggered by the clearance of two protest camps.
_75431596_iraq_deaths_624_v14.gif

Mr Maliki has vowed to crush the militants, but they are still in control six months on, holding off troops. The UN says the fighting in Anbar has displaced some 480,000 people.
Soldiers have become disillusioned by the conflict against ISIS and brutal attacks by the group - including beheadings and crucifixions - leading many to desert. Commanders told the New York Times they were losing as many as 300 soldiers a day to desertions, deaths and injuries.
 

Rx Normal
Joined
Oct 23, 2013
Messages
52,417
Tokens
Iraq Said to Seek U.S. Strikes on Militants

"But Iraq’s appeals for military assistance have so far been rebuffed by the White House, which has been reluctant to open a new chapter in a conflict that President Obama has insisted was closed when the United States withdrew the last of its forces from Iraq in 2011."

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/iraq-asked-us-for-airstrikes-on-militants-officials-say.html?_r=0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another complete fuck up by the illegal alien Kenyan.

Unreal.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2006
Messages
24,884
Tokens

That's simplistic cartoonish BS Guesser and you know it. It was not Bush who pulled US forces out of Iraq in 2011, but Obama. He actually campaigned that the "Real War" was in Afghanistan. As if terrorists have borders. ISIS, which I already made a thread about, is also slashing throats and lopping off heads in Syria. If anyone politicizes war it's Obama who campaigned to end one war he didn't support by pretending to want to escalate another war he didn't support, because it was politically expedient. No one can wind the clock back but after 9/11 were Obama president I'll bet we wouldn't have retaliated at all.

Anyway, it was not likely George Bush' idea to hang a "Mission Accomplished" sign same as it was not likely Obama who tweeted, "This isn't 1963 anymore" regarding the moon landing.
 

Member
Joined
Aug 6, 2006
Messages
24,884
Tokens
The Return of Al-Qaeda - David Ignatius
The capture Tuesday of Mosul, the hub of northern Iraq, by al-Qaeda-linked militants is an alarm bell that violent extremists are on the rise again in the Middle East. Just 19 months ago, President Obama won reelection arguing that his policies had vanquished the most dangerous core elements of al-Qaeda. The return of al-Qaeda isn't Obama's fault, but the organization has morphed, and deadly new battles are ahead. (Washington Post)


 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
That's simplistic cartoonish BS Guesser and you know it. It was not Bush who pulled US forces out of Iraq in 2011, but Obama. He actually campaigned that the "Real War" was in Afghanistan. As if terrorists have borders. ISIS, which I already made a thread about, is also slashing throats and lopping off heads in Syria. If anyone politicizes war it's Obama who campaigned to end one war he didn't support by pretending to want to escalate another war he didn't support, because it was politically expedient. No one can wind the clock back but after 9/11 were Obama president I'll bet we wouldn't have retaliated at all.

Anyway, it was not likely George Bush' idea to hang a "Mission Accomplished" sign same as it was not likely Obama who tweeted, "This isn't 1963 anymore" regarding the moon landing.

He certainly wouldn't have invaded Iraq, toppled Sadaam, and let Iraq become the Hotbed for Iran and AQ Branch Off Terrorist groups that it is today. Invading Iraq and Taking down Sadaam, and removing a Strong Arab counter to Iran and AQ is the single worst Foreign Policy decision since the Vietnam War, and it will continue to cost the region for years.
GWB may not have physically hung the banner, but he DID say The Following. "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended," Bush said, the infamous "Mission Accomplished" banner hovering over him. "In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." He may not have physically hung the banner, but he verbally conveyed the message. There's hardly any comparison to a tweet sentt out about the wrong Moon landing year by someone with little connection to The President.
I have criticized Obama repeatedly for staying in Iraq and Afghanistan for too long, and will continue to. He should have pulled our troops out of Iraq in 2009, and Afghanistan the day after Bin Laden was put in the Ocean. What's happening now in Iraq and what will happen in Afghanistan is what happens when you engage in wars that are unwinnable, barring permanent huge occupation forces, which are not sustainable physically nor economically. The Soviet Union learned that lesson.
If you object to simple cartoonish BS, I hope you'll be consistent in decrying Simplistic Cartoonish BS down here, such as Obama's workout Postings or Gum Chewing.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
[h=1]Security collapse in Iraqi city of Mosul is not solely Maliki's responsibility[/h]The fact Islamist extremists have seized control of much of Iraq's second biggest city reflects badly on Obama's administration
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
[FONT=arial, sans-serif]Nouri al-Maliki[/FONT], [FONT=arial, sans-serif]Iraq[/FONT]'s tough-guy prime minister, bears much responsibility for the [FONT=arial, sans-serif]security collapse in Mosul and surrounding areas in the face of this week's hard-driving Islamist military offensive[/FONT]. But others must take their share of the blame, including the Obama administration, which appears once again to be asleep at the wheel.
 

New member
Joined
Nov 10, 2010
Messages
78,682
Tokens
But this latest collapse reflects badly on the Obama administration, which signed a series of security pacts, including a strategic framework agreement, with the Maliki government when US troops finally left in 2011. The idea (in a worrying echo of Afghanistan) was that Washington would help Baghdad to build an effective, well-trained national army.





Since then, however, the US has been busy turning oil-rich Iraq into a lucrative market for American arms sales while doing nothing much, in practical terms, about the looming Islamist threat. These advanced weapons were intended to bolster government forces. Now some of them could soon fall into the hands of the Islamists.
"Our shipments have included delivery of 300 Hellfire missiles, millions of rounds of small arms fire, thousands of rounds of tank ammunition, helicopter-fired rockets, machine guns, grenades, sniper rifles, M16 and M4 rifles to the Iraqi security agencies," the White House said this week. In January, Congress gave a green light to the sale of 24 Apache attack helicopters in a deal valued at $6.2bn (£3.7bn).





This US policy of arming the locals is now looking dangerously inept, to say the least. A recent offer by Iran, an ally of Iraq's government in the region-wide Shia-Sunni standoff, to help Maliki combat extremismhighlighted the extent to which outside forces have taken advantage of the growing security vacuum in Iraq and Syria. Tehran's involvement is galling for Washington, which fought (in theory at least) for eight years to create a unified, pro-western democracy in Iraq despite subversive Iranian meddling.
But Obama has made it clear, most recently in his West Point speech, that he is against sending troops back to combat theatres in the Middle East, or anywhere else for that matter – a position enthusiastically applauded in Tehran. The bottom-line message from Washington to the hapless Maliki, as to Syria's pro-western opposition groups, is that when push comes to shove, as it did this week, you are on your own.
 

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
87,149
Tokens
the least prepared man in the room's naiviety and ignorance is fucking up the entire world on so many levels

forget about the worst economy since the great depression
forget about setting racial tensions back 35 years
forget about setting back national pride and personal ambition
forget about all the hardships caused by the higher energy prices he espouses and condones

have you ever seen such a dysfunctional foreign policy? He makes Jimmy Carter look like a fucking genius

seems like security is dissolving all over the world, once again proving how important a strong US government is to international peace

peace through strength, as important now as it ever was

The weak international leadership and piss poor economies of the 1930's led us to WWII, we're heading down that same sort of path today (on this point, it's not just our leadership or economy, it's shared with the rest of "western civilization")
 

Conservatives, Patriots & Huskies return to glory
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
87,149
Tokens
So the surge worked to perfection

and Obama's policies are increasing civilian deaths

what a surprise

and let's nip the idiocy in the bud, does anyone think we're secure and our interests are secure and our lifestyle will be unchanged if the world is in turmoil? Is anyone really that naive?







_75431596_iraq_deaths_624_v14.gif
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
The surge was an absolute disaster that just delayed the inevitable while costing us more troops' lives and $$$$. The catalyst was the original disastorous Invasion by GWB.

Mosul’s Fall the Inevitable Consequence of the ‘Surge’
Posted By David P. Goldman On June 10, 2014 @ 11:39 pm In Uncategorized | 20 Comments
Four years ago I predicted that the result of America’s apparently successful effort to contain violence in Iraq through the so-called “surge” would be a devastating and uncontrollable civil war in Iraq. I titled the essay “Gen. Petraeus’ Thirty Years War,” arguing that
Petraeus created a balance of power between Sunnis and Shi’ites by reconstructing the former’s fighting capacity, while persuading pro-Iranian militants to bide their time. To achieve this balance of power, though, he built up Sunni military power to the point that – for the first time in Iraq’s history – Sunnis and Shi’ites are capable of fighting a full-dress civil war with professional armed forces.
Gen. David Petraeus, then the American commander in Iraq, quieted the Sunni opposition to the American-backed Shi’ite majority government by giving them money and weapons. By doing so the U.S. rebuilt the Sunni military capability that it had ruined in 2003 when it destroyed the government of Saddam Hussein. With the fighting capacity of the Sunni minority now on par with the Shi’ite-majority government army, as we saw in the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
I have nothing to add to what I wrote four years ago about the bungling of the Bush administration as compounded by Obama. The present disaster in Iraq is not wholly of our making, but American policy was a key enabler. The “surge” made it inevitable. There will be no resolution now without the exhaustion of the contending forces, in a long war of attrition with dreadful consequences for civilians, starting with the 500,000 who fled Mosul this week.
In a broader sense, American bungling set the stage for Syria’s civil war as well. I had the Ghost of Cardinal Richelieu explain why in a 2012 essay:
Richelieu looked at me with what might have been contempt. “It is a simple exercise in logique. You had two Ba’athist states, one in Iraq and one in Syria. Both were ruled by minorities. The Assad family came from the Alawite minority Syria and oppressed the Sunnis, while Saddam Hussein came from the Sunni minority in Iraq and oppressed the Shi’ites.
It is a matter of calculation – what today you would call game theory. If you compose a state from antagonistic elements to begin with, the rulers must come from one of the minorities. All the minorities will then feel safe, and the majority knows that there is a limit to how badly a minority can oppress a majority. That is why the Ba’ath Party regimes in Iraq and Syria – tyrannies founded on the same principle – were mirror images of each other.”
“What happens if the majority rules?,” I asked.
“The moment you introduce majority rule in the tribal world,” the cardinal replied, “you destroy the natural equilibrium of oppression.
“The minorities have no recourse but to fight, perhaps to the death.”
We Republican warhawks wonder why the public abhors us and our own party has rejected us. Our bungling has made a bad situation much, much worse, and the consequences of our ideological rigidity and cultural illiteracy will haunt us for a generation.

***
Below are excerpts from my 2010 essay, originally published in Asia Times Online May 4, 2010.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/NB28Dj06.html
Memo to heads of state: beware the clever general who turns up at a tough moment, and says “Leave it to me: I can fix it for you.” Two examples come to mind. The great field marshal of the Thirty Years War of 1618-1648, Albrecht von Wallenstein, taught armies to live off the land, and succeeded so well that nearly half the people of Central Europe starved to death during the conflict.
General David Petraeus, who heads America’s Central Command (CENTCOM), taught the land to live off him. Petraeus’ putative success in the Iraq “surge” of 2007-2008 is one of the weirder cases of Karl Marx’s quip of history repeating itself first as tragedy second as farce. The consequences will be similar, that is, hideous.
Wallenstein put 100,000 men into the field, an army of terrifying size for the times, by turning the imperial army into a parasite that consumed the livelihood of the empire’s home provinces. The Austrian Empire fired him in 1629 after five years of depredation, but pressed him back into service in 1631. Those who were left alive joined the army, in a self-feeding spiral of destruction on a scale not seen in Europe since the 8th century. Wallenstein’s power grew with the implosion of civil society, and the Austrian emperor had him murdered in 1634.
Petraeus accomplished the same thing with (literally) bags of money. Starting with Iraq, the American military has militarized large parts of the Middle East and Central Asia in the name of pacification. And now America is engaged in a grand strategic withdrawal from responsibility in the region, leaving behind men with weapons and excellent reason to use them.
Petraeus’ “surge” of 2007-2008 drastically reduced the level of violence in Iraq by absorbing most of the available Sunni fighters into an American-financed militia, the “Sons of Iraq,” or Sunni Awakening. With American money, weapons and training, the remnants of Saddam Hussein’s regime have turned into a fighting force far more effective than the defunct dictator’s state police….
Petraeus created a balance of power between Sunnis and Shi’ites by reconstructing the former’s fighting capacity, while persuading pro-Iranian militants to bide their time. To achieve this balance of power, though, he built up Sunni military power to the point that – for the first time in Iraq’s history – Sunnis and Shi’ites are capable of fighting a full-dress civil war with professional armed forces. “Nation-building” in Iraq failed to construct any function feature of civil society — a concept hitherto unknown to Mesopotamia — except, of course, for the best-functioning organized groups of killers that Iraq ever has had.
….
An old Israeli joke says that you can’t buy an Arab, but you can rent one. An October 16, 2007, report describes the first meeting between the then commander of American forces in Iraq, Major General Rick Lynch, and his superior, Petraeus, with Sunni tribal leaders:
One mentions weapons, but the general insists: “I can give you money to work in terms of improving the area. What I cannot do – this is very important – is give you weapons.”
The gravity of the war council in a tent at the US forward operating base at Camp Assassin is suspended for a few moments as one of the local Iraqi leaders says jokingly but knowingly: “Don’t worry! Weapons are cheap in Iraq.”
“That’s right, that’s exactly right,” laughs Lynch in reply.
….
Having armed all sides of the conflict and kept them apart by the threat of arms, the United States now expects to depart leaving in place governments of national reconciliation that will persuade well-armed and well-organized militias to play by the rules. It is perhaps the silliest thing an imperial power ever has done. The British played at divide and conquer, whereas the Americans propose to divide and disappear.
At some point the whole sorry structure will collapse, and no-one knows it better than Petraeus. There are many possible triggers. The Iraqi government might collapse, leaving the political agenda to the men with guns. Iran might acquire a deliverable bomb and turn its dogs lose in Iraq after the Americans withdraw. Iran and Pakistan might come to blows over the fractious province of Balochistan on their mutual border, or over Iran’s covert support for Pakistan’s Shi’ites, who comprise a fifth of the country’s population. Or the Israelis might strike Iran’s nuclear program, or Syria, or the Hezbollah clients of Syrian and Iran in Lebanon.
Because Petraeus sold the “surge” to former president George W Bush, allowing the Republicans to claim a certain degree of success for the largely unpopular Iraq War, his influence vastly exceeds that of a career officer. He became a Republican hero for pulling the party’s political chestnuts out of the fire. American conservatives lionized him; this month the American Enterprise Institute will give him its Irving Kristol award, named after the intellectual architect of modern conservatism. Norman Podhoretz, the former editor of Commentary magazine and the dean of Jewish conservatives, wrote in his book World War IV, “It took Lincoln three years to find Sherman and Grant. It took George Bush three years to find Petraeus.”
….
All this leaves the region in an icy calm, as all the players wait to see who will make the first move. Thanks to American money and American training, the next round of the game in Iraq will be played for keeps. And if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon — as it could do in the absence of military intervention — the doll’s-house balance of power built by the United States will disappear.


Article printed from Spengler: http://pjmedia.com/spengler
URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2014/06/10/mosuls-fall-the-inevitable-consequence-of-the-surge/
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Bl...aq-Pullout_Iraq-Sunni-Militia-140611-721.html

[h=1]Blaming Obama for Iraq's Chaos[/h] By Robert Parry (about the author) Permalink (Page 1 of 2 pages)
Related Topic(s): Assad; Iraq Occupation Strategy; Iraq Pullout; Iraq Sunni Militia; Neocons; Obama Effect; Political; Syria, Add Tags Add to My Group(s)
View Ratings | Rate It

Headlined to H2 6/11/14
  1. Become a Fan
    (50 fans)

Cross-posted from Consortium News

After Islamic militants captured the major Iraqi city of Mosul on Tuesday, the danger of Official Washington's false narratives again asserted itself, a direct consequence of the failure to enforce any meaningful accountability on the neocons and others who pushed the Iraq War.
The emerging neocon-preferred narrative is that the jihadist victory in the northern city of Mosul and the related mess in neighboring Syria are the fault of President Barack Obama for not continuing the U.S. military occupation of Iraq indefinitely and for not intervening more aggressively in Syria's civil war.
For instance, the New York Times on Wednesday wrote that "the swift capture of large areas of [Mosul] by militants aligned with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria represented a climactic moment on a long trajectory of Iraq's unraveling since the withdrawal of American forces at the end of 2011."

What is perhaps most striking about such accounts, which are appearing across the major U.S. media, is that the narrative doesn't go back to the most obvious starting point: President George W. Bush's illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003. It was that invasion and the ensuing occupation that hurtled Iraq and -- to an extent -- Syria into their current chaos.
Bush's invasion, which was justified by bogus claims about Iraq hiding weapons of mass destruction, was in clear violation of international law, lacking the explicit approval of the United Nations Security Council. Yet, even after the WMD falsehoods were exposed and the body counts soared, there was almost no accountability enforced either on the public officials who carried out the aggressive war or on the opinion leaders who rationalized it.
In many cases, the same pundits and pols continue to shape U.S. public opinion today and are dominating the narratives on Iraq and Syria. Thus, there is almost no attention to the fact that before the U.S. overthrow (and subsequent hanging) of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, there was no al-Qaeda threat in Iraq or Syria.
That threat emerged only after the U.S. invasion and the Bush administration's rash decision to disband the Iraqi army. Then, as U.S. forces fought to crush Sunni resistance to Iraq's new U.S.-backed Shiite-dominated government, Iraq became a magnet for Sunni extremists from across the Middle East, a force that coalesced into the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
Yet, the great divide in the Iraq War narrative came in 2007-08 when the neocons sought to salvage their blood-spattered reputations by inserting the myth of the "successful surge," hailing Bush's decision to escalate the war by dispatching some 30,000 additional U.S. troops. Though the "surge" initially was accompanied by a surge in killing, the gradual reduction in the violence was cited as proof of Bush's heroic wisdom.
Other explanations for the decline in Iraqi violence were ignored, including the fact that some key policies, such as buying-off Sunni tribes in Anbar Province and applying high-tech methods for hunting down al-Qaeda leaders, were initiated before the surge although their impact only became clear later. And, the violence also subsided because the Iraqi people finally recognized that a timetable was being set for the removal of all U.S. troops, a process completed in 2011.
However, across Official Washington, the simplistic -- and self-serving -- conventional wisdom was that the "surge" was the sole explanation for the drop in the killings, a myth that had lethal consequences in 2009 when pro-surge hardliners, such as Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Gen. David Petraeus and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maneuvered President Obama into adopting a similar "surge" in Afghanistan.
The Unsuccessful Surges
It should now be clear that neither "surge" was successful in altering the strategic arc of those two conflicts. At best, one could say that the military "surges" -- paid for by about 1,000 U.S. military deaths each and many tens of billions of dollars -- bought time for Bush and his neocon advisers to depart the government before the ultimate failures of their war polices became obvious, a "decent interval" that now has enabled these war architects to reframe the narrative and shift the blame to Obama.

The new narrative, which you can find across the media spectrum, is that Obama is to blame for the unfolding disaster in Iraq because he didn't insist on continuing the U.S. military occupation indefinitely. He's also being blamed for the spread of Islamic militancy in Syria because he resisted demands from Official Washington's opinion leaders for a major U.S. intervention aimed at overthrowing Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
Thus, the same U.S. news media that fumes over speculation that Russia may somehow be aiding separatists in eastern Ukraine and sputters about Moscow's violations of international law has been openly lusting for an expanded U.S. military intervention in Syria in clear violation of international law.
Though U.S. assistance to Syrian rebels has so far been limited to light arms and non-lethal supplies, U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have been the principal supporters of radical Sunni jihadists who have flocked from around the Middle East to wage war against Syria's government, which is run by Assad, an Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.
Regarding Syria, Official Washington's narrative is that if only Obama had intervened earlier in support of "moderate" rebels or if he had launched a full-scale bombing campaign last summer as he threatened, everything would have worked out just wonderfully -- Assad would be gone and "moderates" would be governing Syria.
The fact that none of the U.S. interventions in the Middle East have had such a happy ending doesn't deter this latest "group think" on Syria.

Besides the bloody examples of Iraq and Afghanistan, there is the case of Libya where Obama acceded to the demands of his war hawks, including Secretary Clinton and now-Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power. He committed U.S. air power to remove Muammar Gaddafi (who was later captured and murdered), only to see Libya descend into chaos, violence that has fed Islamic radicalism (including the lethal attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi in 2012) and has spread to Mali and other nearby African countries.
Obama's Real Failure
If Obama is to be criticized for his handling of the Middle East, it would make more sense to excoriate him for not making a clean break with the neocon strategies of the Bush years and for not purging the U.S. government of hawks who are too eager to use military force.
Rather than adopt realistic approaches toward achieving political solutions, Obama has often caved in when confronted with pressure from Official Washington's still influential neocons and the mainstream media that follows their lead.
For instance, Obama could accept help from Iran and Russia in achieving a negotiated settlement of the Syrian civil war but that would require him getting down off his high horse about how "Assad must go." This month's Syrian elections -- despite their shortcomings -- showed that Assad retains significant public support from the Alawites, Shiites, Christians, secularists, and even some Sunnis.
But a workable peace negotiation also would require Obama to acknowledge that Shiite-ruled Iran has legitimate interests in the region, and he might have to shake hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the current bete noire of all the smart people in Washington.
Rather than dealing with the real world where the United States might have to settle for the best of the worst options, there are signs that Obama is again falling in line with the preferred neocon strategy of expanded U.S. military assistance to Syria's supposedly "moderate" opposition, thus widening and prolonging the civil war and resulting in more chaos and death.
The notion that Syria's "moderates" can somehow fight a two-front war against both Assad's army and the Islamists who have been the most effective force against Assad has become the latest wishful thinking of Official Washington's best and brightest, similar to their earlier certainty that the U.S. invading army in Iraq would be greeted with flowers and candies.
As the Washington Post's David Ignatius -- often a mouthpiece for U.S. intelligence -- put it on Wednesday...
"The administration is finally developing a serious strategy for Syria, which will include a CIA-trained guerrilla army to fight both President Bashar al-Assad and al-Qaeda extremists. In addition, (if skittish Arab allies agree), U.S. Special Operations forces will train Free Syrian Army units to create a stabilization force for liberated areas. If the ambitious plan moves forward, the hope is to train 9,600 fighters by the end of this year."​
Similar delusional thinking about a two-front war has been at the forefront of the State Department's deliberations on Syria. Ex-U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert S. Ford wrote on the New York Times' op-ed page on Wednesday...
"...with partner countries from the Friends of Syria group like France, Britain, Germany, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, we must ramp up sharply the training and material aid provided to the moderates in the armed opposition."​
But it has been Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia that have been most directly implicated in helping al-Qaeda-linked jihadists to flood Syria in the first place. Their thinking was that it would be better to have Sunni extremists controlling Syria than Assad because the Sunni powers and Israel see the spread of Iran's regional influence as their greatest threat. [See Consortiumnews.com's "Israel Sides with Syrian Jihadists."]
There is also the question of whether there remains any real nucleus of "moderate" Syrian rebels who could carry out this two-front war. Last September, 11 leading rebel groups repudiated the U.S.-backed civilian opposition and sided with al-Qaeda-connected Islamists in their demands for a religious state to replace Assad's more secular regime.
The New York Times reported then that the rebel groups were "distancing themselves from the exile opposition's call for a democratic, civil government to replace Mr. Assad" and urging "all military and civilian groups in Syria to 'unify in a clear Islamic frame.'" [See Consortiumnews.com's "Syria Rebels Embrace Al-Qaeda."]
Going back at least to 2003, this more complete -- and more troubling -- narrative would better inform the debate that Official Washington should be having about the twin crises in Iraq and Syria, a discussion that should not shy away from the devastating role that the neocons have played in undermining real U.S. interests in the Middle East and around the world.
However, if you rely on the mainstream media, you can look forward to the more truncated narrative, the one that the neocons prefer, the one that starts in 2011 and pins the blame on President Obama.
 

Banned
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
15,948
Tokens
[h=2]Voice[/h] [h=1]The myth of the "surge"[/h]
090710_waltb.jpg

With the level of violence rising and the Kurds pressing for a level of autonomy that borders on independence, can we finally dispense with the myth that the 2007 "surge" in Iraq was a success?

The surge had two main goals. The first goal was to bring the level of violence down by increasing U.S. force levels in key areas, forging a tactical alliance with cooperative Sunni groups, and shifting to a counterinsurgency strategy that emphasized population protection. This aspect of the surge succeeded, though it is still hard to know how much of the progress was due to increased force levels and improved tactics and how much was due to other developments, such as the prior "ethnic cleansing" that had separated the contending groups.

The second and equally important goal was to promote political reconciliation among the competing factions in Iraq. This goal was not achieved, and the consequences of that failure are increasingly apparent. What lies ahead is a long-delayed test of strength between the various contending groups, until a new formula for allocating political power emerges. That formula has been missing since before the United States invaded -- that is, Washington never had a plausible plan for reconstructing a workable Iraqi state once it dismantled Saddam's regime -- and it will be up to the Iraqi people to work it out amongst themselves. It won’t be pretty.

With the passage of time, the "surge" should be seen as a well-intentioned attempt to staunch the violence temporarily and let President Bush hand the problem off to his successor. Hawks will undoubtedly try to pin the blame on Obama by claiming that we were (finally) winning by the time Bush left office, in the hope that Americans have forgotten the strategic objectives that the "surge" was supposed to achieve. It's a bogus argument, but what would you expect from the folks who got us in there in the first place?
 

Member
Joined
Apr 14, 2006
Messages
26,039
Tokens
Sooooo.....when is Obama going to have those "unconditional talks" with Islamic leaders again? Should work wonders.

Nice call
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,922
Messages
13,575,244
Members
100,883
Latest member
iniesta2025
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com