Favs vs. Dogs

suetoneous · Sep 21, 2003

I don't mean to look dumb here, but I thought it's a good day for the books if the majority of games the dogs cover, and if the favs cover it's bad for the books...as most will play the favs to cover/win.

Is this right or wrong?

TheGeneral+ · Sep 21, 2003

Generally the squares are on favs and overs.

There are way more squares than sharps.

DarrylParsons · Sep 21, 2003

The General is right but the sharps make much larger bets on average, so it's not always clear which side is getting more action.

If a game is nationally televised (like most NFL games) then probably the square action dominates. If not, then the sharps direct the action most of the time I would say.

DarrylParsons · Sep 21, 2003

Also, Pinnacle is full of sharps, so their number often represents the sharp consensus opinion, while BoDog has lots of squares, so their number is a good barometer for the opinion of the general public.

Java · Sep 21, 2003

If a book balances the action properly, they should get their 4.5% hold no matter who wins, on average.

suetoneous · Sep 21, 2003

So generally, very generally speaking the books want dogs to win/cover - dogs covered/won in all the late games, Greenbay yet to play. So how is it that JJ and TTinCo can claim with seeming so much certainty that books are getting killed today? Most books it seems will have different action.How cn anyone know how books are fairing on any given day, or week?

And I doubt very seriously that JJ and TTinCo have real contacts with any sportsbook...If so, I'd like to know which one(s).

BillDozer · Sep 21, 2003

wow suetoneus,
picking your nose with your dinner napkin huh...

jjgold · Sep 23, 2003

Most books do not have balanced action anymore.

TheGeneral+ · Sep 23, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Darryl Parsons:
Also, Pinnacle is full of sharps, so their number often represents the sharp consensus opinion, while BoDog has lots of squares, so their number is a good barometer for the opinion of the general public.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good post darryl.

ericdixon · Sep 23, 2003

I just don't think the anology is that easy anymore, with all the information available I don't think the assumption that "squares" bet favs all the time is a good one!