Favourites given a big handicap

[acw]

matahari,

How have the large handicaps been doing?
The past two days we had Arsenal-Wolves and Celtic-Hibernian both giving 2 goals and the favourite did cover. Is it still a good thing to bet against the favourite in these situations?

 

[jip]

Don't forget Dundee/Rangers. Rangers partially covered the 1.75 handicap winning 2-0.

 

[acw]

If we start including the 1.75s, then I can go on with Chelsea covering Portsmouth, etc.
Point I am basically trying to make here is that there is not such a thing as simply betting on the outsider of a 2+ handicap. If you want to make money on football, one must simply handicap/price up properly. At this stage I cannot mention one bias, though always betting on Manchester United, which has given one so far at least 10% on turnover for the past five years is getting very close!

 

[matahari]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> At this stage I cannot mention one bias, though always betting on Manchester United, which has given one so far at least 10% on turnover for the past five years is getting very close! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You mean on Man Utd outright or on handicap ? It's indeed true if it's outright, I haven't done any research on handicap though.

 

[acw]

Welcome back matahari!

I haven't done any research on handicap though.
If you keep a record of all the Asian handicaps of all the matches being posted in Macau, you will know, but then you will also know that there are no biases on the handicaps themselves.

What does interest me is that during the past weeks money did continuously come in on outsiders or favourites remained at a too attractive price. Now that I have heard that many middle sized books have gone broke, the old days seem to be back a little, so you may indeed find some more value on the outsiders of large handicaps. Yesterday Rio Ave receiving 2 goals at Indosoccer drifted all the way till kick-off. A bit surprising!

 

[matahari]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>If you keep a record of all the Asian handicaps of all the matches being posted in Macau, you will know, but then you will also know that there are no biases on the handicaps themselves. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I did retrieve it all from tip-ex, just wanted to know if it's worth to check out or not. Btw, it's the opening price I should look for I presume ?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Now that I have heard that many middle sized books have gone broke<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Which ones ? And why did they go broke ? Did they continously overprice favourites ?

 

[acw]

I did retrieve it all from tip-ex
I just had a look at their site, so you paid the 600/1000 Euros subscription?

just wanted to know if it's worth to check out or not.
Well in my database I have some 1000 teams that 'played' at least once in Macau. If I do the ATS on each team, then in absolute terms MU just jumps out big time!
The very interesting question is now: Is it just normal that one of those 1000 teams will pop-up? Or are we dealing with something really special? In all honesty I do not even know.

 

[acw]

Btw, it's the opening price I should look for I presume

quote:
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Now that I have heard that many middle sized books have gone broke
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Which ones ? And why did they go broke ? Did they continously overprice favourites ?
We are talking here about bookies that do not have their own website, but simply quote Indosoccer's prices i.e. and lay those.
Well the price on MU never really moved that much. I guess all these guys have been to eager in laying MU!

 

[matahari]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I did retrieve it all from tip-ex
I just had a look at their site, so you paid the 600/1000 Euros subscription? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, I did. It's for history they're useful, I agree their line tracking is crap and in no way near Don Best, shame the latter doesn't do soccer.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Well the price on MU never really moved that much. I guess all these guys have been to eager in laying MU! <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I don't think a smart book would be hurt too much by losing over time on one specific team.