Fade the smart money (23-7-1)

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm going to be at a career fair for the majority of the day, hopefully I'll be home before 5:00pm. Anyone who doesn't know the system yet, here it is.

Bet on any team with 60+% of the bets, who has the line move 1.5 points or more the other way.

Some games to keep an eye on:

Currently qualifies (need to see if it closes with these numbers)

Penn State at Purdue
Penn State opened at +9.5, now they're +11 with 65% of the bets on them.

Need another .5 point move

UNC Wilmington at William and Mary
UNC Wilmington opened at +7.5, now they're +8.5 with 77% of the bets on them.

Ohio at Western Michigan
Ohio opened at +1, now they're +2 with 76% of the bets on them.

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech opened at -8.5, now they're -7.5 with 63% of the bets on them.

Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa opened at -6.5, now they're -5.5 with 76% of the bets on them.

Wake Forest at NC State
Wake Forest opened at -6, now they're -5.5 with 93% of the bets on them.

St John's at Cincinnati
Cincinnati opened at -9, now they're -8.5 with 89% of the bets on them.

Charlotte at Saint Louis
Saint Louis opened at -4, now they're -3 with 92% of the bets on them.

Need a full point move

Houston at SMU
Houston opened at -8.5, now they're -8 with 89% of the bets on them.

North Carolina at Duke
North Carolina opened at -2, now they're -1.5 with 90% of the bets on them.

New Mexico at Air Force
New Mexico opened at -12.5, now they're -12 with 92% of the bets on them.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Lunch time, I can update now, won't be here until 6:00pm EST again.

<table style="width: 512px; height: 60px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e157384" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157384', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">525 Penn State
526 Purdue
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1679
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">59%
41%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">128 -105
-9.5-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">128 -105
-10.5-109
</td> </tr></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table><table style="width: 513px; height: 66px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e157396" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157396', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">533 Duquesne
534 Richmond
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">729
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">74%
26%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">150 -105
-2-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">149.5 -105
-1.5-102
</td> </tr><tr id="e157399" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157399', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">535 NC Wilmington
536 William & Mary
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">491
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">68%
32%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">139 -105
-7.5-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">139.5 -105
-8.5+100
</td> </tr><tr id="e157408" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157408', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">541 Ohio
542 Western Michigan
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">491
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">73%
27%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">125 -105
-1-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">125o-109
-2-102
</td> </tr><tr id="e157420" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157420', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">549 Georgia Tech
550 Virginia Tech
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1072
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">39%
61%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">139 -105
-8.5-105

</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">139.5 -105
-7.5-101
</td> </tr><tr id="e157432" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157432', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">559 ST John's
560 Cincinnati
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1362
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">13%
87%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">130 -105
-9-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">130.5 -105
-8.5-108
</td> </tr></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table>
<table style="width: 513px; height: 202px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e157447" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157447', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">569 So Illinois
570 Northern Iowa
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1006
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">25%
75%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">121.5 -105
-6.5-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">122 -105
-5.5-108
</td> </tr><tr id="e157450" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157450', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">571 Illinois State
572 Evansville
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">531
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">78%
22%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">0.0-105
127.5 -105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">127.5o-110
-1-103
</td> </tr><tr id="e157459" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157459', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">577 Houston U
578 SMU
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1006
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">91%
9%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-8.5-105
137.5 -105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">-7-105
138.5 -105
</td> </tr><tr id="e157536" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157536', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">579 Charlotte U
580 Saint Louis
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">768
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">9%
91%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">123 -105
-4-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">123o-110
-3.5-104
</td> </tr><tr id="e157477" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157477', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">591 North Carolina
592 Duke
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">6167
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">86%
14%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-2-105
157 -105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">-1.5-103
156 -105
</td> </tr></tbody></table><table><tbody></tbody></table>
<table style="width: 511px; height: 13px;" id="gridtable"><tbody><tr id="e157486" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157486', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">597 Cal Poly S.L.O.
598 CS Northridge
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">135
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">45%
55%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">146.5 -105
-11.5-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">147u-110
-11-108
</td> </tr><tr id="e157489" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157489', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">599 San Diego State
600 Utah U
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">1191
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">27%
73%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">131 -105
-5-105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">132u-110
-4.5-108
</td> </tr><tr id="e157492" ondblclick="highlightRow(this)" onclick="testHit('e157492', event)" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 51);"> <td id="team" width="135">601 New Mexico
602 Air Force
</td> <td id="bets" width="45">610
</td> <td id="spreadpct" style="background-color: rgb(204, 255, 102);" width="40">94%
6%
</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(250, 243, 158);" class="linebox" width="60">-12.5-105
117.5 -105
</td> <td id="sb2_0" class="open" width="60">-12-105
117u-106
</td> </tr></tbody></table>
Houston looking good right now. See you guys tonight (if I'm still awake).

 

[MagicBus]

Why don't you just buy the hook on the 1 pt games? Essentially the same thing correct?

 

[MagicBus]

didn't mean to put the thumbs downhno:

 

[Jetplane]

Wouldn't the play be on GA TECH? confused.

 

[OnWisconsin]

the line has moved a 1 1/2 for the houston game, only one in the tech game. if i understand it right, the tech line would need to change by 1/2 point to be a play.

what is the cutoff time for this? do you wait til close to tip, or do you pull the trigger as soon as the numbers favor it regardless of the time of day?

 

[CharlieHustle1]

So Overall or at the end of a season...

Who wins more bets/$:
Sharps or Squares???

 

[matt4000]

So, what are the final plays?

 

[apacholikewhoa]

if the line changes 1/2 point, the play would be Vtech (not georgia tech) right?

 

[apacholikewhoa]

Why don't you just buy the hook on the 1 pt games? Essentially the same thing correct?

good question:think2:

 

[tlee4lizard]

He is only playing the opening favorite if the line moves for or against 1.5 points . So he could be playing a square play or a sharp play depends on which way the line moves i think that is the way i interpreted it.

EXAMPLE VIRGINIA TECH OPEN -8- NOW 7- IF GETS TO 7 HE PLAYS VIRGINIA TECH -7
SO NOT SURE BUT THE WAY I THINK THIS WOULD BE A SQUARE PLAY BECAUSE VIRGINIA TECH HAS OVER 60% BETS BUT LINE MOVING OTHER WAY.
SO VIRGINIA TECH IS THE SQUARE PLAY HERE AND GEORGIA TECH IS THE SHARP PLAY

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm back people. If any of you ever consider going to one of those sports career fairs to pursue a job in the sports industry, don't. Nothing there but a bunch of commission sales jobs, event jobs and unpaid internships. It's impossible to work in sports unless you know someone.

Why don't I buy the hook? Because the hook doesn't matter in 99.9% of games (made up statistic). I'm just trying to identify winners by how a book moves it's line, not using some mathematical capping system.

Virginia Tech is the play because we are FADING the smart money. If Virginia Tech has the line moving away from it by 1.5 points, yet they have 60%+ percent of the money on them, that means the smart money is on Georgia Tech so we fade them.

I only do it at tip - my system I've been tracking only records tip lines, and it's been successful, so I'm sticking with it.

Guys, it's not complicated. You bet on any team at the tip with 60%+ of the money on them when the line has moved 1.5+ points away from them.

Wake Forest -4.5 is the only play I see right now for the 7:00 games. Opened at -6, down to -4.5 (line moved 1.5 points to NC State) and 82% of the money on Wake.

 

[matt4000]

letsgohoosiers,
can u post the final plays for the evening as they come up for the night, so that we can follow?
This way we can track and know that we are all on the same page!
Thanks,
Matt

 

[BigDon]

Hoosiers, Thanks for posting your system :toast:

How long has this been tracked ? How did it do last year ?

Thanks again..........

 

[Smallplayer]

Wake Forest -4.5[/B] is the only play I see right now for the 7:00 games. Opened at -6, down to -4.5 (line moved 1.5 points to NC State) and 82% of the money on Wake.

So basically this is opposite line movement. The majority of the bets are on WF but the line is going the other way. Ussually more bets and the line should go up and not down.

Are you saying that even though more bets are on WF, more money is on NCSt. coming in from the sharps? So you are fading the sharps?

Hope you can understand me.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Late movement made Wake Forest not a play. Line closed at -5, only a 1 point movement.

 

[matt4000]

The play was wake right?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

No, Wake was not a play. At 6:55 it changed from -4.5 to -5. Win or lose, it's not counted in the record (Wake is up right now).

Again, I encourage you all to sign up for Sports Insights and do the 7 day free trial to get real time odds.

Houston -7 is looking like a play - if it closes at -7 on Pinnacle it's a play.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Play

houston -7

 

[letsgohoosiers]

No other games look like they'll qualify tonight. For those tracking NBA, Lakers +1 and Knicks +5.5 qualify. I'm going to try and get more history to find how this did historically.