Fade the Smart Money (22-6-1)

[letsgohoosiers]

Overall Record: 22-6-1
Posted Record: 2-1

The system:
Bet on any team with -1.5 or more line movement at Pinnacle that has over 60% of bets on them.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 509px; height: 792px;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 35pt;" width="46"> <col style="width: 21pt;" width="28"> <col style="width: 117pt;" width="156"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 26pt;" width="35"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 30pt;" width="40"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 35pt;" width="46" height="20">Date</td> <td style="width: 21pt;" width="28">#</td> <td style="width: 117pt;" width="156">Team</td> <td style="width: 32pt;" width="42">Bets</td> <td style="width: 26pt;" width="35">%</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Op</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Cl</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33">Ch</td> <td style="width: 30pt;" width="40">Res</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">68</td> <td class="xl65">620 Michigan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">16186</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">69%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-6.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">69</td> <td class="xl65">672 Georgia Southern</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1917</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">64%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-13</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-11.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">83</td> <td class="xl65">692 Portland State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1679</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-16.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-14</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">24-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">86</td> <td class="xl65">684 Austin Peay</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1442</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">71%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-8</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">25-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">79</td> <td class="xl65">843 Pittsburgh</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">20859</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">84%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="team" align="right" height="20">27-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">73</td> <td class="xl65">724 Wyoming</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">11157</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-8</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">28-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">86</td> <td class="xl65">538 South Carolina</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">6088</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">73%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-6</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">29-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">62</td> <td class="xl65">761 Saint Marys CA</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">19380</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">8</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">9.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">29-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">66</td> <td class="xl65">714 Cleveland State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">2273</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">63%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-16</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-14.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">78</td> <td class="xl65">543 Oklahoma</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">14298</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">84%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-11</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>PUSH</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">59</td> <td class="xl65">587 UNLV</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">5798</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-10.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl65">530 Xavier</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">4214</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-17.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-16</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">79</td> <td class="xl65">563 Central Florida</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3540</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">74%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-2.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">71</td> <td class="xl65">627 George Mason</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3290</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">88</td> <td class="xl65">619 Saint Louis</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3210</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">69%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">64</td> <td class="xl65">618 Cornell</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1917</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-14.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-13</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">31-Jan</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">53</td> <td class="xl65">698 Coll Charleston</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">848</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">67%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-13.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-12</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">1-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl65">877 Portland State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">6194</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">75%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-6</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">-2</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">2-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">75</td> <td class="xl65">521 Kansas</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">23050</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">61%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">3-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">81</td> <td class="xl65">718 Kent State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">6537</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-15.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-14</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" id="oupct" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">74</td> <td class="xl65">534 Syracuse</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">15684</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">79%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">73</td> <td class="xl65">529 Tulsa</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">4570</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">83%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-2.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">78</td> <td class="xl65">572 Mississippi</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">2946</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td align="right">-4.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">4-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl65">559 James Madison</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">2550</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">78%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-2.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">0</td> <td align="right">-2.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">5-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">52</td> <td class="xl65">783 Morehead State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1838</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">66%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">5-Feb</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">82</td> <td class="xl65">787 Weber State</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1719</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">72%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">0</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td>WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">7-Feb</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">78</td> <td class="xl69">552 Kansas</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">17044</td> <td class="xl70" align="right">60%</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">-12</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">-10.5</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl71">WIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">7-Feb</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">68</td> <td class="xl69">601 Xavier</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">15882</td> <td class="xl70" align="right">76%</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">-6.5</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">-5</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl71">LOSS</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl67" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">7-Feb</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">75</td> <td class="xl69">683 The Citadel</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">2986</td> <td class="xl70" align="right">68%</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">5.5</td> <td class="xl69" align="right">7</td> <td class="xl71" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl71">WIN</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Tonight's games to watch:

WRIGHT STATE -3.5
Wright State opened at -5.5, line has dropped 2.0 points. Currently has 68% of bets on them.

KENT STATE -9
Kent State opened at -10.5, line has dropped 1.5 points. Currently has 76% of bets on them.

 

[Vulture50]

Nice record and a good concept.

 

[-Chase-]

so you're fading sharps and letting your bet ride with all the squares?

yeah, sounds like a winning strategy over time to me...

 

[OnWisconsin]

anything that can go 22-6-1 is worth a look. only thing is, at some point it's going to level off. thanks for posting this information though. following trends seems to be as successful as anything others come up with.

 

[FearTheRaven]

so you're fading sharps and letting your bet ride with all the squares?

yeah, sounds like a winning strategy over time to me...

Recently it has been, cause I've been getting my nuts kicked betting the way I usually do.

 

[Paddywack]

Why wasn't Boise last night a play? Pub was all over them. Edit, I see your rule about line movement now.

 

[OutSmart]

does this system pertain to the NBA, or only college?

 

[letsgohoosiers]

does this system pertain to the NBA, or only college?

Haven't been tracking NBA. This system is only selecting 2.6% of the action, so we would only have around 63 plays in a season.

 

[Paddywack]

No reverse line movement. Boise opened at +1.5 and moved to +1. They had the percentages but the line was moving in their favor and didn't move enough.

Yep, I missed that in the first reading of your post. Interesting system man, thanks for posting it.

 

[apacholikewhoa]

Im not sure I understand (sorry, Im an amatuer here). So any favorite who's line drops more than 1.5 and that have over 60% of the public bets on them...should be a play? Im just a little confused b/c I thought "fade" meant go the opposite way.

and what does Chase mean by "so you're fading sharps and letting your bet ride with all the squares?" Whats a sharp and a square?

thanks in advance for the clarification and knowledge

 

[OnWisconsin]

last night, the public was 8-2 in cbb when backing a team at 60% or higher. nba public was 1-3. since i've been tracking this it was the first time the percentage was well over 50% either way.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Im not sure I understand (sorry, Im an amatuer here). So any favorite who's line drops more than 1.5 and that have over 60% of the public bets on them...should be a play? Im just a little confused b/c I thought "fade" meant go the opposite way.

and what does Chase mean by "so you're fading sharps and letting your bet ride with all the squares?" Whats a sharp and a square?

thanks in advance for the clarification and knowledge

Alright I'll try to explain the philosophy.

There are people who believe sincerely in reverse line movement. This is when there is a smaller percentage on a team that the line is moving towards. This is the "smart money".

For example, in the Wright State-Loyola Chicago game, the line has moved 2 points to Loyola Chicago's side. However, only 34% of the bets are on Loyola Chicago, meaning the "Smart Money" is on Loyola Chicago.

What this is doing, using the aforementioned factors, is fading that. We're taking the other side of the smart money.

People define "squares" as the public, the obvious bets. So whatever side the public is on is a square bet. Squares would be on Wright State.

 

[919]

so you're fading sharps and letting your bet ride with all the squares?

yeah, sounds like a winning strategy over time to me...

apparently i have no idea

 

[GimmeDattt]

Hold on.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

last night, the public was 8-2 in cbb when backing a team at 60% or higher. nba public was 1-3. since i've been tracking this it was the first time the percentage was well over 50% either way.

In games of 51% on one side or the other, the public is 274-265 since I have been tracking (50.8%).

At 60% or higher, they're 207-174 (54.3%)

At 70% or higher, they're 118-104 (53.1%)

At 80% or higher, they're 36-30 (54.5%)

This is for CBB.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Tell me if I am right?

You want us to bet on the team that has 60% of the public on them and gets the line moved thier way?

Therefore betting against all the big money bets and betting with the public?

 

[919]

Tell me if I am right?

You want us to bet on the team that has 60% of the public on them and gets the line moved thier way?

Therefore betting against all the big money bets and betting with the public?

ok, sorry

 

[GimmeDattt]

Well that was his response to Chase.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Tell me if I am right?

You want us to bet on the team that has 60% of the public on them and gets the line moved thier way?

Therefore betting against all the big money bets and betting with the public?

No, I want you to bet on teams with 60%+ of the public on them, where the line is moving 1.5+ points the other way.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Thats not what your 1st post says.