Exbookie wants to help the players week 9

ACE-ACE · Oct 28, 2008

Starting bankroll $75,000

Action plays .............14-22 -$4671.00
Investment...............12-6 + $12,715.00

Total........................26-28 +$8344.00

Bankroll now $83,344.00 UP 8.3 UNITS

As I said before...If it was not for week 1 where I when 0-3 in the Investment plays I would be up over $19k and I would be 12-3!!!

Great point this week is you see my total win and lose at under 50%
YOU MUST MAKE YOUR STAND ON YOUR BEST PLAYS. When I was a book...The ones that beat me was the one that bet 1-2 bets a week and no action...they won all most every year.

The measure of success of a sports handicapper is not his percentage of winning bets...but the relating amount of profit he made over any given period of time:toast:

Public over 65% for the year

Sides 32-30
Totals 34-32

no edge betting with the public or against the public
my point is bet the match-up...fine line being sharp and public!

STATS FOR THE YEAR VS ATS

HOME 58
AWAY 58

DOG 56
FAV 60

OVER 60
UNDER 56

POINTS THAT MATTER 19 GAMES OUT OF 116 16%

THE LINE ........................VS.................MYLINE

TENN-5.................................................-6.5

ARI-3....................................................-6

CLE -2...................................................-1

JAX-7.5.................................................-11

CHI -3.5................................................-8

MIN -4.5........................................HOU-2

TB-8.5..................................................-4

BUF-5.5................................................-6

DEN-3...........................................MIA-9.5

PHI-7..................................................-2.5

ATL-2.................................................-6

NYG-8.................................................-10.5

IND-5............................................NE-9

WAS-2................................................EV

WE HAVE 3 WILL VALUE OF OVER +6

HOU +6.5
MIA +12.5
NE +14

WHICH ONE DO YOU LIKE BETTER???
DO YOUR HOMEWORK

ACE

WHITE_CHOCOLATE · Oct 28, 2008

So with the Houston, New England and Miami games, are you saying you know something the oddsmakers don't know or that the oddsmaker's know something you don't know???:wink:

ACE-ACE · Oct 28, 2008

WHITE_CHOCOLATE said:
So with the Houston, New England and Miami games, are you saying you know something the oddsmakers don't know or that the oddsmaker's know something you don't know???:wink:

been doing "myline" for 14 years...80% of the time the lines are within +6 points...my 11-3 record in years is because the other 20% is off....not saying the lines should be that of hou...ne and Mia...just saying there more value in betting that side...when I place My bets...it will not be the other side of those games...that's a fact...I have never gone againt myline when the edge is over +6

best to you
Ace

gmoney72 · Oct 28, 2008

WHICH ONE DO YOU LIKE BETTER???

I would probably say NE

WormyPix · Oct 28, 2008

I think MIA is a great play. They could probably run the wildcat every play and score a TD or FG every possession. And with Champ Bailey out, maybe Ginn can continue to expand on last wk's performance. I worry about "mile high" tho, do you think the young MIA players can handle that in the 4th Q? I think Sparano goes extra tuff on them in practice.

I like HOU as well. MIN almost has no business giving any pts to anyone. Maybe KC & OAK. Should get on that one now, I believe the line should come down.

NE I must disagree a little. This has always been a huge gm for both teams, so I expect a battle with the winner coming out as time expires. Is IND that much worse than SD? Look what SD did to NE in primetime. And I still think NE's "D" is suspect, and Peyton will have an easier time scoring against them than last yr's big matchup. The only thing I question is IND's motivation now. With the division all but gone, are they content with taking the wild card route to the super bowl? I'd say yes for Peyton, but what about the others? If Bob Sanders returns, I'll probably be on IND.

Good stuff thus far Ace, keep it up!

indiana · Oct 28, 2008

ace/ace...........

Great week with you investment plays..thank you for all you do

indy

jacobtree · Oct 28, 2008

I like the Mia line the most, Mia will be a play of mine for sure this week!

Keep up the great work!

QuittingWork · Oct 28, 2008

There is a lot of parity in the nfl this year--there is no better example than denver(ultimate wild card team). After a bye to think about that beatdown on MNF, I couldn't play miami. It'll be interesting to see where the money goes. You would think miami would get some respect. I just feel like miami might fade late at that altitude after two physical games.

GL AA.

Thanks for your info.

Jetplane · Oct 28, 2008

I agree on all 3

QuittingWork · Oct 28, 2008

AA, was that chi line supposed to be -13.5, not -3.5, and your line -8. Or were they both misprints?

Thanks.

THE GREEK 05 · Oct 28, 2008

hey didnt you use to be my book?? lol all look good to me

rawmaterial · Oct 28, 2008

Ace,

Thanks for all your info and NICE BANG WITH the MNF game thanks for making me a winner!!

bodogscarlet · Oct 28, 2008

ace, are you gonna be posting your NBA picks?

rfb · Oct 28, 2008

myline with no preseason added in.........

10-4 last week ...if you played every game 30-23 for the season 56.6%

hous 4
jack 9.5
tbay 2.5
balt 1.5
buff 3.5
ari 6
chi 8.5
mia 12.5
atl 6
nyg 10.5
phil 7
tenn 5
ne 7
wash 5

picks same 3 games plus one more with KC

:toast:

SamyFarhaJr · Oct 28, 2008

Over/Under with +6 value:

Dallas +14.92 (take Over 41 -- predicted 55.92)
Cincinnati +10.54 (take Under 40 -- predicted 29.46)
Arizona +7.48 (take Under 49 -- predicted 41.52)
Pittsburgh +7.12 (take Over 37 -- predicted 44.12)
Chicago +6.08 (take Under 43 -- predicted 36.92)

TheJackal · Oct 28, 2008

ACE-ACE said:
WE HAVE 3 WILL VALUE OF OVER +6

HOU +6.5
MIA +12.5
NE +14

WHICH ONE DO YOU LIKE BETTER???
DO YOUR HOMEWORK

ACE

MIA and here is why.

Your system has picked MIA three times this year and has won all 3 times. (weeks 3, 5, 6).
Your system has never gone against MIA this year.
Your system has never gone for or against the Broncos this year.
Three reasons to pick MIA.
Also, Broncos are 2-5 ATS this year. Dolphins are 4-3 ATS.

Your system has picked for NE once and lost. (week 6 against chargers)
Your system has picked against NE once and won. (week 3 against Dolphins)
Your system has picked against the colts 3 times and has lost twice.
4 reasons to NOT pick NE and only one vote against the colts.
Colts are 3-4 against the spread but so are the pats

Your system has picked for HOU once and lost. (week 5 against colts)
Your system has picked against HOU once and won. (week 6 against Dolphins)
Your system has never gone for or against the Vikings this year.
2 reasons to NOT pick HOU.
Vikes are 2-5 ATS but so is Houston.

NOTE: I am not saying that these were your plays for those weeks, only that your system (without preseason data) highlighted these as games with value of +6 or greater.

Feedback welcome...

ACE-ACE · Oct 28, 2008

QuittingWork said:
There is a lot of parity in the nfl this year--there is no better example than denver(ultimate wild card team). After a bye to think about that beatdown on MNF, I couldn't play miami. It'll be interesting to see where the money goes. You would think miami would get some respect. I just feel like miami might fade late at that altitude after two physical games.

GL AA.

Thanks for your info.

hou is 51% of the public
Mia is only 22%
NE is 47%

still early but that what the public % are on those 3 games

ACE-ACE · Oct 28, 2008

TheJackal said:
MIA and here is why.

Your system has picked MIA three times this year and has won all 3 times. (weeks 3, 5, 6).
Your system has never gone against MIA this year.
Your system has never gone for or against the Broncos this year.
Three reasons to pick MIA.
Also, Broncos are 2-5 ATS this year. Dolphins are 4-3 ATS.

Your system has picked for NE once and lost. (week 6 against chargers)
Your system has picked against NE once and won. (week 3 against Dolphins)
Your system has picked against the colts 3 times and has lost twice.
4 reasons to NOT pick NE and only one vote against the colts.
Colts are 3-4 against the spread but so are the pats

Your system has picked for HOU once and lost. (week 5 against colts)
Your system has picked against HOU once and won. (week 6 against Dolphins)
Your system has never gone for or against the Vikings this year.
2 reasons to NOT pick HOU.
Vikes are 2-5 ATS but so is Houston.

NOTE: I am not saying that these were your plays for those weeks, only that your system (without preseason data) highlighted these as games with value of +6 or greater.

Feedback welcome...

now there a man that loves stats...can you tell me the record of all bets over +6 edge??....would love to see that:toast:AA

TheJackal · Oct 28, 2008

Samy Farha Jr said:
Over/Under with +6 value:

Dallas +14.92 (take Over 41 -- predicted 55.92)
Cincinnati +10.54 (take Under 40 -- predicted 29.46)
Arizona +7.48 (take Under 49 -- predicted 41.52)
Pittsburgh +7.12 (take Over 37 -- predicted 44.12)
Chicago +6.08 (take Under 43 -- predicted 36.92)

Dallas is 3-2 this year when predicted as an Over using this system. (0-1 with Johnson). They have never been picked in an under.
NYG are 1-0 as an over and 0-1 as an under (meaning went over both times).

Bengals have never been picked as an over. They are 3-1 with this system as an under.
Jaguars have never been picked as an over. They are 2-2 as an under.

Arizona has never been picked as part of an under. Arizona is 1-0 as an over.
The Rams have never been picked as an over. They are 0-3 as an under.

Steelers have never been picked as an over. They are 1-1 as an under.
Washington is 1-0 as an over. They have never been picked as an under.

Bears are 0-0-1(push) as an over. They have never been picked as an under.
Lions have never been picked as an over. They are 1-0 as an under.

Cinci/Jags is probably the best play.
I would probably stay away from DAL/NYG also with Romo still out.
Stay away from Ariz/Rams given the trend.
Pitt/Was and Bears/Lions look OK on the surface but I would probably stay away given this system is 6-8-2 this year on plays with value between 6 and 8.

puretna168 · Oct 28, 2008

personally with the NE play, i might stay away... you never know which Colts team will show up. I love the Mia Play, i'll take them as dogs on the road to Denver...