Exbookie Wants To Help The Players Week 5

[ACE-ACE]

Starting bankroll $75,000

Action plays .............12-11 + $285.00
Investment...............5-4 + $1775.00

Total........................17-15 +$2060.00

Bankroll now $77,060.00 UP 2 UNITS

Last week was my turn around week been trying not to over think my picks...when the line comes out on my service on sunday I all ready know what my line is..than I look and mark the games I like. one of the thing I do is fig the over and under by total yards avg of each team minus 325 div by 7.5 here what I got this week.

BAL.........36
CAR........35
SD..........47
PHI..........43.6
HOU.........40.6
NYG.........55
SF...........30.5
GB...........44.5
DET.........35.6
DEN .........56.2
ARI...........46.7
DAL..........43.3
JAX..........27.2
N.O. .........53.8

This is a great tool...now look at the real line....value comes with the diff/////......I never go against this

lets take sf vs NE...the line is 41.5....my line is 30.5...a value of +11

not saying this will be a play....because.....you have to do all the other capping to see if it real value....but...I would not play the over base on this only the under or I walk and go on to the next game.


public

% over 65% when
SIDES 4-3
TOTALS 5-3

TOTAL FOR THE YEAR

SIDES 19-15
TOTALS 18-11

BOTH YOU COULD WIN MONEY!


STATS

HOME 31
AWAY 29

DOGS 27
FAV 33

OVERS 35
UNDERS 25

EVERY LAST YEAR AND THIS YEAR IF YOU BET TOTALS AND GO WITH THE PUBLIC YOU WOULD HAVE MADE GOOD MONEY!


POINTS THAT MATTER

9 GAMES OUT OF 60....... 15%


now go and do your homework ...lots of thing to look at.:toast:AA

 

[indiana]

ace/ace........

great job last week.. thank you again for the added efforts

indy

 

[lordstewiethegreat]

Great job Ace, unfortunately I didnt go with any of your bets this week hno:


Lesson LEARNED

 

[jasmine]

Hello Ace,where are you getting your NFL stats? this is what I got Pats = 271.3 + Sanfran = 334.5 = 605.8 - 325 = 280.8 / 7.5 = 37.4 now that's less than the 10 value that you have at the total line of 41.5 ( + 4.1) is this correct or am I doing something wrong here or not getting the right NFL statistics ? :think2: Thanks

 

[memphis]

very good info and great capping!

 

[bmore]

your stat about points don't matter makes abosolutely no sense. so if the team that wins covers 85% of the time how does that help anyone??? i am willing to bet that most can only pick 65% (at best) winners in all games anyway. so with the games where they win and don't cover 15% you would have to pick better then 75% winners for this to have any value for you. if you pick 65% of all games right SU you would still be a loser ATS and you would need to pick 70% winners just to break even. where is the edge in just picking winners then if you have to pick over 75% of them right, including all the closely lined games?? there is no angle or advantage in just picking the winner...just trying to help some who are thinking that its as easy as just picking the winners (which is hard alot in itself espcially in these games where the line is 3 or less). hell look at my survior pool for example. we started with 90 guys and after 4 weeks where you only have to pick 1 winner were down to 23...and that is picking your strongest single game

 

[bmore]

one last thing on that cause i couldnt edit it. in a 16 game schedule you would have to average 12 right picks SU per week for 16 weeks (75% which would net almost 60% ATS winners) to make a small profit. you would have to average 11 right SU picks per week JUST TO BREAK EVEN (that would net you 54% ATS winners assuming 15% SU winners don't cover the spread which is about the average every year) i am willing to bet 95% (probably more) can't pick 11 out of 16 winners on average for 16 weeks to break even let alone 12

 

[aiverson]

your stat about points don't matter makes abosolutely no sense. so if the team that wins covers 85% of the time how does that help anyone??? i am willing to bet that most can only pick 65% (at best) winners in all games anyway. so with the games where they win and don't cover 15% you would have to pick better then 75% winners for this to have any value for you. if you pick 65% of all games right SU you would still be a loser ATS and you would need to pick 70% winners just to break even. where is the edge in just picking winners then if you have to pick over 75% of them right, including all the closely lined games?? there is no angle or advantage in just picking the winner...just trying to help some who are thinking that its as easy as just picking the winners (which is hard alot in itself espcially in these games where the line is 3 or less). hell look at my survior pool for example. we started with 90 guys and after 4 weeks where you only have to pick 1 winner were down to 23...and that is picking your strongest single game

I've said this before to Ace and have not heard his reply. This is by no means bashing Ace, the point of this forum is to help everyone make money, and I'm sure Ace has helped his fare share.

That said, my thought on "points don't matter":

Winning vs. losing in this sport is a fine line. You pick 50% of the games right, you lose. You pick 55% right, you win. That's only 5% difference between a winner and a loser.

If points matter in 15% of the games, your damn sure I'll be worrying about the points.

If points mattered in only 1-2% of games, maybe I won't worry. But 15% is HUGE when the margin between winning vs. losing is only a couple percentage points.

And again, this assumes that you are betting on every single game and therefore would only be affected by the points in 15% of them.

If you have 16 games in week 3, then Ace is saying the points matter in 2.4 of those games. But if you only play 3 games a week, you could be affected by the points in 100% of the games you are playing.

I don't agree w/ this advice at all, and I don't want young gamblers to be disillusioned by thinking all they have to do is pick a side. That's what the books would want you to think. "Hey kid, it's easy, just pick a side." Trust me, it's not easy, and 15% is HUGE.

Whether you play every game on the board or a select few a week, the points matter and you'd be foolish to be a game ignoring them. That's just my opinion, and I want to make sure those who haven't been at this very long don't get derailed.

Great week last week Ace and good luck this week.

 

[bmore]

it really comes down to simple math. you need to pick 75% SU winners (in a 16 game week that is 12) to make money and i guarantee there is no one out there that can average 75% winners every week for 16 weeks.

GL this week Ace not trying to bash here at all as you are a valued contributer and you have helped way more people then i have make money...hopefully this helped both you and your followers

 

[rfb]

my line with no pre-season included...

note: just a little uncomfortable because houston has not played at home yet

hous 4
balt E
Mia 4
Car 1
Wash E
Chi 4.5
NYG 5.5
TB E
SF 1
Buff 6
Jax E
Minn E

:think2:

games to look at

houston
miami
KC
Wash (getting close)
Buff

 

[CoolBreeze22]

it really comes down to simple math. you need to pick 75% SU winners (in a 16 game week that is 12) to make money and i guarantee there is no one out there that can average 75% winners every week for 16 weeks.

GL this week Ace not trying to bash here at all as you are a valued contributer and you have helped way more people then i have make money...hopefully this helped both you and your followers

This is so wrong it's laughable.....there's going to be times when you pick the dog to win straight up that they cover the spread for you as well. That is the point Ace-Ace is trying to make, not to look to closely at the line and play dogs that you think have a chance of winning the game outright. If they lose the game and cover the number that's just gravy.

 

[RiNo808]

Starting bankroll $75,000

Action plays .............12-11 + $285.00
Investment...............5-4 + $1775.00

Total........................17-15 +$2060.00

Bankroll now $77,060.00 UP 2 UNITS

Last week was my turn around week been trying not to over think my picks...when the line comes out on my service on sunday I all ready know what my line is..than I look and mark the games I like. one of the thing I do is fig the over and under by total yards avg of each team minus 325 div by 7.5 here what I got this week.

BAL.........36
CAR........35
SD..........47
PHI..........43.6
HOU.........40.6
NYG.........55
SF...........30.5
GB...........44.5
DET.........35.6
DEN .........56.2
ARI...........46.7
DAL..........43.3
JAX..........27.2
N.O. .........53.8

This is a great tool...now look at the real line....value comes with the diff/////......I never go against this

lets take sf vs NE...the line is 41.5....my line is 30.5...a value of +11

not saying this will be a play....because.....you have to do all the other capping to see if it real value....but...I would not play the over base on this only the under or I walk and go on to the next game.


public

% over 65% when
SIDES 4-3
TOTALS 5-3

TOTAL FOR THE YEAR

SIDES 19-15
TOTALS 18-11

BOTH YOU COULD WIN MONEY!


STATS

HOME 31
AWAY 29

DOGS 27
FAV 33

OVERS 35
UNDERS 25

EVERY LAST YEAR AND THIS YEAR IF YOU BET TOTALS AND GO WITH THE PUBLIC YOU WOULD HAVE MADE GOOD MONEY!


POINTS THAT MATTER

9 GAMES OUT OF 60....... 15%


now go and do your homework ...lots of thing to look at.:toast:AA

Awesome ACE-ACE, thanks for the hard work...i do have a question on your o/u fomula...i see that the formula is avg yards of both teams -325/7.5. as the season goes on and yardage goes up wouldnt the total also go up, which giving a false total...just trying to understand your formula...thanks in advanced...

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hello Ace,where are you getting your NFL stats? this is what I got Pats = 271.3 + Sanfran = 334.5 = 605.8 - 325 = 280.8 / 7.5 = 37.4 now that's less than the 10 value that you have at the total line of 41.5 ( + 4.1) is this correct or am I doing something wrong here or not getting the right NFL statistics ? :think2: Thanks

you are right I had my number off.

 

[ACE-ACE]

your stat about points don't matter makes abosolutely no sense. so if the team that wins covers 85% of the time how does that help anyone??? i am willing to bet that most can only pick 65% (at best) winners in all games anyway. so with the games where they win and don't cover 15% you would have to pick better then 75% winners for this to have any value for you. if you pick 65% of all games right SU you would still be a loser ATS and you would need to pick 70% winners just to break even. where is the edge in just picking winners then if you have to pick over 75% of them right, including all the closely lined games?? there is no angle or advantage in just picking the winner...just trying to help some who are thinking that its as easy as just picking the winners (which is hard alot in itself espcially in these games where the line is 3 or less). hell look at my survior pool for example. we started with 90 guys and after 4 weeks where you only have to pick 1 winner were down to 23...and that is picking your strongest single game

the only point is the points should not matter when you cap...its all about how you look at it....
the game this week CAR -9 over KC....if you like CAR they will cover...and if you like KC you should not hope for them to lose and cover because only 15% of the time points matter....point is bet a team that you want to win outright and dont look at the points:toast:AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

I've said this before to Ace and have not heard his reply. This is by no means bashing Ace, the point of this forum is to help everyone make money, and I'm sure Ace has helped his fare share.

That said, my thought on "points don't matter":

Winning vs. losing in this sport is a fine line. You pick 50% of the games right, you lose. You pick 55% right, you win. That's only 5% difference between a winner and a loser.

If points matter in 15% of the games, your damn sure I'll be worrying about the points.

If points mattered in only 1-2% of games, maybe I won't worry. But 15% is HUGE when the margin between winning vs. losing is only a couple percentage points.

And again, this assumes that you are betting on every single game and therefore would only be affected by the points in 15% of them.

If you have 16 games in week 3, then Ace is saying the points matter in 2.4 of those games. But if you only play 3 games a week, you could be affected by the points in 100% of the games you are playing.

I don't agree w/ this advice at all, and I don't want young gamblers to be disillusioned by thinking all they have to do is pick a side. That's what the books would want you to think. "Hey kid, it's easy, just pick a side." Trust me, it's not easy, and 15% is HUGE.

Whether you play every game on the board or a select few a week, the points matter and you'd be foolish to be a game ignoring them. That's just my opinion, and I want to make sure those who haven't been at this very long don't get derailed.

Great week last week Ace and good luck this week.

posted #14 tells how I feel...its just a stat......but I do see your point.

let win again :toast:AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

note: just a little uncomfortable because houston has not played at home yet
WITH PRE
hous 4.........6
balt E....EV
Mia 4.........4.5
Car 1.........4.5
Wash E.......PHI -1
Chi 4.5.........DET-1
NYG 5.5.........6
TB E..............EV
SF 1..............2
Buff 6..............7.5
Jax E...............2.5
Minn E.........N.O. 2

WE ARE CLOSE:toast:AA

 

[ACE-ACE]

Awesome ACE-ACE, thanks for the hard work...i do have a question on your o/u fomula...i see that the formula is avg yards of both teams -325/7.5. as the season goes on and yardage goes up wouldnt the total also go up, which giving a false total...just trying to understand your formula...thanks in advanced...

ITS A AVG...SO IT DOES NOT GO UP UNLESS A TEAM GET MORE YARDS

HERE A LINK THAT I USE

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2008/regular?sort_col_1=4

 

[Kurtopia]

thanks ace, how successful is this system?

 

[CLCfball11]

Ace-Ace, I like the looks of this O/U system, but I have a question about it...why isnt any stock put into how many yards each team GIVES UP on average as well? wouldnt that also affect the line?

 

[ACE-ACE]

LAST TWO DAYS

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</TD></TR></TFOOT><TBODY><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__0 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 6:55 P</TD><TD>(425) 10/5 Play on OU Under Arizona Cardinals (45.5u-110)</TD><TD>Grande (1-1,-0.10)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__1 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>9/30 6:33 P</TD><TD>(414) 10/5 Play on Philadelphia Eagles -5</TD><TD>Bet Jamaica (3-2,+0.6)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__2 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 5:38 P</TD><TD>(423) 10/5 Play on San Francisco 49ers (3.5+100)</TD><TD>CRIS (16-17,-2.62)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__3 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 5:21 P</TD><TD>(407) 10/5 Play on OU Under Baltimore Ravens (35u-105)</TD><TD>ThePig (1-0,+0.90)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__4 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 2:30 P</TD><TD>(409) 10/5 Play on Miami Dolphins (7-115)</TD><TD>5Dimes (11-8,+1.47)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__5><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 1:39 P</TD><TD>(423) 10/5 Play on San Francisco 49ers (3.5-110)</TD><TD>ThePig (13-14,-2.30)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__6 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 12:54 P</TD><TD>(415) 10/5 Play on Detroit Lions (4-110)</TD><TD>Bet Jamaica (6-9,-3.67)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__7 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/30 2:46 A</TD><TD>(415) 10/5 Play on Detroit Lions (4-110)</TD><TD>5Dimes (11-8,+1.47)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__8 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>9/29 10:10 P</TD><TD>(415) 10/5 Play on Chicago Bears -3</TD><TD>Bodog (3-0,+2.7)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__9><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/29 8:23 P</TD><TD>(419) 10/5 Play on Seattle Seahawks (7.5-110)</TD><TD>WSEX (2-3,-1.20)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__10 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>9/29 1:54 P</TD><TD>(220) 9/29 Play on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5</TD><TD>CRIS (1-4,-4)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__11 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>9/29 1:32 P</TD><TD>(425) 10/5 Play on Buffalo Bills 2</TD><TD>Grande (7-2,+4.4)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__12 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>9/29 1:26 P</TD><TD>(220) 9/29 Play on Pittsburgh Steelers -5</TD><TD>Skybook (4-2,+1.5)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__13><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/29 1:14 P</TD><TD>(415) 10/5 Play on Detroit Lions (3+109)</TD><TD>ThePig (13-14,-2.30)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__14 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>9/29 12:23 A</TD><TD>(419) 10/5 Play on Seattle Seahawks (7.5-115)</TD><TD>Olympic (3-6,-3.15)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>