Exbookie Wants To Help The Players Week 4

[ACE-ACE]

RECORD
NFL OVER $2000 BETS........5-3 +$3200.00
CFF OVER $2000 BETS........3-0 +$8500.00
........................................8-3 + $11,700.00

NFL & CFF UNDER $1100 BETS(FOR ACTION ONLY)....7-11 -$3790.00

TOTAL..................................+$7,910.00
STARTING BANKROLL.....50,000.....NOW $57,910.00


THIS WEEK IS THE START OF "MY LINE"

The truth in examining games is the detail.....anyone who expects to be successful had better learn to read between the lines to determine how or why teams are winning or losing....

one capper may say that turnover are the most important stat. others home field......passing.....running....ect...

BUT ONE FACTOR USUALLY DONT TELL THE STORY....

anybetter who wants to take advantage of edges will have to learn to read between the lines

other factors can infuence a team's performance....injuries, weather and coaching ......emotion too....

so remember....sometimes stats can lie. stats are a good starting point,but successful betters DIG DEEP.....

Expanding your thinking helps you get better in life......

and at the betting window.......

I have made a comp program that find the line of a game.....most the games are right on.......(1-2 point + or -)

ITS base on:

turnovers,penalties,total time,bookies line( how many over or under)

a bit on how it works:

pitt beat cin by 11 points......
the line was pit -4
that would be +7 for pitt and -7 for cinn....I do this eash week

the program kick in with good number after week 4.....

I find it works good between week 4-10.....

after that the line are .....TIGHT....

.............THE LINE...............................................MY LINE

CINN..........9 1/2..................................................-10 1/2

JAC............4...........................................................-2

KC.............2 1/2.....................................................EV

NE.............5...........................................................EV

BUF...........EV.........................................................-5

NYG...........3...........................................................-1

TB.............7............................................................-7

IND ..........-6 1/2.....................................................-1 1/2

WAS.........- 2 1/2....................................................-1

BALT..........OFF....WITH ADJUSTMENT TO QB..............-6

ATL.............- 5 1/2.................................................-6 1/2

OAK............-3................................................DAL..-4

ARIZ............-3.......................................................-4

CAR............-7 1/2..................................................-2 1/2

THE ONE'S WITH THE MOST VALUE
NE +5
BUF +5
DAL +7
GB +5(THAT MEANS VALUE)

I POSTED IT NOW SO YOU CAN TRY TO READ BETWEEN THE LINES
I WILL POST MY PICKS LATER....THUR OR FIR/DAY

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

 

[WillisMcGahee]

Thanks Ace! Great job (and explanations as usual).

One question though - if NE is -5 and your line has the game as a Pick, isn't SD the value play here at +5 (if I'm reading your line right)?

Thanks,
Willis

 

[FadeMe]

Here Would be My Guess for Ace Ace



ACE ACE BETS ARE PROBABLY

BUFF PK EM..........................................$2,200.00
DALLAS + 3 1/2......................................$3,000.00

SD +6......................................$2,200.00

GB +8......................................$2,500.00

JUST THOUGHT I WOULD TAKE A STAB AT FOR FUN.
THANKS FOR THE WINNER LAST NIGHT.

FM

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks Ace! Great job (and explanations as usual).

One question though - if NE is -5 and your line has the game as a Pick, isn't SD the value play here at +5 (if I'm reading your line right)?

Thanks,
Willis

YOUR RIGHT THE VALUE IS FOR SD.....TYPO....THANKS

 

[Schouest]

Buffalo has lost their HEART on Defense in Spikes and this is the first "HOME" game for the Saints as San Antonio has really embraced em.


They will come out here ready to play..

BE CAREFUL there with Buffalo...

You have helped me tremendously in the past, so I figured I'd try and keep you off Buffalo here as Losman will get PLANTED by the NO D as they will not be able to run on the Saints D line....

You need a QB that can go downfield to really burn the Saints...LOSEMAN can't do it !!

 

[BernieVegas]

ACE ACE

Are you saying that your numbers have New England/San Diego game a Pick'em in New England??? You have the San Diego Chargers a Pick'em vs the world champions IN NEW ENGLAND??? You have New England a Pick'em AT HOME vs the San Diego Chargers???.....Sorry for me being a little confused here

Yours in Winners
Bernie

 

[CruiseMayhem]

Pats are banged up...LT is unstoppable. Like the value in this spot.

 

[Hitman26]

15,500 -110

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

Wow...tight lines this week. Looking forward to your picks, ACE.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

15,500 -110

OVER for $10,000 Monopoly money.

 

[WannaCap]

how would i look at ur lines to see who u would pick as ur office picks like u listewd them last week with cin 14 and pit 1.
thanks in advance

 

[winbet]

ACE ACE

Are you saying that your numbers have New England/San Diego game a Pick'em in New England??? You have the San Diego Chargers a Pick'em vs the world champions IN NEW ENGLAND??? You have New England a Pick'em AT HOME vs the San Diego Chargers???.....Sorry for me being a little confused here

Yours in Winners
Bernie

Bernie,
Most cappers have tools which help them address a game, the reason I am posting is because my tools also bring this game out at PK. As the tools I use work specifically on events to date without bias, all this does is highlight to me that there is value in the line from a methodical angle. Whether San Diego can put this advantage across in reality is another question, if New England score first, SD might fall to pieces pyschologically, who knows! all it tells me is stay away from New England and consider San Diego, I am sure Ace works on the same lines.

 

[MaxPower+]

Ace-Ace,

It looks like you have IND as +5 also

 

[Trout90]

BernieVegas

:headbeat: Bernie...don't be a moron and question ACE's NE vs. SD line when he has given us winner after winner after winner.

PS. ACE. thanks for the info on Toledo last night
:money8:

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace-Ace,

It looks like you have IND as +5 also

NO.....IF THE REAL LINE IS -6 1/2
AND MY LINE IS iND.......-1 1/2 (THAT MEAN IND WINS BY 1 1/2 POINTS THAT WOULD FAV TENN GETTING 6 1/2.....)

 

[bobomax]

awake at this hour ace?

look forward to your selections.

 

[ACE-ACE]

how would i look at ur lines to see who u would pick as ur office picks like u listewd them last week with cin 14 and pit 1.
thanks in advance

i WILL SHOW YOU


CINN..........9 1/2................................................. .-10 1/2.....CINN

JAC............4.................................. .........................-2.........DEN

KC.............2 1/2................................................. ....EV.........KC

NE.............5.................................. .........................EV..........SD

BUF...........EV.................................. .......................-5...........BUF

NYG...........3................................... ........................-1..........STL

TB.............7.................................. ..........................-7....NO ONE

IND ..........-6 1/2................................................. ....-1 1/2..TENN

WAS.........- 2 1/2................................................. ...-1.SEA..BUT IN THE POOL I WOULD PICK WASH

BALT..........OFF....WITH ADJUSTMENT TO QB..............-6............SAL

ATL.............- 5 1/2................................................. -6 1/2......ATL

OAK............-3................................................D AL..-4.......DAL

ARIZ............-3................................................. ......-4...........ARIZ

CAR............-7 1/2................................................. .-2 1/2......GB


THOSE TEAM WOULD BE A BETTER VALUE IN A POOL

 

[ACE-ACE]

awake at this hour ace?

look forward to your selections.

GOING TO WORK IN A HOUR....ALWAY CHECK IN FOR A FEW MINS IN THE A.M.
AS i'M HAVING MY COFFEE:drink:

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE ACE

Are you saying that your numbers have New England/San Diego game a Pick'em in New England??? You have the San Diego Chargers a Pick'em vs the world champions IN NEW ENGLAND??? You have New England a Pick'em AT HOME vs the San Diego Chargers???.....Sorry for me being a little confused here

Yours in Winners
Bernie

ITS HOW I SEE IT.....A TOSS UP GAME.SO IF YOU TAKE SD ITS A VALUE OF +5 POINTS

 

[charliepeete]

GOING TO WORK IN A HOUR....ALWAY CHECK IN FOR A FEW MINS IN THE A.M.
AS i'M HAVING MY COFFEE:drink:

nothing wrong with a little coffe....with that i am on the way to tim hortons to get mine.... thnaks hot and black