from my friend Nick
9/17/2008
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
NFL TEASERS AGAIN A BIG STORY
I keep promising not to devote too much space to this. But, it’s become such a big story in Las Vegas and Reno sportsbooks that I have to keep you posted.
Sharps betting NFL teasers are making a killing!
In past years, what’s called “basic strategy” for NFL two-team teasers has been particularly dangerous later in the season once the lines have had time to settle into place. In “basic strategy,” you tease any games that cross both the 3 and the 7 with those six-point moves. It makes sense that moving a line six points is more valuable if the lines are accurate.
Early season lines can be soft because it’s hard to know for sure where everyone stands because of offseason personnel and coaching changes. The oddsmaker in me spends a lot of time saying “We’ll know more after this week” during September. After awhile, you pretty much know where all the teams stand. Teasers have more intrinsic value after the market knows where the teams stand.
This year though, the basic strategy has been working out of the gate. Almost every game that could have been used logically in a two-team six-point teaser in Week Two of the regular season got there.
Here’s a list:
*Tennessee was at +2.5 or +1.5 at Cincinnati for part of the week. They would be a logical choice to tease up to +7.5 or +8.5. The sharps liked Tennessee to win the game outright…and the line eventually dropped out of the basic strategy window. Tennessee closed a 1-point favorite. They would win the game 24-7.
*Minnesota was +2 much of the week at home against Indianapolis. This was a very popular teaser choice (moving the Vikings up to +8) because the Colts looked so sluggish the week before vs. Chicago. The Vikings as a team side took in a lot of money too, and the line closed at pick-em. Minnesota blew a 15-0 lead on the way to an 18-15 loss. That was enough to cover teasers though.
*Washington opened at +2 at home against New Orleans. That line came down fairly soon to pick-em. If you teased the Redskins up to +8 when you could, they covered that easily in a 29-24 victory.
*New York was an 8.5 point favorite over St. Louis. The Giants were teased down to -2.5 by many people (particularly the square public). That was a laugher when New York won 41-13. You can tell that a lot of teasers are winning to this point! That’s all of the early games on the list. People teasing by starting times had built up a nice bankroll for the late games.
*Tampa Bay was at -8 or -7.5 early in the week before it was announced that Jeff Garcia would miss the game. People who bet teasers early weren’t bothered too much that it was Brian Griese instead. The game line dropped to -7. Teasers were fine when the Bucs won 24-9
*Seattle was the only blemish on the day. In the process of dropping from -9 to -7, they sat in the basic strategy window for awhile at 7.5 to 8.5. The Seahawks ended up losing the game outright, which was a saving grace for sportsbooks rooting against teaser action. The public had Seattle in a lot of teasers too. They figured there was no way this team could lose to San Francisco.
*New England was a popular teaser play when they were getting points from the New York Jets. A lot of late money came in on the Pats, so they were ultimately a 1-point favorite (matching Tennessee/Cincinnati in that regard). The Patriots won 19-10 you’ll recall.
*Denver was a popular teaser play earlier in the week too. They were getting +1.5 or so at times before eventually getting bet to be a favorite with late money as well. You can tell the sports books got hit hard Sunday. Teasers were winning, and the late money was winning! Denver won outright 39-38. The books were desperately hoping San Diego would hold on to that 38-31 fourth quarter lead.
Okay, those are the late afternoon games. One teaser nominee didn’t get there. That’s a big deal because all teasers with Seattle lose. But, on a day where so many combinations won, it was small consolation.
And, it was about to get worse.
*Pittsburgh was a popular teaser team with the public Sunday night even though they weren’t in the right window for basic strategy. Squares love taking six-point favorites down to pick-em figuring they’ll win the game. I’ll probably write at least two articles later in the season warning you against that. This time it worked. Any teaser with Pittsburgh and anyone but Seattle cashed its ticket.
*Dallas was a popular teaser team with the public Monday Night even though they weren’t in the right window. Same price range as Pittsburgh. Give the squares a home team that only has to win straight up and they’ll bet it. Any teasers with Dallas and anyone but Seattle also won.
Magnifying the problem was that “middle” approach I talked about last week. Remember some sharps put Minnesota +8.5 in teasers, but then bought back some of Green Bay at -2 or -1.5 on game do to shoot at that big window that would be a sweep. Green Bay won by 5, and all bets won. It happened again in BOTH the Pittsburgh and Dallas games! Both won by four points. Anyone trying to shoot a middle won everything.
Thinking like a sharp, and betting like a sharp, means making the most of basic strategy teasers in the NFL. Don’t try them in the colleges. That sport is too erratic, so you’re not getting the same value when you move a game six points. Don’t just bet the teams you like in teasers figuring the extra six points are insurance. It’s not about that. It’s about putting both the 3 and 7 in your favor and letting results take care of themselves. Oddsmakers are onto this, and are trying to figure out a defense. You saw many lines move all the way through the windows this past week to discourage teaser play. The hope from sportsbooks that early season volatility would help them turned out to be wrong this year. Something that usually gets stronger later in the season actually started out strong in 2008. I know all of you have different situations in terms of your access to teasers and the right numbers. Do what you can to put this sharp strategy to work for you as best as possible.