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I disagree with that approach
Often the mind of a bettor cannot see a lesser team winning
Looking at situations where team tend to overperform or underperform especially getting points is huge imo
At least in the NFL and NBA
College has a bigger disparity in taslent but other factors such as home advantage are even bigger
But I guess if people win whatever way they do it is great
You bust through mental blocks and your roll will bust through. They ridicule the fck outta me for my take on the chiefs . Idgaf my wallet thanks me
 

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I disagree with that approach
Often the mind of a bettor cannot see a lesser team winning
Looking at situations where team tend to overperform or underperform especially getting points is huge imo
At least in the NFL and NBA
College has a bigger disparity in taslent but other factors such as home advantage are even bigger
But I guess if people win whatever way they do it is great
Over 15 year I have show that the teams that are fav lose as many game as they win…..so same goes with the Dogs. They win outright over 15 years 50% of the time……..I looked FAV win 51.2% more……..if this Statement is true……..bet the team that going to win. I base it on odds of less than -9. Like DALL this week is -17…….yes they will win 95%. But I will not bet a big number just one of my rules
 

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Might be 35 years ago was Teddy Covers we had the same discussion.
 

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I still never buy a hook but play ats almost always. Give me a point to a point and a half in the nfl and I can win. These guys that claim value and can find a td worth haven't learned yet
 

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See there. I see buying the hook and more all the time in here. Who ya gonna listen to? Lang or Ace Ace. Giving away money adds up.
It’s adds up …Im a dime Player. So by a hook cost for $1000. Another 10%. If you do that 20 time and it does not matter. Win 50%. You would be down another $1000 or $2000. ???IS how many time did you buy the hook that it help your play. Only you can answer that . but if I see a play that I like I’m thinking alway that team will win more than a TD more…….so who care about a 1/2 point……just my thinking. And if you tell me by buying that 1/2 point that you won 5-10 from that……you are a luck man
 

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Dime is a nice round number. For example purposes. Intimidating as getting 3 as opposed to 3.5. But wager amount doesn't matter it's relative to your expected growth or percentage of bank roll.
 

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Just curious since the view point is bet the team that is gonna win do you play favorites on the spread but dogs on the ML?
If that is the view isn't that the way you should bet?
 

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I know players that do that bet the money line on dogs within 2-4 points….. out of 5 picks a week that would be with playoff 100 picks in a season NFL. I do 4-5 each year. My 411 system where most my plays come from 90% are the fav. From -1 to -4.5
 

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Only if I get +ev ml on a short priced dog will I not take a point. You might get a push. Straight everything against the house even if it's dice. Options are never meant for the bettors favor.
 

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Does this same rule get applied to playing teasers or is that a completely different animal. I try to listen to Biz and not cross through zero . I do like teasers and have had some success building a bankroll on a tight budget.any insight on teaser play would be beneficial lol I know it's sucker play but they do hit
 
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Buying points is for suckers. Look who is selling you points. The bookmaker. Is he helping you win? The math doesn't work out in your favor. That's one thing they know.
 
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It’s adds up …Im a dime Player. So by a hook cost for $1000. Another 10%. If you do that 20 time and it does not matter. Win 50%. You would be down another $1000 or $2000. ???IS how many time did you buy the hook that it help your play. Only you can answer that . but if I see a play that I like I’m thinking alway that team will win more than a TD more…….so who care about a 1/2 point……just my thinking. And if you tell me by buying that 1/2 point that you won 5-10 from that……you are a luck man
That's keeping it real. As for the bettors they only have selective memory. Only remember when they win not when they lose. Best one when a slot player tells you they hit 3 jackpots. Then you ask them how much they won. Then they tell you I should of quit when I was ahead. Lost it all +.
 

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As a book I had100 player…I got to a point I knew what they like and not. 90 of them fell into the trap. Bet the friday game…do the Saturday at 1……saturday at 4….Saturday at 7….you get the picture than monday if you were ahead. You try to get more….if you were behind you make a bigger play that you normally would not do. the other 10 would just bet what they wanted 4-5 plays and made a stand just on those plays……..same 3 every year beat me and got the money. Love sitting in a casino with a drink watching people. The once that are drunk, the ones with there last dollar trying to hit that slot. Than the ones that just put aside money to have some fun. The floor of a casino can tell you a lot .
 

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As a book I had100 player…I got to a point I knew what they like and not. 90 of them fell into the trap. Bet the friday game…do the Saturday at 1……saturday at 4….Saturday at 7….you get the picture than monday if you were ahead. You try to get more….if you were behind you make a bigger play that you normally would not do. the other 10 would just bet what they wanted 4-5 plays and made a stand just on those plays……..same 3 every year beat me and got the money. Love sitting in a casino with a drink watching people. The once that are drunk, the ones with there last dollar trying to hit that slot. Than the ones that just put aside money to have some fun. The floor of a casino can tell you a lot .
Ace I've had one losing NFL week out of 13 this year.

The one losing week had some very tough beats, but they were losers. As long as I know my bets were sound with good reasoning, I'm fine if I have a rough day.

My losing week I didn't touch the Monday night game.

The biggest reason people lose is that they look at success by the week, not by the season.

Don't bet because you are down for the week, and play a game that is purely a guess. Pick your spots whenever they come up
 

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My theory has always been : If you feel the need to buy points, why are you betting THAT particular game?
Maybe there are better situations.
 

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Does this same rule get applied to playing teasers or is that a completely different animal. I try to listen to Biz and not cross through zero . I do like teasers and have had some success building a bankroll on a tight budget.any insight on teaser pwith. Takould be beneficial lol I know it's sucker play but they do hit
If i can suggest, get a half point calculator and see. The further you get from the line the less accurate the calculator will be. I think you'll find you seem comfortable there cause they created the illusion but at that same takeb you further from even. Guys like Tuley sure make it sound good.
 

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What has this post turned into. Pick the team to win and you will win 75% of the time. Okay so WHAT team is going to win. This is the stupidest thing people say about gambling on football. Post plays stop with the ASS KISSING.
 

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Here is some for you. Denver +9.5 Giants +7 Lions-2.5 Browns+6. Chargers+3.5
 

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