Exbookie Round 2 Thread For Mon/day

[ACE-ACE]

Record 129-104 +$9,786.00
playoff 53-41 +$2898.00.................................dayoff 1-7 -$840

TWO GAMES TODAY
SA VS DALLAS AND LAC VS PHO


LET'S DO MY LINE TO THE GAMES


.........LINE...........YEAR........LAST20...LAST10........LAST5

SA -3 1/2..........DAL-4........DAL-6.......DAL-13......DAL-13


PHO -4................EV..........LAC-4.5.....LAC-1.......LAC-26

WHAT DO WE SEE!!!!!

AS THE PLAYOFF GOES ON DALLAS WHEN FROM A -4 TO A -13= GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME

RIGHT FROM THE START I HAVE TOLD EVERY ONE THAT DALLAS WILL GET TO THE 3RD ROUND!!!!

PHO GAME IS DIFF/BECAUSE IT GOES BACK FOR LAC FROM -4 1/2 TO -1 IN THE LAST 10 GAMES.....THAN I DID LAST 5 GAMES...WOW !!!! I NEVER SEEN A -26 BEFORE!!!!!
THIS IS BASE ON STATS AND HOME AND LINEOFF!!!!!!

AS OF NOW ITS TELL ME TO LOOK AT BOTH DOGS!!!!

HOMEWORK TIME:toast:

ACE-ACE

 

[jacobtree]

I like Dallas tonight, would call it at $500 or $600 bet. Look foward to your picks Ace.

 

[ACE-ACE]

i Will Bet Dallas Tonight....base On How They Have Played During The Playoff

line Off For The Last 10 Games

dall +43 Vs S.a. -20....


same For Lac

Lac +19 Vs +pho +8......not As Good

now I Like Both Dogs Tonight

but How To Bet It???


two Ways I Could Bet It

i Need Your In Put!!!!!

one Way


dall M/l 1000 To Win $1600
lac M/l 1000 To Win $1660

i Feel That Both Will Not Lose

if I Go 2-0 +$3260
if I Go 1-1 +$600
if I Go 0-2 -$2000


the 2nd Way I Could Bet It


dall M/l 1000 To Win $1600
s.a. -3 1/2 1050 To Win $1000

if S.a. Wins By More Than 4....i Would Be Even

if Dallas Wins....i Would Win $550.00

yes I Know I Could Lose Both!!!!

same For The Other Game

lac M/l $1000 To Win $1660
pho -4 $1050 To Win $1000

if Pho Wins By 5....i Would Be Even
if Lac Wins Outright I Win $610

this Way If Both Dogs Wins... I Win $1160
vs The Other Bet That I Would Win $3260.00


the Lost Factor

the Worst Is Losing Both Of The 1st Bet -$2000.00

the Worst Of The 2nd Way Would Be
if It Land In The Middle On Both...losing -$4100.00


the 2nd Way Is The Best If It Does Not Middle

lost Is "0"....to Try To Win $1160.00
but If It Middles You Will Lose -$4100.00

the Middle Is If S.a. Wins By 2 And Pho Wins By 2!!!!


this Is A Lesson
to Show You Diff/ways Of Thinking

i Know The Way I Want To Do It

just Want To Know How You Look At It And How You Would Bet It

i Will Post My Bet Before 6 Pm Est

ACE-ACE

 

[BALLBREAKER]

I like it...........

Took bo6th Dogs @half/game with the Moneylines.........

Good luck to us

BB:toast:

 

[Dr.Jack]

Ace I Like Suns And Spurs We All Saw What Happened In The Pistons/cavs Game Yesterday Game 7 And A Blow Out. My Cash Will Be On Home Teams Gl Today.


IF DUNCAN, PARKER AND GINO DON'T GET FOULED OUT THEY WILL WIN AND COVER GL

 

[PyRoCaPPer]

ACE, I like the first method. DALLAS M/L and LAC M/L!!! I feel that one of these will definietly HIT! Which way are you leaning now?

 

[TheGoodall]

I dont know why you dont just take the points? And then put a smaller amount on the money lines of each game?

 

[Novato]

I Really like the LAC/PHO OVER Here. They bouth need this one big!!!
Good luck!! in your plays!!

 

[hailtothechief]

Goodall The Opportunity Is To Win More Or Lose More But Which Is The Better Money Management Move. I Think That Is What Ace Is Trying To Show Everyone Here. I Think That You Pick Both Road Teams And Ml Then You Only Ned One Winner For Some Cash.

 

[Erni]

I also thought about Dallas as a better team, and clippers also...
which were supposed to be 4-2 already if they didn't make that stupid mistake by not fouling in 5th game with +3 points and 1 second to go....

but 7th games are always story for itself - slower pace what usualy leads to unders... and those unders are very often deep under the line
and also home team has huge advantage (i forgot exact % but i think around 85% of home teams advance after 7th game)
also slower pace should suite better SAS, and that is why I am not sure about Dallas though Terry should help today

One more thing is that coach od Dallas is coach for a first season, and so far rookie coaches never won game 7

so for now i just took big bet on under SAS
and i decided to skip game PHO - LAC cause PHO is weird team and Nash has probably recoverd a bit from al those small injuries so he may start to play well again, though i am not sure about his status cause you can't read it anywhere...

does a big master Ace have any opinions about this under SAS?

 

[MorningWood]

now we probably know his first/strongest pick:

dallas M/l

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=378285

 

[ACE-ACE]

I also thought about Dallas as a better team, and clippers also...
which were supposed to be 4-2 already if they didn't make that stupid mistake by not fouling in 5th game with +3 points and 1 second to go....

but 7th games are always story for itself - slower pace what usualy leads to unders... and those unders are very often deep under the line
and also home team has huge advantage (i forgot exact % but i think around 85% of home teams advance after 7th game)
also slower pace should suite better SAS, and that is why I am not sure about Dallas though Terry should help today

One more thing is that coach od Dallas is coach for a first season, and so far rookie coaches never won game 7

so for now i just took big bet on under SAS
and i decided to skip game PHO - LAC cause PHO is weird team and Nash has probably recoverd a bit from al those small injuries so he may start to play well again, though i am not sure about his status cause you can't read it anywhere...

does a big master Ace have any opinions about this under SAS?

IF I HAD TO LEAN ONE WAY....IT WOULD BE UNDER....STILL I FEEL THE ODDS MAKER HAS IT CLOSE TO THE NUMBER....SO NO BET FOR ME

 

[Filthy~McNasty]

Interesting approach for sure

Why would you makes 2 bets on the same game with a chance to lose both bets? That's crazy and I would think Ex-Bookie have more sense than that???? If you could win both bets that would be one thing but you can't win both bets as a SPLIT is the best you could do? That's crazy thinking IMO. Bet bet is; "Ex-Bookie used to love guys that bet like that"

McNasty



the 2nd Way I Could Bet It


dall M/l 1000 To Win $1600
s.a. -3 1/2 1050 To Win $1000

if S.a. Wins By More Than 4....i Would Be Even

if Dallas Wins....i Would Win $550.00

yes I Know I Could Lose Both!!!!

same For The Other Game

lac M/l $1000 To Win $1660
pho -4 $1050 To Win $1000

if Pho Wins By 5....i Would Be Even
if Lac Wins Outright I Win $610

this Way If Both Dogs Wins... I Win $1160
vs The Other Bet That I Would Win $3260.00

 

[ACE-ACE]

Why would you makes 2 bets on the same game with a chance to lose both bets? That's crazy and I would think Ex-Bookie have more sense than that???? If you could win both bets that would be one thing but you can't win both bets as a SPLIT is the best you could do? That's crazy thinking IMO. Bet bet is; "Ex-Bookie used to love guys that bet like that"

McNasty



the 2nd Way I Could Bet It


dall M/l 1000 To Win $1600
s.a. -3 1/2 1050 To Win $1000

if S.a. Wins By More Than 4....i Would Be Even

if Dallas Wins....i Would Win $550.00

yes I Know I Could Lose Both!!!!

same For The Other Game

lac M/l $1000 To Win $1660
pho -4 $1050 To Win $1000

if Pho Wins By 5....i Would Be Even
if Lac Wins Outright I Win $610

this Way If Both Dogs Wins... I Win $1160
vs The Other Bet That I Would Win $3260.00

YOU HIT IT ON THE NAIL!!!! BOOKIE WOULD LOVE TO SEE YOU BET THIS KIND OF BET

IF IT DID NOT MIDDLE!!!! YOU WOULD WIN MONEY WITH NO CHANGE OF A LOST....

BUT A MIDDLE IS ALWAY THAT....AND IF YOU BET 10 OF THOSE KIND OF BETS ...YOU WOULD LOSE 2 OF OF 10 IT YOU ARE LUCKIE....AND BE DOWN IN MONEY!!!!

SHORT RUN IT COULD WORK....LONG RUN IT WILL NOT


ALL I WAS TRYING TO DO IS SHOW YOU THIS....I WILL BET THE 1ST ONE.....

ACE-ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

MY BETS


DAL M/L $1000 TO WIN $1600.00
LAC M/L $1000 TO WIN $1660.00

I FEEL THAT BOTH WILL NOT LOSE

IF I GO 2-0 +$3260.00:thumbsup2:

IF I GO 1-1 +$600.00

IF I GO 0-2 -$2000.00 AND I WILL BE GLAD ROUND 2 IS OVER:Sad Face:


I MAKE MY STAND

ACE-ACE

 

[Statking]

 

[Dr.Jack]

ACE NBA TEAMS ARE 77-17 AT HOME IN GAME 7'S BUD TAKE THE POINTS I RESPECT YOUR PLAYS YOU HAVE MADE ME MONEY TRYING TO HELP OUT.


http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&ur=142370433&sub=522701

 

[WildmanTokyo]

dall M/l 1000 To Win $1600
s.a. -3 1/2 1050 To Win $1000

if S.a. Wins By More Than 4....i Would Be Even

if Dallas Wins....i Would Win $550.00

yes I Know I Could Lose Both!!!!

same For The Other Game

lac M/l $1000 To Win $1660
pho -4 $1050 To Win $1000

if Pho Wins By 5....i Would Be Even
if Lac Wins Outright I Win $610

this Way If Both Dogs Wins... I Win $1160
vs The Other Bet That I Would Win $3260.00

I like your thoughts because game 7 is likely to be blowout in any sports. Little chance for those favs to win by 3 or 4 points.

 

[montecristo]

ACE NBA TEAMS ARE 77-17 AT HOME IN GAME 7'S BUD TAKE THE POINTS I RESPECT YOUR PLAYS YOU HAVE MADE ME MONEY TRYING TO HELP OUT.

Dr. Jack where did you find that statistic? Ace what do you think of this if it is true. 77-17 is a damn hard thing to bet against.:smoker2:

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE NBA TEAMS ARE 77-17 AT HOME IN GAME 7'S BUD TAKE THE POINTS I RESPECT YOUR PLAYS YOU HAVE MADE ME MONEY TRYING TO HELP OUT.

THANKS FOR TRYING....I KNOW YOU MEAN WELL...BUT I'M HOPING FOR
1-1....WITH A LITTLE LUCK 2-0

77-17 MUST BE BASE ON A LOT OF YEARS....ITS ALWAY FUN TO LOOK AT....BUT...I FEEL PAST YEAR HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS YEAR

HOPE THAT READS NEXT ROUND 77-19

BEST TO YOU MY FRIEND

ACE-ACE