North Carolina at Rutgers - 7:30 EST ESPN
Line: Rutgers -6 (O/U 46.5)
My Rutgers Picks Lifetime: 25-7 (+14.17 Units)
Week 1 In Retrospect
Rutgers has spent the last 10 days dying to get back on the field after falling to Fresno State 24-7 in its home opener. The Scarlet Knights completely dominated the 1st Half of the game in all areas except for the scoreboard. The offense drove 52 yards on 9 plays on its opening drive only to watch Redshirt-Freshman PK San San Te shank his first career field goal attempt. The Knights then drove 77 yards on 12 plays during its second drive only to forfeit the ball on downs with some questionable play-calling at the goal-line. Rutgers squandered a third opportunity that originated at the Fresno State 40 yard line by attempting a flea-flicker that was doomed from the start and intercepted in the end zone. A fourth drive of 58 yards on 7 plays ended at the Fresno State 5 yard line after a botched snap (according to Schiano the first in any practice/game of the entire season) forced Te to attempt a 22 yard FG flat-footed, sending the kick wide. Add to all of this a dropped pass by a streaking Kenny Britt 50 yards down the right sideline that was a sure TD, and it is safe to say Rutgers left as many as 20-23 points on the board as they walked into the locker room at halftime.
Meanwhile the Rutgers defense was doing the best that they could to keep Rutgers in the game by forcing Fresno State to punt on each of its 1st Half drives and holding the unit to only 102 yards of offense in the half. But three defensive mental errors would doom the Scarlet Knights in the 2nd Half. A blown coverage on 3rd down during Fresno State's opening drive of the 3rd Quarter led to a 31 yard pass that set up a field goal and a 3-0 Fresno State lead. After a subsequent Rutgers stalling at the Fresno State 45 yard line ended in a punt, the Bulldogs caught the Rutgers secondary on a miscommunication and burned the Scarlet Knights for a wide open 77 yard pass to the Rutgers 4 yard line that RB Ryan Mathews cashed in on just one play later to put Fresno State up 10-0. The Rutgers offense, who moved the ball rather effectively for most of the game, drove 44 yards on their next drive before QB Mike Teel was sacked for the first and only time of the game on a 4th and 7 at the Fresno State 36 yard line. After the defense held, Rutgers PR Dennis Campbell returned a Bulldog punt 71 yards for an apparent TD that was wiped out by an illegal block in the back on a block that was not even necessary to spring Campbell on the play. Nevertheless, Rutgers went 81 yards in 8 plays and finally got on the board with a Kordell Young 1 yard TD run to cut the lead to 10-7 with 11:45 left in the 4th Quarter. But the lack of size on the defensive line finally caught up to Rutgers, and in the harsh humidity Rutgers gave up runs of 23 and 27 yards that led the Bulldogs into Rutgers territory. After holding strong on 2 plays, the Rutgers defense gave up an unfathomable 3rd and 23 conversion at the Rutgers 32 yard line with 8:00 left on a third and final blown assignment. Fresno State cashed in from the 1 yard line and gained a 17-7 lead that they would not relinquish.
North Carolina spent Week 1 getting all they could handle from FCS McNeese State. After opening with a 14-0 2nd Quarter lead, McNeese State answered with 2 scores of their own to tie the game 14-14 at the half. They then took a 20-14 lead midway through the 3rd Quarter before being pounded with 3 Tar Heel scoring drives over the last quarter and a half of the game. A late McNeese State TD put the score to 35-27, giving North Carolina all it wanted in what should have been a relatively easy win. What was even more surprising were the 22 first downs McNeese State accumulated to go along with 391 total yards (including 152 against that vaunted North Carolina run defense) as well as the Cowboys' 9/19 efficiency on 3rd down conversions. Had it not been for Tar Heel WR Brandon Tate's 397 all-purpose yard 2 TD performance, we may have a dramatically different outlook on North Carolina coming into this game this Thursday.
The Mood
Although publicly the team has kept quiet about it, in every newspaper and blog it is the same story in Piscataway, this is a MUST WIN game for the Scarlet Knights. This game is their season. If Rutgers loses here, the team is looking at a possible 6-6 regular season which most likely won't be enough to get the team into a bowl game for the first time in 4 years. A win, and Rutgers will in all likelihood go into Morgantown, West Virginia in October with confidence and a 3-1 record. With South Florida struggling against Central Florida, and early losses by West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (and a near one to Temple by Connecticut) the Big East seems to be up for grabs this year. But an 0-2 start may deflate the Scarlet Knights, who will then have 9 more days to think about the loss before going on the road to Navy in Week 4. The bottom line is this, Rutgers needs this game to salvage their season, and Schiano has said all week that after looking at the game film of the Fresno State game, the team is only "inches" away from hitting big plays. He didn't have to tell me that. Rutgers left a ton of points on the board against the Bulldogs, and although the Bulldogs outplayed Rutgers and deserved to win that football game, if they played that game again I would expect a much different outcome than a Fresno State 24-7 victory.
X's and O's
- Aside from a few blown assignments that are almost expected in season openers, the Rutgers defense played rather well against a veteran Fresno State offense that returned the bulk of their starters from a 9-4 team in 2007. I was pleasantly surprised with the run defense early, but the lack of size along the Rutgers front four still concerns me as late in the game Fresno State broke off 3 long runs due to gaping holes up front. North Carolina trots in an average offensive lineman of 6'4 310 lbs compared to Rutgers' average defensive lineman of 6'4 260 lbs. Obviously the Rutgers defensive line is very talented, but will the key question is whether they will get worn down late in the game as witnessed both against Maryland last year and Fresno State this year. The good news for Rutgers is that North Carolina struggled to run the football against McNeese State despite what the stats say. WR Brandon Tate had 3 carries for 106 yards, but when it came down to the actual nuts and bolts running game, RB Greg Little could only muster 37 yards on 14 carries with a long of 11.
- Greg Schiano is a master at being able to bring pressure in unorthodox ways, and look for True Freshman CB David Rowe (#4) and SS Joe Lefeged (#26) to blitz repeatedly off the edge on 3rd downs to pressure North Carolina QB T.J. Yates. Schiano's defense held Fresno State to only 3/13 on 3rd downs, and expect the Rutgers defense to blitz Rowe and Lefeged repeatedly from the secondary forcing Yates (who threw 18 INT's in 2007) into mistakes.
- North Carolina has monsters up front along the defensive line that average around 6'3 305 lbs each. Rutgers QB Mike Teel was presented with pressure against Fresno State that he had not seen before due to the departure in 2007 of LT Pedro Sosa, LG Mike Fladell, and RT Jeremy Zuttah. Troubles along the offensive line also hindered Rutgers' running game against Fresno State during crucial 3rd and short and goal-line situations. Despite the hype about the Tar Heel front four, the unit surrendered 152 yards rushing to McNeese State and was unable to record a sack. On paper this matchup looks like a mismatch in favor of North Carolina, but the battle between the Rutgers OL and North Carolina DL will likely be the largest factor in the game.
- Schiano has talked all week about the defense's inability to produce a turnover against Fresno State, and I would expect the Rutgers to send a lot of exotic blitz packages early and often at turnover-prone QB T.J. Yates. If I were North Carolina I would get all the reverses, cutbacks, and slant-and-go's out of the playbook and ready for use to counter what should be an overly aggressive Rutgers defense.
X-Factor
- Rutgers TE Kevin Brock hauled in 2 big passes over the middle for 44 yards in the Fresno State game. If WR Kenny Britt continues to get double-teamed, look for TE Kevin Brock to have a big game against a North Carolina LB corps that is without question the weakest unit on their young defense.
Prediction
I really think we are going to learn a lot about Rutgers based on how they play tonight. I feel most fans have already given them a free pass for the Fresno State game, but a loss to North Carolina may blow the door right off of the season. Even though North Carolina seems to match up very well to Rutgers, and their large OL and DL's are the perfect matchups to our greatest weaknesses, I think Rutgers finds someway to win this game tonight. It will be an electric crowd as always, and the "North Carolina" name will probably get everybody in the stands hyped for this one.
However, I want everyone to understand that I think the line is HORRIBLY OVERPRICED and you are not really getting any value in what is a game that once again may come down to a coin flip. In Week 1 I stayed clear of making a play, but said if I had a gun to my head I would pick Fresno State +4 and Under the number. Both of those came true. This week I am staying clear of making a play once again, but if I had a gun to my head I would pick Rutgers -6.
The Score
Rutgers 23 - North Carolina 17
The Pick
NONE - The reason why I am not making a play on this is because I am still questioning whether or not Rutgers will even win this game, let alone cover the 6 points.
Line: Rutgers -6 (O/U 46.5)
My Rutgers Picks Lifetime: 25-7 (+14.17 Units)
Week 1 In Retrospect
Rutgers has spent the last 10 days dying to get back on the field after falling to Fresno State 24-7 in its home opener. The Scarlet Knights completely dominated the 1st Half of the game in all areas except for the scoreboard. The offense drove 52 yards on 9 plays on its opening drive only to watch Redshirt-Freshman PK San San Te shank his first career field goal attempt. The Knights then drove 77 yards on 12 plays during its second drive only to forfeit the ball on downs with some questionable play-calling at the goal-line. Rutgers squandered a third opportunity that originated at the Fresno State 40 yard line by attempting a flea-flicker that was doomed from the start and intercepted in the end zone. A fourth drive of 58 yards on 7 plays ended at the Fresno State 5 yard line after a botched snap (according to Schiano the first in any practice/game of the entire season) forced Te to attempt a 22 yard FG flat-footed, sending the kick wide. Add to all of this a dropped pass by a streaking Kenny Britt 50 yards down the right sideline that was a sure TD, and it is safe to say Rutgers left as many as 20-23 points on the board as they walked into the locker room at halftime.
Meanwhile the Rutgers defense was doing the best that they could to keep Rutgers in the game by forcing Fresno State to punt on each of its 1st Half drives and holding the unit to only 102 yards of offense in the half. But three defensive mental errors would doom the Scarlet Knights in the 2nd Half. A blown coverage on 3rd down during Fresno State's opening drive of the 3rd Quarter led to a 31 yard pass that set up a field goal and a 3-0 Fresno State lead. After a subsequent Rutgers stalling at the Fresno State 45 yard line ended in a punt, the Bulldogs caught the Rutgers secondary on a miscommunication and burned the Scarlet Knights for a wide open 77 yard pass to the Rutgers 4 yard line that RB Ryan Mathews cashed in on just one play later to put Fresno State up 10-0. The Rutgers offense, who moved the ball rather effectively for most of the game, drove 44 yards on their next drive before QB Mike Teel was sacked for the first and only time of the game on a 4th and 7 at the Fresno State 36 yard line. After the defense held, Rutgers PR Dennis Campbell returned a Bulldog punt 71 yards for an apparent TD that was wiped out by an illegal block in the back on a block that was not even necessary to spring Campbell on the play. Nevertheless, Rutgers went 81 yards in 8 plays and finally got on the board with a Kordell Young 1 yard TD run to cut the lead to 10-7 with 11:45 left in the 4th Quarter. But the lack of size on the defensive line finally caught up to Rutgers, and in the harsh humidity Rutgers gave up runs of 23 and 27 yards that led the Bulldogs into Rutgers territory. After holding strong on 2 plays, the Rutgers defense gave up an unfathomable 3rd and 23 conversion at the Rutgers 32 yard line with 8:00 left on a third and final blown assignment. Fresno State cashed in from the 1 yard line and gained a 17-7 lead that they would not relinquish.
North Carolina spent Week 1 getting all they could handle from FCS McNeese State. After opening with a 14-0 2nd Quarter lead, McNeese State answered with 2 scores of their own to tie the game 14-14 at the half. They then took a 20-14 lead midway through the 3rd Quarter before being pounded with 3 Tar Heel scoring drives over the last quarter and a half of the game. A late McNeese State TD put the score to 35-27, giving North Carolina all it wanted in what should have been a relatively easy win. What was even more surprising were the 22 first downs McNeese State accumulated to go along with 391 total yards (including 152 against that vaunted North Carolina run defense) as well as the Cowboys' 9/19 efficiency on 3rd down conversions. Had it not been for Tar Heel WR Brandon Tate's 397 all-purpose yard 2 TD performance, we may have a dramatically different outlook on North Carolina coming into this game this Thursday.
The Mood
Although publicly the team has kept quiet about it, in every newspaper and blog it is the same story in Piscataway, this is a MUST WIN game for the Scarlet Knights. This game is their season. If Rutgers loses here, the team is looking at a possible 6-6 regular season which most likely won't be enough to get the team into a bowl game for the first time in 4 years. A win, and Rutgers will in all likelihood go into Morgantown, West Virginia in October with confidence and a 3-1 record. With South Florida struggling against Central Florida, and early losses by West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati (and a near one to Temple by Connecticut) the Big East seems to be up for grabs this year. But an 0-2 start may deflate the Scarlet Knights, who will then have 9 more days to think about the loss before going on the road to Navy in Week 4. The bottom line is this, Rutgers needs this game to salvage their season, and Schiano has said all week that after looking at the game film of the Fresno State game, the team is only "inches" away from hitting big plays. He didn't have to tell me that. Rutgers left a ton of points on the board against the Bulldogs, and although the Bulldogs outplayed Rutgers and deserved to win that football game, if they played that game again I would expect a much different outcome than a Fresno State 24-7 victory.
X's and O's
- Aside from a few blown assignments that are almost expected in season openers, the Rutgers defense played rather well against a veteran Fresno State offense that returned the bulk of their starters from a 9-4 team in 2007. I was pleasantly surprised with the run defense early, but the lack of size along the Rutgers front four still concerns me as late in the game Fresno State broke off 3 long runs due to gaping holes up front. North Carolina trots in an average offensive lineman of 6'4 310 lbs compared to Rutgers' average defensive lineman of 6'4 260 lbs. Obviously the Rutgers defensive line is very talented, but will the key question is whether they will get worn down late in the game as witnessed both against Maryland last year and Fresno State this year. The good news for Rutgers is that North Carolina struggled to run the football against McNeese State despite what the stats say. WR Brandon Tate had 3 carries for 106 yards, but when it came down to the actual nuts and bolts running game, RB Greg Little could only muster 37 yards on 14 carries with a long of 11.
- Greg Schiano is a master at being able to bring pressure in unorthodox ways, and look for True Freshman CB David Rowe (#4) and SS Joe Lefeged (#26) to blitz repeatedly off the edge on 3rd downs to pressure North Carolina QB T.J. Yates. Schiano's defense held Fresno State to only 3/13 on 3rd downs, and expect the Rutgers defense to blitz Rowe and Lefeged repeatedly from the secondary forcing Yates (who threw 18 INT's in 2007) into mistakes.
- North Carolina has monsters up front along the defensive line that average around 6'3 305 lbs each. Rutgers QB Mike Teel was presented with pressure against Fresno State that he had not seen before due to the departure in 2007 of LT Pedro Sosa, LG Mike Fladell, and RT Jeremy Zuttah. Troubles along the offensive line also hindered Rutgers' running game against Fresno State during crucial 3rd and short and goal-line situations. Despite the hype about the Tar Heel front four, the unit surrendered 152 yards rushing to McNeese State and was unable to record a sack. On paper this matchup looks like a mismatch in favor of North Carolina, but the battle between the Rutgers OL and North Carolina DL will likely be the largest factor in the game.
- Schiano has talked all week about the defense's inability to produce a turnover against Fresno State, and I would expect the Rutgers to send a lot of exotic blitz packages early and often at turnover-prone QB T.J. Yates. If I were North Carolina I would get all the reverses, cutbacks, and slant-and-go's out of the playbook and ready for use to counter what should be an overly aggressive Rutgers defense.
X-Factor
- Rutgers TE Kevin Brock hauled in 2 big passes over the middle for 44 yards in the Fresno State game. If WR Kenny Britt continues to get double-teamed, look for TE Kevin Brock to have a big game against a North Carolina LB corps that is without question the weakest unit on their young defense.
Prediction
I really think we are going to learn a lot about Rutgers based on how they play tonight. I feel most fans have already given them a free pass for the Fresno State game, but a loss to North Carolina may blow the door right off of the season. Even though North Carolina seems to match up very well to Rutgers, and their large OL and DL's are the perfect matchups to our greatest weaknesses, I think Rutgers finds someway to win this game tonight. It will be an electric crowd as always, and the "North Carolina" name will probably get everybody in the stands hyped for this one.
However, I want everyone to understand that I think the line is HORRIBLY OVERPRICED and you are not really getting any value in what is a game that once again may come down to a coin flip. In Week 1 I stayed clear of making a play, but said if I had a gun to my head I would pick Fresno State +4 and Under the number. Both of those came true. This week I am staying clear of making a play once again, but if I had a gun to my head I would pick Rutgers -6.
The Score
Rutgers 23 - North Carolina 17
The Pick
NONE - The reason why I am not making a play on this is because I am still questioning whether or not Rutgers will even win this game, let alone cover the 6 points.
hno:
