sherwood
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West Virginia –2 over Creighton @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (9:30 PM)
The Mountaineers made a serious run through the conference tourney and upset Boston College and Villanova before falling in the finals to Syracuse. They also opened the tourney with an easy win over Providence. The Mountaineers played nearly flawlessly in every half of every game in the championships with the exception of the first half against Syracuse. Remember, this team opened the year 10-0 and cracked the top 25 before a rash of losses that saw them lose 7 of its final 16 games. However, when it counted most the Mountaineers stepped it up and we can’t forget to mention that they were in the powerful Big East. The only problem with WVU is that they rely a little too heavily on the three point shot, however, at the moment, confidence is sky high and coach John Beilein is as good an X-and-O man as there is in the country. Beilein isn't afraid to tinker with his lineup and made a season-changing move by featuring Kevin Pittsnogle even more in the offense. The 6-11 Pittsnogle is a matchup problem for opposing teams with his ability to step out and make the 3. Many are calling for the upset here as the Bluejays have won eight in a row and can really work the boards. Thing is, they play in the MVC, a weak conference with weak teams and the Bluejays didn’t face a single ranked team all year and finished with a 23-10 record. Considering its opposition all year, Creighton, if they were really that good, should have gone 28-5 at worst. The Mountaneers played 10 ranked teams this year and won six of them, including a sweep over Pittsburgh. Sorry folks but there is no upset in the cards here. Play: West Virginia –2 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: West Virginia.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Mil/Wisc +5 over Alabama @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (12:25 PM) <o></o>
For reasons that have escaped most rational beings, the No. 12 tends to create more upsets than any other match-up. For example, while the No. 6 gets out of the first game about 77% of the time against No. 11, the 5 has only a 63% survival rate against the 12. Though hardly a sure thing for the Panthers, it certainly gives UMW a better statistical chance than had it been slotted at 13 or 14. That’s not the only reason we like the dog here. UWM plays a lock-down defense and can make the three-point shot, two huge advantages for an underdog. Alabama has not impressed us one bit down the stretch. This edition of the Tide is extremely vulnerable. They dropped three of six to close out the year and the wins came over Ole’ Miss, Mississippi St. and Auburn, not exactly the cream of the crop. Talent-wise, the Tide is rich with perhaps the best starting five of any team. But you also have a team with a thin bench, some iffy ball-handling outside of Steele and a star player who can sometimes be his own worst enemy. Furthermore, they get into foul trouble too often and that’s where they get into serious trouble. The Panthers are an aggressive team that can get a team like Alabama to commit fouls and that’s going to be the downfall of the Crimson Tide. Their just not deep enough to overcome foul trouble. Play: Milwaukee-Wisc +5 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: Milwaukee Wisc. <o></o>
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Boston College –6 over Penn @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (2:45 PM)<o></o>
Perhaps the role of underdog isnt so bad after all. Just ask the Eagles, who, at the beginning of the year wasn’t expected to do anything. Than, to the surprise of everyone, the Eagles soared to No. 3 in the country after opening the year 20-0. Than came the accolades and the subsequent fall of these Eagles. Now, after going 4-4 in their last eight games and losing to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament opener, they're right back to getting no respect, just the way the Eagles like it and so do we. It should be noted that BC’s sixth man, Jermaine Watson, may or may not play (he’s not practiced all week), and that’s one of the reasons money is coming in on the Quakers. Penn won just four of their first 11 games and than conference play started and the Quakers ran off 16 of their final 17 games and the division championship to set up this showdown. So, while the Quakers were beating up on Yale, Princeton, Brown, Columbia, and Cornell the Eagles were going head to head with Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown and Pittsburgh among others. We should also mention that they were winning most of those games too. However, a rough stretch to end the season combined with the Quakers strong run, saw this line open at 7½ and get bet down to six. Penn is not as talented as years gone by with perhaps the exception of their guard play. To think that they are in a position to compete with Boston College is ludicrous. BC easily beat Syracuse a few weeks back at home. The Eagles are still one of the toughest teams in this field. The Eagles came back from deficits against low-, mid- and high-major teams this season. Jared Dudley and Craig Smith are two of the top forwards at their respective positions. This team has a weakness in its perimeter shooting, but it hasn't been a reason for their losses. They have lacked energy at the start of games and, at times, the hole they dig has been too big to recover from. There’s no chance of them falling behind by a large margin and it says here they come out fired up and put away this opponent early. Play: Boston College –6 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Boston College<o></o>
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Wake Forest –17½ over T. Chatanooga @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (7:10)<o></o>
This one’s a total mismatch and the Deacons will also welcome back Chris Paul after he was suspended for punching a player in the groin. Paul is a stud and he’s as hungry as a herd of wolfpack. He’s the main reason that the Deacons are considered a contender. Wake’s perimeter shooting is as deadly as any in the nation and their play up front is excellent too. The problem with the Deacons in the defense, however, that’s not going to matter here. This group from Chatanooga has about as much chance as Brian Nicholls walking away a free man. The Mocs only reason for being here is that Davidson got upset in the conference tourney and that opened the door for them. We’ll get back to Wake later in the tournament as we don’t want to take up much space or time looking at this one. Play: Wake Forest –17½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Wake Forest<o></o>
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Fair Dickenson +26½ over Illinois @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (7:10 PM)<o></o>
It’s no secret anywhere that the Illini are one of favorites to win it all and all the so-called “experts” are picking them to be in the Final Four. That’s very nice indeed but we’re not. In fact, of all the No. 1 seeds, we’re calling for the Illini to be the first eliminated. However, that elimination is surely not about to happen here. Having said that, with all the hype surrounding this dance and the Illini, the problem with wagering on this team is that you’re going to have to pay a premium to do so. That’s something we’re just not going to do. Fair Dickenson is about the least known team in the tourney and that’s makes them hard to wager on. However, they lost by just a single point to Pepperdine and by eight to Arizona St. Bottom line is that we’re not laying 26½ points with the Illini, who are prematurely talking about Duke, North Carolina and others and aren’t even mentioning the “one game at a time” theory. Play: Fair Dickenson +26½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Illinois<o></o>
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Texas –1½ over Nevada @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (7:10 PM)<o></o>
The Longhorns avoided complete collapse after the midseason flunkout of leading scorer and rebounder P.J. Tucker and the season-ending injury to big freshman LaMarcus Aldridge. They went just 7-6 over the team’s final 13 games and many people are calling for an early exit for this bunch. We agree, they’ll be out early but likely not in the first round. Something good happens to the Longhorns this time of year and they still have seven other quality players to get them through the first round. Nevada is weak offensively and their too slow for our liking to endorse. The Longhorns can exploit that weakness by keeping the game moving at all times and not stopping. Some believe that Nevada should have been higher ranked them ninth in this tourney but we’re not buying that for a second. In the only game against a ranked opponent all year, the Wolf Pack got hammered to the tune of 33 points by Kansas. Nevada ran the WAC quite easily but that conference is filled with marshmallows and the Longhorns are not in that category. The Big 12 has at least a half dozen quality teams and lets not forget that the Longhorns played three of their final four games against ranked teams and beat No. 8 Oklahoma St just 11 days ago. Nevada is the class of the WAC but unfortunately this isn’t the WAC. Nevada just might get whacked here. Play: Texas –1½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: Texas <o></o>
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Eastern Kentucky +16 over Kentucky @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (12:20 PM)<o></o>
We like the Wildcats very much indeed, not because of their talent but because they play hard, always. That’s been the story for Kentucky for years, overachievers if you will. Problem is that has a way of catching up to them this time of year and there’s not a chance that we’re spotting anyone 16 points with this Wildcat team. The Colonels came out of the OVC with an 11-5 record and finished up 22-8 overall. They played Louisville and Florida and although the Gators blew them away they played pretty good against the Cardinal. Interestingly enough, the game against Louisville came right after getting smoked by Florida. Lesson learned? Anyway, the Colonels are well balanced and while they’re chances of winning here are slim, we trust they’ll keep it in this range. Much more about the Wildcats later but don’t put too much faith in them to make it to the Elite Eight. Play: Eastern Kentucky +16 (No bets) Bracket pick: Kentucky<o></o>
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Iowa +150 over Cincinnati @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (2:40 PM)<o></o>
When it comes time to dance it’s usually the team with the better guard play that has the better chance and there’s little doubt that the Hawkeyes have the edge in that department. The Bearcats can’t be trusted against quality opposition and that was evident in the regular season too. In fact, Cincy beat the teams that it should have going 21-1 against teams outside the RPI Top 50. However, when it came to playing against NCAA Tournament-caliber competition the Bearcats went 3-5 (inside the Top 50). That’s significant and can’t be overlooked. The Bearcats are terrific defensively but a lack of depth and the inability to beat tough teams is a huge concern. The Hawkeyes aren’t deep either, however, they found a way to win down the stretch after it seemed like they were a lock to play in the NIT. A win over Michigan St and a loss to Wisconsin on a buzzer beater taught this team that they can win without superstar, Pierre Pierce (Pierce thought it would be a better idea to assault a woman rather than get drafted into the NBA). Anyway, he was kicked off the team and Iowa State transfer Adam Haluska has stepped up large. Cincinnati is always vulnerable this time of year and surely the value is on the puppy here. Of course the Hawkeyes can win this game and should be in a position to do just that. Play: Iowa +1.50 (Risking 1.5 units) Bracket pick: Iowa<o></o>
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Washington –20½ over Montana @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (3:00 PM)<o></o>
Say hello to the greatest show on parkay, or should we say the fastest. Enter the Huskies, one of the best teams in the land and a definite threat to win it all. The Huskies led the nation with an average of 86 points per game.The Huskies, to be sure, have their share of glamour. The high-wire act of Nate Robinson, the sweet-shooting of Tre Simmons, a fast-paced offense that piles up points as quickly as Jose Canseco rats out players. For a small team they also rebound large. In winning the Pac-10 tournament, the Huskies out-rebounded Arizona State (which featured the conference's leading rebounder, Ike Diogu), Stanford (which had led the Pac-10 in rebounding four of the past five seasons) and Arizona (which featured 6-foot-11 Channing Frye and 6-10 Ivan Radenovic) by a combined 129-94. What makes that even more remarkable is that the Huskies don’t have a single player over 6’8”. They’ll outwork you, outscore you and out-rebound you. This team has few weaknesses and their work ethic and desire is perhaps their greatest asset. The Huskies are our choice to win it all but for now we’ll just call them to win this one by 30 or more. Play Washington –20½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Washington<o></o>
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Pacific +4 over Pittsburgh @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (12:40 PM)<o></o>
The Panthers struggled all year against quality opponents and we see the Tigers as a quality team, both offensively and defensively.. The Tigers went 18-0 in conference play and have the best record in the land since January of 04. The Tigers are in the top 10 nationally in field goal shooting (50.3 percent as a team) and shoot a crisp 38 percent from 3-point range. No one's going to pencil in the Tigers for the Final Four on their tournament pool bracket, but this is not a team anyone wants to face in the opening round, or the second. Certainly not the Panthers, who’s second half collapse is not very inspiring. This Panther squad lacks both rhythm and scoring. Chevon Troutman has been the most reliable Panther this season but if he doesn’t have a huge game the Panthers chances of losing are great. In fact, even if he does have a big game the Panthers chances of losing are still great. We’re just not down with Pitt, they lack the all-important intensity and toughness and Pacific flat out wants it more. It says here they’ll get it. Play: Pacific +4 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Pacific<o></o>
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LSU -3 over Alabama Birhingham @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (9:40 PM)<o></o>
Any team that loses to a horrible East Carolina team when the chips were down is a team we want no part of. The Blazers don’t shoot well at all, they don’t rebound well and they rely on a silly full court pressure defense that’s supposed to catch teams off guard. Yeah, sure. That may have worked last year in an upset over Kentucky but it’s not going to work well this year. Not against this LSU team. The Tigers are extremely talented and possess one of the best starting five in the land. That bodes well here because if your guards can play, and LSU’s can, beating the full court press is a cinch. Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers build a big lead early and than watch the Blazers swith gears to something they know nothing about. The Tigers are bigger, better and only a total collapse against this weak Blazer team will prevent them from advancing. We don’t see that happening and we’re calling this one of the better wagers in the opening round. Play: LSU –3 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: LSU<o></o>
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Utah St +5 over Arizona @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise Idaho (7:20 PM)<o></o>
When it comes to shooting the rock there’s the Wildcats Salim Stoudamire and than there’s everyone else. This guy is the best shooter in the nation and it’s not even close. Arizona looked unbeatable at times this year and at other times they looked very ordinary. Still, a 15-3 record in the tough PAC-10 can’t be overlooked and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Wildcats go very deep, perhaps even to the final four. That being said, the Aggies are a determined bunch that plays a rock solid defense and this is not the best match-up for the “never saw a shot they didn’t like” Wildcats. If the Wildcats are hot they’ll win this game but there’s a danger of them being cold and with that in mind this relentless Aggie team has a legitimate shot to pull off the upset. Utah St. is one of those teams that are highly unpredictable. They win when their supposed to lose and lose when their supposed to win. The Aggies aren’t careless with the ball and when they get beat they get beat honestly. They won’t beat themselves and that makes them dangerous. Talent wise we’ll have to go with Arizona and we’re calling this one of the toughest first round games to predict. Play: Utah St. +5 (No bets) Bracket pick: Arizona<o></o>
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UTEP +3 over Utah @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (3:05 PM)<o></o>
Utah was by far the best team in what proved to be an average Mountain West Conference. The Utes at one point won 18 straight, including their first 11 league games before falling at New Mexico. Utah also impressed in close losses to Washington (78-71) and at Arizona (67-62). Still, the Miners finished just 2 games behind the Utes and anytime a team puts a dynamic duo on the floor like Rivera and Thomas, possibilities exist. The key to this game for the Miners is limiting the touches for Andrew Bogut, one of the nations best players, bar none. Furthermore, we’re always leery of teams that lack the all-important “intangibles” and the Utes lack it sorely. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it’s worth repeating that this group of Utes is about the most nonchalant bunch that we’ve ever seen. That make them ripe to get upset and we believe that Utah will not last long in this event. They may get by here but don’t bet on it. Play: UTEP +3 (No bets) Bracket pick: UTEP
<o>Niagara +12½ over Oklahoma @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (12:45 PM)<o></o>
The Sooners ended the regular season with a spectacular rush, winning six straight for a share of the Big 12 title and the No. 1 seed in the league tournament. They were upset by Texas Tech in the Big 12 semifinals but remain a formidable NCAA team. With two athletic and effective big men (Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout), a variety of productive wing players (Terrell Everett, Lawrence McKenzie, Jaison Williams, David Godbold) and a feisty little point guard (5-7 Drew Lavender), Oklahoma has the necessary parts. Quick, athletic and now confident as any team in the country, Oklahoma is battle-tested in the Big 12 and could be in for a long, long run. The Purple Eagles are called an explosive bunch that can score with the best of them. However, when you’re playing teams like Sienna, Iona, and Marist, you’re supposed to score. Niagara comes out of the same conference that Manhattan came out of last year and Manhattan pulled off a couple of upsets. In fact, they didn’t look a bit out of place. The Sooners had better be prepared or the same fate may be waiting for them. Watch for the Purple Eagles big three of Cruz, Brooks and Mendez and watch Niagara give the Sooners a big time scare. Play: Niagara +12½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Oklahoma
UCLA +3½ over Texas Tech @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (9:45 PM)<o></o>
Like the way Bobby Knight has this Red Raider team playing at the moment and it seems that everyone else agrees with that too. That’s a red flag in itself and while the Bruins have played terrible on many nights they’ve also looked awfully good too. The Bruins were clearly a bubble team about 10 days ago but a late run capped off by a nice win over the Irish pushed them over the top. Some will argue that just getting here is a big step for UCLA with three freshman starters but we’ve seen far too often what happens when a young teams gets some confidence. The Bruins are a dangerous bunch at the moment and it’s a must that Dijon Thompson steps up big. He’s certainly capable and so is UCLA. Tech likes an up-tempo style and that style has never faired well in this dance and perhaps that’s one of the reasons Knight’s teams haven’t made it to the Sweet Sixteen since 94. They likely won’t make it happen here because they’re weak on the defensive boards and can easily get pushed around. Tech is ripe for the pickings. Play: UCLA +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: UCLA <o></o>
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Winthrop +13½ over Gonzaga @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (7:25 PM)<o></o>
Don’t count this little known Eagles team out. If there’s a huge upset in the first round this could be it. The Eagles come into the NCAAs having rolled to one of the nation's gaudiest records, finishing 27-5 after winning their last 18 games. Winthrop ripped through the Big South conference regular season and didn't slow down in the tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Winthrop also won at Providence (pre-Friars collapse) and also played at Arkansas, South Carolina and Oregon during the non-conference season. Now, don’t get us wrong, they played a bunch of nobody’s but they destroyed those nobodies in rather impressive fashion and all the Zags have to do is take this team lightly and it could get awfully scary. You see, the Zags are long past the “just happy to be here” stage and many experts feel this team can make some serious noise this year. Problem is, if we listened to the experts we’d all be broke. This line opened at 11 and has been bet up to 13½ and we’re playing the fade here, an angle that cashes in more times than not. Remember, the Zags lost three starters from a year ago and while they had a great year, too much is expected of them this year and that’s usually spells trouble in round one. Not saying that the Eagles will win but we’re also not willing to spot this squad 13½ points and thus, we’ll watch this one with great interest. Play Winthrop +13½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Gonzaga</o>
The Mountaineers made a serious run through the conference tourney and upset Boston College and Villanova before falling in the finals to Syracuse. They also opened the tourney with an easy win over Providence. The Mountaineers played nearly flawlessly in every half of every game in the championships with the exception of the first half against Syracuse. Remember, this team opened the year 10-0 and cracked the top 25 before a rash of losses that saw them lose 7 of its final 16 games. However, when it counted most the Mountaineers stepped it up and we can’t forget to mention that they were in the powerful Big East. The only problem with WVU is that they rely a little too heavily on the three point shot, however, at the moment, confidence is sky high and coach John Beilein is as good an X-and-O man as there is in the country. Beilein isn't afraid to tinker with his lineup and made a season-changing move by featuring Kevin Pittsnogle even more in the offense. The 6-11 Pittsnogle is a matchup problem for opposing teams with his ability to step out and make the 3. Many are calling for the upset here as the Bluejays have won eight in a row and can really work the boards. Thing is, they play in the MVC, a weak conference with weak teams and the Bluejays didn’t face a single ranked team all year and finished with a 23-10 record. Considering its opposition all year, Creighton, if they were really that good, should have gone 28-5 at worst. The Mountaneers played 10 ranked teams this year and won six of them, including a sweep over Pittsburgh. Sorry folks but there is no upset in the cards here. Play: West Virginia –2 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: West Virginia.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>Mil/Wisc +5 over Alabama @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (12:25 PM) <o
></o>For reasons that have escaped most rational beings, the No. 12 tends to create more upsets than any other match-up. For example, while the No. 6 gets out of the first game about 77% of the time against No. 11, the 5 has only a 63% survival rate against the 12. Though hardly a sure thing for the Panthers, it certainly gives UMW a better statistical chance than had it been slotted at 13 or 14. That’s not the only reason we like the dog here. UWM plays a lock-down defense and can make the three-point shot, two huge advantages for an underdog. Alabama has not impressed us one bit down the stretch. This edition of the Tide is extremely vulnerable. They dropped three of six to close out the year and the wins came over Ole’ Miss, Mississippi St. and Auburn, not exactly the cream of the crop. Talent-wise, the Tide is rich with perhaps the best starting five of any team. But you also have a team with a thin bench, some iffy ball-handling outside of Steele and a star player who can sometimes be his own worst enemy. Furthermore, they get into foul trouble too often and that’s where they get into serious trouble. The Panthers are an aggressive team that can get a team like Alabama to commit fouls and that’s going to be the downfall of the Crimson Tide. Their just not deep enough to overcome foul trouble. Play: Milwaukee-Wisc +5 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: Milwaukee Wisc. <o
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></o>Boston College –6 over Penn @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (2:45 PM)<o
></o>Perhaps the role of underdog isnt so bad after all. Just ask the Eagles, who, at the beginning of the year wasn’t expected to do anything. Than, to the surprise of everyone, the Eagles soared to No. 3 in the country after opening the year 20-0. Than came the accolades and the subsequent fall of these Eagles. Now, after going 4-4 in their last eight games and losing to West Virginia in the Big East Tournament opener, they're right back to getting no respect, just the way the Eagles like it and so do we. It should be noted that BC’s sixth man, Jermaine Watson, may or may not play (he’s not practiced all week), and that’s one of the reasons money is coming in on the Quakers. Penn won just four of their first 11 games and than conference play started and the Quakers ran off 16 of their final 17 games and the division championship to set up this showdown. So, while the Quakers were beating up on Yale, Princeton, Brown, Columbia, and Cornell the Eagles were going head to head with Notre Dame, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown and Pittsburgh among others. We should also mention that they were winning most of those games too. However, a rough stretch to end the season combined with the Quakers strong run, saw this line open at 7½ and get bet down to six. Penn is not as talented as years gone by with perhaps the exception of their guard play. To think that they are in a position to compete with Boston College is ludicrous. BC easily beat Syracuse a few weeks back at home. The Eagles are still one of the toughest teams in this field. The Eagles came back from deficits against low-, mid- and high-major teams this season. Jared Dudley and Craig Smith are two of the top forwards at their respective positions. This team has a weakness in its perimeter shooting, but it hasn't been a reason for their losses. They have lacked energy at the start of games and, at times, the hole they dig has been too big to recover from. There’s no chance of them falling behind by a large margin and it says here they come out fired up and put away this opponent early. Play: Boston College –6 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Boston College<o
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></o>Wake Forest –17½ over T. Chatanooga @ CSU Convo Center in Cleveland (7:10)<o
></o>This one’s a total mismatch and the Deacons will also welcome back Chris Paul after he was suspended for punching a player in the groin. Paul is a stud and he’s as hungry as a herd of wolfpack. He’s the main reason that the Deacons are considered a contender. Wake’s perimeter shooting is as deadly as any in the nation and their play up front is excellent too. The problem with the Deacons in the defense, however, that’s not going to matter here. This group from Chatanooga has about as much chance as Brian Nicholls walking away a free man. The Mocs only reason for being here is that Davidson got upset in the conference tourney and that opened the door for them. We’ll get back to Wake later in the tournament as we don’t want to take up much space or time looking at this one. Play: Wake Forest –17½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Wake Forest<o
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></o>Fair Dickenson +26½ over Illinois @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (7:10 PM)<o
></o>It’s no secret anywhere that the Illini are one of favorites to win it all and all the so-called “experts” are picking them to be in the Final Four. That’s very nice indeed but we’re not. In fact, of all the No. 1 seeds, we’re calling for the Illini to be the first eliminated. However, that elimination is surely not about to happen here. Having said that, with all the hype surrounding this dance and the Illini, the problem with wagering on this team is that you’re going to have to pay a premium to do so. That’s something we’re just not going to do. Fair Dickenson is about the least known team in the tourney and that’s makes them hard to wager on. However, they lost by just a single point to Pepperdine and by eight to Arizona St. Bottom line is that we’re not laying 26½ points with the Illini, who are prematurely talking about Duke, North Carolina and others and aren’t even mentioning the “one game at a time” theory. Play: Fair Dickenson +26½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Illinois<o
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></o>Texas –1½ over Nevada @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (7:10 PM)<o
></o>The Longhorns avoided complete collapse after the midseason flunkout of leading scorer and rebounder P.J. Tucker and the season-ending injury to big freshman LaMarcus Aldridge. They went just 7-6 over the team’s final 13 games and many people are calling for an early exit for this bunch. We agree, they’ll be out early but likely not in the first round. Something good happens to the Longhorns this time of year and they still have seven other quality players to get them through the first round. Nevada is weak offensively and their too slow for our liking to endorse. The Longhorns can exploit that weakness by keeping the game moving at all times and not stopping. Some believe that Nevada should have been higher ranked them ninth in this tourney but we’re not buying that for a second. In the only game against a ranked opponent all year, the Wolf Pack got hammered to the tune of 33 points by Kansas. Nevada ran the WAC quite easily but that conference is filled with marshmallows and the Longhorns are not in that category. The Big 12 has at least a half dozen quality teams and lets not forget that the Longhorns played three of their final four games against ranked teams and beat No. 8 Oklahoma St just 11 days ago. Nevada is the class of the WAC but unfortunately this isn’t the WAC. Nevada just might get whacked here. Play: Texas –1½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5). Bracket pick: Texas <o
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></o>Eastern Kentucky +16 over Kentucky @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (12:20 PM)<o
></o>We like the Wildcats very much indeed, not because of their talent but because they play hard, always. That’s been the story for Kentucky for years, overachievers if you will. Problem is that has a way of catching up to them this time of year and there’s not a chance that we’re spotting anyone 16 points with this Wildcat team. The Colonels came out of the OVC with an 11-5 record and finished up 22-8 overall. They played Louisville and Florida and although the Gators blew them away they played pretty good against the Cardinal. Interestingly enough, the game against Louisville came right after getting smoked by Florida. Lesson learned? Anyway, the Colonels are well balanced and while they’re chances of winning here are slim, we trust they’ll keep it in this range. Much more about the Wildcats later but don’t put too much faith in them to make it to the Elite Eight. Play: Eastern Kentucky +16 (No bets) Bracket pick: Kentucky<o
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></o>Iowa +150 over Cincinnati @ RCA Dome in Indianapolis (2:40 PM)<o
></o>When it comes time to dance it’s usually the team with the better guard play that has the better chance and there’s little doubt that the Hawkeyes have the edge in that department. The Bearcats can’t be trusted against quality opposition and that was evident in the regular season too. In fact, Cincy beat the teams that it should have going 21-1 against teams outside the RPI Top 50. However, when it came to playing against NCAA Tournament-caliber competition the Bearcats went 3-5 (inside the Top 50). That’s significant and can’t be overlooked. The Bearcats are terrific defensively but a lack of depth and the inability to beat tough teams is a huge concern. The Hawkeyes aren’t deep either, however, they found a way to win down the stretch after it seemed like they were a lock to play in the NIT. A win over Michigan St and a loss to Wisconsin on a buzzer beater taught this team that they can win without superstar, Pierre Pierce (Pierce thought it would be a better idea to assault a woman rather than get drafted into the NBA). Anyway, he was kicked off the team and Iowa State transfer Adam Haluska has stepped up large. Cincinnati is always vulnerable this time of year and surely the value is on the puppy here. Of course the Hawkeyes can win this game and should be in a position to do just that. Play: Iowa +1.50 (Risking 1.5 units) Bracket pick: Iowa<o
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></o>Washington –20½ over Montana @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (3:00 PM)<o
></o>Say hello to the greatest show on parkay, or should we say the fastest. Enter the Huskies, one of the best teams in the land and a definite threat to win it all. The Huskies led the nation with an average of 86 points per game.The Huskies, to be sure, have their share of glamour. The high-wire act of Nate Robinson, the sweet-shooting of Tre Simmons, a fast-paced offense that piles up points as quickly as Jose Canseco rats out players. For a small team they also rebound large. In winning the Pac-10 tournament, the Huskies out-rebounded Arizona State (which featured the conference's leading rebounder, Ike Diogu), Stanford (which had led the Pac-10 in rebounding four of the past five seasons) and Arizona (which featured 6-foot-11 Channing Frye and 6-10 Ivan Radenovic) by a combined 129-94. What makes that even more remarkable is that the Huskies don’t have a single player over 6’8”. They’ll outwork you, outscore you and out-rebound you. This team has few weaknesses and their work ethic and desire is perhaps their greatest asset. The Huskies are our choice to win it all but for now we’ll just call them to win this one by 30 or more. Play Washington –20½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Washington<o
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></o>Pacific +4 over Pittsburgh @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (12:40 PM)<o
></o>The Panthers struggled all year against quality opponents and we see the Tigers as a quality team, both offensively and defensively.. The Tigers went 18-0 in conference play and have the best record in the land since January of 04. The Tigers are in the top 10 nationally in field goal shooting (50.3 percent as a team) and shoot a crisp 38 percent from 3-point range. No one's going to pencil in the Tigers for the Final Four on their tournament pool bracket, but this is not a team anyone wants to face in the opening round, or the second. Certainly not the Panthers, who’s second half collapse is not very inspiring. This Panther squad lacks both rhythm and scoring. Chevon Troutman has been the most reliable Panther this season but if he doesn’t have a huge game the Panthers chances of losing are great. In fact, even if he does have a big game the Panthers chances of losing are still great. We’re just not down with Pitt, they lack the all-important intensity and toughness and Pacific flat out wants it more. It says here they’ll get it. Play: Pacific +4 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: Pacific<o
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></o>LSU -3 over Alabama Birhingham @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho (9:40 PM)<o
></o>Any team that loses to a horrible East Carolina team when the chips were down is a team we want no part of. The Blazers don’t shoot well at all, they don’t rebound well and they rely on a silly full court pressure defense that’s supposed to catch teams off guard. Yeah, sure. That may have worked last year in an upset over Kentucky but it’s not going to work well this year. Not against this LSU team. The Tigers are extremely talented and possess one of the best starting five in the land. That bodes well here because if your guards can play, and LSU’s can, beating the full court press is a cinch. Don’t be surprised to see the Tigers build a big lead early and than watch the Blazers swith gears to something they know nothing about. The Tigers are bigger, better and only a total collapse against this weak Blazer team will prevent them from advancing. We don’t see that happening and we’re calling this one of the better wagers in the opening round. Play: LSU –3 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: LSU<o
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></o>Utah St +5 over Arizona @ Taco Bell Arena in Boise Idaho (7:20 PM)<o
></o>When it comes to shooting the rock there’s the Wildcats Salim Stoudamire and than there’s everyone else. This guy is the best shooter in the nation and it’s not even close. Arizona looked unbeatable at times this year and at other times they looked very ordinary. Still, a 15-3 record in the tough PAC-10 can’t be overlooked and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Wildcats go very deep, perhaps even to the final four. That being said, the Aggies are a determined bunch that plays a rock solid defense and this is not the best match-up for the “never saw a shot they didn’t like” Wildcats. If the Wildcats are hot they’ll win this game but there’s a danger of them being cold and with that in mind this relentless Aggie team has a legitimate shot to pull off the upset. Utah St. is one of those teams that are highly unpredictable. They win when their supposed to lose and lose when their supposed to win. The Aggies aren’t careless with the ball and when they get beat they get beat honestly. They won’t beat themselves and that makes them dangerous. Talent wise we’ll have to go with Arizona and we’re calling this one of the toughest first round games to predict. Play: Utah St. +5 (No bets) Bracket pick: Arizona<o
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></o>UTEP +3 over Utah @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (3:05 PM)<o
></o>Utah was by far the best team in what proved to be an average Mountain West Conference. The Utes at one point won 18 straight, including their first 11 league games before falling at New Mexico. Utah also impressed in close losses to Washington (78-71) and at Arizona (67-62). Still, the Miners finished just 2 games behind the Utes and anytime a team puts a dynamic duo on the floor like Rivera and Thomas, possibilities exist. The key to this game for the Miners is limiting the touches for Andrew Bogut, one of the nations best players, bar none. Furthermore, we’re always leery of teams that lack the all-important “intangibles” and the Utes lack it sorely. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it’s worth repeating that this group of Utes is about the most nonchalant bunch that we’ve ever seen. That make them ripe to get upset and we believe that Utah will not last long in this event. They may get by here but don’t bet on it. Play: UTEP +3 (No bets) Bracket pick: UTEP
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>Niagara +12½ over Oklahoma @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (12:45 PM)<o></o>The Sooners ended the regular season with a spectacular rush, winning six straight for a share of the Big 12 title and the No. 1 seed in the league tournament. They were upset by Texas Tech in the Big 12 semifinals but remain a formidable NCAA team. With two athletic and effective big men (Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout), a variety of productive wing players (Terrell Everett, Lawrence McKenzie, Jaison Williams, David Godbold) and a feisty little point guard (5-7 Drew Lavender), Oklahoma has the necessary parts. Quick, athletic and now confident as any team in the country, Oklahoma is battle-tested in the Big 12 and could be in for a long, long run. The Purple Eagles are called an explosive bunch that can score with the best of them. However, when you’re playing teams like Sienna, Iona, and Marist, you’re supposed to score. Niagara comes out of the same conference that Manhattan came out of last year and Manhattan pulled off a couple of upsets. In fact, they didn’t look a bit out of place. The Sooners had better be prepared or the same fate may be waiting for them. Watch for the Purple Eagles big three of Cruz, Brooks and Mendez and watch Niagara give the Sooners a big time scare. Play: Niagara +12½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Oklahoma
UCLA +3½ over Texas Tech @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (9:45 PM)<o
></o>Like the way Bobby Knight has this Red Raider team playing at the moment and it seems that everyone else agrees with that too. That’s a red flag in itself and while the Bruins have played terrible on many nights they’ve also looked awfully good too. The Bruins were clearly a bubble team about 10 days ago but a late run capped off by a nice win over the Irish pushed them over the top. Some will argue that just getting here is a big step for UCLA with three freshman starters but we’ve seen far too often what happens when a young teams gets some confidence. The Bruins are a dangerous bunch at the moment and it’s a must that Dijon Thompson steps up big. He’s certainly capable and so is UCLA. Tech likes an up-tempo style and that style has never faired well in this dance and perhaps that’s one of the reasons Knight’s teams haven’t made it to the Sweet Sixteen since 94. They likely won’t make it happen here because they’re weak on the defensive boards and can easily get pushed around. Tech is ripe for the pickings. Play: UCLA +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Bracket pick: UCLA <o
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></o>Winthrop +13½ over Gonzaga @ Mckale Center in Tucson, Arizona (7:25 PM)<o
></o>Don’t count this little known Eagles team out. If there’s a huge upset in the first round this could be it. The Eagles come into the NCAAs having rolled to one of the nation's gaudiest records, finishing 27-5 after winning their last 18 games. Winthrop ripped through the Big South conference regular season and didn't slow down in the tournament, winning all three games by double digits. Winthrop also won at Providence (pre-Friars collapse) and also played at Arkansas, South Carolina and Oregon during the non-conference season. Now, don’t get us wrong, they played a bunch of nobody’s but they destroyed those nobodies in rather impressive fashion and all the Zags have to do is take this team lightly and it could get awfully scary. You see, the Zags are long past the “just happy to be here” stage and many experts feel this team can make some serious noise this year. Problem is, if we listened to the experts we’d all be broke. This line opened at 11 and has been bet up to 13½ and we’re playing the fade here, an angle that cashes in more times than not. Remember, the Zags lost three starters from a year ago and while they had a great year, too much is expected of them this year and that’s usually spells trouble in round one. Not saying that the Eagles will win but we’re also not willing to spot this squad 13½ points and thus, we’ll watch this one with great interest. Play Winthrop +13½ (No bets) Bracket pick: Gonzaga</o
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