Euro 2004

[JackDee]

Good to see the forum thriving come Euro 2004 time with some very interesting analysis posts from regulars and newcomers and some very worthwhile bets suggestions.

A couple of days ago my pet kitten died at the age of four weeks, i am a big cat lover and i d grown quite attached to the little toddler, i did most things i could to save her, but in the end i had to be reduced to a bystander watching her perish in slow, painful death in a matter of hours. As you can gather i have very little interest or will right now for betting or analysis, or for that matter anything else, so ll just post the bets i ve placed so far, and hopefully in a few days when i get it together i ll join full force in the forum's efforts for a profitable euro.

Portugal and Spain to both qualify at 1.9 premierbet. biggest one, about triple my normal stake.

Group C Winner Italy 1.85 another big bet this one, odds are highly overlayed, at betfair.
Group B Winner France 1.78 at Betfair (value bet)

Group D winner Czechs at 2.8 betfair. at almost 3/1 odds for the czechs to overcome the mediocre germans and problematic dutch this is a good bet albeit small.

Portugal - Greece (-1) at 1.98 Bet365.

Sweden - Denmark, Sweden at 1.92 Ladbrokes. (line way off)

Spain - Russia 1.75 interwetten (at least a few days ago, check betfair if they got anything similar)

Portugal in the final four 2.28 betfair, when no host country in the history of euros has failed to qualify for the semis this is surely a good bet.

I am also on some props chriscol in on too.

Croatia over Greece @ 1.82
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40

and some change on italy and spain to win the trophy.

bol. Jack.

 

[deutscher]

Jack -

Sorry to hear of your loss - for those of us with loved family members from the animal world (dogs in my case), it's a death in the family - enough said.

I have a question for you, or any others who care to add input:

It seems that Croatia is being undervalued by the bookies, while most posts and other conversations I have had (and I include my own opinion) value them as the best long shot to surprise. I am beginning to back off a little, as I see no great difference between their quality and Bulgaria's.

Along those same lines, Bulgaria gets no respect. I am very leery of betting against them, as I see that group, with the exception of Italy, wide open. I still am not convinced that Sweden are the clear second choice.

In other words, I am beginning to move towards the middle road for those two teams, becoming less high on Croatia, and giving more respect to Bulgaria.

Any comments?

 

[JackDee]

i am betting 5% of my bankroll (my normal bet is around 1.5%) on the Portuguese to rebound and win the unremarkable russians. 1.67 at betfair widely available, pinnacle (being the sharp folk they are) have got it at 1.53, which is about par with my own estimations of about 1.5 odds for the euro hosts to have a crowd pleasing win, watch out for that extra determination from the portuguese players, deco in and rui costa out, huge fan support, and critical ref. backing.

At 1.67 it's a gift.

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

My condolences Jack.

 

[JackDee]

thanks a lot man, good thing the euro's around to keep my mind busy.

although not a draw bettor i ll take a chance here with the draw bet for the france v. england game, i am betting it for 3.25 at them bums over at betandwin, i have an account over there and bet every couple of months or more in some of their notorious off lines, of course they are also notorious for cutting limits to winning punters to some ridiculous amounts of say 20-40 euros or less, but enough with these crooks, my profile over there is that of a seldom betting square and i ll take good advantage of it.

There are a multitude of reasons why the draw should be the favourite here, both teams are coming from a long tiring season, and what with the very hot portuguese weather and the high humidity, the unders are hugely favoured, as witnessed so far by the games themselves and as indicated by bookmakers' odds. When the unders are favoured the draw has always got more chances. Moreover both teams have got something like 11 players playing in the epl, and most playing in the same teams even, they know each other inside out, not much of a margin for a surprise here, i mean how much of a surprise factor can henry be for andy cole, cole knows henry's dribbles and style of play like his second nature. Besides the tiredness factor affecting the unders here, it also tends to level out team differences, as shown in the 89th minimal victory of france over ukraine with 0-1 in their final friendly game. Everything points to the draw here, of course it's a risky bet compared with the handicap, but i like the odds i got, and i am betting it.

 

[JackDee]

btw, bet365 and centrebet have it at 3.2, both good, reputable bookmakers, moreso centrebet, which of course posit a lot of value too.

 

[JackDee]

fvcki, i was about to celebrate my win in the 91st minute, and on the 92nd these english bums crap it up, btw, great vertical pass from steven gerard, for a whole 90 minutes no french player hadn't managed to pass to henry one on one with the goalie...but steven gerard was there and he did, kudos, what a wanker.

Well, at least it seems i was right on the draw being the most possible result.

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

Liverpool sucks

 

[joethor]

jack, any thoughts on italy/denmark?

 

[JackDee]

well it's already started, sorry i missed your post ag, the danish are putting in some good effort, of course class lays with italy, but the danish are tough to crack and the heat and tiredness factor even things out. I ve already taken italy as group winners so i layed off this one.

 

[JackDee]

"At 1.67 it's a gift."

Accordingly the portugal line moved to an average of 1.55.

 

[JackDee]

I am taking a parley for two units:

Czechs to win outright at 1.44
and Holland pk at 1.65.

for 2 units.

at gamebookers (probably canbet will have a better price for the handicap but their damn site wont work at the moment)

I am also on the Czechs under for 1 unit at pinnacle at 1.87.

And the bookings over 9 at 1.67 at betfair.

 

[JackDee]

Here's how i am doing in this euro so far.

Czechs to win outright at 1.44, Holland pk at 1.65, for 3% of bankroll.
Won. +1.32%
Czechs under at 1.87, for 1.5%.
Loss. -1.5%
Bookings over 9 at 1.67.
Loss -0.5%
France-England Draw at 3.2 for 0.75%
Loss -0.75%
Portugal over Russia at 1.67 for 5%
Won +3.35%
Portugal and Spain to both qualify at 1.9 for 3.5%
Pending, probably and hopefully a loss (greeks go though.)
Group C Winner Italy 1.85 for 3%.
Pending.
Group B Winner France 1.78 for 3%.
Pending.
Group D winner Czechs at 2.8 for 2.5%
Pending.
Portugal - Greece (-1) at 1.98 Bet365 for 1.5%
Loss -1.5%.
Sweden - Denmark, Sweden at 1.92 for 1.5%
Pending.
Spain - Russia 1.75 for 1.5%
Won +1.125%
Portugal in the final four 2.28 for 0.75%
Pending.
Croatia over Greece @ 1.82 for 1%
Pending.
Bulgaria NOT to qualify @ 1.40 for 2.25%
Pending.

Mixed results +1.545 3-4 (props included), a few of the pending bets, such as the french and czechs looking good, others such as portugal and italy looking not that good. Portugal was a very welcome gift yesterday, overshadowed by yet another tremendous perfomance (according to our history and team strength obviously) and a breathtaking goal from a superb long range cross field pass by technical footballer extraordinaire Tsiartas, and an excellent finish from young Bremen striker Aggelos Charisteas, and the spanish find their nemesis in us greeks once more.

 

[JackDee]

England - the Swiss.

Two of my least favourite teams.

Nice little prop at betfair.

Hakan Yakin over shaved fish D. Beckham, supremacy according to the optra index. Some presumably british bloke matched my 3.25 bet on Yakin for 0.5% of bankroll, obviously the brits are going to have the lions share of attacks, and davie is supposedly the captain (what sort of captain though misses the most crucial penalti against former teamate bartez, and is ridiculed and fooled by bartez actually.) and surely a lot of passes will go by him, BUT Davie is playing like crap and is out or form, plenty more players that can share his job today in the english squad, yakin after his recovery from the injury he suffered is still a very talented player and will get enough of the swiss passing and shooting, and which is more important at 3.25, around 30% chances, this bet posits a lot of value imo.

I am also taking 13 or more corners, risky call this one, both should so to speak "corner" a lot, i ve capped, well, actually guessestimated this one at around 2.5 so betfair's 3.25 is good enough for me for 0.75%.

Also at betfair 3-4 yellow cards at 3.25 for 0.75 units, i can't see why the 5 yellow and over should be favoured at 1.7, this is of course no friendly but neither the swiss nor the english are card prone, the ref. is a very conservative one, and i am sure he's gotten enough advice by the organisers to avoid the swiss croatia card fiasco, what a parody, courtesy of a portuguese ref. obviously very pissed off with this home team's performances.

A good losing "mate" of mine is betting on my behalf (in exchange for a share of the profits) over at those sorry limit cutting bums at betandwin on a couple more of corner props, england more than 5 corners overall at 1.4 for 3% (i know, i know high stakes here but i ve estimated this one at 1.2 and i like my edge) and over 5 corners second half for both teams at 1.8 for 1.5%. Thats a lot of money on them corners, but i am very confident, for reasons it would take a number of paragraphs to mention here.

I ll also take premierbet's 1.5 for england for 3% (double units), they should get the job done here, and 1.5 is decent.

I ll also be on both england and france -1 at combined odds of 3.4 for 1.5 units, and i ll be looking at some props for the french game

So, all in all around 11% of the bankroll spread between the two games so far, and looking good.

bol. jack.

p.s. optra index and online stats for the posh spice beckham bet

www.sportingstatz.com/betfair/

Goal= 50 pts
Own goal= -30 pts
Shot on target= 15 pts
Shot off target (including Blocked Shots)= 5 pts
Successful pass (In opposition half)= 2 pts
Assist (Pass leading directly to a goal)= 30 pts
Free kick won= 3 pts
Free kick conceded (Including offsides)= -3 pts
1st Yellow card= -10 pts
2nd Yellow card= -15 pts (Equivalent to one Red card)
Red card= -25 pts

 

[JackDee]

the english bums are playing like crap, they cant be even arsed to do one single fvcking proper attack. Twats.

 

[JackDee]

this game has been a torture to watch, the brits are horrible beyond words, if they go on with such performances they get a good ass whooping real soon, and almost all my bets are going against me, in a game that, i was right to assume, in no way warranted more than 4 bookings, a swiss bum comes in as a substitution in the second half and in a matter of five minutes manages to get booked twice and singlehandedly fvck up my boookings bet, the swiss have their fair share of corners 5 so far, yet the british manage a staggering 0 corners, by far the worst in the tournament. My yakin bet looks good but i am waiting for the optra indexes for their results, and of course the brits covered for my double parley, and won straight up...

 

[JackDee]

13 corners or more 0.75% at 3.25
Loss -0.75%
3-4 yellow cards 0.75% at 3.25.
Loss -0.75%
BetandWin Corner props 4.5%
Loss -4.5%
England 3% at 1.5.
Won +1.5%
England-1, France-1 for 2.25% (one and a half units) at 3.4
Pending.
Yakin over Beckham 0.5% at 3.25.
Pending.

-4.5%

Adding some bets for the France game.

I ll on the same betandwin corner props for the same percentages of bankroll. Namely. Over 5 corners for france at 1.4 for 3%, and over 5 corners in the second half at 2 for 1.5%.

 

[jwunderdog]

AM I reading these tiebreakers right? Since England just won 3-0, Croatia will have to beat England to advance, Or beat France by 3 goals(yea right) and tie England and then it would come down to penalty kicks?

 

[Brazil4Worldcup2002]

I like France to claim 1st place at -1. the only problem for them is if they will play spain or greece. Ironically, coming in first could be worse because they may play Spain who may come in second.

 

[JackDee]

if croatia don't get anything out of this game and france win, the french will come first the group, regardless of their result against the swiss, and then croatia will have to beat england if they are to go through second, there are a lot of scenarios some way too improbable. If croatians win france and tie england, they ll definately go through, as they have 5 points, the english will have 4, and the french either, 3, 6 or 4. Penalti kicks only decide the outcome of a knockout game, and a single game only, there are no penalti kicks to decide which team ranks higher in the event of having the same points as another, other criteria apply there (there's just one case where penalti kicks are used which i tell you about lastly), which in order of importance are these (i.e. if criteria one is the same for both or all three teams, the next one applies and so on and so forth) 1. the result when one faced the other (for two teams) 2. the goal difference each has in their in between games (for three or more teams) 3.The team with the better offense in their in between games (three teams or more) 4. their total goal difference, those scored minus those accepted 5. the best overall offence 6. the points each team won in the past euro and world cup qualifying rounds 7. the team with the highest points in fair play (bookings). 8. ultimately there's a draw.

If before the start of their last game both teams have exactly the same points, the same goal difference, and the same goals scored, and those two teams tie after 90 minutes gametime, then none of the above apply, and it comes down to penalties.