ESPN.com - NFL - Take 2: Dolphins vs. JetsFriday, October 29, 2004
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Dolphins and Jets. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Jets have been so difficult to beat this season because they make so
few mistakes. They are the least penalized team in the NFL and they are
tied for the league lead in giveaways. In total, the Jets have a plus-9
turnover differential, which is tied for second best in the NFL.
One of the reasons they make so few mistakes is QB Chad Pennington, who
has completed 69-percent of his passing attempts and has thrown just two
interceptions after six games. The Jets aren't very explosive as an
offensive unit and they do need to start taking more chances vertically to
WR Santana Moss, but their ability to protect the football and chew up
minutes on the game clock not only helps to rest their own defense but
also to wear down the opponents.
Considering the rash of injuries and the overall lack of depth that the
Dolphin defense is dealing with, time of possession will be key in Monday
night's game. If the Jets can continue to play mistake-free football and
do a good job of controlling the clock in this game, Miami's defense
should noticeably wear down in the second half. That's when RB Curtis
Martin could take over.
Making matters worse for the Miami defense is the decision that the team
had to make on Wednesday to place DT Tim Bowens on the injured reserve
list after he re-aggravated his back. The Dolphin run defense is
predicated on the play of its defensive tackles, which are responsible for
taking up space within the two-gap scheme in order to allow undersized MLB
Zach Thomas to chase from sideline-to-sideline without having to sift
through too much traffic. Now, without Bowens and Larry Chester, the
Dolphins simply don't have the size up front with Jeff Zgonina and Bryan
Robinson -- or the depth behind them -- to properly execute that scheme.
You can bet that the Jets will look to exploit this potential weakness on
Monday night with a heavy dose of Martin.
The Jets need WR Justin McCareins to build on last week's breakout
performance of six receptions for 83 yards versus the Patriots. The Jets
are using a lot of three-receiver sets with Moss, McCareins and Wayne
Chrebet, and with Moss drawing a lot of the extra attention from opposing
safeties, McCareins is often left working against man-to-man coverage.
While his opponent this week, RDC Sam Madison, certainly has the
experience and savvy to keep him in check, McCareins has the advantage
when it comes to size and speed. If McCareins can utilize those advantages
to provide a couple of big plays in the vertical passing game it would be
a huge boost to a Jets' offense that has lacked a big-play element much of
this season.
The one area of improvement that has been noticeable on film regarding the
Dolphins' offense is the play of its line. With so much turnover and
inexperience to begin the season, the Dolphin offensive line was
consistently making assignment errors as a result of confusion. Now that
the unit has had time to play together and has begun to jell, it is making
fewer and fewer mistakes each week. The challenge this week will be to
continue to improve against a Jets' defensive front that can be confusing
because of the hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme it runs. With DE/OLB John Abraham
dropping in coverage on some plays and rushing the passer on the other,
the play of the left side of the Dolphins offensive line (OT Damion
McIntosh and OG Jeno James) will be especially critical.
In order to prevent its defense from having to stay on the field entirely
too long on Monday night, the Dolphins must establish a strong running
attack in this game. With the offensive line making strides and with RB's
Sammy Morris and Travis Minor finally both healthy at the same time, the
Dolphins have a chance to do so. Morris was hobbled by a sprained ankle in
the first five games of the season but has taken over as the primary
load-carrier and has rushed for 174 yards on 64 carries in the team's last
two games. Morris isn't overly explosive and he doesn't make many
defenders miss, but he is a tough runner that can wear a defense down and
he also does a great job of protecting the football. With Morris carrying
the load, a healthy Minor is back at his familiar role as a backup and
third down back. Minor provides a good change of pace as a quicker back
than Morris, and he also is an asset in the passing game as a blocker and
a receiver.
With teams spending a lot of double-team attention on RDE/OLB John
Abraham, LDE Shaun Ellis is getting a lot of room to operate versus
typically slower right tackles. Ellis has been exploiting those matchups
most of the season and he's coming off another productive game against the
Patriots in which he recorded 1.5 sacks against ROT Russ Hochstein. The
same should be the case this week, as Ellis will have a big advantage over
starting ROT John St. Clair, who lacks the feet and change of direction
skills to handle Ellis one-on-one.
Special Teams
Neither team has a significant edge on special teams. In terms of
personnel in the kicking game, both teams are solid. Jets' PT Toby Gowin
doesn't have the strongest leg but he has been consistent and has done a
good job with his hang-time, which has allowed the cover units to get in
position downfield. Miami PT Matt Turk has also been solid and, in all
reality, there isn't much of a difference between the two. As far as the
placekicking comparison, the Jets' Doug Brien doesn't have the leg that
Miami's Olindo Mare possesses, but Brien has been more consistent and
accurate from inside the 40-yard line.
Miami has received surprisingly strong results from rookie RS Wes Welker
but the Jets still have the advantage in the return game because of the
potential explosiveness and greater experience that Moss provides. Moss
has been especially strong on punt returns this season, averaging 10 yards
per attempt. He could give way to LaMont Jordan on kickoff returns. Jordan
isn't as much of a threat but he's still more experienced than Welker.
Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 10
Scouts Inc.
Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this
week's matchup between the Dolphins and Jets. Now they're back with a
second look.
The Jets have been so difficult to beat this season because they make so
few mistakes. They are the least penalized team in the NFL and they are
tied for the league lead in giveaways. In total, the Jets have a plus-9
turnover differential, which is tied for second best in the NFL.
One of the reasons they make so few mistakes is QB Chad Pennington, who
has completed 69-percent of his passing attempts and has thrown just two
interceptions after six games. The Jets aren't very explosive as an
offensive unit and they do need to start taking more chances vertically to
WR Santana Moss, but their ability to protect the football and chew up
minutes on the game clock not only helps to rest their own defense but
also to wear down the opponents.
Considering the rash of injuries and the overall lack of depth that the
Dolphin defense is dealing with, time of possession will be key in Monday
night's game. If the Jets can continue to play mistake-free football and
do a good job of controlling the clock in this game, Miami's defense
should noticeably wear down in the second half. That's when RB Curtis
Martin could take over.
Making matters worse for the Miami defense is the decision that the team
had to make on Wednesday to place DT Tim Bowens on the injured reserve
list after he re-aggravated his back. The Dolphin run defense is
predicated on the play of its defensive tackles, which are responsible for
taking up space within the two-gap scheme in order to allow undersized MLB
Zach Thomas to chase from sideline-to-sideline without having to sift
through too much traffic. Now, without Bowens and Larry Chester, the
Dolphins simply don't have the size up front with Jeff Zgonina and Bryan
Robinson -- or the depth behind them -- to properly execute that scheme.
You can bet that the Jets will look to exploit this potential weakness on
Monday night with a heavy dose of Martin.
The Jets need WR Justin McCareins to build on last week's breakout
performance of six receptions for 83 yards versus the Patriots. The Jets
are using a lot of three-receiver sets with Moss, McCareins and Wayne
Chrebet, and with Moss drawing a lot of the extra attention from opposing
safeties, McCareins is often left working against man-to-man coverage.
While his opponent this week, RDC Sam Madison, certainly has the
experience and savvy to keep him in check, McCareins has the advantage
when it comes to size and speed. If McCareins can utilize those advantages
to provide a couple of big plays in the vertical passing game it would be
a huge boost to a Jets' offense that has lacked a big-play element much of
this season.
The one area of improvement that has been noticeable on film regarding the
Dolphins' offense is the play of its line. With so much turnover and
inexperience to begin the season, the Dolphin offensive line was
consistently making assignment errors as a result of confusion. Now that
the unit has had time to play together and has begun to jell, it is making
fewer and fewer mistakes each week. The challenge this week will be to
continue to improve against a Jets' defensive front that can be confusing
because of the hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme it runs. With DE/OLB John Abraham
dropping in coverage on some plays and rushing the passer on the other,
the play of the left side of the Dolphins offensive line (OT Damion
McIntosh and OG Jeno James) will be especially critical.
In order to prevent its defense from having to stay on the field entirely
too long on Monday night, the Dolphins must establish a strong running
attack in this game. With the offensive line making strides and with RB's
Sammy Morris and Travis Minor finally both healthy at the same time, the
Dolphins have a chance to do so. Morris was hobbled by a sprained ankle in
the first five games of the season but has taken over as the primary
load-carrier and has rushed for 174 yards on 64 carries in the team's last
two games. Morris isn't overly explosive and he doesn't make many
defenders miss, but he is a tough runner that can wear a defense down and
he also does a great job of protecting the football. With Morris carrying
the load, a healthy Minor is back at his familiar role as a backup and
third down back. Minor provides a good change of pace as a quicker back
than Morris, and he also is an asset in the passing game as a blocker and
a receiver.
With teams spending a lot of double-team attention on RDE/OLB John
Abraham, LDE Shaun Ellis is getting a lot of room to operate versus
typically slower right tackles. Ellis has been exploiting those matchups
most of the season and he's coming off another productive game against the
Patriots in which he recorded 1.5 sacks against ROT Russ Hochstein. The
same should be the case this week, as Ellis will have a big advantage over
starting ROT John St. Clair, who lacks the feet and change of direction
skills to handle Ellis one-on-one.
Special Teams
Neither team has a significant edge on special teams. In terms of
personnel in the kicking game, both teams are solid. Jets' PT Toby Gowin
doesn't have the strongest leg but he has been consistent and has done a
good job with his hang-time, which has allowed the cover units to get in
position downfield. Miami PT Matt Turk has also been solid and, in all
reality, there isn't much of a difference between the two. As far as the
placekicking comparison, the Jets' Doug Brien doesn't have the leg that
Miami's Olindo Mare possesses, but Brien has been more consistent and
accurate from inside the 40-yard line.
Miami has received surprisingly strong results from rookie RS Wes Welker
but the Jets still have the advantage in the return game because of the
potential explosiveness and greater experience that Moss provides. Moss
has been especially strong on punt returns this season, averaging 10 yards
per attempt. He could give way to LaMont Jordan on kickoff returns. Jordan
isn't as much of a threat but he's still more experienced than Welker.
Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 10
