The college football season is nearly upon usand we enter year two of the new era of college football, inclusive of playoffs. I’m in the minority, but I like the four team model and don’t need tosee the seventh, eighth best teams have an opportunity to play for a title. The schedule eliminates those teams in my opinion and letting them have a second crack after failing is pointless.
Last year I scrapped together a small profit, brining my five year mark at the RX to two really strong seasons and three with minimal profits in college. Hopefully, I can outperform 2014 and land my third really strong season in six.
Five year (2010-2014) posted CFB record: 465-394, 54.1%, +34.32, ROI: +4.3%
As previously discussed, I tend to use a few approaches to my selections;Value, perception, spot/situation and experience.
The value plays are generally where I find value between my developed linecompared to the actual line.
Perception plays are generally going against certain perceptions, i.e.,dominant teams with inflated lines, undervalued teams with inflated lines,previous season ATS busters I expect to regress or previous season ATSstruggles whom I expect to improve.
Spot/situational plays tend to deal with unfavorable scheduling situations,excessive road trips/travel or a negative/positive feel to a particular teamsschedule “flow”.
Experience plays are based on my own experience with certain teams. I keep meticulous records and make a selection on all games to track my tendencies with certain teams and conferences. I have found over the years I have excellent success with certain teams and have done a solid job grading how they change year over year, recruiting evaluation, bench personnel, etc. On theother hand, there are certain teams I do a terrible job of tracking/grading, which leads to believe somewhere analysis of said team is flawed.
Ideally, I'm looking for games that cross some combination of these factors.
My analysis suggests we should be in for a crazy season. I expect the big four conferences to fail to produce an unbeaten, but I think a few are going to be very closeand pick up their first losses rather late in the season.
For me, it starts and ends in the trenches, so I’m always looking for sides whocan dominate the line of scrimmage. This was the reason behind the SEC’s dominance for years and the reason many teams had stellar seasons and just fellshort. Your Ohio State’s, Texas’s, Oregon’s, Notre Dame’s, Oklahoma’s, etc. fell short due to inferior line play on both sides of the ball over the years they came ever so close to capturing the top prize. See Ohio State’s obliteration of Oregon in the trenches last season, to me, this is where the big games are won or lost.
I really think we could be looking at least three new playoff participants, if not all four. I don’t see any way the SEC champion has less than two losses, but I do think we may get a one loss team out of the B1G, Pac 12 and possibly ACC. Unfortunately for Big 12 fans, I expect them to be on the outside looking in again. The resurgence of the Oklahoma’s should create a more difficult road map for Baylor and TCU, leaving no one loss sides to speak of. In typical fashion for me, my projections are widely different from the media outlets and I expect to see some major surprises with some familiar faces showing up at the end, some showing back up after several years away and some out of the blue. Nothing is rarely what it seems in the crazy world of college football, as much as the ESPN’s of the world would try to lead you to believe.
I’ll try to get some high level thoughts down on each conference leading into the season. As always, much respect to the posters who keep this forum going year round, you know who you are. For the second off-season in a row I haven’t been around as much as I would like of late with other responsibilities eating away at my time, but I was certainly keeping up on the excellent knowledge being dropped on here the last few months. The work is done, the hours committed and the hardest part is over.
Best of luck this season and may you have more bounces go your way than against and may your team play with heart, aggression and discipline.
Continued success.
Last year I scrapped together a small profit, brining my five year mark at the RX to two really strong seasons and three with minimal profits in college. Hopefully, I can outperform 2014 and land my third really strong season in six.
Five year (2010-2014) posted CFB record: 465-394, 54.1%, +34.32, ROI: +4.3%
As previously discussed, I tend to use a few approaches to my selections;Value, perception, spot/situation and experience.
The value plays are generally where I find value between my developed linecompared to the actual line.
Perception plays are generally going against certain perceptions, i.e.,dominant teams with inflated lines, undervalued teams with inflated lines,previous season ATS busters I expect to regress or previous season ATSstruggles whom I expect to improve.
Spot/situational plays tend to deal with unfavorable scheduling situations,excessive road trips/travel or a negative/positive feel to a particular teamsschedule “flow”.
Experience plays are based on my own experience with certain teams. I keep meticulous records and make a selection on all games to track my tendencies with certain teams and conferences. I have found over the years I have excellent success with certain teams and have done a solid job grading how they change year over year, recruiting evaluation, bench personnel, etc. On theother hand, there are certain teams I do a terrible job of tracking/grading, which leads to believe somewhere analysis of said team is flawed.
Ideally, I'm looking for games that cross some combination of these factors.
My analysis suggests we should be in for a crazy season. I expect the big four conferences to fail to produce an unbeaten, but I think a few are going to be very closeand pick up their first losses rather late in the season.
For me, it starts and ends in the trenches, so I’m always looking for sides whocan dominate the line of scrimmage. This was the reason behind the SEC’s dominance for years and the reason many teams had stellar seasons and just fellshort. Your Ohio State’s, Texas’s, Oregon’s, Notre Dame’s, Oklahoma’s, etc. fell short due to inferior line play on both sides of the ball over the years they came ever so close to capturing the top prize. See Ohio State’s obliteration of Oregon in the trenches last season, to me, this is where the big games are won or lost.
I really think we could be looking at least three new playoff participants, if not all four. I don’t see any way the SEC champion has less than two losses, but I do think we may get a one loss team out of the B1G, Pac 12 and possibly ACC. Unfortunately for Big 12 fans, I expect them to be on the outside looking in again. The resurgence of the Oklahoma’s should create a more difficult road map for Baylor and TCU, leaving no one loss sides to speak of. In typical fashion for me, my projections are widely different from the media outlets and I expect to see some major surprises with some familiar faces showing up at the end, some showing back up after several years away and some out of the blue. Nothing is rarely what it seems in the crazy world of college football, as much as the ESPN’s of the world would try to lead you to believe.
I’ll try to get some high level thoughts down on each conference leading into the season. As always, much respect to the posters who keep this forum going year round, you know who you are. For the second off-season in a row I haven’t been around as much as I would like of late with other responsibilities eating away at my time, but I was certainly keeping up on the excellent knowledge being dropped on here the last few months. The work is done, the hours committed and the hardest part is over.
Best of luck this season and may you have more bounces go your way than against and may your team play with heart, aggression and discipline.
Continued success.
