ERockMoney 2015-2016 NHL Outlook

[ERockMoney]

First posted plays of the season:

Toronto +179 RegulationOnly

The Maple Leafs are undervalued IMO and rate as a slightly better than average side across a few key areas/statistics I value, while the Canucks are slightly to moderately below average in those same areas. The Leafs are playing much better hockey of late and are still being dismissed by theb etting public, Reimer has been quite impressive recently sporting a save percentage greater than .940 this month and has faced some stiff offensive opposition. Miller is on the other end of the spectrum faltering with a save percentage of less than .870 during the same time frame against weaker offensive opponents.

Both sides struggle on the PP and are rather pedestrian on the PK. Toronto lacks the offensive firepower Vancouver has, but has a decided edge in net, behind the bench and my perception, which may not be reality, is the Leafs are a more disciplined/focus side.

Buffalo +154 RegulationOnly

Much like Toronto, and possibly more so, the Sabres are undervalued and dismissed by the betting public. The Sharks are simply overvalued IMO and continue to be so despite their struggles of late. They are horrid on specialty teams and face a Buffalo PP that is gaining some steam. In addition, Jones has been a weakness in net with a .874 save percentage of late. TheSharks, like Buffalo, do nice job of getting shots on net and limited shots against, but Jones declining play eliminates any gains the Sharks hope to achieve on this front. Stalock could be in net tonight, unconfirmed at this point, but there isn’t much difference in my analysis either way.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Some NHL DFS information.....

I'm an avid DFS player for several sports and have been able to show an ROI that I've never been able to achieve gambling, even during my best runs.

In GPP, some nice, relatively cheaper stacks that are likely to have mininal ownership:

BUF2: McGinn, Ennis and Eichel can be had for $15,300 or 27.8% of the cap; throw in an undervalued Ristolainen for a total of $20,100 or 36.5%
AZ1: Reider, Duclair and Hanzal at $14,900 / 27.1%; add X for a total of $20,800 / 37.8%
TOR1: Van Riemsdyk, Komarov and Kadri at $17,200 or 31.3%; add X for a total of $21,900 / 39.8%
MIN1: Zucker, Niederreiter and Koivu at $15,400 or 28.0%; add Suter for a total of $19,700 / 35.8%
WPG2: Perreault, Ehlers and Scheifele at $14,900 or 27.1%
NJ1: Cammalleri, Stempniak and Henrique at $14,600 or 26.5%
DET1: Abdelkader, Datsyuk and Zetterberg are still underpriced at $18,600 or 33.8%

I really like ther Buffalo, Winnipeg. Arizona and Detroit stacks and will own a piece of all.

Minnesota is tough with +/- facotored in facing offensive juggernaut Dallas, but the Stars leave a lot to be desired defensively and the top guns for the Stars have been on the ice for an increasing amount of goals agianst of late.

I like Toronto tonight, but they are a touch more pricey that some other options, but should be minimally owned. New Jersey has been a go to for me, but I'm not quite sure about tonight, but they could be option if you want to go expensive elsewhere.

In net, Luongo at 8.2K, Reimer at 7.4Km and Hutchinson at 7.7K are rather attractive. Rask could be worth a look at 8.0K, but I'll likely pass there.

Cash:

I've been regularly fading buying Dallas and will likely do so again this evening, may sprinkle at little in somewhere to protect against a major outburst. I'm not too high on Montreal, but I'm not sold on Berra or the Avalanche, so some Pacioretty, Plekanec and Gallagher is worth a look, especially with a slate where you will have a ton of Dallas, Vancouver, Tampa Bay, Los Angelas, Pittsburgh, Nashville and San Jose, as the masses continue to fade New Jersey, Buffalo and Toronto while buying Tampa and Nashville no matter how many times they burn them.

I'm also looking at the Blues, as a quick glance across forum world and major media outlets shows a ton of love on the Hawks, Panarin and Anisimov still underpriced and playing with Kane, their recent shootout with St. Louis and the percetion they are still an elite side. This may be one of the few time buying into St. Louis top line will be contrarian. They will be heavily owned, but I'll likely have a piece of Lucic, Carter and Toffoli.

In net, I'm liking Mrazek, Schneider and Quick if you are going to spend a bit more. Many would question this approach as two of the three are underdogs, but I think Detroit and New Jersey have great chances at the win and should see a lot of action.

Best of luck.

 

[ERockMoney]

1-1, +0.790

I'm on the road, so I'll keep it short...

Buffalo +150 OT included

I can't pass up this price on a side I feel is undervalued, on home ice and facing a suspect defense/goaltender.


Philadelphia +134 OT included

I'm a Flyers fan and this team is a mess, but this seems like one of those Philly games were they play the tough teams tough and unfortunately tend to roll over for the lesser teams.

DFS was a success last time around, save any Winnipeg action. Looking to stack NJ1, BUF1, PHI1 and tie higher priced options in Pittsburgh and Boston.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

Season: -1.210

Columbus +155 OTincluded

Statistically the Predators are scratching the top five in the league in many major categories while Columbus is a hair below average.This line suggests a top tier side heading to one of the worst sides in thel eague. Columbus a bit undervalued in this spot and perception remains low despite their improvement in play of late. The Jackets are on a B2B after being shutout in Ottawa last night while the Predators have won three of four.

NY Islanders +120 RegulationOnly

Price returns this evening, but there are more issues in Montreal at the moment than goaltending. Defensively, the team has regressed and their early season hot start has subsided. Early in the year, the Canadiens were playing over the head, so some regression was expected. Maybe Price rights the ship, but that’s a big ask, especially it early in his return from injury. I’ll back the Islanders here at a favorable price at home due to a bit of an overreaction to Price’s return.

Calgary +190 RegulationOnly

These two met last Sunday in Chicago with the same netminders and the Blackhawks cruised to a 4-1 victory. The Hawks put 41 shots on net and quickly erased a 1-0 deficit with three goals in two minutes within the second period before adding a EN for the 4-1 final. Calgary has been a disaster this season, especially defensively, where I expected better results with talented defenders Giordano, Wideman, Brodie, Hamilton and Russell on the backline. The masses won with Chicago on Sunday and will back them again and them some in this matchup. Darling was sound in the 4-1 victory earlier in the week,but dreadful in earlier starts against Minnesota and Washington with a savepercentage in the .830 range, granted Calgary are offensively deficient, but I’ll take a shot on Darling regressing and Calgary putting forth a better effort at home at this price.

Last time around I dropped both selections getting strong efforts from both the Flyers and Sabres, but those efforts didn’t result in victory. AS for DFS, I was able to clear 2.5 times my at risk for yet another profitable night.

Tonight, I’m liking EDM1 and TOR1 and will look to stackwith NYI1, CLB1 and possibly CGY1. In cash games, Staal/Faulk, Kane/Panarin are intriguing and looking to Halak and Mrazek in net while GPP will likely go Reimer and possible flier on Ramo. Not playing too much tonight and will hope toscrape out some profit.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[Lippman]

On the other side of a couple of them.

GL

 

[ERockMoney]

On the other side of a couple of them.

GL

Lippman,

Thank you for stopping by. I could certainly see how someone would want to back Nashville, Montreal or Chicago last night. I dropped two of three because I had the Flames in regulation. I figured they would get rolled or Darling would lay and egg against a strong Flames effort. Wasn't expecting a close game.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-1.660

Florida +185 Regulation Only

Tough to go against the Rangers off a loss, but their lines are a little inflated based on my analysis. In any sport, once the public starts considering a side as elite prices become inflated and the Rangers fit that mold currently IMO.

Pittsburgh +125 Regulation Only

My numbers suggest the Sharks are overvalued, so I'll continue to fade when appropriate. I will say on I posted plays this strategy has cost me of late.

St. Louis -1.5 +184

I don't play puck lines often, but I like the Blues facing a Wings side off a tough, physical contest with the Kings. St. Louis does have a history of sticking it to me, so we will see.

DFS was another success last night tripling my entry fees. I got beat up on my cash games, but finished in the top 80 of a big gpp and top 150 of another. EDM1 and NYI1 coupled with Reimer and CLB1 and TOR1 with Mrazek led the charge, respectively.

Tonight I'm looking at STL1, WSH1, PIT2, WPG1 as higher priced lines mixed with MIN2, BUF1, AZ1 and FLA1 in GPP. Really like BOS2, OTT1 as well. For cash, Seguin/Sharp, Kane with some lower priced options mixed in, Hoffman/Turris are attractive, Suter D is still massively underpriced ($4.3K), Gostisbehere is wildly underpriced ($3K) following the Streit injury and is getting serious ice time with the top line and on the PP. Fluery is my main choice in net in cash games along with Anderson OTT and Allen. Reimer and Johnson in gpp, looking at Mason and Pavelec as well.

Continued success.

 

[ERockMoney]

-4.660

Rough night the last time out dropping all three and getting flipped by the Sharks yet again.

Buffalo +132 OT Included

I'll back the undervalued Sabres again. The Predators have a nice squad ranking near the top of the league in many statistical categories I believe hold some value. Nashville is off a tough loss to the Rangers where they dominated early, but couldn't solve Mr. Lundqvist. I'm not expecting a bounce back and suspect Nashville may be a bit deflated following the Rangers loss. Hutton will be between the pipes for a rare start and hasn't played particularly well in his other two starts this season. Buffalo is off a tough loss at home to St. Louis and continues to be undervalued by the betting public.

In DFS, I cashed my first ever top twenty finish in a larger tournament thanks to OTT1 and VAN1 a few nights ago. My cash games have been on a little slide, but have been cashing at an unsustainable rate in GPP of late.

Tonight, I'm looking at WSH2, AZ1, MIN2 and BUF1 for cheaper options and coupling with CLB1, BOS1, CHI1 in GPP. Between the pipes, Halak, Dubnyk and Crawford a nice salary savers. In cash games, Ovechkin/Backstrok, Tavares/Okposo, Kane will be featured with nice fill ins from some of the cheaper lines listed above along with NJ1. Looking to Lundqvist, Allen and Holtby for higher priced netminders.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-5.660

Can't seem to buy a win, fortunately I have been able to continue great success in DFS. Hopefully, I can get both on the winning track.

Philadelphia +210 Regulation Only

The Flyers have shown some signs of improvement of late, which could simply be a mirage, but could mean things are turning slightly. Gostisbehere has added an offensive element to the squad from the back line as the youngster has been getting some serious minutes (18+) along with PP time (3+) per game. I'm always concerned when young players bring immediate success that its simply a matter of time before everyone catches up to them and floor falls out for a bit, but he has undeniably been a huge plus for the team thus far. The lower lines have improved from a defensive perspective of late and Mason has a .932 save percentage in his lat five starts. I'll be keeping an eye on this side in the coming weeks because they could be moving into the undervalued category from a betting perspective.

Columbus +170 Regulation Only

Not much here other than Columbus falls into an undervalued position and Pittsburgh overvalued based on my analysis. The betting market is still treating Pittsburgh as if there are a dominant side at the top of the East while they continue to value Columbus as one of the bottom teams in the entire league.

New Jersey +175 Regulation Only

Great spot to back the Devils, Montreal is dancing through the betting publics head after their demolish of what the masses percieved as the best side in the league in the Rangers. Montreal was massively overvalued, settled a bit and I'm expecting them to quickly, if they already haven't, move back into an overvlaued state. Condon is in, Price back out, off a monsterous win versus an overrated New York side. I'll grab to undervalued home side here.

As fr DFS, I was able to grab a top 100 finish on Wednesday and sweep my cash games. My other GPP's were a bust, but overall another very profitable evening. In GPP early slate, I'm eyeing only going with NYR2 and MIN1. In cash, Gostisbehere is a must at only $3K coupling with a red hot Giroux. Suter still massively underpriced at $4.3K, Getzlaf seems to be coming around Zuccarello is still undervalued.

In the late slate, NJ1, BUF1, DET2 are all attractive cheaper lines to be tied into VAN1, CGY1, CLB1 with Smith and Luongo as cheaper options in net. In cash, I'll be grabbing some of DAL1 for protection, Tavares and sprinkling in nice NJ, AZ and BUG cheaper plays. Schnieder is the best higher priced netminder, IMO.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-8.660

Can't seem to get into the win column even when the read on the game is sound, fortunately DFS continues to be a cash cow. Running a bit late today, but I'm on these three:

Columbus +145
Florida +153
Calgary +146

*all three OT included

My numbers suggest Montreal and St. Louis are being overvalued and Columbus continues to be undervalued. As for Calgary, no sound logic other than everyone and their mother backing the mighty Stars. I ran into several people today backing the Stars at several times their normal wager and a couple who never wager hockey tipping their toes in to back the Stars. This just seems like the "stars" are aligning for the bookmaker. It is tough to back the Flames here, but I'll go against the grain.

As for DFS, I'm playing a bit of NJ1, AZ1, FLA1 and tying them into higher priced lines in VAN1, CLB1, CHI1 and OTT1.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-6.670

Edmonton +127 OT included

The Oilers are a bit undervalued here based on my analysis facing a slightly overrated Bruins side at home. At this price, I'll bite. Anyway I slice the numbers the Bruins are a middle of the pack side with the Oilers not far behind in some areas or anywhere from top or bottom of the final third pending your statistical viewpoint. In aggregate, I rate the Oilers in the final third, but jus barely, but the lines the Bruins have been getting suggest they are a top 7-8 side and they simply aren't any longer.

NY Islanders +125 Regulation Only

The Rangers are the most overvalued side in the league and there have been several strong posts on the topic, especially Feddz excellent post on the matter. The Islanders are also overrated IMO, but there prices appear to be dipping a little as the public likely begins to back away. Not the greatest spot to fade the Rangers with the Islanders uninspiring play, but it's likely going to be a cash cow fading the Rangers in the short term.

I had my first horrid DFS night in several weeks. I'm looking to bounce back tonight with cheaper lines in TB2, NYI2 and WPG2 and tying to BOS2, EDM1 and TOR1. Playing relatively small tonight with the short slate.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-6.400

A couple of winning nights in a row and got back on track in DFS triple my investment yesterday. On three this evening:

Ottawa +120 OT included

I'm not bullish on the Senators, but the Hawks keep getting preferential line treatment as if they are still an elite side, which I just don't believe is the case. Tough squad, likely one no one would want to face in the playoffs, but they are not going to steamroll through the regular season racking up massive points. Ottawa off a tough loss to an improving Philly side and at home versus an overpriced Chicago side, I'll bite.

Florida +153 OT included

Nashville had a nice team put together, but they aren't in the top five of the league IMO and maybe not even top seven-eight, but they are consistently priced as such. The Panthers are massively undervalued IMO and are a must play at these prices.

Vancouver +165 Regulation Only

I like backing the Canucks against strong opposition as I feel they play to the level of their competition. Maybe that's just perception and not reality, but it also helps that Dallas has defensive and goaltending deficiencies. The offense is there, sure, but there isn't much else. Vancouver is very erratic, so I'll play regulation only here suspecting either and excellent performance from the home side or a complete due with no middle ground.

In DFS, I love backing the underpriced VAN1 along with FLA1, WSH2, CAR1, MIN1 and OTT1. In cash I'll probably sprinkle in some DAL1 and Kane and company for protection. In net, Dubnyk and Miller provide some cheaper options while Anderson and Luongo are the best higher priced options.

Lienup of the night:

LW: E Staal, Pirri
RW: Lindholm, Jagr
C: Rask, Barkov
D: Faulk, Ekblad
G: Anderson

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-4.670

Things have had a positive turn on the gambling front of late, but I lost consecutive nights in DFS. I usually take off Sunday's in DFS with a focus on the NFL. Two plays today on the NHL slate:

Winnipeg +190 OT included

Once again the Blackhawks are overpriced, so I'll continue to fade. Prices still suggest they are the dominate team they have been in years past when in reality they are more likely just scratching the surface of the top ten. The Jets certainly have offensive firepower and have recently been getting some strong goaltending from youngster Conner Hellebuyck. I'm still not in love with the Jets defensively, but with their offensive firepower, improved goaltending and Chicago's inflated public perception, I'll take nearly 2:1 all day long.

Ottawa +170 OT included

As stated ad nauseum, the Rangers are overrated and consistently over priced. I do have my concerns with an erratic Senators squad whom I believe is massively overrated, but my concerns diminish at this price. Anderson, much like the team in front of him, is all over the place. Hopefully, he is up for the challenge of facing one of the best netminders in the league and produces one of his stellar performances.

Best of luck with your action.

 

[ERockMoney]

-6.670

Been on the road for work a ton lately and haven't played too many games. I did get to take in a game at TD Garden and American Airlines Center, my first ever visit to the latter. I'm playing four this evening:

Ottawa +200 Regulation Only

Montreal at an inflated price here, sans Price, as the market continues to over value the Canadiens IMO. Ottawa as a bit of a helter skelter side, capable of wide variance in play from night to night, especially Anderson in net. My perception is the Senators usually get up for the Canadiens so I'm banking on a strong effort from Anderson and company.

Columbus +175 Regulation Only

This line is nearly is fifty cents over priced according to my numbers with the Jackets still undervalued and the disappointing Islanders overvalued. Columbus is closer to 20 than 30 in my rankings, but consistently is priced as a side that is one of the worst in the league. I'm a bit concerned with McElhinney in net, but am comfortable with that risk at this price.

Colorado +175 OT Included

As stated previously, I'm not high on the Avs at all. They may be the worst team in the league, but they can score. They face an over priced Predators side who has some holes defensively and in net.

Minnesota +135 OT Included

Minnesota is a mid range side, but the team has some grit to them and is worth a look at this price. San Jose, especially Jones, are coming back to earth a bit and continuing to be slightly overvalue according to my numbers. I'll take a shot at +135 on a game my numbers say is a coin flip.

DFS continues to turn massive profits, higher than anything I've experienced in sports gambling. I'm looking at CLB2, COL1, MIN2, CGY1, OTT1, AZ1, STL1 and CAR1. I feel like playing against the horrific Stars defense is a must, but would keep in lower entry GPP with possible negative +/- implications. Looking to tie my favorite line of the night COL1 with either MIN2 or AZ1. In net, trying to get Andrson and Bishop in and possible flyer on the lower priced McElhinney.

Best of luck with your action.