SageStats ensign_lee
Record of bets that SageStats can't track can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
YTD: 16-5-0
Units Won: 35.87
Hey guys,
It's week 3 guys! Hooray! And hooray for me having power to watch the game (live in Houston, and half the city still doesn't from Ike).
One change from this week forward is that my wager sizes will be changing. I was originally using 1.5% of my initial bankroll as a unit size. Now that the bankroll has about doubled, my new unit size = 1.5x my old unit size. BUT, since it would be pretty confusing to keep saying "1 unit" when it means a different amount of money in week 3 than it did in week 2, I will still be marking my unit sizes the same in these threads.
What does this mean? If you see a bet from me that is a 1.5 unit play, that is the same confidence that I would have had in a 1 unit play previously. A 3 unit play now would be the same as a 2 unit play earlier. Hopefully, that makes sense and won't create problems for people trying to understand why it is that I'm betting more.
I figure that this will help me achieve closer to a pure Kelly Criterion profit/loss come the end of the season. I had thought about using the Kelly exclusively, but then just uh...didn't. hah.
Anyway, on to the games!
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Tennessee Titans -5 (+117)
6 units at matchbook
Ugh...I hate betting against my team, but I don't think that the Texans have adequately prepared for this game. Lots of them had homes damaged in the hurricane and families that took serious damage as well. The roof of Mario William's mom's house got completely ripped off. Travis Johnson (starting DT)'s house got flooded. Owen Daniel's (starting TE) place got trashed as well, though not as badly as TJ's. I know people might be thinking that we're coming off a "bye" week (hah at that notion), but we're not. It's almost like a short week for us, since we didn't have that extra week to prepare for the Titans (we were preparing for the Ravens), and out players have had to deal with a natural disaster in the city in addition to worrying about the game on Sunday.
Meanwhile, this is still a rivalry game for both teams, and I think that Tennessee won't have any pity on us as far as the hurricane is concerned. Their mindsets will be more ready for the game, and they will be able to maintain their intensity longer (compared to Texans players whose thoughts may still be of home and how they're going to fix it). Couple that with the fact that I still think this Titans team is a stronger team with Kerry Collins in the lineup rather than Vince Young, and I think that a line of -5, especially at the +money that I was able to effectively get from matchbook, makes this a strong bet.
Plus, I don't see any reason why our defensive struggles shouldn't continue against Tennessee. If Fisher figures out that if you throw at Reeves, you'll get first downs more often than not, we're scrwed. And the Titans defense is strong enough to stifle our run game, again forcing us to rely on Matt Schaub to carry the load. He's a good QB, but I'm not sure that our o-line is up to the task of proteting him long enough for good things to happen.
(remember, this 6 unit play has the same confidence level of a 4 unit play earlier)
IND/JAX UNDER 42 (-110)
3 units at theGreek
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand why the total is at 42, when the Jaguars are still signing free agents to start on their offensive line and the Colts starting LT is out, starting C is probably out, and one of their main inside weapons (TE) is probably going to be limited if playing or will be out. I surely do wish that Sanders was still playing, because the Colts defense is an entirely different animal without him, but hopefully, the rest of the IND defense will be able to step up in his absence. This total should have come out at closer to 37.5; I'll make the under bet with two nonexistent offensive lines when it's as high as 42.
Pittsburgh Steelers M/L (+173.46
1.5 units at Matchbook
That Eagles/Cowboys matchup last week sure was something, eh? You know both teams spent the entirety of last week getting ready and pumping themselves up for that MNF game. I think that both of them will suffer somewhat of a hangover this Sunday, especially with one less day to prepare compared to their opponents. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a strong, strong team that I can think can easily go toe to toe with the Eagles. at +170, I think the Steelers win this game often enough to make this bet +EV. I probably would have let this bet go, seeing as I thought the line should have been at -3 and it showed up at -3.5, but for the short week and my belief that the Eagles won't be able to get as "up" for this game as they were during their heartbreaking loss to the Dallas Cowboys this last Monday.
Green Bay Packers +3 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
So, with GB a +3 home dog, the oddsmaker are effectively saying that if this game was played in Dallas, the line would be DAL -9?!! DAL is good; but not leaps and bounds ahead of the competition good. I was going to take the moneyline, but M/L at +140 seemed less appealing to me than getting 3 points at only 45 cents, especially since Pinnacle is holding DAL -3 (+104) out there, which means that they'd take GB +3 at (-104). In fact, last night when I made the bet, the price on DAL -3 at Pinnacle was +105. If Pinnacle is willing to take it, so am I.
This is still a matchup of undefeated teams. and last year, both of these teams made the playoffs at the top of the NFC. The Packers bring back largely the same personnel; I don't see why Dallas should be spotting GB anything when visiting Lambeau. Couple that with the MNF hangover that I was talking about above, and I think this is a good bet. I may yet make it a two unit bet (although then my average odds would be -107.5 as the best line I see out there now is -110.
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Record of bets that SageStats can't track can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
YTD: 16-5-0
Units Won: 35.87
Hey guys,
It's week 3 guys! Hooray! And hooray for me having power to watch the game (live in Houston, and half the city still doesn't from Ike).
One change from this week forward is that my wager sizes will be changing. I was originally using 1.5% of my initial bankroll as a unit size. Now that the bankroll has about doubled, my new unit size = 1.5x my old unit size. BUT, since it would be pretty confusing to keep saying "1 unit" when it means a different amount of money in week 3 than it did in week 2, I will still be marking my unit sizes the same in these threads.
What does this mean? If you see a bet from me that is a 1.5 unit play, that is the same confidence that I would have had in a 1 unit play previously. A 3 unit play now would be the same as a 2 unit play earlier. Hopefully, that makes sense and won't create problems for people trying to understand why it is that I'm betting more.
I figure that this will help me achieve closer to a pure Kelly Criterion profit/loss come the end of the season. I had thought about using the Kelly exclusively, but then just uh...didn't. hah.
Anyway, on to the games!
---
Tennessee Titans -5 (+117)
6 units at matchbook
Ugh...I hate betting against my team, but I don't think that the Texans have adequately prepared for this game. Lots of them had homes damaged in the hurricane and families that took serious damage as well. The roof of Mario William's mom's house got completely ripped off. Travis Johnson (starting DT)'s house got flooded. Owen Daniel's (starting TE) place got trashed as well, though not as badly as TJ's. I know people might be thinking that we're coming off a "bye" week (hah at that notion), but we're not. It's almost like a short week for us, since we didn't have that extra week to prepare for the Titans (we were preparing for the Ravens), and out players have had to deal with a natural disaster in the city in addition to worrying about the game on Sunday.
Meanwhile, this is still a rivalry game for both teams, and I think that Tennessee won't have any pity on us as far as the hurricane is concerned. Their mindsets will be more ready for the game, and they will be able to maintain their intensity longer (compared to Texans players whose thoughts may still be of home and how they're going to fix it). Couple that with the fact that I still think this Titans team is a stronger team with Kerry Collins in the lineup rather than Vince Young, and I think that a line of -5, especially at the +money that I was able to effectively get from matchbook, makes this a strong bet.
Plus, I don't see any reason why our defensive struggles shouldn't continue against Tennessee. If Fisher figures out that if you throw at Reeves, you'll get first downs more often than not, we're scrwed. And the Titans defense is strong enough to stifle our run game, again forcing us to rely on Matt Schaub to carry the load. He's a good QB, but I'm not sure that our o-line is up to the task of proteting him long enough for good things to happen.
(remember, this 6 unit play has the same confidence level of a 4 unit play earlier)
IND/JAX UNDER 42 (-110)
3 units at theGreek
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand why the total is at 42, when the Jaguars are still signing free agents to start on their offensive line and the Colts starting LT is out, starting C is probably out, and one of their main inside weapons (TE) is probably going to be limited if playing or will be out. I surely do wish that Sanders was still playing, because the Colts defense is an entirely different animal without him, but hopefully, the rest of the IND defense will be able to step up in his absence. This total should have come out at closer to 37.5; I'll make the under bet with two nonexistent offensive lines when it's as high as 42.
Pittsburgh Steelers M/L (+173.46
1.5 units at Matchbook
That Eagles/Cowboys matchup last week sure was something, eh? You know both teams spent the entirety of last week getting ready and pumping themselves up for that MNF game. I think that both of them will suffer somewhat of a hangover this Sunday, especially with one less day to prepare compared to their opponents. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a strong, strong team that I can think can easily go toe to toe with the Eagles. at +170, I think the Steelers win this game often enough to make this bet +EV. I probably would have let this bet go, seeing as I thought the line should have been at -3 and it showed up at -3.5, but for the short week and my belief that the Eagles won't be able to get as "up" for this game as they were during their heartbreaking loss to the Dallas Cowboys this last Monday.
Green Bay Packers +3 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
So, with GB a +3 home dog, the oddsmaker are effectively saying that if this game was played in Dallas, the line would be DAL -9?!! DAL is good; but not leaps and bounds ahead of the competition good. I was going to take the moneyline, but M/L at +140 seemed less appealing to me than getting 3 points at only 45 cents, especially since Pinnacle is holding DAL -3 (+104) out there, which means that they'd take GB +3 at (-104). In fact, last night when I made the bet, the price on DAL -3 at Pinnacle was +105. If Pinnacle is willing to take it, so am I.
This is still a matchup of undefeated teams. and last year, both of these teams made the playoffs at the top of the NFC. The Packers bring back largely the same personnel; I don't see why Dallas should be spotting GB anything when visiting Lambeau. Couple that with the MNF hangover that I was talking about above, and I think this is a good bet. I may yet make it a two unit bet (although then my average odds would be -107.5 as the best line I see out there now is -110.
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