SageStats ensign_lee
Bets not at SageStats tracked on this googledoc: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
As a quick summary, here's some of things that SageStats is showing:
<table summary="Summary of statistics"><tbody><tr><td>Average Amount Earned Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">$41.1</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Amount Bet Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">$309.87</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Return on Investment </td><td style="text-align: right;">13%</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="3">
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Odds Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">+137</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Required Breakeven Winning Percentage </td><td style="text-align: right;">44%</td><td>?</td></tr></tbody></table>
So my average play has been about a two unit play so far, and my breakeven winning percentage is at 44%, since my average odds aren't -110 or -105, but +137. This last week completely SUUUCKED, but well, life continues. But wow, have I gotten wtfpwnt lately.
But oh well, life goes on. If I'd told myself at the beginning that I'd be at the point where I am just about halfway through the season, I would have been ecstatic, so hey. It's cool. I knew I had to fall back down to earth after the first 2 weeks. Just didn't think I'd make such a big *thud* while doing it. lol.
Anyway, on to this week's picks. Texans have a late game today, so I'll be able to stick around and answer questions (you know, like if anyone was reading) if anyone has any.
~~~
3-Team 6 Point Teaser (+180):
HOU -2.5
WAS -1.5
TEN -3
5 units at BetTrojan
Yeah, I know. This bet is really big. It really should probably be more like 2 to 3 units, but I rashly made the decision to make it 5 units after I lost on the New York Giants game, and there is no logistical way to reduce the wager amount of a teaser. So here I am.
I'm crossing through the 7 and the 3 on all three legs except TEN, where it lands on the 3. HOU and TEN are facing teams that are probably going to finish in the bottom of their respective divisions and conferences and will probably be dueling the rest of the season to see who can get the first pick (much like HOU and SF just a few years back). I feel confident taking two AFC teams against them.
As for WAS vs. Cleveland, I'll be fading the Browns again. Here's hoping they don't burn me twice.
NO/CAR OVER 44.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
Honestly, I thought this would be closer to 49. The reason that NO's overs have been going over all year is that Jason David is over there starting at one of the CB slots. With him over there, half the field is usually open to the QB, especially on 3rd down situations. So teams with a competent QB and a good 2nd WR can take advantage of those situations all day long. And well, NO's offense is *very* good at scoring. I think this total is set too low when pitting a NO defense vs. a potent passing attack.
New York Giants -10 (-110)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
This is basically following the trend of West Coast teams doing poorly on the East Coast. That, and I feel as though New York will vent all their frustrations from MNF if they can, and SF is a team that I don't think will be able to stand up to it.
Houston -9.5 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
I had planned on making this a major play originally, thinking that the line would come out around -6.5 or so that and that people wouldn't be willing to lay more points than 6.5 with a 1-4 team. Well uh, I was wrong. I figured that at worst, a fair line would be -7.5 and I'd still be willing to wager on it.
When the line came out at -8.5, then moved to -9.5, I was shocked honestly. I mean, I fully expect the Texans to be able to take care of business here, but wow. 9.5? I ended up still making this a one unit play, as I would have been willing to lay 7.5, and 9.5 really isn't all that much different.
But anyway, on to actual analysis:
Houston is NOT as bad as lots of people seem to think they are. Yes, they had an epic collapse vs. the Colts. Yes, they started off 0-4. But look at their schedule. Started the season off with *THREE* road games against *THREE* playoff teams. OWTF. Who's idea was that? And then we had a devastating hurricane Week 2 which took the player's focus off of football and onto the crisis. I mean, wow. You could not have designed a worse starting schedule for us.
But let's look at the games there. Week 1, yes, we got completely wtfpwnt. Every strength of the Steelers played right into our weaknesses. If you go and look up my week 1 thread, you'll see more analysis as far as that goes. Week 3, with many player's houses flattened or damaged, along with the crisis going on around the city, did you really expect the players' focus to be on football? Week 3 is a more accurate gauge of the calibur of the team. We lost in OT after our defense gave up several 4th down conversions int eh 4th quarter. We were in that game the entire time, and we didn't punt in the second half. If we were better at coinflips, we could have easily won that game. Week 4: make no mistake about it, we kicked the Colts' ass up and down that field for 56 damn minutes. Then Sage Rosencopter decides to implode and the team goes down with him.
Week 5 was a true test of the team's character. That week 4 collapse could have spelled disaster for the team not only in this season, but changing morale going into future season. That final drive by Schaub was EPIC as far as momentum and morale for this young franchise. THey've got their heads back in the right place now, and should be ready to take care of business. Look ahead on their schedule - there is no game there where you can truly say "automatic loss". It is entirely possible we can end up like the Saints did last year and do really well down the stretch, and be in playoff contention, only to whiff at the last second.
Wow, too much analysis on the season. Ok, on this particular game. The defense is getting back one of the team leaders that we lost last year: DUNTA ROBINSON WOOOOH! Even if he plays only sparingly, the mental makeup of this defense is completely different with him in the game. He brings an intensity that few others on this team can even hope to match. And the Texans offense? I don't know if anyone noticed, be we are #5 ranked in the league. Against a supposedly porous Lions secondary and defense, I think that the points will flow in today's game.
Now, without Kitna there, I'm not so sure about the Lions offense. Our defense has faced top calibur offenses in pretty much all the games so far (minus Miami). And in the Colts game, they really only gave up like 14 to the Colts. The offense handed the Colts defense the rest of the points, in essence. Our defense still has holes, to be sure, but I don't think that the Lions backup can take advantage of them.
and that reasoning brings us to...
Detroit Lions Team Total UNDER 18.5 (-115)
1.5 units at theGreek
Reasoning above.
And for my final play for the day,
New York Jets -3 (-109)
3 units, mixed between matchbook and bettrojan
Yes, this is a public play. But you know? I don't care. I forgot something when I was betting with the Raiders last week: the fact that the Raiders are in emotional disarray, and that linesmakers don't always take that into account properly. Look at the way the public profited from the Gasol trade to the Lakers last NBA season.
The firing of Lane Kiffin deflated any sort of emotional pride that the Raiders players had left in their organization, and they simply don't have the talent to go out their and steamroll their opponents without that emotional edge. Once they get behind, well, it's just about game over. I should have taken that into account last week, but chose to ignore it in favor of the line moving the wrong way.
Well, I think it'll take the linemakers a few weeks to catch up to this, which makes this bet prime pickings against an offense led by Brett Favre that is indeed capable of scoring furiously to start the game and kill the Raiders' spirit.
Bets not at SageStats tracked on this googledoc: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
As a quick summary, here's some of things that SageStats is showing:
<table summary="Summary of statistics"><tbody><tr><td>Average Amount Earned Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">$41.1</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Amount Bet Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">$309.87</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Return on Investment </td><td style="text-align: right;">13%</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td colspan="3">
</td></tr> <tr><td>Average Odds Per Bet </td><td style="text-align: right;">+137</td><td>
</td></tr> <tr><td>Required Breakeven Winning Percentage </td><td style="text-align: right;">44%</td><td>?</td></tr></tbody></table>
So my average play has been about a two unit play so far, and my breakeven winning percentage is at 44%, since my average odds aren't -110 or -105, but +137. This last week completely SUUUCKED, but well, life continues. But wow, have I gotten wtfpwnt lately.
But oh well, life goes on. If I'd told myself at the beginning that I'd be at the point where I am just about halfway through the season, I would have been ecstatic, so hey. It's cool. I knew I had to fall back down to earth after the first 2 weeks. Just didn't think I'd make such a big *thud* while doing it. lol.
Anyway, on to this week's picks. Texans have a late game today, so I'll be able to stick around and answer questions (you know, like if anyone was reading) if anyone has any.
~~~
3-Team 6 Point Teaser (+180):
HOU -2.5
WAS -1.5
TEN -3
5 units at BetTrojan
Yeah, I know. This bet is really big. It really should probably be more like 2 to 3 units, but I rashly made the decision to make it 5 units after I lost on the New York Giants game, and there is no logistical way to reduce the wager amount of a teaser. So here I am.
I'm crossing through the 7 and the 3 on all three legs except TEN, where it lands on the 3. HOU and TEN are facing teams that are probably going to finish in the bottom of their respective divisions and conferences and will probably be dueling the rest of the season to see who can get the first pick (much like HOU and SF just a few years back). I feel confident taking two AFC teams against them.
As for WAS vs. Cleveland, I'll be fading the Browns again. Here's hoping they don't burn me twice.
NO/CAR OVER 44.5 (-105)
3 units at BetTrojan
Honestly, I thought this would be closer to 49. The reason that NO's overs have been going over all year is that Jason David is over there starting at one of the CB slots. With him over there, half the field is usually open to the QB, especially on 3rd down situations. So teams with a competent QB and a good 2nd WR can take advantage of those situations all day long. And well, NO's offense is *very* good at scoring. I think this total is set too low when pitting a NO defense vs. a potent passing attack.
New York Giants -10 (-110)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
This is basically following the trend of West Coast teams doing poorly on the East Coast. That, and I feel as though New York will vent all their frustrations from MNF if they can, and SF is a team that I don't think will be able to stand up to it.
Houston -9.5 (-105)
1.5 units at BetTrojan
I had planned on making this a major play originally, thinking that the line would come out around -6.5 or so that and that people wouldn't be willing to lay more points than 6.5 with a 1-4 team. Well uh, I was wrong. I figured that at worst, a fair line would be -7.5 and I'd still be willing to wager on it.
When the line came out at -8.5, then moved to -9.5, I was shocked honestly. I mean, I fully expect the Texans to be able to take care of business here, but wow. 9.5? I ended up still making this a one unit play, as I would have been willing to lay 7.5, and 9.5 really isn't all that much different.
But anyway, on to actual analysis:
Houston is NOT as bad as lots of people seem to think they are. Yes, they had an epic collapse vs. the Colts. Yes, they started off 0-4. But look at their schedule. Started the season off with *THREE* road games against *THREE* playoff teams. OWTF. Who's idea was that? And then we had a devastating hurricane Week 2 which took the player's focus off of football and onto the crisis. I mean, wow. You could not have designed a worse starting schedule for us.
But let's look at the games there. Week 1, yes, we got completely wtfpwnt. Every strength of the Steelers played right into our weaknesses. If you go and look up my week 1 thread, you'll see more analysis as far as that goes. Week 3, with many player's houses flattened or damaged, along with the crisis going on around the city, did you really expect the players' focus to be on football? Week 3 is a more accurate gauge of the calibur of the team. We lost in OT after our defense gave up several 4th down conversions int eh 4th quarter. We were in that game the entire time, and we didn't punt in the second half. If we were better at coinflips, we could have easily won that game. Week 4: make no mistake about it, we kicked the Colts' ass up and down that field for 56 damn minutes. Then Sage Rosencopter decides to implode and the team goes down with him.
Week 5 was a true test of the team's character. That week 4 collapse could have spelled disaster for the team not only in this season, but changing morale going into future season. That final drive by Schaub was EPIC as far as momentum and morale for this young franchise. THey've got their heads back in the right place now, and should be ready to take care of business. Look ahead on their schedule - there is no game there where you can truly say "automatic loss". It is entirely possible we can end up like the Saints did last year and do really well down the stretch, and be in playoff contention, only to whiff at the last second.
Wow, too much analysis on the season. Ok, on this particular game. The defense is getting back one of the team leaders that we lost last year: DUNTA ROBINSON WOOOOH! Even if he plays only sparingly, the mental makeup of this defense is completely different with him in the game. He brings an intensity that few others on this team can even hope to match. And the Texans offense? I don't know if anyone noticed, be we are #5 ranked in the league. Against a supposedly porous Lions secondary and defense, I think that the points will flow in today's game.
Now, without Kitna there, I'm not so sure about the Lions offense. Our defense has faced top calibur offenses in pretty much all the games so far (minus Miami). And in the Colts game, they really only gave up like 14 to the Colts. The offense handed the Colts defense the rest of the points, in essence. Our defense still has holes, to be sure, but I don't think that the Lions backup can take advantage of them.
and that reasoning brings us to...
Detroit Lions Team Total UNDER 18.5 (-115)
1.5 units at theGreek
Reasoning above.
And for my final play for the day,
New York Jets -3 (-109)
3 units, mixed between matchbook and bettrojan
Yes, this is a public play. But you know? I don't care. I forgot something when I was betting with the Raiders last week: the fact that the Raiders are in emotional disarray, and that linesmakers don't always take that into account properly. Look at the way the public profited from the Gasol trade to the Lakers last NBA season.
The firing of Lane Kiffin deflated any sort of emotional pride that the Raiders players had left in their organization, and they simply don't have the talent to go out their and steamroll their opponents without that emotional edge. Once they get behind, well, it's just about game over. I should have taken that into account last week, but chose to ignore it in favor of the line moving the wrong way.
Well, I think it'll take the linemakers a few weeks to catch up to this, which makes this bet prime pickings against an offense led by Brett Favre that is indeed capable of scoring furiously to start the game and kill the Raiders' spirit.
