SageStats ensign_lee
Bets not tracked at SageStats can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
YTD: 26-21-0
Units Won: +39.70 units
Last Week: 5-5
Units Won: +9.8 units
~~~
Wen .500 last week, but it's cool, since I usually take wagers that aren't -110. In fact, according to SageStats (which usually records the more conventional bets that I make), my breakeven winning percentage is 45%, and so far I'm running a fair amount above that: definitely above expected value, so woohoo!
So, for this week, I put in bets early, but then work swallowed up my life. For the most part, you can get lines similar to them now. But uh, yeah.
Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (+181.3)
2 units at Matchbook
Baltimore Ravens +4.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Colts aren't what they used to be. But I don't think that the public realizes that just yet. That's why teh line opened at 6, I believe. Their offense isn't working the way that it used to, and it's supposed to be the strength of their team. Without Bob Sanders and a presence in the middle, this defense can't really seem to stop anyone. And yes, I know the Ravens are offesnviely challenged, but I think that Flacco can get the job done here. His showing in the Pittsburgh game is good evidence that he doesn't get rattled easily - I'm willing to bet that if he was ok at PIT, he'll be ok at IND.
I think the line should be closer to pk. The Ravens had bad breaks and some ticky tack calls that could have gone either way to get them to 2-2. The Colts needed last second miracles, twice, to get them to 2-2. I think this is the game where people finally realize this is not hte Indy of old.
New England Patriots +6
1 unit at BetTrojan
Yes, I should have posted this earlier. I'm sorry. But +5 isn't that different really, and if I'd waited, I'd still take Patriots +5. Despite the abberation against Miami, this is still a talented football team. And they'll be going against a team that isn't in sync yet either: San Diego. This game should be closer to SD -3. At -6, value falls on the Patriots. Ask yourself, if this game was in NE, would the game be lined at pk, like this line suggests? or would it be lined closer to Patriots -2, -3? Personally, I think it would be at pk. I may hedge this out, but doubt I will have time to do so. We'll see. I'd prefer to have the NE moneyline, honestly, and should have just hit that initially.
Oakland Moneyline
2 units at Matchbook
No, this bet doesn't make sense to me either. Really. I don't understand how the spread went from starting at -7.5 to resting at -6.5 or -7, depending on your shop. But the fact remains that the line moved through the 7, the wrong direction, with 70% of bets coming in New Orleans. I haven't seen an injury on the side of NO that would make this make logical sense, and this game is the first on the rotation.
This bet is being made on pure blind faith. Yikes. Go Oakland?
If you have the ability to wait until closer to gametie, you can probably get better odds by doing so. I'd do it, but I'm going to the Texans game tomorrow with my little cousin and so won't be able to do much as far as handicapping after 10:00.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser (+180)
New York Jets -2.5
New York Giants -2
3rd spot open
2 units at BetTrojan
Without Palmer, the Bengals lose their most potent offensive weapon. Fitzpatrick is the backup? I don't have any faith in this kid to even come closer to the production of Palmer. And the Jets are talented enough, especially coming off of a bye, to take advantage of the Bengals weaknesses. Teasing through the 7 and the 3 I think presents a +EV opportunity here.
Yeah, this is a public bet too. But the browns haven't shown me that they deserve respect yet and so I'm not going to give it to them. Taking the Giants -2 is almost a moneyline bet, and I think that they can get the job done here.
As for the third leg, I don't really know what I'm going to do here just yet. I probably should have taken Baltimore to +10.5, but uh...that's no longer an option. Plus, I'm not a big fan of teasing against teams who have the potential to explode on offense. I may have to leave this leg open until next week. We'll see.
Bets not tracked at SageStats can be found at http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=plRZps_o67n9OmfDlRSHfbA&hl=en
YTD: 26-21-0
Units Won: +39.70 units
Last Week: 5-5
Units Won: +9.8 units
~~~
Wen .500 last week, but it's cool, since I usually take wagers that aren't -110. In fact, according to SageStats (which usually records the more conventional bets that I make), my breakeven winning percentage is 45%, and so far I'm running a fair amount above that: definitely above expected value, so woohoo!
So, for this week, I put in bets early, but then work swallowed up my life. For the most part, you can get lines similar to them now. But uh, yeah.
Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (+181.3)
2 units at Matchbook
Baltimore Ravens +4.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
The Colts aren't what they used to be. But I don't think that the public realizes that just yet. That's why teh line opened at 6, I believe. Their offense isn't working the way that it used to, and it's supposed to be the strength of their team. Without Bob Sanders and a presence in the middle, this defense can't really seem to stop anyone. And yes, I know the Ravens are offesnviely challenged, but I think that Flacco can get the job done here. His showing in the Pittsburgh game is good evidence that he doesn't get rattled easily - I'm willing to bet that if he was ok at PIT, he'll be ok at IND.
I think the line should be closer to pk. The Ravens had bad breaks and some ticky tack calls that could have gone either way to get them to 2-2. The Colts needed last second miracles, twice, to get them to 2-2. I think this is the game where people finally realize this is not hte Indy of old.
New England Patriots +6
1 unit at BetTrojan
Yes, I should have posted this earlier. I'm sorry. But +5 isn't that different really, and if I'd waited, I'd still take Patriots +5. Despite the abberation against Miami, this is still a talented football team. And they'll be going against a team that isn't in sync yet either: San Diego. This game should be closer to SD -3. At -6, value falls on the Patriots. Ask yourself, if this game was in NE, would the game be lined at pk, like this line suggests? or would it be lined closer to Patriots -2, -3? Personally, I think it would be at pk. I may hedge this out, but doubt I will have time to do so. We'll see. I'd prefer to have the NE moneyline, honestly, and should have just hit that initially.
Oakland Moneyline
2 units at Matchbook
No, this bet doesn't make sense to me either. Really. I don't understand how the spread went from starting at -7.5 to resting at -6.5 or -7, depending on your shop. But the fact remains that the line moved through the 7, the wrong direction, with 70% of bets coming in New Orleans. I haven't seen an injury on the side of NO that would make this make logical sense, and this game is the first on the rotation.
This bet is being made on pure blind faith. Yikes. Go Oakland?
If you have the ability to wait until closer to gametie, you can probably get better odds by doing so. I'd do it, but I'm going to the Texans game tomorrow with my little cousin and so won't be able to do much as far as handicapping after 10:00.
3 Team 6 Point Teaser (+180)
New York Jets -2.5
New York Giants -2
3rd spot open
2 units at BetTrojan
Without Palmer, the Bengals lose their most potent offensive weapon. Fitzpatrick is the backup? I don't have any faith in this kid to even come closer to the production of Palmer. And the Jets are talented enough, especially coming off of a bye, to take advantage of the Bengals weaknesses. Teasing through the 7 and the 3 I think presents a +EV opportunity here.
Yeah, this is a public bet too. But the browns haven't shown me that they deserve respect yet and so I'm not going to give it to them. Taking the Giants -2 is almost a moneyline bet, and I think that they can get the job done here.
As for the third leg, I don't really know what I'm going to do here just yet. I probably should have taken Baltimore to +10.5, but uh...that's no longer an option. Plus, I'm not a big fan of teasing against teams who have the potential to explode on offense. I may have to leave this leg open until next week. We'll see.
