Eleven Teams That Will Disappoint in 2011

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2. Michigan State Spartans
(Projected 5-7, 2-6)

The Spartans played well above their heads last season and will fall back to earth in 2011. The new Big Ten should pose plenty of problems for the Spartans and I’d be shocked if they catch as many breaks as they caught one year ago. The talk of this team winning the Big Ten or being a top 15 team in the country is beyond me, I think they will struggle to be bowl eligible.

The conference schedule features home games against Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana and a very difficult road schedule at Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. The non-conference slate features a home game with Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan and a road trip to Notre Dame.

The Spartans were 11-1 (7-1 Big Ten) in 2010 and were thoroughly dominated by Alabama in the bowl game 49-7 (the score could have been 70-7). I actually felt like I was witnessing a crime watching that game, it was absolutely brutal. I typically pride myself of being completely emotionless when is comes to wagering and handicapping, which has been an outstanding attribute to me, but I couldn’t believe what I was watching last year. I actually felt sorry for the Spartans – they seemed so helpless and I wanted to call someone to make it stop - I didn’t even have a play on the game and am far from a Spartans supporter.

The Spartans were a lot of smoke and mirrors last season, IMO and teams can generally not produce those types of results in consecutive seasons. Last year Michigan State ranked 38th on offense and 31st on defense and was a very balanced team cross the board ranking between 38-44 on most offensive categories and 20-31 on most defensive categories, outside of pass defense where they slipped to 60th.

Michigan State returns starting QB Cousins and a loaded backfield with Baker and Bell, which is probably the reason they are hyped as Big Ten title contender after an eleven win season. However, I think the offensive line and skill players on the outside rank in the bottom third of the conference and could slow the offense. All in, I think the Spartans have a legitimate shot at finishing in the top four of the conference offensively.

The Spartans issues may come on the defensive side of the ball, where the defensive line is loaded and is probably a top four unit in the conference, but the losses at LB are immense and the secondary looks extremely questionable. The line backing unit is green and will have to replace all-world LB Jones and the secondary has a reasonable shot at being in the bottom two-three of the conference.

Recruiting has been steady, I rate Michigan State with consecutive fifth place finished in the conference (including Nebraska) and top 30 national finishes in 2010 and 2011. The Spartans haven’t been able to keep up with the big boys in Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State, but are starting to create some separation from the remainder of the conference from a recruiting perspective.

I rate the Spartans closely with Michigan, Northwestern and Illinois and a notch or so above Minnesota and Purdue, but think they trail the bigger guns by a wider margin than most expect. I could see the Spartans losing all five of their road games this season and going 5-2 at home.

The Spartans got a lot of breaks last season and could have easily been a seven or eight win team versus an eleven win team. They missed Ohio State on the schedule, squeaked by Notre Dame on an excellent trick play in OT, had a miracle comeback against Northwestern, struggled with Purdue, squeaked by Penn State and were completely drilled by Iowa and Alabama. Outside of an impressive performance against Wisconsin, I saw nothing from this team to make think they are a contender in the Big Ten in 2011.
 

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1. Texas Tech Red Raiders
(Projected 4-8, 2-7)

Is there another team that has fallen so far so fast? Sure, Texas had their struggles last year, but I expect you will see improvement and they will be back on top quickly there is simply too much talent there. Leach had Tech as a perennial top 15-20 team and was starting to be mentioned in the same breath as Oklahoma and Texas. In fact, it seemed like a loss in Lubbock was expected by either of the big guns on their bi-annual trip. This team completely lacks any identity and anything to get excited about and is not close or even remotely close to the top of the conference. In fact, I don’t think they are close to the middle of the conference (Texas and Missouri).

The conference schedule features home games against Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State, road trips to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri with a neutral site game against Baylor. The non-conference slate features a home game with Nevada and a road trip to New Mexico.

Texas Tech was 7-5 (3-5 Big 12) in 2010 and knocked off Northwestern in the bowl game. The Red Raiders were an abysmal 116th in defense, 67th versus the run and 120th versus the pass at over 308 YPG. The defense was atrocious last season and is primed for a repeat performance in 2011. Of course, they should improve on a 116th ranking, but not by a great deal. The defensive line is adequate, probably smack in the middle of the conference (which may not be saying much with mammoth divide in talent from the top to the bottom of the conference), but the line backers and secondary are extremely questionable. In fact, the Tech secondary is probably the worst in the conference by a sizable margin.

The offense is in transition, but still has a reasonable chance to perform at a high level. The offensive line is above average by conference standards and returns all five starters from 2010 and Tech has some talent in the backfield as they rely more on the running game. Tech’s passing game will be handed over to one of the inexperienced signal callers and the wide receiving corps will be completely rebuilt.

I like Tuberville as a coach and think he did a fine job at Auburn before getting shafted. In fact, I would take Tuberville over Chizik any day of the week. He just isn’t the right guy for the Tech job and it’s not a great fit for the school or the coach. I think Tuberville could implement his plans, whatever they may be, but it’s going to be a four-five year process and I’m not sure he would be awarded that time. He will be catching flack for the poor performance compared to the Leach era and recruiting may suffer if they fall to the bottom of the conference. It’s a double edged sword and likely will cost TT the job and only hurt the future prospects of the conference, as one of the four they need to step up goes down in flames.

Recruiting saw a big spike in 2011, where Tech had a top 20 class, compared to the 2010 class which barely cracked the top 50. The 2011 class only ranked behind the big two in 2011 after being out recruited by six teams within the conference, including Baylor, in 2010. If my rankings are accurate, the poor the 2010 class will hurt the Red Raiders on the field this year.

I rate the Red Raiders in line with the bottom four of the conference, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State. The gap between Tech and the big three in 2011 is immense. Even though Tech gets Oklahoma State and Texas A&M at home, I give them very little chance to win these games and the trip to Norman should be extremely ugly. Tech gets the middle of the conference Missouri and Texas on the road, which should play out to be two high probability losses and I expect Tech loses these games by double digits. I think they will do no better than split with the bottom, leaving them a two win conference season and likely ninth-tenth place conference finish.

The new look Big 12 is something of an enigma at this point and I think there is a high level of concern on their ability to remain a top flight BCS conference. If A&M and Oklahoma State fall back to more mediocre teams, say top 30-40, and this conference even gets a whiff on a one game conference schedule between Oklahoma and Texas the wheels likely fall off, IMO.

When and undefeated Texas or Oklahoma is passed up for various one loss SEC, Pac 12 or Big Ten teams the shockwave would destroy the Big 12. If Oklahoma and Texas are removed from serious title consideration on annual basis due to the weakness of their schedule/conference, how long do you thing the decision makers at these two powerhouses would continue their love affair with the Big 12? The Sooners always schedule at least one powerful non-conference game, but would they soon need two? What happens if the non-conference name power (Notre Dame on the upcoming schedule) has an off year?

This year, the conference is fine with three powerful teams and the ACC favorite Seminoles on Oklahoma’s schedule. Oklahoma and Texas likely need two from the group of Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri and/or Texas Tech to be not only good, but very good on an annual basis. If this can happen, I don’t see any immediate problems for the future success of the conference.

The SEC is the power, the new look Big Ten and Pac 12 are setting themselves up nicely and who knows what the Big East will look like with TCU and if the ACC can regain some form of power. Could the Big 12, if only a two team conference, be in danger of falling behind all the other BCS conferences? I think that might be a stretch, but I don’t doubt the conference would be considered well below the big three if the second tier Big 12 teams don’t remain top tier, nationally recognized teams. Oklahoma and Texas’s title chances are greatly diminished if they are annually hoping only one team from the big three conferences has a one loss season or better.

Lastly the conference as a whole will need to beef up the non-conference slate to keep on the national scene. Many teams in the conference schedule well, but a handful, especially lesser teams (Texas Tech and Kansas State) could help by playing and playing well against mid-level teams from some of the power conferences.
 

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And....they say that "12th" Man has been messing around the last few years (probably with the women on campus) and we all know how that plays out on the field.
 

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How far has Jeff Tedford's star fallen? Wow!

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Not too far, but he's his own worse enemy. He read the media accounts of how good he was and believed it. He hires OCs and instead of letting them work, he wants to run things. As a result, OCs don't want to stay, especially since Cal does not pay assistants like other upper echelon PAC12 teams or other prominent coaches.

He's still a sharp coach though but that star is not as bright as it once was. I will say this, his teams always seem to be able to run the ball and if he could stop tinkering with his QBs he's be okay.

WinOne!!
 

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How far has Jeff Tedford's star fallen? Wow!

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That's possible Coach and I'm inclined to agree except for one possibility that looms large as a viable excuse I can think of on is behalf.

First think Aaron Rogers. Tedford basically taught him all he knows. He was the QB during the Tedford era of coaching great QB's with perhaps the least expectations. I only say that because it took the NFL a whole 23 first round picks to get to Rogers. Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, David Carr and Trent Dilfer were all drafted higher than Rogers, most of them in the top 6. Dilfer and of course Aaron Rogers won super bowls. Rogers may win a bunch. He was selected to step in for a legend at the position and has not disappointed. But that was back in 2005 before he was drafted by Green Bay.

Among Cal's unheralded achievements under Tedford was a win over USC in 2003, the year USC was voted #1 by the AP and shared the NC with LSU. That was USC's sole loss that year. After Rogers left the school, there have been a parade of Bozos and misfit QB's running the Cal offense and they have been exceptionally bad to mediocre. With the exception of the first year following Rogers exit, they have not been the same team. You may recall the opening game of the 2006 season when rookie QB Nate Longshore and the Bears went to Neyland Stadium, when Longshore's play that day led to many here using the phrase "deer in the headlights" but that was exactly how he appeared in his first start. Not the greatest place to break in a new job but the Bear's offense stunk up the field that day. Some might say, well, that's obviously because Cal finally faced an SEC defense, but the team proved better than anyone thought that year eventually going 10-2 on the season and taking out that same SEC defense the following season on a return visit when Longshore wasn't as green. Cal was still on the move up and opened the following year beating Tennessee in a decisive win at home.

But 2007 was not to be the year of the Bear. After defeating Tennessee, they proceeded to win their next 4 games and achieved a#3 national ranking going into week 6 of the 2007 season. Then it all fell apart. The "fall of Tedford" can be traced back to a single game after which the Bears have been playing as if they walked into a different time zone. Tedford's fault? This is debatable. 2007 vividly defines the fall of Cal. Undefeated and ranked #3, the Bears were down by a FG with14 seconds left on the game clock at Oregon State's 12 yard line with no time outs left. Both LSU and Tennessee (#1 & #2) had already lost earlier that day. Kevin Riley was the Bear QB and for whatever reason on a 2nd down play, he decides it's time to scramble around the field instead of throwing the ball away leaving a chip shot FG which would have tied the game. Instead his scramble ran the final 14 seconds off the clock and the Bears were denied their first #1 ranking in eons. Tedford slammed his clipboard down on the ground and that was the beginning of the end for him and for Cal. They proceeded to lose 6 of their next 7 games to finish out the season, a monumental slide from being within seconds of a good shot at #1 to noplace. (Side note: Cal has not beaten Oregon St. ever since) Riley played out his career distinguishing himself as Mr. Inconsistent as had the rest of Cal's QB's since Rogers. Nate Longshore and Joe Ayoog fill out the remainder of his QB's since Rogers and I won't even bother to mention how many games Joe Ayoob literally threw away with his arm.

So the question remains, was it Tedford's fault or has he just been cursed by a few very thin skinned yeller bellied inconsistent QB's that never really had it in them to begin with? History tells us that Tedford is better than that. Maybe with the move by Zach Maynard from Buffalo, Cal's QB's will begin to achieve for Tedford. Or maybe he really has lost his touch the day he lost his cool and slammed his clipboard down on the ground. I've never seen that kind of incident mark a change like that but it looks that way... or maybe it wasn't him? We'll see soon enough, but the Bears need to do more than just develop a new QB this season by a long shot.

One last note, don't blame Tedford for the Bear's OC Andy Ludwig's failures. He made his rounds and was even the last OC at Oregon before Chip Kelly was hired to inject some creativity into a sagging game plan. Too much predictability were the words heard around the conference as Ludwig was given his pink slip and moved on. Tedford, also an OC at Oregon before being hired as Cal's HC hired Ludwig right after that. Nothing much to report there even in the face of some supreme talent in Cal's backfield (Jahvid Best/Shane Vereen) which you would think would make life easy for Longshore and Riley.

Andy Ludwig/Chip Kelly, both were OC's at Oregon and that was quite a difference... that should spell it out right there.
 

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Michigan State will not lose a home game this year. Best offensive skill set in the B10 and this years set of LB's will be better for pass defense which has hurt the previous LB crew. 7-8 wins at least.
Treadwell not at OC could be an issue, but they are keeping the same book and coaches who are familiar will be running it.
Offensive line is low end, agree there, but the kids replacing are better athletes that the ones they replace. OL was why they were manhandled against the top tier teams.

Good write ups. Just my 2 cents.
 

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Cinn will be a bottom feeder- one good year gets you a lot of attention but the ride is over.
 

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10. USC Trojans
(Projected 6-6, 4-5)

Much like the Gators at number 11, the Trojans are no longer able to simply dominate their opponents and have suffered a fall from grace. Unlike the Gators, they are not transitioning to a new sought after coach with the hope of righting the ship and questions are abound regarding HC Kiffin.

Kiffin has his hands full in the new look Pac 12 and faces a difficult conference schedule which features road trips to Arizona State, California, Colorado and Oregon and home games versus Utah, Arizona, Stanford, Washington and UCLA. The non conference slate features home games with Minnesota and Syracuse and a road trip to Notre Dame.

USC is off an 8-5 regular season (5-4 Pac 10) and the first year of their post-season ban. The Trojans had the nations 28th ranked offense and 83rd ranked offense. USC performed very uncharacteristically last season on the defensive side of the ball and although I expect improved numbers in 2011 they should still suffer in the offensive heavy Pac 12. Barkley is the real deal, but the Trojans desperately need some of these highly ranked recruits at the skill positions to quickly become the impact players we are accustomed to seeing at USC. The stable of runners in the backfield has promise and we could see a star emerge here, but the players on the outside need to improve. The offensive line has some holes and should suffer through a transition period early in 2011. I suspect the Trojans will struggle to rank in the upper half of the conference offensively with all the talent the Pac 12 has on that side of the ball.

The defense should improve, especially across the defensive line where this unit has a chance to be the conferences best. USC has plenty of talent up front and are deep and athletic on the line. The line backing unit and secondary must improve for the Trojans to compete on a week in and week out basis within the conference. I have my doubts regarding the defensive backfield, especially considering the talent at the quarterback position they will be facing almost on a weekly basis.

Recruiting hasn’t suffered the way many would have expected with the turmoil the past few years. USC has a wealth of young talent and if they develop faster than expected it could change the entire outlook for 2011. IMO, USC clearly had the best recruiting class in the conference the last two years.

The Trojans need to regain their swagger on the defensive side of the ball and cut down on mental mistakes and play a more disciplined game on both sides of the ball. The secondary and offensive line are serious concerns and must gel and/or improve early or these units will struggle mightily against the top competition on the schedule. I see this unit falling into the middle of the conference in terms of production.

The gap between USC and the conferences two powerhouses, Oregon and Stanford, is immense. I rate USC on par with Arizona and Utah within the conference, a notch below Arizona State and Washington and severely trailing the Ducks and Cardinal.

I project the Trojans to have a 6-6 season, which just doesn’t fly at USC. If my projection is accurate, I would be curious what, if anything becomes of Kiffin. The USC brass, alumni and media would have a field day with these types of results, which would be compounded if they are soundly beaten by the conferences top dogs, a former assistant coach and the Pac 12 places another representative in the title game – all of which are real possibilities.

I think the Trojans will be competitive in nearly all of their games, with the possible exception of the trip to Autzen, but I still see the losses piling up. Teams that lack discipline typically struggle to win close games and I’m not certain Kiffin has truly “reached” this team.


wow, i fully expect USC to be extremely improved this season. Im thinking at least 9 wins..... nice write up though
 

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8. Clemson Tigers
(Projected 5-7, 3-5)

Clemson is a team that has been on a downward spiral for years IMO. The talent they have put on the field year after year has far exceeded the results they have been able achieve. The talent isn’t where it once was, but still exists, which should correspond to this team falling short once again in 2011, as they are usually a shoe-in to underachieve. I expect the Tigers will be looking for a new coach in 2012 as they try to get back near the top of the ACC.

Clemson’s conference schedule features home games against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina and Wake Forest and road trips to Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech and NC State. The Tigers face a couple of SEC powers on the non-conference schedule with a home game versus Auburn and a road trip to in-state rival South Carolina.

The Tigers were 6-6 last season (4-4 ACC) and were upset by South Florida in the bowl game last season. The Tigers should continue to head down hill in 2011 and aren’t poised for a bounce back as some media outlets have suggested. The Tigers ranked 23rd on defense and 87th on offense in 2010. I expect the offense to improve and defense to slip a bit in 2011. The Tigers are simply average nearly everywhere in comparison to the other ACC teams. I like the Clemson offensive line and think the move from Harper to Ellington will be seamless. Boyd taking over at QB doesn’t hurt, because Parker was terrible last season. The question is how much does Boyd improve the offense, some I suspect, but I doubt he walks in and the Tigers are a dominant offense in the ACC, even with the addition of Morris as the OC.

Uncharacteristically, the Tigers seem a bit soft on the defensive line for the first time in years. Clemson has a made a name for themselves in recent years putting out great talents across the line. The line backing corps could be the top unit in the conference IMO and should be the strength of their defense. The secondary is suspect and is going through almost a complete overhaul. I expect this unit to struggle mightily this season.

Recruiting has been consistently strong as Clemson has cranked our consecutive top 20 classes IMO and has really on lagged Florida State in the conference. The Tigers problem has never been getting the talent, but developing it once they are on campus.

Clemson has the players, but lacks the necessary coaching to achieve outstanding results in the ACC. They consistently fail to close games out and always seem to end up on the short end of any tight battle. The Tigers are typically extremely undisciplined and fail to make the big play at the big moment. I think the Tigers probably split their home conference games and don’t see them winning more than one conference game away from home.

I rate Clemson on par with a Miami, Boston College and North Carolina. The biggest misconception I see is the thought Clemson is on par with a Florida State or Virginia Tech. The gap between Clemson and the top of the ACC is widening at a rapid pace. In fact, I think teams like Maryland and NC State could really surprise in 2011 and have surpassed the Tigers IMO.

I project the Clemson to have a 5-7 season, which is in line with the 2010 results, but for a program like Clemson to miss a bowl, post a 11-13 mark over two seasons and fall in a conference that hasn’t put out a team that has even sniffed title contention in years, is unacceptable.

If my projections are accurate and Clemson struggles we will likely see a new Tiger coach in 2012 and coupled with Morris’s expected improved offense, this team could be back near the top of the ACC rather quickly. The talent is there, no question, they just need to find a big time coach to restore a winning attitude and develop the athletes they consistently secure.

I completely agree one Clemson, in fact i think 6 wins is their ceiling. A lot of people are hyping the offensive coordinator move, but im not a big fan of his type "spread" offense being successful early on in a season or even year 1. Takes time in the system and the right personnel for that type of offense to be smooth.
 

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7. Oregon State Beavers
(Projected 3-9, 2-7)

It’s difficult to put the Beavers on this list and project only three wins for the season because Riley has been known to pull a few rabbits out of his hat in the past and Oregon State is returning their promising young QB Katz. However, the Beavers are going through a tough transition; especially on the defensive side of the ball and just don’t stack up in the deep Pac 12.

The Beavers conference schedule features home games against UCLA, Arizona, Stanford and Washington and road trips to Arizona State, Washington State, Utah, California and Oregon. The non-conference schedule has a home game against what should be a vastly improved BYU team and a road trip to Madison to face Wisconsin.

Oregon State was 5-7 last season (4-5 Pac 12) and took on both Boise State and TCU away from home. The Beavers ranked 86th on defense and 94th on offense in 2010. I expect the offense to improve in 2011, but the defense should continue to be one of the lesser units in the country. Katz returns and has a bright future and will benefit from playing behind a very sound offense line. Oregon State’s offensive line should be very good in 2011 and has a shot at being a top three unit in the conference. The Beavers lose star RB Rodgers to the NFL and his brother returns at WR off a serious injury in 2010. If Rodgers isn’t the same the Beavers will be severely lacking at the skill positions in comparison to their conference foes.

The Beavers may have the worst defense in the conference this season and are extremely thin in the front seven. In fact, I’m not even sure if they are even within striking distance of any other front seven in the conference - Washington State, maybe? The secondary is in a bit better shape, but likely won’t finish in the top half of the conference.

The 2010 recruiting class for the Beavers was a down group IMO, which will hurt Oregon State this season. Riley has shown a history of being able to coach up his players, but the 2010 class simply isn’t on par with the rest of the conference. Recruiting was up in 2011 for Oregon State and should have a greater impact on the 2012 campaign.

Unlike the Tigers in the number eight slot, Oregon State does have the coaching in place, but is lacking the talent on the field. I think the Beavers may start off slowly in 2011 and could be 1-5 before things start to settle with the personnel. Unfortunately, as the team likely improves down the stretch they have to face both Stanford and Oregon late in the season.

I would consider Oregon State in line with California and a few notches above UCLA, Colorado and Washington State. However, the gap is widening in comparison to the better teams in the conference.

I project the Beavers to have an uncharacteristic 3-9 season and really struggle in the new look Pac 12. The defense will struggle to compete with many of the high powered offense in the conference. The opposition should be able to move the ball at will on the ground and keep the Beaver offense off the field. The Beavers offense has a reasonable chance to be a solid unit in 2011, but they will likely have to score a ton to make up for the defense.

Oregon State should be more competitive later in the season if Riley can work his usual magic, but I expect this team to get off to a slow start and suffer in the early portion of the conference schedule.

I agree that Oregon State will have a down year, but i think 3 wins is a little low. I really like the Katz kid at QB, i think he will great this year. Replacing quizz is going to be a very tough thing to do for that offense. They do have a tough sched and i will put 6 wins as their ceiling.
 

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3. California Golden Bears
(Projected 3-9, 1-8)

This would be a rather dramatic fall for the Bears if my projection is accurate. Tedford just hasn’t gotten the job done at California in the last few years, especially based on the talent he has had at Berkeley. The talent has dipped IMO and the new and powerful Pac 12 may send Cal to the bottom of the conference. The Bears closed last season with three straight losses, all at home, and saw attendance sharply decrease. The final game of the season was one of the lowest home turn outs in the Tedford era and snapped a long streak of 50K plus with on 44K in attendance for a game with bowl implications.

The conference schedule features home games against USC, Utah, Washington State and Oregon State and brutal road schedule at Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State. The non-conference slate features a home game with Fresno State and a previously scheduled road game at Colorado, which will not count toward the conference record.

The Bears were 5-7 (3-6 Pac Ten) in 2010 and I expect the floor to drop out in 2011. Last year California ranked 19th on defense and 90th on offense under an “offensive genius” in Jeff Tedford.The poor outing/effort cost many coaches their position, including OC Andy Ludwig. I suspect Tedford would be safe even if California has a terrible season this year, but the heat would certainly be on in 2012.

California has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball heading into 2011. The quarterback position has been dreadful for the Bears of late and the offense lacks experienced talent in the backfield. It appears Buffalo transfer Maynard has beaten out Mansion at QB, for time being anyway. Mansion was dreadful in his four starts at the end of last season, so Maynard could provide a spark, but I’m skeptical. The skill players on the outside have the ability to be a top tier unit in the conference, but will need to solid play from the QB to reach this expectation. The offensive line looks to be back in form, after a couple of down years and should be the offenses bright spot, but that may not be saying much. The Bears should struggle on special teams as well and the offense should rank in the bottom third of the conference.

Defensively, the Bears front seven is questionable. I have some major concerns on the line, but think there is some talent in the line backing unit. How quickly, if at all, this unit gels could be the difference between a conference defensive ranking in the bottom third or cracking the top half of the conference. The secondary should be a very solid group and will need to deliver on these high expectations to compete with the top QB’s and passing games within the conference.

On paper, I align California closer to an Oregon State and Arizona, but only slightly ahead of UCLA, Colorado and Washington State while the gap between the top of the conference widens from the Bears perspective. Recruiting remains solid as Cal has put together back to back top 15 classes nationally IMO and was third within the conference in both 2010 and 2011. California may need some of this young talent to play, and play well immediately to compete in the ultra competitive Pac 12 in 2011.

The conference road schedule is brutal for the Bears and I just don’t give them a reasonable chance in any game, except the UCLA contest. At home, California faces USC, who I’m convinced they will never beat, and Oregon State, another team that has had their number. I don’t like the way it all lines for the Bears and think they will struggle to move the ball on offense, both in the air and on the ground. Throw in a questionable run defense, spotty special teams, a loaded conference and you could have a recipe for disaster.


Agree on the Bears. They will be lucky to repeat their 5-7 record from last season, Mark my words- Tedford OUT and Mike Leach IN.....
 

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1. Texas Tech Red Raiders
(Projected 4-8, 2-7)

Is there another team that has fallen so far so fast? Sure, Texas had their struggles last year, but I expect you will see improvement and they will be back on top quickly there is simply too much talent there. Leach had Tech as a perennial top 15-20 team and was starting to be mentioned in the same breath as Oklahoma and Texas. In fact, it seemed like a loss in Lubbock was expected by either of the big guns on their bi-annual trip. This team completely lacks any identity and anything to get excited about and is not close or even remotely close to the top of the conference. In fact, I don’t think they are close to the middle of the conference (Texas and Missouri).

The conference schedule features home games against Texas A&M, Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State, road trips to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri with a neutral site game against Baylor. The non-conference slate features a home game with Nevada and a road trip to New Mexico.

Texas Tech was 7-5 (3-5 Big 12) in 2010 and knocked off Northwestern in the bowl game. The Red Raiders were an abysmal 116th in defense, 67th versus the run and 120th versus the pass at over 308 YPG. The defense was atrocious last season and is primed for a repeat performance in 2011. Of course, they should improve on a 116th ranking, but not by a great deal. The defensive line is adequate, probably smack in the middle of the conference (which may not be saying much with mammoth divide in talent from the top to the bottom of the conference), but the line backers and secondary are extremely questionable. In fact, the Tech secondary is probably the worst in the conference by a sizable margin.

The offense is in transition, but still has a reasonable chance to perform at a high level. The offensive line is above average by conference standards and returns all five starters from 2010 and Tech has some talent in the backfield as they rely more on the running game. Tech’s passing game will be handed over to one of the inexperienced signal callers and the wide receiving corps will be completely rebuilt.

I like Tuberville as a coach and think he did a fine job at Auburn before getting shafted. In fact, I would take Tuberville over Chizik any day of the week. He just isn’t the right guy for the Tech job and it’s not a great fit for the school or the coach. I think Tuberville could implement his plans, whatever they may be, but it’s going to be a four-five year process and I’m not sure he would be awarded that time. He will be catching flack for the poor performance compared to the Leach era and recruiting may suffer if they fall to the bottom of the conference. It’s a double edged sword and likely will cost TT the job and only hurt the future prospects of the conference, as one of the four they need to step up goes down in flames.

Recruiting saw a big spike in 2011, where Tech had a top 20 class, compared to the 2010 class which barely cracked the top 50. The 2011 class only ranked behind the big two in 2011 after being out recruited by six teams within the conference, including Baylor, in 2010. If my rankings are accurate, the poor the 2010 class will hurt the Red Raiders on the field this year.

I rate the Red Raiders in line with the bottom four of the conference, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State. The gap between Tech and the big three in 2011 is immense. Even though Tech gets Oklahoma State and Texas A&M at home, I give them very little chance to win these games and the trip to Norman should be extremely ugly. Tech gets the middle of the conference Missouri and Texas on the road, which should play out to be two high probability losses and I expect Tech loses these games by double digits. I think they will do no better than split with the bottom, leaving them a two win conference season and likely ninth-tenth place conference finish.

The new look Big 12 is something of an enigma at this point and I think there is a high level of concern on their ability to remain a top flight BCS conference. If A&M and Oklahoma State fall back to more mediocre teams, say top 30-40, and this conference even gets a whiff on a one game conference schedule between Oklahoma and Texas the wheels likely fall off, IMO.

When and undefeated Texas or Oklahoma is passed up for various one loss SEC, Pac 12 or Big Ten teams the shockwave would destroy the Big 12. If Oklahoma and Texas are removed from serious title consideration on annual basis due to the weakness of their schedule/conference, how long do you thing the decision makers at these two powerhouses would continue their love affair with the Big 12? The Sooners always schedule at least one powerful non-conference game, but would they soon need two? What happens if the non-conference name power (Notre Dame on the upcoming schedule) has an off year?

This year, the conference is fine with three powerful teams and the ACC favorite Seminoles on Oklahoma’s schedule. Oklahoma and Texas likely need two from the group of Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri and/or Texas Tech to be not only good, but very good on an annual basis. If this can happen, I don’t see any immediate problems for the future success of the conference.

The SEC is the power, the new look Big Ten and Pac 12 are setting themselves up nicely and who knows what the Big East will look like with TCU and if the ACC can regain some form of power. Could the Big 12, if only a two team conference, be in danger of falling behind all the other BCS conferences? I think that might be a stretch, but I don’t doubt the conference would be considered well below the big three if the second tier Big 12 teams don’t remain top tier, nationally recognized teams. Oklahoma and Texas’s title chances are greatly diminished if they are annually hoping only one team from the big three conferences has a one loss season or better.

Lastly the conference as a whole will need to beef up the non-conference slate to keep on the national scene. Many teams in the conference schedule well, but a handful, especially lesser teams (Texas Tech and Kansas State) could help by playing and playing well against mid-level teams from some of the power conferences.

I have to disagree on Tech here. Their 2nd year in the Neal Brown offense and Doege should enter as a QB. The transition was not seamless for the Red Raiders last year but mostly because the offense is more or a west coast spread as compared to Leach's stretch the field spread. Potts/Sheffield were not great fits for the new offense but i think Doege will be. It should be a top offense in the country this season.

Defensively, they were extremely young and inexperienced in the secondary last season. The new DC employs a 4-2-5 which should play to Tech's strengths defensively, because the talent on that side of the ball lies in the secondary.

Dont get me wrong Tech is not winning the Big 12 and their schedule does not do them any favors. I think 4 wins is extremely low though and i would have Tech at 7-5 or 8-4....
 

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Just my takes. Texas Tech: You project them at 4-8, and 2-7 in conference. With non-on games against Texas State and nevada at home, and at New Mexico, which one of those games do they lose? I think that they can handle Kansas on the road. They certainly should be able to handle Iowa and Kansas State at home. I can see 6-6 or 7-5.

Cal: Tedford has been famous for his underachieveing teams. Last season, Cal needed just one win in their last three games (all at home), to clinch a bowl birth. They failed to get that win, even though they played against some decent teams (Oregon, Stanford, and Washington). With a new backfield in place this season, and only 5 starters returning on defense, Cal is not expected to do much going in. Still, 3-9 is a bit low. They should win all 3 of their non-con games. (The Cal game is a non-con game this season), and get past Washington State at home. They may even get past UCLA in Pasadena. I'll give them 4-5 wins.

I agree with you about Clemson. Even though they have a lot of starters returning, they have lost many of their key players. Last season, Clemson was 1-4 on the road. This season, they will be lucky to win one away game. Add a home loss to Florida State, and the BEST they can hope for is 6-6 and a minor bowl appearance. I am not impressed by Dabo. 7 losses last year for a team that was suppose to challenge for the ACC title is not the stuff that impresses me.

USC: We, on the West Coast, do not expect much out of USC this season. The first three games of the season will determine how far they go. If they start the season 3-0, then an 8-4 record certainly is possible. A lot is going to depend on what Monty Kiffin does with the defense, and how the offensive line matures. USC certainly has the horses to put points on the board. There is no shortage of skill players, but both lines, and the defense as a whole, must make drastic improvments, or USC may be in for a long year.
 

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Pablo, BigDaddy - thanks for the feedback

USC - I'm in the minority on this projection. I just can't back a team I saw quit at a collegic or professional level. I don't think this team is behind Kiffin and think he goes down as a huge bust at USC after the dust settles.

BD - I'm surprised you mention expectations aren't high, you would certainly know better than I being from the area, but I spend a good bit of time in California for work and have consistently heard 10-2, South champs, etc. Maybe homerism from the circles I encounter, but the feedback was clear - USC isn't on the level of Oregon or Stanford this year, but should beat everyone else. I got the impression, anything less than that would be viewed as a failure.

Cal - Pablo - I think Tedford survives past on his track record and strong recruiting, at least one more year. BD - I actually think Cal will lose the Colorado game. The Buffs have a big revenge spot, at home, against an inexperienced QB. I don't think Colorado is great/good, but they can be tricky at home sometimes. My biggest concern with Cal is Tedford pulling a 180 and being a coach who falls apart with talent and expectations, but pulls his team from the ashes with less talent and no expectations. I'm banking he's not the latter and will struggle even more with less talent.

Clemson - I'm nervous that so many people support my projection here, in fact, I seem to have a much greater success rate when people tell me I'm crazy and when the masses agree with me its a bust

TT - BD - I think Tech could easily lose the Kansas game, Tech is a terrible road team, the Jayhawks should improve and the game is early in the season. I think Tech is a mess and will struggle early, which is why I think Nevada could stun them as well, probably more of a stretch, but HC Ault usually has his teams up for big games. I know Nevada has lost a ton of talent, but they are well coached and run a solid scheme, which could give a team in transition issues.
 

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Barring being taken out by the Tennessee militia, I am nearly 100% convinced that Kiffin & Kiffin are setting their sights on 2012. Should Barkley still be around or if the next big name at QB end up with the offense, I can see where the strategy has been to defer scholarships until the year following this year sees the Trojans with just a couple or 3 scholarship "installment payments" remaining on their sanction debt. Their recruiting class seems to ingore need entirely unless you fast forward 2-3 years. nothing much for today or tomorrow.... of course with a few notable exceptions. But aside from all things USC has no offensive line this season, one of the worst in the conference.
 

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Barring being taken out by the Tennessee militia, I am nearly 100% convinced that Kiffin & Kiffin are setting their sights on 2012. Should Barkley still be around or if the next big name at QB end up with the offense, I can see where the strategy has been to defer scholarships until the year following this year sees the Trojans with just a couple or 3 scholarship "installment payments" remaining on their sanction debt. Their recruiting class seems to ingore need entirely unless you fast forward 2-3 years. nothing much for today or tomorrow.... of course with a few notable exceptions. But aside from all things USC has no offensive line this season, one of the worst in the conference.
I guess I am drinking the SC kool-aid. I think their defense gets much better in the second year under papa kiffin. They played a lot of players last year and they were very, young. The secondary should be vastly improved this year and LB play should be more physical at the point of attack. The DL will be more athletic. There was nothing wrong with the SC offense and as long as they keep Barkley upright, it will only get better. Their run game should be outstanding this year despite some youth on the OL. If they can find a PK who can make XP and short FGs this team will be in win the South division although they can't play in the PAC12 championship game.

I don't think Kiffin has lost his kids as evident by not many kids are transferring out of the program. And yes, 2012 with Barkley, they should be loaded for bear!!
 

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Pablo, BigDaddy - thanks for the feedback

USC - I'm in the minority on this projection. I just can't back a team I saw quit at a collegic or professional level. I don't think this team is behind Kiffin and think he goes down as a huge bust at USC after the dust settles.

BD - I'm surprised you mention expectations aren't high, you would certainly know better than I being from the area, but I spend a good bit of time in California for work and have consistently heard 10-2, South champs, etc. Maybe homerism from the circles I encounter, but the feedback was clear - USC isn't on the level of Oregon or Stanford this year, but should beat everyone else. I got the impression, anything less than that would be viewed as a failure.

Cal - Pablo - I think Tedford survives past on his track record and strong recruiting, at least one more year. BD - I actually think Cal will lose the Colorado game. The Buffs have a big revenge spot, at home, against an inexperienced QB. I don't think Colorado is great/good, but they can be tricky at home sometimes. My biggest concern with Cal is Tedford pulling a 180 and being a coach who falls apart with talent and expectations, but pulls his team from the ashes with less talent and no expectations. I'm banking he's not the latter and will struggle even more with less talent.

Clemson - I'm nervous that so many people support my projection here, in fact, I seem to have a much greater success rate when people tell me I'm crazy and when the masses agree with me its a bust

TT - BD - I think Tech could easily lose the Kansas game, Tech is a terrible road team, the Jayhawks should improve and the game is early in the season. I think Tech is a mess and will struggle early, which is why I think Nevada could stun them as well, probably more of a stretch, but HC Ault usually has his teams up for big games. I know Nevada has lost a ton of talent, but they are well coached and run a solid scheme, which could give a team in transition issues.


I will have to disagree about Tedford, still. I remember reading something which quoted the AD and i came away thinking that Tedford was on the hot seat, this was before last season 5-7 lay out. I guess we will see though, i personally think Cal can do better.

Dont sleep on Texas Tech either. Tuberville put a culture shock on that program and they should reap the benefits in year 2. Honestly, 6 wins is their minimum.
 

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As far as USC goes, here is my take. They lose three away games, at Arizona State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. They lose a home game to Stanford. That adds up to 4 losses. The key game for USC will be the home game in week 2 against Utah. Utha hosts Arizona State and avoids BOTH Oregon and Stanford on the schedule this season. A win against USC, and Utah is in the drivers seat for the Pac 12 South title. I certainly would not be surprised to see Utah pull an upset in that game. So USC finishing at 8-4 or 7-5 would not shock me, considering all of the other problems they have.

My take on Cal. Cal has been a major disappointment for several seasons now. They travel to Washington, Oregon (back to back) and Stanford and Arizona State (back to back to end the season). They also travel to UCLA, where they are 1-4 in their past 5 trips, and host USC, a team that they have not defeated since 2003 (0-7). They also travel to Colorado (a non-con game tis season) and host both Utah and Oregon State. I can easily see 6-7 losses for Cal, and that will not sit well with the alum.
 

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As far as USC goes, here is my take. They lose three away games, at Arizona State, Oregon, and Notre Dame. They lose a home game to Stanford. That adds up to 4 losses. The key game for USC will be the home game in week 2 against Utah. Utha hosts Arizona State and avoids BOTH Oregon and Stanford on the schedule this season. A win against USC, and Utah is in the drivers seat for the Pac 12 South title. I certainly would not be surprised to see Utah pull an upset in that game. So USC finishing at 8-4 or 7-5 would not shock me, considering all of the other problems they have.

My take on Cal. Cal has been a major disappointment for several seasons now. They travel to Washington, Oregon (back to back) and Stanford and Arizona State (back to back to end the season). They also travel to UCLA, where they are 1-4 in their past 5 trips, and host USC, a team that they have not defeated since 2003 (0-7). They also travel to Colorado (a non-con game tis season) and host both Utah and Oregon State. I can easily see 6-7 losses for Cal, and that will not sit well with the alum.

I agree on Utah completely....their schedule is so prime to win their division.

I will put USC at 8 wins
 

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