I can't disagree with you here. Somebody's got to be at the bottom. One thing I have learned is to never assume anything when it comes to non-conference games. Oregon St. plays Wisconsin early in the season. I'm not counting that one as an automatic loss. The Pac-10 seems to do well most of the time when they travel to the Big 10 locales.. ASU almost pulled it off last year. And we know what Oregon did to Michigan a few years ago. Plus Wisky is going through some changes with a new QB and all, so anything is liable to happen in that game. If the Beavers can pull off their non-coference schedule and get 3 wins out of it, they only need 3 more conference wins to become bowl eligbile. So right now I would call them a borderline team. But I can tell you from past experience that Riley is usually good for one or two wins they aren't suppose to have. So we'll see what happens....By the way good job your doing here..
They've recruited well and so far there have not been any defections as compared to this same point last year when they lost quite a few kids off the team that transferred out. That's the other thing about Ohio St that has gone unreported. If they get hammered, how many of those kids will jump to other programs especially if Prior and the others are still in the locker room
GS,
That's an excellent point regarding the Beavers non-conference schedule. Wisconsin has a tendency to start slow and struggle in early non-conference games. I think UNLV has given them a run on four separate occassions, Fresno State, Arizona and North Carolina in the past six or seven years along with the Sun Devils last season.
I'm having diffculty warpping my head around the Badgers for 2011. I expect a drop, but I'm just not sure how big of one. If Wisconsin starts slow as usual, has some issues breaking in a new QB - the Beavers could have a shot here. They would have the coaching advantage and advantage at QB. I suspect the Badger run game won't miss a beat and the Beavers look awfully soft up front, which could be the difference. If you can't slow down Wisconsin's run game your toast. However, if Katz can jump on a questionable Wisconsin secondary early the Badgers could be in trouble as they really aren't built to play catch up.
In terms of BYU, I'm probably higher on this team than anyone I've talked to, read or heard. If I'm overrating this team they may not have as good a chance as I'm giving to go to Corvallis and get the win. My 1-2 non-conference slate for Oregon State could be a 3-0, which would change their bowl chances a ton heading into conference play.
WinOne, Russ and GS -
You have some very valid points regarding USC. I don't question the talent, but I question this teams heart and mental make up. I never was a believer in Kiffin and I never felt this team got behind him. I know they lost some close games last year, but that is what typically happens with undisciplined teams who lack focus. I thought USC quit in a few games last year or simply lacked any intensity late in games, which gave the apperance of quitting.
They have still had very strong recruiting classes and if they turn the corner and are completely focused on the season and completely behind the coaching staff my projections will be well short. I just don't see it, I'm expecting more of the same in 2011 - a lack of focus, lack of discipline and inability to close out teams.
Barkley is the real deal and the defensive line may be the best in the conference, but I think the secondary is going to have their hands full with the passing attacks in the Pac 12.
You have some very valid points regarding USC. I don't question the talent, but I question this teams heart and mental make up. I never was a believer in Kiffin and I never felt this team got behind him. I know they lost some close games last year, but that is what typically happens with undisciplined teams who lack focus. I thought USC quit in a few games last year or simply lacked any intensity late in games, which gave the apperance of quitting.
They have still had very strong recruiting classes and if they turn the corner and are completely focused on the season and completely behind the coaching staff my projections will be well short. I just don't see it, I'm expecting more of the same in 2011 - a lack of focus, lack of discipline and inability to close out teams.
Barkley is the real deal and the defensive line may be the best in the conference, but I think the secondary is going to have their hands full with the passing attacks in the Pac 12.
6. Alabama-Birmingham Blazers
(Projected 2-10, 1-7)
This is certainly an odd selection for the list for a few reasons. First, it’s not as if UAB typically has lofty expectations and being a “lesser” team in conference USA probably puts them off a lot of peoples radar. However, this team has gotten some buzz as a possible surprise team that could win seven games, five conference games and go bowling.
I always conduct my team analysis before I do any schedule analysis and on the surface I can see why UAB may have caught a little hype, at least conference USA hype that is. They return an outstanding QB by conference standards, their all-purpose star RB and a talented trio of speedsters at the WR position. Throw in an offensive line that projects as top three unit in the conference, a couple of near wins at SEC opposition (Tennessee and Miss State) last season and you may a have bit more fire than smoke.
Once I dug into the Blazers schedule – I didn’t like what I saw. I think the situation and/or when you play your opponent in the season can be nearly as important as where you play them. I’m not simply talking about which month, etc, but what is the situation your opponent is off of, heading into, are they a lesser team that is starting to gain momentum and improve, a stronger team starting to slide and/or what is your own current situation, etc.
The Blazers conference schedule features home games against Tulane, UCF, Houston, and Southern Miss and road trips to East Carolina, Tulsa, Marshall and Memphis. The non-conference schedule has a home game against Mississippi State and road trips to Florida, Troy and Florida Atlantic.
I think conference USA has some a major talent divide - the big five Houston, SMU, Southern Miss, Tulsa and UCF followed by a distant second five in East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, UAB and UTEP. Memphis and Tulane are bringing up the rear at the bottom of the conference. Rather than a typical team review, let’s do a schedule review with this one.
UAB has to face four of the top five in the conference, but they do get three of those games at home. They only face two of the four teams I consider closely rated to themselves and have to play both on the road. They do have an opportunity to face both bottom feeders, but do have to play one of those games away from home.
9/3: They begin the season with a bye – which I hate, as UAB will play the next twelve consecutive weeks and face many conference opponents off a bye, heading into a bye or heading into a home game with one of the two bottom conference teams.
9/10: at Florida – This actually could be a decent spot to play on UAB, as Florida is off a game against Florida Atlantic (who I rate as the worst team in the FBS) and a likely enormous Florida rout. Maybe able to catch some fat in this one – TBD.
9/17: Tulane: Another potentially great spot for UAB, as I think it can be extremely beneficial to face “lesser” teams, who may improve as the season goes on, at home early in the season before they build any confidence or momentum. The line may not have any value if UAB covers the Florida game.
9/24: at East Carolina: The Pirates are off a bye and likely having their teeth kicked in by South Carolina and Virginia Tech to start the season. This is a great spot for East Carolina and pending the UAB start – the Blazers could actually be favored here.
10/1: at Troy: A very difficult place to play and Troy will be playing with revenge after a miraculous loss to UAB a season ago. Troy has this game sandwiched between two likely lesser Sun Belt teams and should be completely focused on the task at hand.
10/8: Mississippi State: This is a sandwich game for the Bulldogs following a trip to Georgia and preceding a home game versus South Carolina. I’m super high on Mississippi State and don’t think it will really matter in this contest, although UAB did give them a scare on the road a season ago.
10/15: at Tulsa: Tulsa is off a bye and will still be licking their wounds from a brutal early season schedule that features Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. This is a very tough, tough spot for UAB to walk into.
10/22: UCF: Many are predicting UCF to experience a drop off (I think it may be less than many expect) in 2011. UCF is off a critical game at SMU, but has lowly Memphis on tap at home. The outcome of the SMU-UCF game the previous week could affect the feel of this game.
10/29: at Marshall: The second, and only matchup against a team I rate equivalent to UAB. The Blazers will likely be off a physical game against UCF while Marshall heads off a road game against a finesse Houston team and has a bye on tap the following week.
11/5: Houston: UAB catches the Cougars of three straight home games, which should allow Houston to get healthy and climb the USA standings as all three games are winnable against East Carolina, Marshall and Rice. Once again, Houston has Tulane on tap the following week.
11/12: at Memphis: This, unlike the Tulane game, can be a tough time to catch the Tigers. Memphis should have shown steady improvement to this point in the season and is either A.) playing much better, but still losing B.) actually put some wins out there and gaining confidence. This is first of two consecutive winnable home games for the Tigers. “Lesser” teams rarely go winless and typically stun a “less than average” team when they get them at home late in the season.
11/17: Southern Miss: I’m high on Southern Miss and think this a tough spot for UAB, especially if they have struggled to this point. Once again, S Miss has a home game on tap against Memphis, but is off a huge home game with UCF.
11/26: at Florida Atlantic: Finally, what could be a good spot for UAB. If the Blazers walk in here with a terrible record they may be favored by much less than they should and could take their 2011 frustrations out on the hapless Owls.
For a team that could arguable considered the sixth best team in the conference on paper, a two win and 12th place conference season would be a disaster and the end of coach Callaway. Former Memphis HC West takes over the defense, but will have his work cut out for him as the Blazers have a ton of holes on the defensive front, especially on the line. The Blazers do have an outstanding secondary, by conference standards. Another thing to consider, for a team who may have six or seven potential close games – the Blazers should have dreadful special teams this season.
I’ll be curious to see if, what I consider, a brutal situational schedule does set this team spiraling out of control and if I can use this to my advantage in some spots to play on or likely against the Blazers.
(Projected 2-10, 1-7)
This is certainly an odd selection for the list for a few reasons. First, it’s not as if UAB typically has lofty expectations and being a “lesser” team in conference USA probably puts them off a lot of peoples radar. However, this team has gotten some buzz as a possible surprise team that could win seven games, five conference games and go bowling.
I always conduct my team analysis before I do any schedule analysis and on the surface I can see why UAB may have caught a little hype, at least conference USA hype that is. They return an outstanding QB by conference standards, their all-purpose star RB and a talented trio of speedsters at the WR position. Throw in an offensive line that projects as top three unit in the conference, a couple of near wins at SEC opposition (Tennessee and Miss State) last season and you may a have bit more fire than smoke.
Once I dug into the Blazers schedule – I didn’t like what I saw. I think the situation and/or when you play your opponent in the season can be nearly as important as where you play them. I’m not simply talking about which month, etc, but what is the situation your opponent is off of, heading into, are they a lesser team that is starting to gain momentum and improve, a stronger team starting to slide and/or what is your own current situation, etc.
The Blazers conference schedule features home games against Tulane, UCF, Houston, and Southern Miss and road trips to East Carolina, Tulsa, Marshall and Memphis. The non-conference schedule has a home game against Mississippi State and road trips to Florida, Troy and Florida Atlantic.
I think conference USA has some a major talent divide - the big five Houston, SMU, Southern Miss, Tulsa and UCF followed by a distant second five in East Carolina, Marshall, Rice, UAB and UTEP. Memphis and Tulane are bringing up the rear at the bottom of the conference. Rather than a typical team review, let’s do a schedule review with this one.
UAB has to face four of the top five in the conference, but they do get three of those games at home. They only face two of the four teams I consider closely rated to themselves and have to play both on the road. They do have an opportunity to face both bottom feeders, but do have to play one of those games away from home.
9/3: They begin the season with a bye – which I hate, as UAB will play the next twelve consecutive weeks and face many conference opponents off a bye, heading into a bye or heading into a home game with one of the two bottom conference teams.
9/10: at Florida – This actually could be a decent spot to play on UAB, as Florida is off a game against Florida Atlantic (who I rate as the worst team in the FBS) and a likely enormous Florida rout. Maybe able to catch some fat in this one – TBD.
9/17: Tulane: Another potentially great spot for UAB, as I think it can be extremely beneficial to face “lesser” teams, who may improve as the season goes on, at home early in the season before they build any confidence or momentum. The line may not have any value if UAB covers the Florida game.
9/24: at East Carolina: The Pirates are off a bye and likely having their teeth kicked in by South Carolina and Virginia Tech to start the season. This is a great spot for East Carolina and pending the UAB start – the Blazers could actually be favored here.
10/1: at Troy: A very difficult place to play and Troy will be playing with revenge after a miraculous loss to UAB a season ago. Troy has this game sandwiched between two likely lesser Sun Belt teams and should be completely focused on the task at hand.
10/8: Mississippi State: This is a sandwich game for the Bulldogs following a trip to Georgia and preceding a home game versus South Carolina. I’m super high on Mississippi State and don’t think it will really matter in this contest, although UAB did give them a scare on the road a season ago.
10/15: at Tulsa: Tulsa is off a bye and will still be licking their wounds from a brutal early season schedule that features Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State. This is a very tough, tough spot for UAB to walk into.
10/22: UCF: Many are predicting UCF to experience a drop off (I think it may be less than many expect) in 2011. UCF is off a critical game at SMU, but has lowly Memphis on tap at home. The outcome of the SMU-UCF game the previous week could affect the feel of this game.
10/29: at Marshall: The second, and only matchup against a team I rate equivalent to UAB. The Blazers will likely be off a physical game against UCF while Marshall heads off a road game against a finesse Houston team and has a bye on tap the following week.
11/5: Houston: UAB catches the Cougars of three straight home games, which should allow Houston to get healthy and climb the USA standings as all three games are winnable against East Carolina, Marshall and Rice. Once again, Houston has Tulane on tap the following week.
11/12: at Memphis: This, unlike the Tulane game, can be a tough time to catch the Tigers. Memphis should have shown steady improvement to this point in the season and is either A.) playing much better, but still losing B.) actually put some wins out there and gaining confidence. This is first of two consecutive winnable home games for the Tigers. “Lesser” teams rarely go winless and typically stun a “less than average” team when they get them at home late in the season.
11/17: Southern Miss: I’m high on Southern Miss and think this a tough spot for UAB, especially if they have struggled to this point. Once again, S Miss has a home game on tap against Memphis, but is off a huge home game with UCF.
11/26: at Florida Atlantic: Finally, what could be a good spot for UAB. If the Blazers walk in here with a terrible record they may be favored by much less than they should and could take their 2011 frustrations out on the hapless Owls.
For a team that could arguable considered the sixth best team in the conference on paper, a two win and 12th place conference season would be a disaster and the end of coach Callaway. Former Memphis HC West takes over the defense, but will have his work cut out for him as the Blazers have a ton of holes on the defensive front, especially on the line. The Blazers do have an outstanding secondary, by conference standards. Another thing to consider, for a team who may have six or seven potential close games – the Blazers should have dreadful special teams this season.
I’ll be curious to see if, what I consider, a brutal situational schedule does set this team spiraling out of control and if I can use this to my advantage in some spots to play on or likely against the Blazers.
5. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
(Projected 4-8, 1-7)
Georgia Tech has been on a decline of late and this pattern should continue into 2011. HC Johnson has his work cut out for him this season. Many will argue that Johnson’s system is of the plug and play variety, but seasoned athletes are more needed in an improving ACC compared to his days at Navy.
Tech faces a conference schedule that includes home games against North Carolina, Maryland, Clemson and Virginia Tech and road games at North Carolina State, Virginia, Miami and Duke. The non-conference schedule features home games against Kansas and Georgia and a road trip to Middle Tennessee.
The Yellow Jackets were 6-6 (4-4 ACC) in 2010 and lost to Air Force in the bowl game. Last year Tech ranked 34th in offense and 68th on defense. The offense loses a lot of the seasoned talent from the last few seasons and will be working in plenty of new pieces. The main question will be if the new QB and skill players can have an instant impact on the field. The offensive line is an average group compared to the other teams within the conference.
Tech’s defense is also going through a lot of transition and will likely struggle again this season. The defensive line has talent and athletic ability and could have an opportunity to crack the top third of the conference. There are plenty of holes in the line backing corps and secondary and I project these units to be near the bottom of the conference.
Recruiting has been consistent over the past few years, but has lagged their peer competitors within the conference. I rate Tech eight-ninth within the ACC for 2010 and 2011. Recruiting can be a tricky thing to rate with a non-standard offense, such as the system run by Johnson.
The Jackets need the offense to click early in the season, which may be a lot to ask with all of the transition. The defense will have its hands full with the improving talent in the conference. While I expect Tech and Clemson to slip a bit, Florida State appears to be the ACC’s first national title contender in years, Virginia Tech will be solid and plays a very manageable schedule, Maryland and NC State are teams I think could surprise in 2011, Miami and BC will be tough and the bottom teams Duke, Virginia and Wake are improving.
I rate Georgia Tech closer to the bottom of the conference with Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia than to the next tier of teams in Boston College, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina. Tech only plays two of three teams I rate on par with them and play both away from home. The home conference schedule is brutal and I just don’t see a lot of wins on the horizon for the Yellow Jackets in 2011. I only have four of the conference games rated as a reasonable chance to win and I think GT is 1-3 in those games and will be seriously outgunned in the other four conference games, which I rate as high probability losses.
Maybe Johnson can work his magic and plug and play against this level of competition, but I’m leaning on the side of this team dropping as many within the conference are rising. The offenses should improve as the season wares on, but the defense has a lot of holes, especially against the pass. I don’t see those problems being fixed all season.
(Projected 4-8, 1-7)
Georgia Tech has been on a decline of late and this pattern should continue into 2011. HC Johnson has his work cut out for him this season. Many will argue that Johnson’s system is of the plug and play variety, but seasoned athletes are more needed in an improving ACC compared to his days at Navy.
Tech faces a conference schedule that includes home games against North Carolina, Maryland, Clemson and Virginia Tech and road games at North Carolina State, Virginia, Miami and Duke. The non-conference schedule features home games against Kansas and Georgia and a road trip to Middle Tennessee.
The Yellow Jackets were 6-6 (4-4 ACC) in 2010 and lost to Air Force in the bowl game. Last year Tech ranked 34th in offense and 68th on defense. The offense loses a lot of the seasoned talent from the last few seasons and will be working in plenty of new pieces. The main question will be if the new QB and skill players can have an instant impact on the field. The offensive line is an average group compared to the other teams within the conference.
Tech’s defense is also going through a lot of transition and will likely struggle again this season. The defensive line has talent and athletic ability and could have an opportunity to crack the top third of the conference. There are plenty of holes in the line backing corps and secondary and I project these units to be near the bottom of the conference.
Recruiting has been consistent over the past few years, but has lagged their peer competitors within the conference. I rate Tech eight-ninth within the ACC for 2010 and 2011. Recruiting can be a tricky thing to rate with a non-standard offense, such as the system run by Johnson.
The Jackets need the offense to click early in the season, which may be a lot to ask with all of the transition. The defense will have its hands full with the improving talent in the conference. While I expect Tech and Clemson to slip a bit, Florida State appears to be the ACC’s first national title contender in years, Virginia Tech will be solid and plays a very manageable schedule, Maryland and NC State are teams I think could surprise in 2011, Miami and BC will be tough and the bottom teams Duke, Virginia and Wake are improving.
I rate Georgia Tech closer to the bottom of the conference with Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia than to the next tier of teams in Boston College, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina. Tech only plays two of three teams I rate on par with them and play both away from home. The home conference schedule is brutal and I just don’t see a lot of wins on the horizon for the Yellow Jackets in 2011. I only have four of the conference games rated as a reasonable chance to win and I think GT is 1-3 in those games and will be seriously outgunned in the other four conference games, which I rate as high probability losses.
Maybe Johnson can work his magic and plug and play against this level of competition, but I’m leaning on the side of this team dropping as many within the conference are rising. The offenses should improve as the season wares on, but the defense has a lot of holes, especially against the pass. I don’t see those problems being fixed all season.
4. West Virginia Mountaineers
(Projected 9-3, 5-2)
The Mountaineers have the top record on the list with nine wins, which I felt was a strong season for West Virginia as I went through my off-season analysis. To my surprise, within the last couple months there has been plenty of talk of West Virginia being a national title contender, having a one game schedule and representing the best value play to win the title.
I must have a different definition of value than some of these supposed experts. In the Stewart era, the Mountaineers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country and I see no reason this season will be any different, sure they hired Holgorsen, which was a great hire in my opinion, but his greatest impact will be in 2012. West Virginia has the talent to play with nearly anyone, especially at home, but a tendency to follow up a great performance with a clunker and play down to their opposition. Mountaineer Field is one of the most difficult venues to play, but I think Stewart is just a bonehead and holds this program back.
The conference schedule features home games against Connecticut, Louisville and Pittsburgh and road games at Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati and South Florida. The non-conference schedule features home games against Marshall, LSU and Bowling Green and a road trip to Maryland.
West Virginia was 9-3 (5-2 Big East) in 2010 and was walloped by NC State in the bowl game. Last year the Mountaineers ranked 3rd on defense and 64th on offense. The defense was very sound last season, but didn’t face many, if any, offensive juggernauts. The rushing defense ranked second in the nation at 85.1 yards per game and the pass defense ranked 11th at 165.3 yards per game. On the eye test, the rushing defense was legitimately good, but I don’t think the Mountaineers were any were near a top 25 pass defense and felt the lack of dangerous passing attacks they faced inflated those numbers. This season, I have major concerns with the front seven and how this unit will deal with some major losses in talent and how far they will drop against the run. I think the secondary will continue to improve and I like the talent that West Virginia possesses in this area.
The Mountaineers offense wasn’t anything special last season and Smith will need to improve if they are going to compete for the Big East title, let alone the national title. There is talent on the outside and West Virginia has an outstanding offensive line, possibly the best in the conference, and there is no reason the Mountaineers should have the 67th ranked passing attack. I still believe Smith struggles to read coverage and better/more complex defenses have been able to goat him into mistakes/miss-reads. At face value a 64.8% completion percentage and a 24-7 ratio looks great. However, he tends to make fundamental mistakes IMO and misses open receivers, open reads, etc. Another area I see as a concern for WV will be on special teams, where I think this unit could be one of the conferences worst and that is never a good sign for a team competing for a conference title.
West Virginia had an outstanding 2010 recruiting class and finished in the top 20 by my rankings. The 2011 class was less than desirable and the Mountaineers fell outside of the top 50 in my rankings. There was no doubt they had the conferences top class in 2010, but I rated four Big East school ahead of them in 2011.
I rate West Virginia as the class of the Big East, but not by a great margin. I think Pittsburgh, Connecticut and South Florida are within striking distance and teams like Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse are improving. For anyone to think West Virginia has a one game schedule and is a shoe-in to win the Big East is beyond me. I think it will be an odd year for the Mountaineers where they knock off LSU and rival Pittsburgh, but still lose three games and fail to win the conference.
I think the Mountaineers could get caught looking ahead to LSU the preceding week at, what I consider, a dangerous Maryland team and the late season road trip to South Florida, which has been a house of horrors for the Mountaineers, could be a pitfall. Throw in a Stewart/Smith special against one of the “lesser” Big East teams and you have a three loss season. I do like the Mountaineers to win a bowl game this year, but it won’t be a BCS bowl, let alone the national title.
I’ll be curious how the 2012 Mountaineers under Holgorsen, look in the new Big East with TCU coming town. I’m astonished how many people seem to think TCU will simply walk in and dominate the Big East, in fact, I highly doubt it. West Virginia should be strong, Pittsburgh coming under Graham’s second season and possible continued surges by South Florida, Louisville and Syracuse. The attrition of playing in a major conference will affect TCU, I’m sure of it. No big game, followed by three weeks of tune up games until the next big game. I’m also certain the existing Big East teams are sick of hearing about TCU dominating the conference and will surely be ready to welcome the Horned Frogs to a major division.
(Projected 9-3, 5-2)
The Mountaineers have the top record on the list with nine wins, which I felt was a strong season for West Virginia as I went through my off-season analysis. To my surprise, within the last couple months there has been plenty of talk of West Virginia being a national title contender, having a one game schedule and representing the best value play to win the title.
I must have a different definition of value than some of these supposed experts. In the Stewart era, the Mountaineers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country and I see no reason this season will be any different, sure they hired Holgorsen, which was a great hire in my opinion, but his greatest impact will be in 2012. West Virginia has the talent to play with nearly anyone, especially at home, but a tendency to follow up a great performance with a clunker and play down to their opposition. Mountaineer Field is one of the most difficult venues to play, but I think Stewart is just a bonehead and holds this program back.
The conference schedule features home games against Connecticut, Louisville and Pittsburgh and road games at Syracuse, Rutgers, Cincinnati and South Florida. The non-conference schedule features home games against Marshall, LSU and Bowling Green and a road trip to Maryland.
West Virginia was 9-3 (5-2 Big East) in 2010 and was walloped by NC State in the bowl game. Last year the Mountaineers ranked 3rd on defense and 64th on offense. The defense was very sound last season, but didn’t face many, if any, offensive juggernauts. The rushing defense ranked second in the nation at 85.1 yards per game and the pass defense ranked 11th at 165.3 yards per game. On the eye test, the rushing defense was legitimately good, but I don’t think the Mountaineers were any were near a top 25 pass defense and felt the lack of dangerous passing attacks they faced inflated those numbers. This season, I have major concerns with the front seven and how this unit will deal with some major losses in talent and how far they will drop against the run. I think the secondary will continue to improve and I like the talent that West Virginia possesses in this area.
The Mountaineers offense wasn’t anything special last season and Smith will need to improve if they are going to compete for the Big East title, let alone the national title. There is talent on the outside and West Virginia has an outstanding offensive line, possibly the best in the conference, and there is no reason the Mountaineers should have the 67th ranked passing attack. I still believe Smith struggles to read coverage and better/more complex defenses have been able to goat him into mistakes/miss-reads. At face value a 64.8% completion percentage and a 24-7 ratio looks great. However, he tends to make fundamental mistakes IMO and misses open receivers, open reads, etc. Another area I see as a concern for WV will be on special teams, where I think this unit could be one of the conferences worst and that is never a good sign for a team competing for a conference title.
West Virginia had an outstanding 2010 recruiting class and finished in the top 20 by my rankings. The 2011 class was less than desirable and the Mountaineers fell outside of the top 50 in my rankings. There was no doubt they had the conferences top class in 2010, but I rated four Big East school ahead of them in 2011.
I rate West Virginia as the class of the Big East, but not by a great margin. I think Pittsburgh, Connecticut and South Florida are within striking distance and teams like Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse are improving. For anyone to think West Virginia has a one game schedule and is a shoe-in to win the Big East is beyond me. I think it will be an odd year for the Mountaineers where they knock off LSU and rival Pittsburgh, but still lose three games and fail to win the conference.
I think the Mountaineers could get caught looking ahead to LSU the preceding week at, what I consider, a dangerous Maryland team and the late season road trip to South Florida, which has been a house of horrors for the Mountaineers, could be a pitfall. Throw in a Stewart/Smith special against one of the “lesser” Big East teams and you have a three loss season. I do like the Mountaineers to win a bowl game this year, but it won’t be a BCS bowl, let alone the national title.
I’ll be curious how the 2012 Mountaineers under Holgorsen, look in the new Big East with TCU coming town. I’m astonished how many people seem to think TCU will simply walk in and dominate the Big East, in fact, I highly doubt it. West Virginia should be strong, Pittsburgh coming under Graham’s second season and possible continued surges by South Florida, Louisville and Syracuse. The attrition of playing in a major conference will affect TCU, I’m sure of it. No big game, followed by three weeks of tune up games until the next big game. I’m also certain the existing Big East teams are sick of hearing about TCU dominating the conference and will surely be ready to welcome the Horned Frogs to a major division.
I seriously doubt that TCU walks in and takes over the Big East. There's a big difference in playing the BCS schools week in and week out and playing the Wyoming's and CSU's. Depth will be a concern if the injuries start piling up. Plus it's never easy playing on the road a long ways from home.
From what I read they are keeping the same rule on tiebreakers. http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/42731/no-new-look-on-the-way-for-big-12
considering what the Big East has to offer, TCU wont exactly suffer either. They arent going to skate to 49-0 wins but they know what it takes to beat the big boys and they shouldnt have many issues in travel, especially not having to deal with as many high altitude places like the MWC (I pulled that info out of my ass based on my mediocre knowledge of geography). The Big East might be a BCS conference but they rarely put out TOP QUALITY teams. Outside of some good Cincy teams, the BE barely deserved a BCS invite....
That was mainly assumption on my part. But one thing we know for sure is TCU won't be playing a half a dozen 49-0 games. The first units will more than likely be playing 60 minutes of football just about every week. So there will be an adjustment period for TCU from the norm. And none of us armchair experts are going to know for sure how big of an adjustment it is going to be. But I am going to enjoy watching college football more this season with these new teams joining conferences and having to adjust to each other's brand of football. It will make for some interesting handicapping.
3. California Golden Bears
(Projected 3-9, 1-8)
This would be a rather dramatic fall for the Bears if my projection is accurate. Tedford just hasn’t gotten the job done at California in the last few years, especially based on the talent he has had at Berkeley. The talent has dipped IMO and the new and powerful Pac 12 may send Cal to the bottom of the conference. The Bears closed last season with three straight losses, all at home, and saw attendance sharply decrease. The final game of the season was one of the lowest home turn outs in the Tedford era and snapped a long streak of 50K plus with on 44K in attendance for a game with bowl implications.
The conference schedule features home games against USC, Utah, Washington State and Oregon State and brutal road schedule at Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State. The non-conference slate features a home game with Fresno State and a previously scheduled road game at Colorado, which will not count toward the conference record.
The Bears were 5-7 (3-6 Pac Ten) in 2010 and I expect the floor to drop out in 2011. Last year California ranked 19th on defense and 90th on offense under an “offensive genius” in Jeff Tedford.The poor outing/effort cost many coaches their position, including OC Andy Ludwig. I suspect Tedford would be safe even if California has a terrible season this year, but the heat would certainly be on in 2012.
California has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball heading into 2011. The quarterback position has been dreadful for the Bears of late and the offense lacks experienced talent in the backfield. It appears Buffalo transfer Maynard has beaten out Mansion at QB, for time being anyway. Mansion was dreadful in his four starts at the end of last season, so Maynard could provide a spark, but I’m skeptical. The skill players on the outside have the ability to be a top tier unit in the conference, but will need to solid play from the QB to reach this expectation. The offensive line looks to be back in form, after a couple of down years and should be the offenses bright spot, but that may not be saying much. The Bears should struggle on special teams as well and the offense should rank in the bottom third of the conference.
Defensively, the Bears front seven is questionable. I have some major concerns on the line, but think there is some talent in the line backing unit. How quickly, if at all, this unit gels could be the difference between a conference defensive ranking in the bottom third or cracking the top half of the conference. The secondary should be a very solid group and will need to deliver on these high expectations to compete with the top QB’s and passing games within the conference.
On paper, I align California closer to an Oregon State and Arizona, but only slightly ahead of UCLA, Colorado and Washington State while the gap between the top of the conference widens from the Bears perspective. Recruiting remains solid as Cal has put together back to back top 15 classes nationally IMO and was third within the conference in both 2010 and 2011. California may need some of this young talent to play, and play well immediately to compete in the ultra competitive Pac 12 in 2011.
The conference road schedule is brutal for the Bears and I just don’t give them a reasonable chance in any game, except the UCLA contest. At home, California faces USC, who I’m convinced they will never beat, and Oregon State, another team that has had their number. I don’t like the way it all lines for the Bears and think they will struggle to move the ball on offense, both in the air and on the ground. Throw in a questionable run defense, spotty special teams, a loaded conference and you could have a recipe for disaster.
(Projected 3-9, 1-8)
This would be a rather dramatic fall for the Bears if my projection is accurate. Tedford just hasn’t gotten the job done at California in the last few years, especially based on the talent he has had at Berkeley. The talent has dipped IMO and the new and powerful Pac 12 may send Cal to the bottom of the conference. The Bears closed last season with three straight losses, all at home, and saw attendance sharply decrease. The final game of the season was one of the lowest home turn outs in the Tedford era and snapped a long streak of 50K plus with on 44K in attendance for a game with bowl implications.
The conference schedule features home games against USC, Utah, Washington State and Oregon State and brutal road schedule at Washington, Oregon, UCLA, Stanford and Arizona State. The non-conference slate features a home game with Fresno State and a previously scheduled road game at Colorado, which will not count toward the conference record.
The Bears were 5-7 (3-6 Pac Ten) in 2010 and I expect the floor to drop out in 2011. Last year California ranked 19th on defense and 90th on offense under an “offensive genius” in Jeff Tedford.The poor outing/effort cost many coaches their position, including OC Andy Ludwig. I suspect Tedford would be safe even if California has a terrible season this year, but the heat would certainly be on in 2012.
California has a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball heading into 2011. The quarterback position has been dreadful for the Bears of late and the offense lacks experienced talent in the backfield. It appears Buffalo transfer Maynard has beaten out Mansion at QB, for time being anyway. Mansion was dreadful in his four starts at the end of last season, so Maynard could provide a spark, but I’m skeptical. The skill players on the outside have the ability to be a top tier unit in the conference, but will need to solid play from the QB to reach this expectation. The offensive line looks to be back in form, after a couple of down years and should be the offenses bright spot, but that may not be saying much. The Bears should struggle on special teams as well and the offense should rank in the bottom third of the conference.
Defensively, the Bears front seven is questionable. I have some major concerns on the line, but think there is some talent in the line backing unit. How quickly, if at all, this unit gels could be the difference between a conference defensive ranking in the bottom third or cracking the top half of the conference. The secondary should be a very solid group and will need to deliver on these high expectations to compete with the top QB’s and passing games within the conference.
On paper, I align California closer to an Oregon State and Arizona, but only slightly ahead of UCLA, Colorado and Washington State while the gap between the top of the conference widens from the Bears perspective. Recruiting remains solid as Cal has put together back to back top 15 classes nationally IMO and was third within the conference in both 2010 and 2011. California may need some of this young talent to play, and play well immediately to compete in the ultra competitive Pac 12 in 2011.
The conference road schedule is brutal for the Bears and I just don’t give them a reasonable chance in any game, except the UCLA contest. At home, California faces USC, who I’m convinced they will never beat, and Oregon State, another team that has had their number. I don’t like the way it all lines for the Bears and think they will struggle to move the ball on offense, both in the air and on the ground. Throw in a questionable run defense, spotty special teams, a loaded conference and you could have a recipe for disaster.
The CAL defense should be really, really good. They also have some receivers that will rival the best of those in the PAC12. But they need to find a QB and a go to RB. Tedford, to his credit, and pulled out great seasons when nothing has been expected of him. This team will be led by their defense and it may end up being one of the better ones in the PAC12.
WinOne -
Really, really good seems like a stretch IMO, but the young talent is certainly there. The secondary should be excellent, especially the corners Williams and Anthony, but if the front seven struggles to stop the run and create pressure on the QB it will only make thier jods more difficult.
The LB's are talented, but I have my concerns with them moving Kendricks inside. I've seen many a talented OLB move inside a loss a little luster, if he adjusts to his new position quickly this unit we be better earlier in the season than I exoect. My biggest concern is on the DL, where I think Cal may be a bit soft, especially inside. A lot of guys will be playing reps than they are accustomed to a will need to elevate thier game. Cal has done an excellent job recruiting and I'll be curious if any of the young talent makes a larger contribution than I expect this early in thier carrer, like Moala. In addition, if the offense struggles it will place even more pressure on the defense.
I agree with you on the WR's, they have talent, speed and athleticism on the outside, but Maynard will be the key. Can he step right in and perform at a high level, maybe, but I doubt it. He is the wild card IMO.
