Eleven Teams That Will Disappoint in 2011

[ERockMoney]

11. Florida Gators
(Projected 7-5, 3-5)

Florida begins the Will Muschamp era in 2011, as the former Texas DC takes the reins from HC Meyer and looks to put the Gators back on top.

The Gators face a brutal SEC schedule that includes road trips to Kentucky, LSU, Auburn and South Carolina, Georgia on a neutral site and home games with Tennessee, Alabama and Vanderbilt. The non-conference slate brings inter-state rivals Florida St. into Gainesville to close the regular season.

Florida is off a 7-5 regular season (4-4 SEC) and bowl victory over Penn State. The Gators had the nations ninth ranked defense and 77th ranked offense. Florida is loaded defensively and I project them to have the conferences third best defense, in the defense heavy SEC. My analysis has the Gators in the top four within the conference across the defensive line and line backing corps. The secondary features a lot of transition, but has plenty of athletic ability and should improve as the season moves along.

The offense has a lot of question marks and could be the teams Achilles heel again in 2010. Brantley needs to be more efficient and limit mistakes. The Gators averaged less than 200 yards passing last season and were the 90th rated passing offense. Florida doesn’t need to light up the air to compete as long as they can run the ball effectively and rely on their excellent defense. However, they must improve in the passing game from the dismal numbers in 2010. As usual, Florida projects to have outstanding special teams and should finish in the top three of the conference, at a minimum.

Recruiting slipped a bit in 2011, following the conference best recruiting class in 2010. The 2010 class should begin to pay greater dividends this season entering their second years. I projected Florida with the conferences eighth strongest recruiting class in 2011.

The Gators need more consistency from the QB position and their skill players to develop into game changers. The offensive line has some questions heading into the 2011 season and will need to gel quickly if they intend to compete with the talented defensive fronts across the SEC.

I rate the Gators on par with division rivals Georgia and South Carolina, but the SEC Eastern division doesn’t stack up to the powerhouse Western division. I rate every Western divisional team, except Mississippi, ahead of the entire Eastern division.

I project the Gators to have a 7-5 season, which through my analysis is a fine record based on the difficult schedule and transition taking place in Gainesville, but they make the list because ten losses in two seasons and a losing SEC record is quite a change from the dominance Florida showed in the previous seasons. There was a time in the recent past it didn’t look like Florida would lose ten games in ten years, so is life in the ever changing world of college football.

The Gator nation can take some solace in the fact that I expect them to beat, as usual, rival and projected 2011 SEC Eastern champion Georgia and in-state rival Florida State, ending their slim hopes as a potential one loss title participant. Muschamp was the correct hire IMO and the Gators will begin to take shape near the end of the season as the team gels and works out the expected transitional issues early in the season. Closing the season with wins over Georgia and the Seminoles with a likely win in the Birmingham or Liberty bowl should position Florida well heading into 2012.

 

[russ1945]

Two years ago I took more slack than I ever imagined when I challenged the Florida fans that they were not on their way to a dynasty. It was not pretty. Needless to say they slipped as players like Harvin and Tebow just can't be replaced that easily. I predicted last years mediocre season and I felt all along something was wrong in Gainesville. Urban Meyer lost two key coordinators to head coaching jobs and never developed a rapport with their replacements. I can't believe I am going to do this but I am going to defend the 2011 Gators.

Love the new HC but just as much I love the new coordinators. New OC Charlie Weis for starters with nothing to do except what he does best, call plays. DC Dan Quinn brings 10 yrs of NFL experience and will have an immediate impact on a defense that ranked #29 last year despite everything. Weis will revamp the offense and simply out coach some opposing DC's. There is talent in Gainesville but now they will begin to develop talent. They went 8-5 last year and will be better in 2011. Other than Alabama and LSU there is no one on their schedule they can't compete with. I can see them opening with 4 wins and closing with 5 wins based on this years schedule. I can't believe I am standing up for the Gators but I have the strength of my convictions and they always win out in the end. I like Florida to win 9 games in 2011. I like what Muschamp has assembled in the way of asst coaches, I like the talent, and I think the schedule is doable. No one was down on the Gators more than me the past two seasons so this does not come easy believe me.

 

[CoachCB]

Russ, unless John Brantley makes SIGNIFICANT improvements (or they bench him) the O will struggle all year....and if they bench him a true freshman will be forced into action. Either way: not good.

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[ERockMoney]

10. USC Trojans
(Projected 6-6, 4-5)

Much like the Gators at number 11, the Trojans are no longer able to simply dominate their opponents and have suffered a fall from grace. Unlike the Gators, they are not transitioning to a new sought after coach with the hope of righting the ship and questions are abound regarding HC Kiffin.

Kiffin has his hands full in the new look Pac 12 and faces a difficult conference schedule which features road trips to Arizona State, California, Colorado and Oregon and home games versus Utah, Arizona, Stanford, Washington and UCLA. The non conference slate features home games with Minnesota and Syracuse and a road trip to Notre Dame.

USC is off an 8-5 regular season (5-4 Pac 10) and the first year of their post-season ban. The Trojans had the nations 28th ranked offense and 83rd ranked offense. USC performed very uncharacteristically last season on the defensive side of the ball and although I expect improved numbers in 2011 they should still suffer in the offensive heavy Pac 12. Barkley is the real deal, but the Trojans desperately need some of these highly ranked recruits at the skill positions to quickly become the impact players we are accustomed to seeing at USC. The stable of runners in the backfield has promise and we could see a star emerge here, but the players on the outside need to improve. The offensive line has some holes and should suffer through a transition period early in 2011. I suspect the Trojans will struggle to rank in the upper half of the conference offensively with all the talent the Pac 12 has on that side of the ball.

The defense should improve, especially across the defensive line where this unit has a chance to be the conferences best. USC has plenty of talent up front and are deep and athletic on the line. The line backing unit and secondary must improve for the Trojans to compete on a week in and week out basis within the conference. I have my doubts regarding the defensive backfield, especially considering the talent at the quarterback position they will be facing almost on a weekly basis.

Recruiting hasn’t suffered the way many would have expected with the turmoil the past few years. USC has a wealth of young talent and if they develop faster than expected it could change the entire outlook for 2011. IMO, USC clearly had the best recruiting class in the conference the last two years.

The Trojans need to regain their swagger on the defensive side of the ball and cut down on mental mistakes and play a more disciplined game on both sides of the ball. The secondary and offensive line are serious concerns and must gel and/or improve early or these units will struggle mightily against the top competition on the schedule. I see this unit falling into the middle of the conference in terms of production.

The gap between USC and the conferences two powerhouses, Oregon and Stanford, is immense. I rate USC on par with Arizona and Utah within the conference, a notch below Arizona State and Washington and severely trailing the Ducks and Cardinal.

I project the Trojans to have a 6-6 season, which just doesn’t fly at USC. If my projection is accurate, I would be curious what, if anything becomes of Kiffin. The USC brass, alumni and media would have a field day with these types of results, which would be compounded if they are soundly beaten by the conferences top dogs, a former assistant coach and the Pac 12 places another representative in the title game – all of which are real possibilities.

I think the Trojans will be competitive in nearly all of their games, with the possible exception of the trip to Autzen, but I still see the losses piling up. Teams that lack discipline typically struggle to win close games and I’m not certain Kiffin has truly “reached” this team.

 

[russ1945]

Russ, unless John Brantley makes SIGNIFICANT improvements (or they bench him) the O will struggle all year....and if they bench him a true freshman will be forced into action. Either way: not good.

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I know I am against the grain on this one but I think Weis will make the offense work. I think the defense could improve also. Weis was not much as a HC but as an OC he is one of the best. I don't think he took this job so he could take more abuse either. They were 8-5 last year and I just don't think it would be asking much to get one more win in 2011.

 

[ERockMoney]

9. Cincinnati Bearcats
(Projected 5-7, 2-5)

The Bearcats are trying to reinvent themselves in the post-Kelly era. Year one of the Jones regime was a disaster and although I expect major improvement from the squad at nearly all levels I think the schedule doesn’t play out favorably for Cincinnati. I’m a big believer in what I like to call the “flow” of a schedule and Cincinnati’s doesn’t line up well for them IMO.

The Bearcats conference schedule features home games against Louisville, West Virginia and Connecticut along with road trips to South Florida, Pittsburgh, Rutgers and Syracuse. The non-conference schedule features home games versus NC State, Akron and road trips to Tennessee and Miami, OH.

Cincinnati struggled last season with a 4-8 record (2-5 Big East), so one may question why they are even on this list. I’m labeling them a disappointment based on the buzz they are receiving as a serious bounce back team and Big East contender for 2011. Cincinnati ranked 32nd in offense and 61st on defense in 2010. The real struggle for the Bearcats was versus the pass where they finished 88th in the country. Cincinnati returns QB Collaros and has some talent at the skill positions. The offensive line is a concern having lost both tackles and a guard. Collaros needs to improve his decision making and do a better job of reading coverage. His inability to read the defense stunted the offense at times in 2010 and further exposed a poor defense. The talent is there, but if his progression is slow or non-existent – this team will be in serious trouble.

The defense should improve, especially across the front seven where this unit could be the best in the Big East. The question will be how the secondary improves, terrible to solid or terrible to average. I like the looks of the defense and think they may surprise in 2011.

Recruiting has been solid in comparison to their conference counterparts and actually saw an uptick in 2011 versus 2010. I rated the Bearcats fourth in 2010 in the conference and third in 2011 – rating higher than conference powers West Virginia and Pittsburgh. However, on the national scale the team is still probably in the 45-60 range over the past two seasons.

I don’t have a huge issue with the talent and likely progression of the Bearcats, especially defensively, but I do have concerns with the schedule. I don’t think Cincinnati can go into Tennessee and compete early in the season and I expect NC State to be a difficult out this year. Throw in a brutal three game stretch, sandwiched around a bye, at South Florida, at Pittsburgh and home versus West Virginia and could this team could crack and revert back to the effort they put on the field in 2010. Louisville, Rutgers and Syracuse should show improvement in 2011 and closing with a solid Connecticut team simply may not lead to a lot of wins this year.

I rate Cincinnati on par with a Louisville and Syracuse in the conference a notch below South Florida and trailing the big three in West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Connecticut. The conference may simply devour itself this season, as there aren’t one or two teams who are vastly better than the others and there isn’t one or two teams who vastly worse.

I project the Bearcats to have a 5-7 season, which is in line with the 2010 results and don’t see the dramatic turnaround many expect, although the talent and effort on the field should improve it simply won’t affect the end result.

I view this team as needing a hot start to regain confidence and swagger and early losses to Tennessee and NC State could be serious blows to the squads progression. Jones will continue to hear the Kelly talk and this team truly can’t come together until they find some success on the field. As the season wears on and the losses mount, pressure and media flack increases, it would render it virtually impossible for Cincinnati to settle into the new era with any form of sustained success in 2011.

 

[groundhog11]

i agree erock....i could see cincy 5-7, 6-6.....looks like it will be a tough year for them.....the ncst game could be big for them...could be whether they go bowling or not...

 

[russ1945]

Russ, unless John Brantley makes SIGNIFICANT improvements (or they bench him) the O will struggle all year....and if they bench him a true freshman will be forced into action. Either way: not good.

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Coach I look at the SEC from the outside looking in perspective. As you know I caught all kinds of flack trying to defend my stance that Florida was not going to be the dynasty that most Gator fans and many SEC fans thought they were destined to be. To me it was obvious that they could not just reload play makers like Tebow, Harvin, etc. Florida had a nice run but the days of dynasties have long passed.


What I like about Florida are not huge stick out qualities but more or less more subtle indicators that they might improve. Florida still has a top notch defense. Granted Brantley was not a Tebow by any standards, although many thought he might even be better at one time (not me). But am I down on Brantley as a QB, not necessarily. Am I down on SEC QB's as a group. If 2010 is any indication, yes I am. Five SEC QB's ranked in the top 50 last year and only one returns, Aaron Murray of Georgia who ranked #29 last year. Brantley was next at #73 ahead of Massoli of Mississippi who had shined at Oregon. Relf of Miss St finished #82 and Jefferson of LSU finished #100, yet LSU is considered a legitimate national championship contender. Why not look for improvement from Brantley and from Florida with new coaching and a fresh start so to speak.


I think Brantley can improve and new coaching will help. If he can just get into the top 50 and not throw interceptions that might be enough for 9 victories. I guess my point is who in the SEC has a better QB other than Georgia. That #29 Ranked scoring defense ain't shabby and shoddy execution early in the season was not all attributable to Brantley. I saw several snaps sail wildly out of his reach.
It takes a lot to convert me from the naysayer and I am not announcing a potential national contender, just maybe a team that can maintain or improve in Muschamp's first year.

 

[ERockMoney]

i agree erock....i could see cincy 5-7, 6-6.....looks like it will be a tough year for them.....the ncst game could be big for them...could be whether they go bowling or not...

GH,

I think NC State could surprise a lot of people this year. Seems like people are making to much out of Wilson's departure, but I really like the look of this Glennon kid and think the Wolfpack don't miss a beat.

 

[ERockMoney]

Coach I look at the SEC from the outside looking in perspective. As you know I caught all kinds of flack trying to defend my stance that Florida was not going to be the dynasty that most Gator fans and many SEC fans thought they were destined to be. To me it was obvious that they could not just reload play makers like Tebow, Harvin, etc. Florida had a nice run but the days of dynasties have long passed.

What I like about Florida are not huge stick out qualities but more or less more subtle indicators that they might improve. Florida still has a top notch defense. Granted Brantley was not a Tebow by any standards, although many thought he might even be better at one time (not me). But am I down on Brantley as a QB, not necessarily. Am I down on SEC QB's as a group. If 2010 is any indication, yes I am. Five SEC QB's ranked in the top 50 last year and only one returns, Aaron Murray of Georgia who ranked #29 last year. Brantley was next at #73 ahead of Massoli of Mississippi who had shined at Oregon. Relf of Miss St finished #82 and Jefferson of LSU finished #100, yet LSU is considered a legitimate national championship contender. Why not look for improvement from Brantley and from Florida with new coaching and a fresh start so to speak.

I think Brantley can improve and new coaching will help. If he can just get into the top 50 and not throw interceptions that might be enough for 9 victories. I guess my point is who in the SEC has a better QB other than Georgia. That #29 Ranked scoring defense ain't shabby and shoddy execution early in the season was not all attributable to Brantley. I saw several snaps sail wildly out of his reach.
It takes a lot to convert me from the naysayer and I am not announcing a potential national contender, just maybe a team that can maintain or improve in Muschamp's first year.

Russ,

I don't think its off the wall to think the Gators could win nine games. I agree with you, there are only two games on the schedule I rate as high probability losses in Alabama and LSU. I do have five games I think are "toss ups", so Florida going 4-1 there isn't out of the question although I expect a 2-3 or 3-2.

 

[ERockMoney]

8. Clemson Tigers
(Projected 5-7, 3-5)

Clemson is a team that has been on a downward spiral for years IMO. The talent they have put on the field year after year has far exceeded the results they have been able achieve. The talent isn’t where it once was, but still exists, which should correspond to this team falling short once again in 2011, as they are usually a shoe-in to underachieve. I expect the Tigers will be looking for a new coach in 2012 as they try to get back near the top of the ACC.

Clemson’s conference schedule features home games against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina and Wake Forest and road trips to Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech and NC State. The Tigers face a couple of SEC powers on the non-conference schedule with a home game versus Auburn and a road trip to in-state rival South Carolina.

The Tigers were 6-6 last season (4-4 ACC) and were upset by South Florida in the bowl game last season. The Tigers should continue to head down hill in 2011 and aren’t poised for a bounce back as some media outlets have suggested. The Tigers ranked 23rd on defense and 87th on offense in 2010. I expect the offense to improve and defense to slip a bit in 2011. The Tigers are simply average nearly everywhere in comparison to the other ACC teams. I like the Clemson offensive line and think the move from Harper to Ellington will be seamless. Boyd taking over at QB doesn’t hurt, because Parker was terrible last season. The question is how much does Boyd improve the offense, some I suspect, but I doubt he walks in and the Tigers are a dominant offense in the ACC, even with the addition of Morris as the OC.

Uncharacteristically, the Tigers seem a bit soft on the defensive line for the first time in years. Clemson has a made a name for themselves in recent years putting out great talents across the line. The line backing corps could be the top unit in the conference IMO and should be the strength of their defense. The secondary is suspect and is going through almost a complete overhaul. I expect this unit to struggle mightily this season.

Recruiting has been consistently strong as Clemson has cranked our consecutive top 20 classes IMO and has really on lagged Florida State in the conference. The Tigers problem has never been getting the talent, but developing it once they are on campus.

Clemson has the players, but lacks the necessary coaching to achieve outstanding results in the ACC. They consistently fail to close games out and always seem to end up on the short end of any tight battle. The Tigers are typically extremely undisciplined and fail to make the big play at the big moment. I think the Tigers probably split their home conference games and don’t see them winning more than one conference game away from home.

I rate Clemson on par with a Miami, Boston College and North Carolina. The biggest misconception I see is the thought Clemson is on par with a Florida State or Virginia Tech. The gap between Clemson and the top of the ACC is widening at a rapid pace. In fact, I think teams like Maryland and NC State could really surprise in 2011 and have surpassed the Tigers IMO.

I project the Clemson to have a 5-7 season, which is in line with the 2010 results, but for a program like Clemson to miss a bowl, post a 11-13 mark over two seasons and fall in a conference that hasn’t put out a team that has even sniffed title contention in years, is unacceptable.

If my projections are accurate and Clemson struggles we will likely see a new Tiger coach in 2012 and coupled with Morris’s expected improved offense, this team could be back near the top of the ACC rather quickly. The talent is there, no question, they just need to find a big time coach to restore a winning attitude and develop the athletes they consistently secure.

 

[russ1945]

ERM: Keep in mind that Clemson imported a new OC, Chad Morris from Tulsa. Look for more offense and a balanced attack. Last year Tulsa was the only team in the country to finish in the top 15 in both rushing and passing. Could be a difference maker.

 

[groundhog11]

if clemson ends up with that record....welcome rrod back to clemson....

 

[SoonerBS]

Where are you getting this info, Erock?

 

[ERockMoney]

Where are you getting this info, Erock?

Sooner,

These are my thoughts for 2011 based on my off-season analysis and research.

 

[ERockMoney]

7. Oregon State Beavers
(Projected 3-9, 2-7)

It’s difficult to put the Beavers on this list and project only three wins for the season because Riley has been known to pull a few rabbits out of his hat in the past and Oregon State is returning their promising young QB Katz. However, the Beavers are going through a tough transition; especially on the defensive side of the ball and just don’t stack up in the deep Pac 12.

The Beavers conference schedule features home games against UCLA, Arizona, Stanford and Washington and road trips to Arizona State, Washington State, Utah, California and Oregon. The non-conference schedule has a home game against what should be a vastly improved BYU team and a road trip to Madison to face Wisconsin.

Oregon State was 5-7 last season (4-5 Pac 12) and took on both Boise State and TCU away from home. The Beavers ranked 86th on defense and 94th on offense in 2010. I expect the offense to improve in 2011, but the defense should continue to be one of the lesser units in the country. Katz returns and has a bright future and will benefit from playing behind a very sound offense line. Oregon State’s offensive line should be very good in 2011 and has a shot at being a top three unit in the conference. The Beavers lose star RB Rodgers to the NFL and his brother returns at WR off a serious injury in 2010. If Rodgers isn’t the same the Beavers will be severely lacking at the skill positions in comparison to their conference foes.

The Beavers may have the worst defense in the conference this season and are extremely thin in the front seven. In fact, I’m not even sure if they are even within striking distance of any other front seven in the conference - Washington State, maybe? The secondary is in a bit better shape, but likely won’t finish in the top half of the conference.

The 2010 recruiting class for the Beavers was a down group IMO, which will hurt Oregon State this season. Riley has shown a history of being able to coach up his players, but the 2010 class simply isn’t on par with the rest of the conference. Recruiting was up in 2011 for Oregon State and should have a greater impact on the 2012 campaign.

Unlike the Tigers in the number eight slot, Oregon State does have the coaching in place, but is lacking the talent on the field. I think the Beavers may start off slowly in 2011 and could be 1-5 before things start to settle with the personnel. Unfortunately, as the team likely improves down the stretch they have to face both Stanford and Oregon late in the season.

I would consider Oregon State in line with California and a few notches above UCLA, Colorado and Washington State. However, the gap is widening in comparison to the better teams in the conference.

I project the Beavers to have an uncharacteristic 3-9 season and really struggle in the new look Pac 12. The defense will struggle to compete with many of the high powered offense in the conference. The opposition should be able to move the ball at will on the ground and keep the Beaver offense off the field. The Beavers offense has a reasonable chance to be a solid unit in 2011, but they will likely have to score a ton to make up for the defense.

Oregon State should be more competitive later in the season if Riley can work his usual magic, but I expect this team to get off to a slow start and suffer in the early portion of the conference schedule.

 

[Conan]

I disagree with 2 on the list, USC and Oregon State both.

First there's USC. The only people with high expectations don't live on the west coast. Personally I don't expect much from them but they will give the Sun Devils and the Utes a problem if not take one of them out completely. I think they are in the running for 2nd or 3rd in the conference's southern division which is a big disappointment for USC but not unexpected. Colorado and UCLA will be beneath them at the end of the year, Arizona may be too. If ASU slips up, USC may top them as well. But it ends there.

Oregon State has never fielded a defense as bad as they did last season and the only reason it was as bad as it was was due to the fact that for the 2nd year in a row, almost everyone on the DL was new. Not so this season. They have one of the top DC's in the conference in Mark Banker and he's finally had a little time to coach up his men. If you are looking for stars beside the name of their players, look elsewhere. You won't find many on the Beaver team, but their success over the past decade proves someone in their recruiting department knows a diamond in the rough when he sees one. Losing Stephen Paea will hurt, but they return a bunch anyway. Their QB Ryan Katz was imressive in his first season and he will only get better. Cody Vaz his backup was getting a lot of ooohs and ahhhs during the spring. I didn't expect to see that but it happened. Katz will assert himself much more this season than last year and the Beavers have a couple of big tall physical receivers for him to throw at. The kid has a cannon for an arm. I've said so for a year now. His downfield accuracy is something else. Sooner or later he will get in sync with his receivers and people will get burned. The one big question on that team is who will replace Quizz? They've usually found someone to step forward but the position is still up for grabs. Who will be their next Stephen Jackson?

 

[GoSooners]

Well coached teams like Oregon State never fall as far as it appears they will. I remember them saying the same thing in the preseason about Cincinnati a couple years ago when they had only 1 starter back on defense, but still ended up winning the Big East under Kelly. When the really good coaches take a big fall, it's usually because of assistant coach departures and injuries. Not because of the talent he has the work with.

 

[MackDonald]

Where are you getting this info, Erock?

No one seems to know but, don't cut Erock short.

 

[ERockMoney]

Conan, GS -

I agree with a lot of your comments, especially regarding the Beavers and thier excellent coaching staff with Riley and Banker and Katz and his potential. I would disagree with expectations surrounding USC. I spend a good deal of time in California and expectations certainly seem rather high to me. Granted, it could be local homerism from the media and fan base, but there is certainly plenty of talk about the Trojans winning the South and putting together a nine or ten win season.

In terms of the conference, I just don't see enough wins to go around. If Oregon and Stanford continue to dominante they could amass over 31% of the total wins (17 of 54) and throw in about six for the bottom three and your left with spreading 31 wins over seven teams or 4.4 wins per team. Those seven teams are Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon State USC, Utah and Washington.

You could have a situation where these team cannibalize themselves and you end up with a plethora of 4-5 and 5-4 teams. I think it is more likely two of these teams (Arizona State and Washington?) create some separation and end up with six or more conference wins, which means two of the group (California and Oregon State?) will post 3 or less conference wins. Its just a numbers game at that point. All seven teams can't post solid conference records there just aren't enough wins to go around. I certainly could be wrong about which teams rise, stay in the middle or drop down, but this will likely be how the conference records shape out. The real question will be which of these teams does what, but two of those seven are likely to produce a record that is very uncharacteristic for their program.