Electoral College 11/1 Update: Arizona moves to a toss up.

[gtc08]

electoral changes: Arizona lean McCain to toss up.
electoral college if election was tonight: 353-185 Obama

Obama(238): Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Hawaii

McCain(127): Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

Toss Ups/Leaners RCP Averages(173):
Nevada 50.3-43.3 Obama
Arizona 49.3-44.9 McCain previous 49.4-44.2 McCain
Colorado 51-44.4 Obama previous 50.8-44.3 Obama
New Mexico 50.3-43 Obama
Montana 48.8-45 McCain previous 46.8-44.8 McCain
North Dakota 47.7-43.7 McCain
Missouri: 48.2-47.8 McCain
Indiana: 47.5-45.8 McCain
Ohio: 49.2-43.4 Obama
West Virginia: 50.2-42.2 McCain
Virginia: 51-44.5 Obama
North Carolina: 48.6-46.1 Obama previous 48.9-46.3 Obama
Georgia: 49.6-45.6 McCain previous 50-45.8 McCain
Florida: 48.5-45 Obama
Pennsylvania: 51.8-43.3 Obama previous 52.3-43 Obama

 

[RobFunk]

I said this a few months back. I want AZ! Probably won't happen, but that would be the serious punctuation mark.

Believe it or not I got this idea from Hannity forum and that is what put the thought into my head. Someone started a thread "Uh-oh, Obama polling closer in AZ!" And that started my thinking about it. I was like hell yeah that would be cool.

 

[PowerPlayPicks]

Arizona is an extreme toss up believe me! There are a lot of disenchanted Mexican votes out here against McStain and Collge towns of Tempe and Tucson. This state I think will go Obama as with the Democratic Gov Napolitano promised a few months agao she can get Obama AZ and now it might and will happen. Thats 10 more Electorals to the column.

 

[gtc08]

50 is the real tipping scale. 50 virtually no chance a state turns. Under 50 anything is possible

 

[joelatti]

ALL I care about is GEORGIA! only kidding but at least its something...Obama wins georgia and I will be sporting a new avatar courtesy of Mrs. Obama!

 

[jeffry22]

nonsense, penn. is now a tossup, and if penn goes for mccain its over for obama!

 

[D2bets]

nonsense, penn. is now a tossup, and if penn goes for mccain its over for obama!

<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody id="398271"><tr><td colspan="10" class="lines-contest-title">PE 11 11/2 (F) OBAMA VS MCCAIN (WHO WILL WIN PENNSYLVANIA) (08:00 am ET) </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-header"> <td valign="bottom" height="25">Outcome </td><td align="right" valign="bottom">
</td><td> </td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom">Spread </td><td> </td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right" valign="bottom" nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td><td>
</td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-oddrow"> <td>OBAMA </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">

</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">-1200
</td><td> </td></tr><tr class="lines-contest-evenrow"> <td>MCCAIN </td><td align="right">
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">

</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td align="right">
</td><td align="right">+700
</td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table>
Missouri/Baylor is a Tossup too
<table summary="Static lines content" style="clear: both;" cellpadding="3" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="dynamicLines2"><td id="D_130280522_0">Sat 11/1</td> <td>327</td> <td align="left">Missouri</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divS1_130280522_0" nowrap="nowrap"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="S1_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> <select style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" name="selS1_130280522_0" id="selS1_130280522_0"><option value=" -22.5 +110_0"> -22.5 +110</option><option value=" -22 +106_1"> -22 +106</option><option value=" -21.5 +101_2"> -21.5 +101</option><option value=" -21 -107_3" selected="selected"> -21 -107</option><option value=" -20.5 -118_4"> -20.5 -118</option><option value=" -20 -126_5"> -20 -126</option><option value=" -19.5 -132_6"> -19.5 -132</option></select></td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divM1_130280522_0"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="M1_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> -1000<input name="selM1_130280522_0" value="-1000" type="hidden"></td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divT1_130280522_0" nowrap="nowrap"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="T1_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> OVER 66.5 -105<input name="selT1_130280522_0" value="66.5 -105" type="hidden"></td> <td class="tableText" rowspan="2" id="divSpecials_130280522_0" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr> <tr class="dynamicLines2"> <td id="H_130280522_0">12:00 pm</td> <td>328</td> <td align="left">Baylor</td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divS2_130280522_0" nowrap="nowrap"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="S2_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> <select style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" name="selS2_130280522_0" id="selS2_130280522_0"><option value=" +22.5 -125_0"> +22.5 -125</option><option value=" +22 -120_1"> +22 -120</option><option value=" +21.5 -114_2"> +21.5 -114</option><option value=" +21 -103_3" selected="selected"> +21 -103</option><option value=" +20.5 +105_4"> +20.5 +105</option><option value=" +20 +112_5"> +20 +112</option><option value=" +19.5 +117_6"> +19.5 +117</option></select></td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divM2_130280522_0"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="M2_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> +740<input name="selM2_130280522_0" value="+740" type="hidden"></td> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" id="divT2_130280522_0" nowrap="nowrap"><input onfocus="parent.dataframe.toggleRefreshState(false);" name="T2_130280522_0" size="6" maxlength="15" type="text"> UNDER 66.5 -105</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[gtc08]

Pennsylvania: 51.8-43.3 Obama previous 52.3-43 Obama

getting closer, but still a sure thing for obama if the election was today. anything over 50 is the tipping scale which is why mccain is running back to arizona now.

 

[jeffry22]

Pennsylvania: 51.8-43.3 Obama previous 52.3-43 Obama

getting closer, but still a sure thing for obama if the election was today. anything over 50 is the tipping scale which is why mccain is running back to arizona now.

Rasmussen has it at 4 this morning, nbc had the same a couple days ago - if these polls are accurate mccain is very much in play there and that means he could win, period.

 

[D2bets]

Rasmussen has it at 4 this morning, nbc had the same a couple days ago - if these polls are accurate mccain is very much in play there and that means he could win, period.

He's in play like Nebraska is in play today.

 

[Mistermj]

nonsense, penn. is now a tossup, and if penn goes for mccain its over for obama!

Exactly...

GTC is too embarrassed to include a link....probably came from KOS. :lol:

 

[gtc08]

those are my calculations based off the rcp model.

 

[Mistermj]

those are my calculations based off the rcp model.

uh Huh....hno:

 

[gtc08]

here mj

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/23 - 10/31 -- -- 51.8 43.3 Obama +8.5
Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/27 - 10/31 615 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12

realclearpolitics.com

 

[jeffry22]

those are my calculations based off the rcp model.

so you dont think pn. is in play, huh? If it's in the range or 4 pts now then anything can happen, especially since no one knows if there will be a bradley effect or not.