EDT.TO/ Spectral medical

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Bozzie

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So low on cash at this point. Last year they did their raise with another quarters plus worth of cash still in the kitty. And that was in a low interest rate environment when financing was flowing like water not wine. This year is a rising interest rate environment which is very unfriendly, they spent 3 weeks in the 50's and yet they didn't pull the trigger? Even if the best deal they had was technically underwater they still would have done it based on how close they were to times up... this timing is strange based on their past and their personalities.
 

beeker

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So low on cash at this point. Last year they did their raise with another quarters plus worth of cash still in the kitty. And that was in a low interest rate environment when financing was flowing like water not wine. This year is a rising interest rate environment which is very unfriendly, they spent 3 weeks in the 50's and yet they didn't pull the trigger? Even if the best deal they had was technically underwater they still would have done it based on how close they were to times up... this timing is strange based on their past and their personalities.
That's what makes me think there may be an alternate form of financing that has been in the works for many months. It's possible that they are close, but nothing has been inked yet. Sitting with the lawyers, so to speak. Also possible that fails and Plan B is a general Eqty financing...as in the past.
 

Bozzie

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That's what makes me think there may be an alternate form of financing that has been in the works for many months. It's possible that they are close, but nothing has been inked yet. Sitting with the lawyers, so to speak. Also possible that fails and Plan B is a general Eqty financing...as in the past.
partnership or bridge of some sort..I could see.
I still think Baxter has a plan we don't know about
 

beeker

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partnership or bridge of some sort..I could see.
I still think Baxter has a plan we don't know about
Baxter definitely has a plan wrt PMX/EAA. We just don't know yet whether they want to be a player on the Dialco piece. And if so, whether they might be outbid by others locked in a battle for control with Fresenius. There are some synergies to controlling both pieces. It's possible that we are about to receive a giant clue any day now.
 

Bozzie

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Baxter definitely has a plan wrt PMX/EAA. We just don't know yet whether they want to be a player on the Dialco piece. And if so, whether they might be outbid by others locked in a battle for control with Fresenius. There are some synergies to controlling both pieces. It's possible that we are about to receive a giant clue any day now.
I agree ..doubting less and less thy are playing in the public market with more paper.
hang tight..
 

Bozzie

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Just for not fun I'm starting a list of possible behind the scene events that could solve our finances. It's just a mental exercise I've gone through 1000's times over the past 6 weeks as I am fully prepared to wake up to something dilutive.

1) 10% direct sale of Dialco at a 100-150mm valuation. Sets the price and theoretically causes the stock price to rise in accordance with the 'floor' being set. Key is selling it to the right parties. Sami winning some deals recently make this more possible than it was a year ago.

2) Renegotiate the Baxter distribution deal. Give them a bigger percentage in exchange for cash. Baxter sees the results to date exceeding expectations of Tigris and would probably do that deal. I mean they liked it before Tigris started so they should like it more now I would think.

3) Loan from a commercial bank. Those things take atleast a couple of months to set up and are notorious for hitting a snag or two along the way. Doesn't seem likely now that we are in the last month of cash.

4) A letter of intent with Newco that both parties agree not to announce/consummate until some key event happens with a regulator such as the FTC. Obviously the yummiest of all options but Dr. Walker not buying all the shares he could from his options sort of points to this not happening. He's on the Board so he would know if that agreement was in place I would think.

5) Accelerated approval of PMX, and Tigris trial being allowed to be finished post marketing. This is a possibility but I can't see Spectral totally relying on such an impossible to predict action from the FDA. Though I could see it coinciding with #2, renegotiate with Baxter, so they had a plan B if the FDA doesn't fully cooperate. Though it is interesting that Baxter recently transitioned into the pre-marketing phase. I also think accelerated approval would force the final two milestones with Baxter to be in play.

6) Toray? They haven't even exercised their anti-dilution clause so this is very unlikely.

7) A huge Sami contract win. This would have to be paired with #3 and would be similar to getting a loan based on a purchase order in hand. I don't think they'd wait until the last minute on something so up in the air. super duper doubtful like 100%

8) Spectral used their remaining million dollars and bought a bunch of Powerball tickets and scratch offs. You never know what those crazy Canadians will do eh?
 

Bruins4Life

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I'm with option 8 lol.
 

beeker

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Just for not fun I'm starting a list of possible behind the scene events that could solve our finances. It's just a mental exercise I've gone through 1000's times over the past 6 weeks as I am fully prepared to wake up to something dilutive.

1) 10% direct sale of Dialco at a 100-150mm valuation. Sets the price and theoretically causes the stock price to rise in accordance with the 'floor' being set. Key is selling it to the right parties. Sami winning some deals recently make this more possible than it was a year ago.

2) Renegotiate the Baxter distribution deal. Give them a bigger percentage in exchange for cash. Baxter sees the results to date exceeding expectations of Tigris and would probably do that deal. I mean they liked it before Tigris started so they should like it more now I would think.

3) Loan from a commercial bank. Those things take atleast a couple of months to set up and are notorious for hitting a snag or two along the way. Doesn't seem likely now that we are in the last month of cash.

4) A letter of intent with Newco that both parties agree not to announce/consummate until some key event happens with a regulator such as the FTC. Obviously the yummiest of all options but Dr. Walker not buying all the shares he could from his options sort of points to this not happening. He's on the Board so he would know if that agreement was in place I would think.

5) Accelerated approval of PMX, and Tigris trial being allowed to be finished post marketing. This is a possibility but I can't see Spectral totally relying on such an impossible to predict action from the FDA. Though I could see it coinciding with #2, renegotiate with Baxter, so they had a plan B if the FDA doesn't fully cooperate. Though it is interesting that Baxter recently transitioned into the pre-marketing phase. I also think accelerated approval would force the final two milestones with Baxter to be in play.

6) Toray? They haven't even exercised their anti-dilution clause so this is very unlikely.

7) A huge Sami contract win. This would have to be paired with #3 and would be similar to getting a loan based on a purchase order in hand. I don't think they'd wait until the last minute on something so up in the air. super duper doubtful like 100%

8) Spectral used their remaining million dollars and bought a bunch of Powerball tickets and scratch offs. You never know what those crazy Canadians will do eh?
Nice summary.

To that I might add a hybrid debt/equity financing possibility. Such higher than bank interest rate debentures, that may be convertible to shares at say $0.60 Cdn cents. If this were a possibility, I would be careful who I sold them to, for fear that there could be a subsequent short play always coverable by future/converted shares by the debenture owner.
Guessing 60% probability that it's another run-of-the-mill and dilutive straight eqty deal, and 40% either one of your #1 or # 2 options, or a debenture.
Hoping that some group of current owners with deep pockets see this as a "when not if" home stretch play... that shouldn't be taken advantage of.
 

Bozzie

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Nice summary.

To that I might add a hybrid debt/equity financing possibility. Such higher than bank interest rate debentures, that may be convertible to shares at say $0.60 Cdn cents. If this were a possibility, I would be careful who I sold them to, for fear that there could be a subsequent short play always coverable by future/converted shares by the debenture owner.
Guessing 60% probability that it's another run-of-the-mill and dilutive straight eqty deal, and 40% either one of your #1 or # 2 options, or a debenture.
Hoping that some group of current owners with deep pockets see this as a "when not if" home stretch play... that shouldn't be taken advantage of.
Agree..but any equity financing should have been completed a while back and would have had to be announced on completion..material..extreme material.
Couldn't see them announce anything this week with Labor Day being Monday in the US..next week I'm thinking something plays out... Friday announcements usually scare me....
 

beeker

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I believe that they have the luxury of not having to "go to the market" with uncertainty in this poor capital raising environment. When called upon they have always been able to find a group of equity investors. I don't believe that this time, it will be any different, especially given a few recent positive developments (Break Thru, SAMI, VA, etc.). So it won't take time to raise the funds, and there should be no unknowns as to who the equity buyers might be. My gut is that it's in draft, ready to go, as they continue to try to cut a last minute deal with Baxter or one of the DIMI Trial partners...to front-end some cash.
 

Bozzie

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7,911
I believe that they have the luxury of not having to "go to the market" with uncertainty in this poor capital raising environment. When called upon they have always been able to find a group of equity investors. I don't believe that this time, it will be any different, especially given a few recent positive developments (Break Thru, SAMI, VA, etc.). So it won't take time to raise the funds, and there should be no unknowns as to who the equity buyers might be. My gut is that it's in draft, ready to go, as they continue to try to cut a last minute deal with Baxter or one of the DIMI Trial partners...to front-end some cash.
I'd agree...I don't think there is panic in any way..something is cooking the longer it stretches the less I think it's a traditional raise.

Who knows these guy hold the cards so closely .

I absolutely don't think walker would have exercised if bad news was on the horizon..he's brought way too many friends and family into this to sell before bad news...JMO on that...I'm thinking down payment on a condo remodel someplace warm for him and his lady friend.....lol
 

beeker

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I'd agree...I don't think there is panic in any way..something is cooking the longer it stretches the less I think it's a traditional raise.

Who knows these guy hold the cards so closely .

I absolutely don't think walker would have exercised if bad news was on the horizon..he's brought way too many friends and family into this to sell before bad news...JMO on that...I'm thinking down payment on a condo remodel someplace warm for him and his lady friend.....lol
If you looked at what he has left to exercise, there should be no cause for concern. There is some BIG money at stake here !
 

Bozzie

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If you looked at what he has left to exercise, there should be no cause for concern. There is some BIG money at stake here !
if you do the math he upped his share count...despite the market sell off.

Long road for that guy and he's not getting any younger
 

Bozzie

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As the days click by the chances rise of some sorta deal in the works

Surprised this over hanging question hasn't been answered yet.

 

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