I was inspired to look more closely at this game and these teams, as I like seeing polarized opinions, and there definitely are some in Greenbacks2's thread regarding this game tonight.
First, a few stats for background:
2013-2014
President's Trophy Winner: Boston
Boston's Score-Adjusted Corsi Ranking: #3
Last Overall: Buffalo
Buffalo's SAC Ranking: #30
2012-2013
Pres Trophy: Chicago (48 Games)
Chicago's SAC Ranking: #2
Last Overall: Florida (48 Games)
Florida's SAC Ranking: #21
2011-2012
Pres Trophy: Vancouver
Vancouver's SAC: #7
Last Overall: Columbus
Columbus' SAC: #25
2010-2011
Pres Trophy: Vancouver
Vancouver's SAC: #5
Last Overall: Edmonton
Edmonton's SAC: #27
So we can see there's obviously a strong correlation between 5v5 score-adjusted corsi and points/wins, but of course that correlation improves as the sample size gets larger.
Since the start of the 2010 season (so 4.5 seasons), which teams are in the top 5 for SAC at 5v5?:
#1: Los Angeles
#2: Chicago
#3: Boston
#4: Detroit
#5: San Jose
On the flip side:
#30: Buffalo
#29: Edmonton
#28: Toronto
#27: Colorado
#26: Calgary
Which group would you rather be a part of?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much has been written in the Toronto media about the Leafs' struggles of late. In the 13 games since they fired Carlyle they have 3 points, the sole win coming against Columbus 12 games ago. The fucking idiots like Kypreos and McLean and Watters that somehow get paid to give their 2c think that Horachek's the problem now, and, well, they obviously should have kept Carlyle, since they were winning before, amiright? These guys also think that Kessel sucks and is overpaid (mmmmk), and the Leafs should bring back the goon squad to whip these guys into shape. Whatever gets you the ratings, I guess.
I'm also reading the Edmonton media saying the opposite about their team. Boy that Todd Nelson sure has the Oilers playing better hockey since he took over! Damn! Dallas Eakins sucked, they should have fired him earlier! 18 points in the 21 games since he Nelson took over! 4 wins in their last 7!
SPARE ME. 3 of those 4 wins were in shootouts, so they have 1 regulation win in their last 7 - over BUFFALO.
Now if you understand what I was saying in the first part of this post, then check this out:
SC is Scoring Chances per game (For, Against, %)
C is Corsi (For, Against, %)
S is Shooting %
SV is Save %
If you even remotely understood the stuff at the top of the page in terms of correlation between 5v5 SAC and winning games, then you cannot think that the Oilers are an improved team under Nelson, and that the Leafs are a worse team under Horachek. Well, you could try, but you are also likely someone who doesn't vaccinate their kids, thinks that climate change is a hoax, and 9/11 was a false flag.
The Leafs are a better team in virtually EVERY meaningful statistical category under Horachek than under Carlyle, and in some cases by a huge margin, while the Oilers are a much worse team under Nelson than they were under Eakins, point totals be damned.
Frankly, the Leafs were due to have a bad stretch, since their PDO was high for most of the year (thanks to great goaltending) and has now settled to around average (thanks to shitty goaltending and really unlucky shooting percentage). The Oliers have been getting screwed all year by shitty goaltending, and it has marginaly improved of late).
So it's not that the Leafs are due for a win, or a stretch of wins, because at the end of the day they're still a pretty shitty, or at least certainly a below-average team. But they're playing better hockey of late, and simply haven't been rewarded for it. The Oilers are playing worse hockey, but have been rewarded despite that, where they weren't earlier in the year.
NOW LET ME CLARIFY:
I'm not saying that the Leafs will win tonight over the Oilers. I'm not even suggesting that betting on them is good value - that's for you to decide. The information above can never be taken in a vacuum. Yes, there are winning and losing streaks, bad leadership, and bad bounces. A goalie having a good or bad night can undo all logic. But pretend that you were dropped onto Earth, shown the numbers above, had them explained to you, then were asked to select who you thought would win.
I understand the mentality (sort of, even if I don't agree with it) of riding a hot or cold streak, but experience tells me that hockey games are not so different than stock markets. The best time to buy in is when everybody else is selling. Hockey teams in prolonged losing streaks almost always play better hockey for a few games before breaking out of it, and teams in winning streaks often get complacent and win a few at the end of the streak that they didn't deserve to.
If you presented me with this game at the start of December, with the same -150/+160 line, my play would have been on the Oilers or nothing, as the Oilers had better underlying numbers than the Leafs despite a vastly inferior record. Today, I think the play is the Leafs or nothing, as there's no value on the Oilers on the road imo. Frankly, in both cases the better bet is probably to stay away, as both are bad teams, and I'm not sure there's a ton of value in simply finding the better shitty team haha.
As always opinions are welcome, and GLTA
First, a few stats for background:
2013-2014
President's Trophy Winner: Boston
Boston's Score-Adjusted Corsi Ranking: #3
Last Overall: Buffalo
Buffalo's SAC Ranking: #30
2012-2013
Pres Trophy: Chicago (48 Games)
Chicago's SAC Ranking: #2
Last Overall: Florida (48 Games)
Florida's SAC Ranking: #21
2011-2012
Pres Trophy: Vancouver
Vancouver's SAC: #7
Last Overall: Columbus
Columbus' SAC: #25
2010-2011
Pres Trophy: Vancouver
Vancouver's SAC: #5
Last Overall: Edmonton
Edmonton's SAC: #27
So we can see there's obviously a strong correlation between 5v5 score-adjusted corsi and points/wins, but of course that correlation improves as the sample size gets larger.
Since the start of the 2010 season (so 4.5 seasons), which teams are in the top 5 for SAC at 5v5?:
#1: Los Angeles
#2: Chicago
#3: Boston
#4: Detroit
#5: San Jose
On the flip side:
#30: Buffalo
#29: Edmonton
#28: Toronto
#27: Colorado
#26: Calgary
Which group would you rather be a part of?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Much has been written in the Toronto media about the Leafs' struggles of late. In the 13 games since they fired Carlyle they have 3 points, the sole win coming against Columbus 12 games ago. The fucking idiots like Kypreos and McLean and Watters that somehow get paid to give their 2c think that Horachek's the problem now, and, well, they obviously should have kept Carlyle, since they were winning before, amiright? These guys also think that Kessel sucks and is overpaid (mmmmk), and the Leafs should bring back the goon squad to whip these guys into shape. Whatever gets you the ratings, I guess.
I'm also reading the Edmonton media saying the opposite about their team. Boy that Todd Nelson sure has the Oilers playing better hockey since he took over! Damn! Dallas Eakins sucked, they should have fired him earlier! 18 points in the 21 games since he Nelson took over! 4 wins in their last 7!
SPARE ME. 3 of those 4 wins were in shootouts, so they have 1 regulation win in their last 7 - over BUFFALO.
Now if you understand what I was saying in the first part of this post, then check this out:
| ALL STATS AT EVEN STRENGTH 5V5 AND SCORE-ADJUSTED | ||||||
| LEAFS CARLYLE | LEAFS HORACHEK | |||||
| Games | 40 | 22H, 18A | Games | 13 | 4H, 9A | |
| SCF | 25 | SCF | 23.8 | |||
| SCA | 32.7 | SCA | 23.1 | |||
| SC% | 43.3% | SC% | 50.8% | |||
| CF | 48.2 | CF | 49.7 | |||
| CA | 59.2 | CA | 48.6 | |||
| CF% | 44.9% | CF% | 50.6% | |||
| OS% | 9.7% | OS% | 4.0% | |||
| OSV% | 91.9% | OSV% | 90.4% | |||
| PDO | 101.7 | PDO | 94.4 | |||
| POINTS | 45 | POINTS | 3 | |||
| OILERS EAKINS | OILERS NELSON | |||||
| Games | 31 | 17H, 14A | Games | 21 | 10H, 11A | |
| SCF | 24.7 | SCF | 22.5 | |||
| SCA | 25.3 | SCA | 32 | |||
| SC% | 49.4% | SC% | 41.2% | |||
| CF | 52 | CF | 52 | |||
| CA | 52 | CA | 59.1 | |||
| CF% | 50.0% | CF% | 46.8% | |||
| S% | 6.7% | S% | 8.5% | |||
| SV% | 90.2% | SV% | 90.5% | |||
| PDO | 96.9 | PDO | 99 | |||
| POINTS | 19 | POINTS | 18 |
SC is Scoring Chances per game (For, Against, %)
C is Corsi (For, Against, %)
S is Shooting %
SV is Save %
If you even remotely understood the stuff at the top of the page in terms of correlation between 5v5 SAC and winning games, then you cannot think that the Oilers are an improved team under Nelson, and that the Leafs are a worse team under Horachek. Well, you could try, but you are also likely someone who doesn't vaccinate their kids, thinks that climate change is a hoax, and 9/11 was a false flag.
The Leafs are a better team in virtually EVERY meaningful statistical category under Horachek than under Carlyle, and in some cases by a huge margin, while the Oilers are a much worse team under Nelson than they were under Eakins, point totals be damned.
Frankly, the Leafs were due to have a bad stretch, since their PDO was high for most of the year (thanks to great goaltending) and has now settled to around average (thanks to shitty goaltending and really unlucky shooting percentage). The Oliers have been getting screwed all year by shitty goaltending, and it has marginaly improved of late).
So it's not that the Leafs are due for a win, or a stretch of wins, because at the end of the day they're still a pretty shitty, or at least certainly a below-average team. But they're playing better hockey of late, and simply haven't been rewarded for it. The Oilers are playing worse hockey, but have been rewarded despite that, where they weren't earlier in the year.
NOW LET ME CLARIFY:
I'm not saying that the Leafs will win tonight over the Oilers. I'm not even suggesting that betting on them is good value - that's for you to decide. The information above can never be taken in a vacuum. Yes, there are winning and losing streaks, bad leadership, and bad bounces. A goalie having a good or bad night can undo all logic. But pretend that you were dropped onto Earth, shown the numbers above, had them explained to you, then were asked to select who you thought would win.
I understand the mentality (sort of, even if I don't agree with it) of riding a hot or cold streak, but experience tells me that hockey games are not so different than stock markets. The best time to buy in is when everybody else is selling. Hockey teams in prolonged losing streaks almost always play better hockey for a few games before breaking out of it, and teams in winning streaks often get complacent and win a few at the end of the streak that they didn't deserve to.
If you presented me with this game at the start of December, with the same -150/+160 line, my play would have been on the Oilers or nothing, as the Oilers had better underlying numbers than the Leafs despite a vastly inferior record. Today, I think the play is the Leafs or nothing, as there's no value on the Oilers on the road imo. Frankly, in both cases the better bet is probably to stay away, as both are bad teams, and I'm not sure there's a ton of value in simply finding the better shitty team haha.
As always opinions are welcome, and GLTA
