Rainbow-
good point, and the argument I always make, and made the other day. That is why it is worth so little in terms of actual expectations. A push does not lose for you, so that in and of itself is generally worth about half of your expectations. At least in terms of BUYING off, that is not the question here. But one thing that has to be thought about.
And again, it inly has relavence when you are paying every game that it applies.
People laugh when I say that. But say there are 100 games where this is available. A guy who bets here and there lays the -6.5 @ -112 on say 20 of those games. BUT he miraculously bet the games where the pushes WERE a factor. So say 7 of those 20 games he bet landed on the 7. There is NO WAY IN HELL you coould convince him that laying that -6.5 wouldn't be worth -130, let alone -112. It is all in the eye of the beholder.
On the flip side a guy might bet here or there and bet 20 games, and NONE of the games he bet landed on the 7. So to him the extra 7 cents was for naught. It didn't matter if he bought down or not. He would have won anyways.
The bottomline is it is basically theortical. The only way you can put ANY KIND of expectations onit is if you look at every single game that it has occurred, and then get a probability. Sometimes we cannot even agree on the number/spread, let alone the results.
So even when it seems easy, it always isn't.
The final point to that which is after the fact and comparing apples to oranges would be to ask...In the AFC championship game is Pitt +10 a good bet? BEFORE the game I would say 99% of EVERYONE would have said yes. But AFTER the game it was not.It may have had 'value' but lost anyways.
Ultimately, ofr a line to have value it has to make a difference after the game is done. Whether it be winner or a non losing proposition.
