BigJay
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Still a lot of time until Saturday but based on the polls here is what I'm thinking:
SYRACUSE (-2) Rutgers
- The Orange have had a rough start thus far this season, but they always seem to use the Rutgers game as a catalyst to a late season bowl run. Syracuse is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS against the Scarlet Knights since 1987. The Orange are tough to beat in the loud Carrier Dome, especially mid-season, sporting a 9-3 record ATS in their last 12 games as a conference home favorite. Rutgers is banged up on the defensive side of the ball in both their run and pass defense; that was exploited by West Virginia last week in a 27-14 win easily covering the (-3.5) spread in RU. Look for SU QB Perry Patterson to finally have a big day by playing off the 100 yard effort RB Damien Rhodes is bound to have against the struggling Knights.
North Texas (PK) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
- North Texas returns 1000 yard rushers Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas, however, QB Daniel Meager has not been able to get it going in the passing game; the catalyst for the slow 1-3 start. Don’t get too hard on North Texas, in seasons past they seldom do well in their out-of-conference games to begin the year. The Mean Green made the New Orleans Bowl with a 7-4 regular season record last year, but produced a dismal 0-4 record outside the Sun Belt. North Texas is the defending Sun Belt champion that swept a more difficult Sun Belt Conference schedule with a 7-0 record last season. (New Mexico St, Utah St, Idaho OUT - Florida Int, Florida Atl IN). Florida International has started slow at 0-3, and I still cannot believe the line in this is only a Pickem‘. Look for North Texas to get back on track this week after simply getting out-kicked in a 13-10 conference loss to Troy last week, their first Sun Belt loss since I can remember.
NEVADA (OVER 57) Louisiana Tech
- I’m not particularly big on O/U’s but this is one of my top plays this week. These two teams have averaged 83 PPG in this series over their 5 meetings. Nevada has averaged 46 PPG in WAC action this year including a 62-14 win against Idaho last week, while Louisiana Tech has averaged 40 PPG in their two WAC games this year. I don’t understand how the line can be only 57 points in a game with a continual history of high-scoring like this. With both at 40+ PPG in the WAC, this is definitely a top play this week.
South Florida (+2 / +110 ML) PITTSBURGH
- South Florida has way too much speed for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, and will pressure Pittsburgh QB Tyler Palko into multiple interceptions. The Bulls’ RB Andre Hall and WR Johnny Peyton will have a field day against the struggling Pitt defense who gave up 37 points to Rutgers two weeks back. The wrong team is the favorite here, this will be a blowout, take South Florida SU or ATS and you are bound to have a winner.
Middle Tennessee St (-5) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
- Another case of a Sun Belt team favorite by a little just because they are on the road. Let's face it, almost nobody bets on these games. Middle Tennessee St beat Vanderbilt and lost close games to last year’s Sun Belt champion North Texas, as well as Akron and Alabama. Florida Atlantic is 1-5 and have gotten blown out by almost every team they have played so far (their first season in the Sun Belt) and doesn't stand much a chance against the Blue Raiders lead by veteran QB Clint Marks.
Georgia (-16) VANDERBILT
- After a 4-0 start, the Commodores dropped a key game needed for their eventual bowl run with a 17-15 loss at home against the Sun Belt’s Middle Tennessee St. Vanderbilt has come back to earth after getting routed at home by LSU in a disappointing 34-6 loss. This week should be no different as they face the undefeated #5 Georgia Bulldogs hot off their win over Tennessee. Look for the Bulldogs to roll in this one as only one of Georgia’s last 27 SU wins over Vanderbilt since 1975 have been by less than double digits; including a 33-3 rout last year. The Commodores have not fared too well against the SEC East Division in the past, sporting a 1-19 SU and 7-13 ATS record in the last 4 years. Look for that trend to continue as this is a bad spot for Vanderbilt’s homecoming game.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6) Ohio
- If you are a good handicapper, by mid-season you usually find 1-2 teams that you ride for or against each week for the rest of the year. You get a feel for them, and quoting a line from the sports betting movie Two for the Money, “I know these teams better than they know themselves.” This year the Chippewas are one of those teams for me as I played them and won big on the ML two weeks ago in a huge 31-17 upset (10.5 point underdogs) at Akron followed by covering a small spread at Army last week in a hard fought 14-10 win in the pouring rain in West Point. At 3-3, Central Michigan Senior QB Kent Smith looks to lead the Chippewas closer to first place in the MAC in a key game against the Bobcats of Ohio. Even after 5 games it is tough to get a good read on Ohio, as they have simply won the games they were supposed to win and lost the games they were supposed to lose (W- Pittsburgh, Kent St…L- Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green). However, it is Central Michigan’s homecoming game, and they have a 5-1 record ATS in this series since 1991. Look for Chippewas to keep the train rolling 3 weeks in a row by defeating the Bobcats at home in front of a packed house at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Toledo (-19.5) BALL ST
- After a 5 OT victory against a shaky at best Western Michigan team last week, I believe the lines-makers are pulling an Akron and giving too much credit to Ball St this week. With Senior Bruce Gradkowski at QB, the Rockets are 4-0 (0-1 without in a loss to Fresno St) and have blown opponents out (62-14 over W Illinois, 56-23 over W Michigan, 42-17 over Temple, 30-3 over E Michigan). Toledo is quickly outgrowing the MAC Conference, and look for another Gradkowski to Odom ariel show with a steady dose of Trinity Dawson on the ground. Toledo will roll over the 1-4 Cardinals who lost a 52-14 decision to the Rockets last year.
SO MISS (-8) Central Florida
- Lines-makers are high on Central Florida after their surprise win over Memphis last week. Truth is, Memphis is down to their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> String QB and 3<SUP>rd</SUP> Qtr turnovers turned a 17-14 Memphis lead into a Central Florida 24 point explosion. This forced Memphis to throw the ball, therefore taking the ball out of Heisman dark horse and NCAA leading rusher RB DeAngelo Williams’s hands. This week is Southern Miss’s homecoming and look for them to roll in their first meeting with an overachieving Central Florida team. Senior Southern Miss QB Dustin Almond is the team’s best QB since Brett Favre, and the veteran starter should easily pick apart Central Florida in a key game necessary for Southern Miss to make their 6<SUP>th</SUP> bowl game in 7 years. Look for a Golden Eagles light show in the passing game on homecoming night.
Auburn (-7.5) ARKANSAS
- Auburn has won SU and ATS the last two meetings in this series and look for them to continue the trend this season. The Tigers are 4-1, while Arkansas has struggled their way to their 2-3 record with their only 1-A win coming at the expense of a middle-tier Sun Belt team in La-Monroe. Arkansas has dropped games to Vanderbilt, USC, and Alabama, and I expect QB Brandon Cox and the rest of the Auburn offense to continue their success in their first road game. Auburn has looked good covering big spreads thus far this season and the 7.5 one this week seems that lines-makers are trying to encourage Razorback betting.
Akron (+13.5) MIAMI-OHIO
- Akron QB Luke Getsy has done much better than anticipated filling the shoes of departed All-American QB Charlie Frye by completing 51.2% of his passes for 1423 yards with an 11-6 TD-INT ratio through 5 games. He has also lead Akron to 3 wins this season over Middle Tennessee St, Buffalo, and the big upset against MAC power Northern Illinois. Senior QB Josh Betts has looked good for Miami-Ohio so far, but the rest of the team is not playing up to potential; hence the 2-3 record. The Redhawks are coming off a 38-27 loss last week to the same Northern Illinois team that Akron beat. I think Miami-Ohio is giving up much too many points in the spread to Akron this week in what has the makings to be a hard-fought game with a single-digit outcome. Look at the money line in this one as well, but I am confident in Akron ATS in a game that should only be a 10 point spread. It is obvious the lines-makers wanted to encourage Miami-Ohio betting by having this one look enticing at 13.5 points.
New Mexico St (+20) HAWAII
- New Mexico St is not as bad as their record may indicate. With UTEP, Colorado, New Mexico, California, and Fresno St as 5 of their first 6 games, opening the season at 0-6 is not a surprise. New Mexico St did not look great at Louisiana Tech two weeks ago in a 34-14 loss, but then again, the 20 point favorite in this one is coming off a 46-14 rout at the hands of that same Louisiana Tech team last week. Hawaii has also had a tough schedule with their only win of the year coming against lowly Idaho. The Rainbow Warriors are tough at home, playing Boise St closer than anticipated two weeks back. The New Mexico St game is their homecoming game, so I am expecting a Hawaii win, but nowhere in the range of the 20 points the spread is predicting. Look for New Mexico St to keep it close as the more effective signal-caller Royal Gill (5TD-7INT) settles in to overtake Joey Vincent (0TD-6INT) at QB.
Connecticut (-8) CINCINNATI
- Both teams graduated NFL caliber QB’s last year but it has been Junior QB Matt Bonisklawski for Connecticut who has picked up the slack and lead Connecticut to their 4-1 record. The Huskies now turn to Redshirt Freshman QB D.J. Hernandez who finished off Syracuse last week in place of Bonisklawski who is sidelined 8 weeks with a broken left collarbone. Cincinnati, however, has not been that fortunate as they are only 1-3 in 1-A games so far this year with that win being a close 28-26 game at home against Eastern Michigan to open the season. This spread is way too small as Connecticut has won convincingly in each of their 4 wins this season (Buffalo 38-0, Liberty 59-0, Army 47-13, Syracuse 26-7). Connecticut’s only loss was on the road in their third game against the ACC power Georgia Tech. Look for Connecticut’s Big East leading defense to put pressure on young Cincinnati QB Dustin Grutza and help him to add in a negative way to his already struggling 5-9 TD-INT ratio this year. Connecticut RB Terry Caulley has played excellent with 427 yards and 6 TD’s thus far. Look for him to have a big game against the struggling Bearcats’ run defense.
Northwestern (+7.5 / +250) PURDUE
- After their 51-48 win over Wisconsin last week, it is hard not to bet with Northwestern at +7.5 in this spot against Purdue. At 2-3, Purdue has dropped consecutive home games to Notre Dame and Michigan, while Northwestern has looked good at 3-2, coming closer than anyone to beating Penn St after their close 34-29 loss in the final minutes to the Lions two weeks back. It is Purdue’s homecoming game, and if Joe Tiller drops another Big 10 home game you may see his job gone after this season, so look for the Boilermakers to play inspired football. However, Purdue has dropped three in a row (reminiscent of their slide last year) and Northwestern is hot, making this one look like a 50/50 game and a big play on Northwestern at +7.5. Check out the money line as well as this one can easily go either way.
Utah St (+32.5) FRESNO ST
- Utah St in my eyes is better than they have been in past years as they sit pretty with a 2-2 overall and 1-1 WAC record. However, the Aggies have a huge test on the road against the red hot Fresno St Bulldogs this week. But like I said before, this is an improving Utah St team under head coach Brent Guy who was brought in to stop the bleeding and put an end to the seasons that mimicked the 3-8 one last year. Fresno St will win this one at home but I think the high spread is giving too much credit to the 3-1 Bulldogs. The Utah St defense will keep this respectable and I see it almost impossible for them to lose by more than 31.
SYRACUSE (-2) Rutgers
- The Orange have had a rough start thus far this season, but they always seem to use the Rutgers game as a catalyst to a late season bowl run. Syracuse is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS against the Scarlet Knights since 1987. The Orange are tough to beat in the loud Carrier Dome, especially mid-season, sporting a 9-3 record ATS in their last 12 games as a conference home favorite. Rutgers is banged up on the defensive side of the ball in both their run and pass defense; that was exploited by West Virginia last week in a 27-14 win easily covering the (-3.5) spread in RU. Look for SU QB Perry Patterson to finally have a big day by playing off the 100 yard effort RB Damien Rhodes is bound to have against the struggling Knights.
North Texas (PK) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
- North Texas returns 1000 yard rushers Patrick Cobbs and Jamario Thomas, however, QB Daniel Meager has not been able to get it going in the passing game; the catalyst for the slow 1-3 start. Don’t get too hard on North Texas, in seasons past they seldom do well in their out-of-conference games to begin the year. The Mean Green made the New Orleans Bowl with a 7-4 regular season record last year, but produced a dismal 0-4 record outside the Sun Belt. North Texas is the defending Sun Belt champion that swept a more difficult Sun Belt Conference schedule with a 7-0 record last season. (New Mexico St, Utah St, Idaho OUT - Florida Int, Florida Atl IN). Florida International has started slow at 0-3, and I still cannot believe the line in this is only a Pickem‘. Look for North Texas to get back on track this week after simply getting out-kicked in a 13-10 conference loss to Troy last week, their first Sun Belt loss since I can remember.
NEVADA (OVER 57) Louisiana Tech
- I’m not particularly big on O/U’s but this is one of my top plays this week. These two teams have averaged 83 PPG in this series over their 5 meetings. Nevada has averaged 46 PPG in WAC action this year including a 62-14 win against Idaho last week, while Louisiana Tech has averaged 40 PPG in their two WAC games this year. I don’t understand how the line can be only 57 points in a game with a continual history of high-scoring like this. With both at 40+ PPG in the WAC, this is definitely a top play this week.
South Florida (+2 / +110 ML) PITTSBURGH
- South Florida has way too much speed for Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball, and will pressure Pittsburgh QB Tyler Palko into multiple interceptions. The Bulls’ RB Andre Hall and WR Johnny Peyton will have a field day against the struggling Pitt defense who gave up 37 points to Rutgers two weeks back. The wrong team is the favorite here, this will be a blowout, take South Florida SU or ATS and you are bound to have a winner.
Middle Tennessee St (-5) FLORIDA ATLANTIC
- Another case of a Sun Belt team favorite by a little just because they are on the road. Let's face it, almost nobody bets on these games. Middle Tennessee St beat Vanderbilt and lost close games to last year’s Sun Belt champion North Texas, as well as Akron and Alabama. Florida Atlantic is 1-5 and have gotten blown out by almost every team they have played so far (their first season in the Sun Belt) and doesn't stand much a chance against the Blue Raiders lead by veteran QB Clint Marks.
Georgia (-16) VANDERBILT
- After a 4-0 start, the Commodores dropped a key game needed for their eventual bowl run with a 17-15 loss at home against the Sun Belt’s Middle Tennessee St. Vanderbilt has come back to earth after getting routed at home by LSU in a disappointing 34-6 loss. This week should be no different as they face the undefeated #5 Georgia Bulldogs hot off their win over Tennessee. Look for the Bulldogs to roll in this one as only one of Georgia’s last 27 SU wins over Vanderbilt since 1975 have been by less than double digits; including a 33-3 rout last year. The Commodores have not fared too well against the SEC East Division in the past, sporting a 1-19 SU and 7-13 ATS record in the last 4 years. Look for that trend to continue as this is a bad spot for Vanderbilt’s homecoming game.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6) Ohio
- If you are a good handicapper, by mid-season you usually find 1-2 teams that you ride for or against each week for the rest of the year. You get a feel for them, and quoting a line from the sports betting movie Two for the Money, “I know these teams better than they know themselves.” This year the Chippewas are one of those teams for me as I played them and won big on the ML two weeks ago in a huge 31-17 upset (10.5 point underdogs) at Akron followed by covering a small spread at Army last week in a hard fought 14-10 win in the pouring rain in West Point. At 3-3, Central Michigan Senior QB Kent Smith looks to lead the Chippewas closer to first place in the MAC in a key game against the Bobcats of Ohio. Even after 5 games it is tough to get a good read on Ohio, as they have simply won the games they were supposed to win and lost the games they were supposed to lose (W- Pittsburgh, Kent St…L- Northwestern, Virginia Tech, Bowling Green). However, it is Central Michigan’s homecoming game, and they have a 5-1 record ATS in this series since 1991. Look for Chippewas to keep the train rolling 3 weeks in a row by defeating the Bobcats at home in front of a packed house at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
Toledo (-19.5) BALL ST
- After a 5 OT victory against a shaky at best Western Michigan team last week, I believe the lines-makers are pulling an Akron and giving too much credit to Ball St this week. With Senior Bruce Gradkowski at QB, the Rockets are 4-0 (0-1 without in a loss to Fresno St) and have blown opponents out (62-14 over W Illinois, 56-23 over W Michigan, 42-17 over Temple, 30-3 over E Michigan). Toledo is quickly outgrowing the MAC Conference, and look for another Gradkowski to Odom ariel show with a steady dose of Trinity Dawson on the ground. Toledo will roll over the 1-4 Cardinals who lost a 52-14 decision to the Rockets last year.
SO MISS (-8) Central Florida
- Lines-makers are high on Central Florida after their surprise win over Memphis last week. Truth is, Memphis is down to their 3<SUP>rd</SUP> String QB and 3<SUP>rd</SUP> Qtr turnovers turned a 17-14 Memphis lead into a Central Florida 24 point explosion. This forced Memphis to throw the ball, therefore taking the ball out of Heisman dark horse and NCAA leading rusher RB DeAngelo Williams’s hands. This week is Southern Miss’s homecoming and look for them to roll in their first meeting with an overachieving Central Florida team. Senior Southern Miss QB Dustin Almond is the team’s best QB since Brett Favre, and the veteran starter should easily pick apart Central Florida in a key game necessary for Southern Miss to make their 6<SUP>th</SUP> bowl game in 7 years. Look for a Golden Eagles light show in the passing game on homecoming night.
Auburn (-7.5) ARKANSAS
- Auburn has won SU and ATS the last two meetings in this series and look for them to continue the trend this season. The Tigers are 4-1, while Arkansas has struggled their way to their 2-3 record with their only 1-A win coming at the expense of a middle-tier Sun Belt team in La-Monroe. Arkansas has dropped games to Vanderbilt, USC, and Alabama, and I expect QB Brandon Cox and the rest of the Auburn offense to continue their success in their first road game. Auburn has looked good covering big spreads thus far this season and the 7.5 one this week seems that lines-makers are trying to encourage Razorback betting.
Akron (+13.5) MIAMI-OHIO
- Akron QB Luke Getsy has done much better than anticipated filling the shoes of departed All-American QB Charlie Frye by completing 51.2% of his passes for 1423 yards with an 11-6 TD-INT ratio through 5 games. He has also lead Akron to 3 wins this season over Middle Tennessee St, Buffalo, and the big upset against MAC power Northern Illinois. Senior QB Josh Betts has looked good for Miami-Ohio so far, but the rest of the team is not playing up to potential; hence the 2-3 record. The Redhawks are coming off a 38-27 loss last week to the same Northern Illinois team that Akron beat. I think Miami-Ohio is giving up much too many points in the spread to Akron this week in what has the makings to be a hard-fought game with a single-digit outcome. Look at the money line in this one as well, but I am confident in Akron ATS in a game that should only be a 10 point spread. It is obvious the lines-makers wanted to encourage Miami-Ohio betting by having this one look enticing at 13.5 points.
New Mexico St (+20) HAWAII
- New Mexico St is not as bad as their record may indicate. With UTEP, Colorado, New Mexico, California, and Fresno St as 5 of their first 6 games, opening the season at 0-6 is not a surprise. New Mexico St did not look great at Louisiana Tech two weeks ago in a 34-14 loss, but then again, the 20 point favorite in this one is coming off a 46-14 rout at the hands of that same Louisiana Tech team last week. Hawaii has also had a tough schedule with their only win of the year coming against lowly Idaho. The Rainbow Warriors are tough at home, playing Boise St closer than anticipated two weeks back. The New Mexico St game is their homecoming game, so I am expecting a Hawaii win, but nowhere in the range of the 20 points the spread is predicting. Look for New Mexico St to keep it close as the more effective signal-caller Royal Gill (5TD-7INT) settles in to overtake Joey Vincent (0TD-6INT) at QB.
Connecticut (-8) CINCINNATI
- Both teams graduated NFL caliber QB’s last year but it has been Junior QB Matt Bonisklawski for Connecticut who has picked up the slack and lead Connecticut to their 4-1 record. The Huskies now turn to Redshirt Freshman QB D.J. Hernandez who finished off Syracuse last week in place of Bonisklawski who is sidelined 8 weeks with a broken left collarbone. Cincinnati, however, has not been that fortunate as they are only 1-3 in 1-A games so far this year with that win being a close 28-26 game at home against Eastern Michigan to open the season. This spread is way too small as Connecticut has won convincingly in each of their 4 wins this season (Buffalo 38-0, Liberty 59-0, Army 47-13, Syracuse 26-7). Connecticut’s only loss was on the road in their third game against the ACC power Georgia Tech. Look for Connecticut’s Big East leading defense to put pressure on young Cincinnati QB Dustin Grutza and help him to add in a negative way to his already struggling 5-9 TD-INT ratio this year. Connecticut RB Terry Caulley has played excellent with 427 yards and 6 TD’s thus far. Look for him to have a big game against the struggling Bearcats’ run defense.
Northwestern (+7.5 / +250) PURDUE
- After their 51-48 win over Wisconsin last week, it is hard not to bet with Northwestern at +7.5 in this spot against Purdue. At 2-3, Purdue has dropped consecutive home games to Notre Dame and Michigan, while Northwestern has looked good at 3-2, coming closer than anyone to beating Penn St after their close 34-29 loss in the final minutes to the Lions two weeks back. It is Purdue’s homecoming game, and if Joe Tiller drops another Big 10 home game you may see his job gone after this season, so look for the Boilermakers to play inspired football. However, Purdue has dropped three in a row (reminiscent of their slide last year) and Northwestern is hot, making this one look like a 50/50 game and a big play on Northwestern at +7.5. Check out the money line as well as this one can easily go either way.
Utah St (+32.5) FRESNO ST
- Utah St in my eyes is better than they have been in past years as they sit pretty with a 2-2 overall and 1-1 WAC record. However, the Aggies have a huge test on the road against the red hot Fresno St Bulldogs this week. But like I said before, this is an improving Utah St team under head coach Brent Guy who was brought in to stop the bleeding and put an end to the seasons that mimicked the 3-8 one last year. Fresno St will win this one at home but I think the high spread is giving too much credit to the 3-1 Bulldogs. The Utah St defense will keep this respectable and I see it almost impossible for them to lose by more than 31.
