[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EARLY "POSITION TAKING" MAKING IT TOUGH TO READ SHARP'S INTENTIONS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I promised to let you know today what the sharps are thinking about the Sweet 16 games scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Normally that's not a difficult task at all.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's say it's a football weekend...and Oklahoma is laying 13 points. Sharps KNOW that the public is going to bet the Sooners and drive the line up. They get in at a cheap price. They can just stick with that bet and root for the Sooners. Or, they can shoot a middle once the line goes up to 15 or 16 and hope the game lands in the right window. Or, they can come back over the top on the underdog (which might make sense with a strong defensive opponent) and have a "bet" on the underdog that also includes middle possibilities. In other words, they have one unit on Oklahoma -13, two units on the dog +15, and they win three units if the game lands on 14. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This week in the Sweet 16, there was a lot of position taking! You are surely aware by now that fully 14 of the 16 teams seeded to reach this round are still alive. That means there are big name teams all over the place. The public will be betting them. Sharps will be doing what they can to create value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As you'll see in a moment, most games moved toward the favorite off the opener. I've talked to as many sharps as I can to figure out what the last second action is going to be like. I don't believe that the sharps like THIS many favorites. You can't tell from the early action though when they'll be coming over the top, and when they'll just let the favorite money ride. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We'll go game by game to outline the possibilities. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THURSDAY'S GAMES IN BOSTON[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]XAVIER VS. PITTSBURGH:[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Pittsburgh opened at -6½, and moved up to -7. It's not like the sharps to lay points with a struggling team. Pitt lost its opener at the Big East tournament, then failed to cover in the first rounds here. I think this is likely to be a position-taking bet that will set up a Xavier play at better numbers. You still hear TV guys picking Pittsburgh to go all the way because they've got so much talent. The public will hear that all week and lay the wood. The size of the comeback will be based on how much the line moves. Sharps won't play much at +7, will play more at +7½, and will really step in at +8 in my opinion. If the line doesn't move, sharps will have a decision to make about buying off their early position. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]VILLANOVA VS. DUKE: Here's the only clear case of the eight games. The sharps like VILLANOVA! They opened at +3 and are down to +2 as I write this. Duke is a big name team that the public wants to bet. So, for this line to move DOWN, the sharps really have to love the dog. They knew other sharps wanted Villanova too, and they took the three points on the opener. If the public comes in on Duke and brings the line back up...sharps will step in again and take anything at +3 or better. No mystery here. The sharps like Villanova. [/FONT]
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THURDAY'S GAMES IN PHOENIX[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PURDUE VS. CONNECTICUT: There was a big jump here at first on the favorite, as Connecticut went from -5½ to -7. We've seen some buyback already...and the line is -6½ in most places as I write this. The fact that the buyback is already happening tells you the sharps are looking at the dog here. But, they want to get at least seven points. The public may help them out with that during the course of Thursday afternoon. Connecticut is one of the few power teams to look really great so far. They'll be the square betting side. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MISSOURI VS. MEMPHIS: The big move here was on the Over. The totals didn't move much in the first three games I've discussed. The opener here went from 137 to 141½. You don't often seen moves of more than four points this late in the season. That suggests very strong passion for the Over at 137, 138, 139, and 140. Of course, you probably won't see those numbers yourself on game day. Just be aware that a buyback DIDN'T happen at 139, 140, or 141. The sharps like where they're at with the Over. The team side line has moved from Memphis -3 to Memphis -4½. Note that we didn't see the buyback yet here that was clear in the UCONN game. That tells me that the sharps do like Memphis at the cheap number. They'll consider a middle possibility if the line goes higher. They may not be coming back over the top though to create a play on the underdog. Memphis did look great against Maryland last week...and destroyed Michigan State last year in this round. Sharps don't play many big favorites...but they'll lay low numbers with teams who have reasons to play well that night. [/FONT]
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FRIDAY'S GAMES IN INDIANAPOLIS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARIZONA VS. LOUISVILLE: I was surprised this line went up from Louisville -8½ to Louisville -9 on the opener. The sharps generally like underdogs of this size...and have been betting Pac 10 teams so far in the tournament. Since Arizona has been covering spreads, and Louisville hasn't...it would be odd for the Wise Guys to lay a number like this. I expect this one to be position taking to set up a middle when the public comes in to lay single digits or -10 with a number one seed. I can't prove it to you now. I think when the money starts to come in Friday that the sharps will be rooting for the underdog regardless of this early move. Note that the total here jumped from 136½ to 139½. That's a large three-point move. Oddsmakers have been losing this year to sharp totals players...they'll move the number quickly when they see which way the wind is blowing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS VS. MICHIGAN STATE: We saw a big jump here from pick-em to -2 for Michigan State. I'm seeing -1½ now in most places, so there was some buyback on Kansas at +2. I was a little surprised to see this considering how well the Big 12 has done in this tournament. I mentioned earlier in the week that the league was 10-2 ATS in the first two rounds. Baylor of the Big 12 just reached the Final Four of the NIT too. My guess is that the Michigan State guys wanted to act quickly in case pick-em and -1 disappeared. The Kansas guys figured they wait and see what happened given the public's tendency to bet the superior seed. They were happy to take +2 when they saw it after the sharps on MSU pushed the number that high. My take from talking to people is that the sharps are relatively split on this game...and the early one-sided action had more to do with timing than anything else. [/FONT]
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FRIDAY'S GAMES IN MEMPHIS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SYRACUSE VS. OKLAHOMA: The total here has fallen three points, from 156 down to 153. Syracuse is known for playing defense...and this is a very tall total for a game where a zone defense is going to be played. That's another big totals move without any buyback yet. That makes the sharp inklings as clear as can be. Oklahoma has been bet to a 1-point favorite from pick-em. The public usually bets on the better seed, so that may just be position taking to set up a middle rather than any true passion at all. Oklahoma is from the hot Big 12...but nobody's hotter than Syracuse lately. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GONZAGA VS. NORTH CAROLINA: A lot of action here. The total jumped three points from 160 to 163. Though, I have seen some buyback lately bringing the number down to 162½. Money came in on the favored Tar Heels early, moving an opener of -7 up to -8½. If there's one team we KNOW the public will bet, it's North Carolina. Everyone keeps saying they're the favorite to win the whole tournament still. So, this is likely to be position-taking to set up a play on Gonzaga at a better number. Note that many sharps were hurt with this strategy last year against Washington State in this round. Gonzaga's from the same state. Wonder if we'll see the same result? [/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]EARLY "POSITION TAKING" MAKING IT TOUGH TO READ SHARP'S INTENTIONS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I promised to let you know today what the sharps are thinking about the Sweet 16 games scheduled for Thursday and Friday. Normally that's not a difficult task at all.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the sharps like the favorite, they bet it early.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the sharps like the dog, they wait until the last second to bet.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the sharps LOVE the dog, and they're favored that other sharps are also going to be on the dog, THEN they'll act early and bring the line down. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's say it's a football weekend...and Oklahoma is laying 13 points. Sharps KNOW that the public is going to bet the Sooners and drive the line up. They get in at a cheap price. They can just stick with that bet and root for the Sooners. Or, they can shoot a middle once the line goes up to 15 or 16 and hope the game lands in the right window. Or, they can come back over the top on the underdog (which might make sense with a strong defensive opponent) and have a "bet" on the underdog that also includes middle possibilities. In other words, they have one unit on Oklahoma -13, two units on the dog +15, and they win three units if the game lands on 14. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This week in the Sweet 16, there was a lot of position taking! You are surely aware by now that fully 14 of the 16 teams seeded to reach this round are still alive. That means there are big name teams all over the place. The public will be betting them. Sharps will be doing what they can to create value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As you'll see in a moment, most games moved toward the favorite off the opener. I've talked to as many sharps as I can to figure out what the last second action is going to be like. I don't believe that the sharps like THIS many favorites. You can't tell from the early action though when they'll be coming over the top, and when they'll just let the favorite money ride. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We'll go game by game to outline the possibilities. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]THURSDAY'S GAMES IN BOSTON[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]XAVIER VS. PITTSBURGH:[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Pittsburgh opened at -6½, and moved up to -7. It's not like the sharps to lay points with a struggling team. Pitt lost its opener at the Big East tournament, then failed to cover in the first rounds here. I think this is likely to be a position-taking bet that will set up a Xavier play at better numbers. You still hear TV guys picking Pittsburgh to go all the way because they've got so much talent. The public will hear that all week and lay the wood. The size of the comeback will be based on how much the line moves. Sharps won't play much at +7, will play more at +7½, and will really step in at +8 in my opinion. If the line doesn't move, sharps will have a decision to make about buying off their early position. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]VILLANOVA VS. DUKE: Here's the only clear case of the eight games. The sharps like VILLANOVA! They opened at +3 and are down to +2 as I write this. Duke is a big name team that the public wants to bet. So, for this line to move DOWN, the sharps really have to love the dog. They knew other sharps wanted Villanova too, and they took the three points on the opener. If the public comes in on Duke and brings the line back up...sharps will step in again and take anything at +3 or better. No mystery here. The sharps like Villanova. [/FONT]
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THURDAY'S GAMES IN PHOENIX[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PURDUE VS. CONNECTICUT: There was a big jump here at first on the favorite, as Connecticut went from -5½ to -7. We've seen some buyback already...and the line is -6½ in most places as I write this. The fact that the buyback is already happening tells you the sharps are looking at the dog here. But, they want to get at least seven points. The public may help them out with that during the course of Thursday afternoon. Connecticut is one of the few power teams to look really great so far. They'll be the square betting side. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MISSOURI VS. MEMPHIS: The big move here was on the Over. The totals didn't move much in the first three games I've discussed. The opener here went from 137 to 141½. You don't often seen moves of more than four points this late in the season. That suggests very strong passion for the Over at 137, 138, 139, and 140. Of course, you probably won't see those numbers yourself on game day. Just be aware that a buyback DIDN'T happen at 139, 140, or 141. The sharps like where they're at with the Over. The team side line has moved from Memphis -3 to Memphis -4½. Note that we didn't see the buyback yet here that was clear in the UCONN game. That tells me that the sharps do like Memphis at the cheap number. They'll consider a middle possibility if the line goes higher. They may not be coming back over the top though to create a play on the underdog. Memphis did look great against Maryland last week...and destroyed Michigan State last year in this round. Sharps don't play many big favorites...but they'll lay low numbers with teams who have reasons to play well that night. [/FONT]
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FRIDAY'S GAMES IN INDIANAPOLIS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ARIZONA VS. LOUISVILLE: I was surprised this line went up from Louisville -8½ to Louisville -9 on the opener. The sharps generally like underdogs of this size...and have been betting Pac 10 teams so far in the tournament. Since Arizona has been covering spreads, and Louisville hasn't...it would be odd for the Wise Guys to lay a number like this. I expect this one to be position taking to set up a middle when the public comes in to lay single digits or -10 with a number one seed. I can't prove it to you now. I think when the money starts to come in Friday that the sharps will be rooting for the underdog regardless of this early move. Note that the total here jumped from 136½ to 139½. That's a large three-point move. Oddsmakers have been losing this year to sharp totals players...they'll move the number quickly when they see which way the wind is blowing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS VS. MICHIGAN STATE: We saw a big jump here from pick-em to -2 for Michigan State. I'm seeing -1½ now in most places, so there was some buyback on Kansas at +2. I was a little surprised to see this considering how well the Big 12 has done in this tournament. I mentioned earlier in the week that the league was 10-2 ATS in the first two rounds. Baylor of the Big 12 just reached the Final Four of the NIT too. My guess is that the Michigan State guys wanted to act quickly in case pick-em and -1 disappeared. The Kansas guys figured they wait and see what happened given the public's tendency to bet the superior seed. They were happy to take +2 when they saw it after the sharps on MSU pushed the number that high. My take from talking to people is that the sharps are relatively split on this game...and the early one-sided action had more to do with timing than anything else. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
FRIDAY'S GAMES IN MEMPHIS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SYRACUSE VS. OKLAHOMA: The total here has fallen three points, from 156 down to 153. Syracuse is known for playing defense...and this is a very tall total for a game where a zone defense is going to be played. That's another big totals move without any buyback yet. That makes the sharp inklings as clear as can be. Oklahoma has been bet to a 1-point favorite from pick-em. The public usually bets on the better seed, so that may just be position taking to set up a middle rather than any true passion at all. Oklahoma is from the hot Big 12...but nobody's hotter than Syracuse lately. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]GONZAGA VS. NORTH CAROLINA: A lot of action here. The total jumped three points from 160 to 163. Though, I have seen some buyback lately bringing the number down to 162½. Money came in on the favored Tar Heels early, moving an opener of -7 up to -8½. If there's one team we KNOW the public will bet, it's North Carolina. Everyone keeps saying they're the favorite to win the whole tournament still. So, this is likely to be position-taking to set up a play on Gonzaga at a better number. Note that many sharps were hurt with this strategy last year against Washington State in this round. Gonzaga's from the same state. Wonder if we'll see the same result? [/FONT]
