Early Plays w/POW (8-2)

[PRatings]

27-17 all football plays, 8-2 POW, 1-0 GOM.

POW/GOM: Auburn -1.5
This is a very big play for me. My numbers show Auburn as a 13 pt favorite (11.5 pts value - big value for my ratings). LSU inexperienced in key positions. Starting QB = freshman, 1st ever road start. Leading RB and WR's also freshmen. Auburn QB =senior, 2 leading RB = seniors, WR's mostly juniors. Big revenge game for Auburn.

SMiss + 7.5 -110 - I think the wrong team is favored here but we'll see...

More plays later...

 

[PRatings]

LSU #4 USAToday/ESPN and #5 AP
Auburn #15 USAToday/ESPN and #14 AP

Auburn favored. Love Auburn this week ! Auburn by 10-14.

 

[PRatings]

Rice +1.5 POW
Rice will dominate the line of scrimmage and get a revenge here. Rice 16-2 SU / 15-4 ATS home revenge and 15-1-1 ATS as home dog. Hawaii 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS first road game, 0-5 SU and ATS if it was also a -3/+3 game. Hawaii 5-12 ATS as road Conf. fav. Rice underrated, Hawaii suck, and suck big time.

 

[PRatings]

Iowa State -2.5
Iowa State is back. N.Illinois not that good this year.

 

[PRatings]

New Mexico State +10.5 -118
Michigan State +3.5

Same system, same situation for both teams. Good home dogs (MST 22-9 ATS, NMXST 8-1 ats) in good spot (MST 10-1 SU 2nd home game, NMXST 13-4 ATS 1st home game), facing teams in a letdown spot (after a home win as 10+ underdog, 7-16 SU and 6-15-2 ATS in last 2+ years)and in a historically bad situation (ND 1-5 SU, 1-6 ATS 2nd @ game in sept. last 11 years, TRST 0-3 SU 2nd @ game since joining D-IA).

 

[PRatings]

Kentucky -1

Indiana will not be able to win @ Kentucky. They will experience a letdown against a well rested team with a 14-3 SU record at home vs non conference opponents, and 8-0 SU record home vs Indy when favored. Indiana won at Oregon thanks to Oregon's 7 turnovers. Oregon had 297 TY more than Ind, (246 PY) and their rushing avg. was better by 3.0. My numbers say Kentucky -7.

 

[PRatings]

Recap :

POW/GOM: Auburn -1.5
POW: Rice +1.5
POW: MDTST -2.5
SMiss + 7.5 -110
Iowa State -2.5
New Mexico State +10.5 -118
Michigan State +3.5
Kentucky -1

More plays (mostly Div. I-AA) will be added later this week.

 

[PRatings]

POW: MDTST -2.5
FA third straight @ game. From Hawaii to Tennessee, via Texas. They have a very good team but this time the fatigue factor will have a major impact on them. MDTST will go for a revenge here and they are 10-3 ATS in last 13 revenge games, 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS when favored.

 

[yimmy9]

Auburn is the dog

 

[yimmy9]

nevermind my post

 

[PRatings]

yimmy9, NP.

 

[PRatings]

28-17 (62,22%) all football plays, 9-2 POW (81,82%), 1-0 GOM (100 %).

 

[PRatings]

S.Miss. game has been cancelled. Taking Cincy instead.

POW/GOM: Auburn -1.5
POW: Rice +1.5
POW: MDTST -2.5
Cincinnati -1
Iowa State -2.5
New Mexico State +10.5 -118
Michigan State +3.5
Kentucky -1

 

[PRatings]

POW: BYU +28.5 -140

I know it is a big (POW) play for me, but I will lay the chalk here and buy it up to 28.5...just in case...This could be a game where USC lays the egg. The second road game of the season has been brutal for USC in recent years...Last year = loss at Cali, only loss of the season, 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in last 5 years, 5-9 ATS if favored. And BYU is looking for some revenge.They are 21-3 SU in their second home game of the season, 25-8 SU in home revenge games. I really believe that they have a better team this year, and USC is not as good as last year. And last year USC won by 17 at home. Finally, this is a classic example of a game where two teams had opposite results the week before. The linemakers have to adjust the line, and the betting public (generally with short memory)will bet the more successifull team in the previous week. I love being on the other side in a situation like this. BYU (L SU/ATS last week) will cover this spread against USC (W SU/ATS last week) !

 

[BigPete]

Hoops good job last week. I had feeling you would do well.

As an Auburn fan, I am lil scared this week, but love the angle when the lower ranked team is favored over the higher just like last year vs UT.

Indiana should be a on big hangover and UK has owned them lately. They should be exposed this week.

I didnt see the Iowa State game, have they turned things around enough to beat No Ill?

 

[PRatings]

Thanks BigPete. I really like Auburn this week for several reasons. One of the reasons is the running game. Auburn can really take advantage of LSU R-Defense if they try to run left and right more, not only to the middle. LSU allowing 7.94 RYC left&right, Auburn averaging 9.59 RYC left&right. LSU will run to the middle a lot, but Auburn is very good there defensively. LSU's 50 pts win over ARKST doesn't scare me one bit. ARKST lost by 49 @ UTST, by 55 @ MISS, by 47 @ Tulsa last year. They lost big @ MIZOU this year, but Mizou is not that good. So, it's not a big deal if you beat ARKST by 50 at home. LSU barely edged ORST in week 1, the same team that got hammered at Boise the following week. As for Auburn, no mercy against Monroe & Miss.St. No look ahead before this matchup either. Auburn is simply the best of two teams and they want it more.

Iowa State is a small play for me, but I do think that they will have a stellar season this year. They improved and N.Illinois is not as good as lst 2 years. My ratings show IOST -9.


E.Michigan +10.5 -115
Yes, Toledo is better than E.Michigan, but they are not as good as advertised. Third consecutive @ game for them, going into revenge. E.Michigan 14-7 ATS L21 home revenge, and 10-5 ATS L15 home revenge as 10+ dogs. They also won L2 and covered L3 as home underdog. E.Michigan by 2 FG, not more.

 

[PRatings]

I have a few more Div I-A leans but I will play/post those picks only if the early Saturday games show some profit.

Div. I-AA plays coming up later this week.

Recap:

28-17 (62,22%) all football plays, 9-2 POW (81,82%), 1-0 GOM

POW/GOM: Auburn -1.5
POW: Rice +1.5
POW: MDTST -2.5
POW: BYU +28.5 -140
E.Michigan +10.5 -115
Cincinnati -1
Iowa State -2.5
New Mexico State +10.5 -118
Michigan State +3.5
Kentucky -1

 

[PRatings]

A lot of 2nd Division plays this week...

Texas State -7 POW
Georgia Southern -2.5 POW
Montana State -2
ST.Peters +7
UMass -13.5
William and Mary +8
San Diego +23.5
Gardner Webb +18.5

 

[PITBULL]

Be careful on that USC/BYU game. I know 28.5 pts at home looks very attractive but I have USC by 44 in this game. I think this is gonna be really ugly.

 

[REML]

Hoops- I really like the Auburn play. I just read on ESPN that they are still not sure if they are going to play, and, if they do, there may not be a ton of people there, that is a concern. I am not anti-LSU but neither QB they have is very good right now and a big loud crowd seems like it would really expose LSU's sub-par offense. I still think they have a great defense but see Auburn getting good field position the whole game.