Early Line Movement

JimmyJet · Sep 7, 2009

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Will start this thread to document early line movement and how accurate the early money is on predicting the right side. Lets allow the results to inform us if there is an edge to be gained by following early money. For the purpose of tracking will limit these to 1.0 point moves or greater and will list the side that is reflecting the money being bet early. Lines used will be from SBR and based on the opener at 5Dimes. If the line moves 1.0 points or greater that side will be listed. No recommendation is being made on these just will educate us all as to value of watching early money moves. The movement must have taken place in the first 24 hours after the opening to qualify.

Florida State -3.5 to -5

North Carolina -3.5 to -5

Army pk to -2.5

Fresno State +9 to +8

Indiana pk to -1.5

Troy +37 to +36

Boston College -19 to -21.5

East Carolina +7 to +6

BYU -17.5 TO -18.5

Wyoming +34 to +33

Virginia +12 to +11

Oklahoma State -14.5 to -15.5

UCLA +9.5 to +7.5

Texas Tech -25 to -26.5

Washington State +3 to +2

LSU -14 to -15

North Texas +3.5 to +2.5

Miami-Ohio +36 to +35

USC -6 to -7

Oregon -9 to -11.5

UNLV +8.5 to +6

Lines monitored at 11:00 am EST September 7th. Possible for greater movement than documented within the first 24 hours for the September 6th opening lines. Will in future post after first 24 hours has expired.

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bellyputter · Sep 7, 2009

Many of your openers are wrong.

eckleybuck88 · Sep 7, 2009

save you some time:

http://www.scoresandodds.com/

JimmyJet · Sep 7, 2009

bellyputter said:
Many of your openers are wrong.

My openers are taken from SBR and reflect the opening line at 5Dimes. Openers may differ at different books.

JimmyJet · Sep 7, 2009

eckleybuck88 said:
save you some time:

http://www.scoresandodds.com/

How does this save me time? I am using opening lines from 5Dimes as I stated in my post. Qualifiers will be based on movement at 5Dimes in the first 24 hours of 1 or more points. :think2:

JimmyJet · Sep 7, 2009

Add:

Wake Forest -1.5 to -2.5

Michigan +4.5 to +3.5

No more additions....will post record when games are completed.

JimmyJet · Sep 17, 2009

Early money record 9-12

Week of Sept 17th -21st

Fresno State +10 to +7

Army -7 to -8

Northern Illinois +13 to +12

Michigan -22.5 to -24.5

East Carolina +8 to +6

Kansas -19 to -22

Toledo +21 to +20

Kentucky -10 to -13.5

Wyoming +7.5 to +6.5

So Mississippi -14.5 to -16.5

Washington +22.5 to +20.5

Michigan St +11 to +10

Florida -27.5 to -29

Middle Tenn St +7 to +5.5

Iowa -5 to -6

SMU -4.5 TO -7

Navy +7.5 to +6.5

Northwestern -3 to -4

Oklahoma St -31 to -32

Texas A & M -17 TO -18

BYU -6 TO -7

Air Force -16 to -17.5

Auburn -4.5 to -7

Arkansas +1.5 to -1

UTEP -13 TO -14

San Jose St +18.5 to +17.5

UCLA -10.5 to -12

UNLV -6 TO -7

ArizonaBound · Sep 17, 2009

Army pk to -2.5

Sure that wasn't Duke pk to -2.5? I cant access SBR, but Scoresandodds shows Duke moving from PK to -2.5. If so they covered and the record would be off by one. Thanks for sharing the info.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 summary="" border=0><TBODY><TR class=game_time><TD class="first left">12:00 PM EDT</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=notescol> </TD></TR><TR class=game_team><TD class="first nowrap">321 duke</TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>-1 / -1.5 / -2 </TD><TD>-2.5 </TD><TD>-140 </TD><TD class="left last ">35 Over 43.5 </TD><TD class=notescol> </TD></TR><TR class=game_team><TD class="first nowrap">322 army</TD><TD>PK -01 </TD><TD>42.5 / 44 / 44.5 </TD><TD>43.5 </TD><TD>+120 </TD><TD class="left last ">19 final </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ArizonaBound · Sep 17, 2009

Not sure 1 pt move is enough to learn anything, but won't know until you monitor. 2 pt moves or more wnet 4-1 (UCLA, BC, UNLV, Duke? winners, Oregon loser).?

1.5 moves went 2-2

just something to watch

ArizonaBound · Sep 17, 2009

I'd be interested to see how the games that move 2 or more pts and either cross or land on a key number. This week

Fresno +10 to +7
E Car +8 to +6
Kansas -19 to -22
Wash +22' to +20'
SMU -4' to -7
Auburn -4' to -7
Ark +1.5 to -1

Last week 3 games moved 2 or more pts early and crossed key numbers:
BC crossed 21 and covered
UNLV dropped below 7 and covered
Oregon moved over 10 and did not cover
2W-1L

SpreadDestroyerr · Sep 17, 2009

Maybe the refs bet on Sun. night or Monday morning??????

JimmyJet · Sep 17, 2009

Arizona Bound said:
Army pk to -2.5

Sure that wasn't Duke pk to -2.5? I cant access SBR, but Scoresandodds shows Duke moving from PK to -2.5. If so they covered and the record would be off by one. Thanks for sharing the info.

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 summary=""><TBODY><TR class=game_time><TD class="first left">12:00 PM EDT</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD class=notescol></TD></TR><TR class=game_team><TD class="first nowrap">321 duke</TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>-1 / -1.5 / -2 </TD><TD>-2.5 </TD><TD>-140 </TD><TD class="left last ">35 Over 43.5 </TD><TD class=notescol></TD></TR><TR class=game_team><TD class="first nowrap">322 army</TD><TD>PK -01 </TD><TD>42.5 / 44 / 44.5 </TD><TD>43.5 </TD><TD>+120 </TD><TD class="left last ">19 final </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I have Army above moving from 7 to 8. Maybe you are looking at wrong week. Army is at home against Ball State.

TFULL09 · Sep 17, 2009

The Duke from 2.5 to pick was from last week against Army...you guys are talking about 2 different games now.

ArizonaBound · Sep 18, 2009

TFULL09 said:
The Duke from 2.5 to pick was from last week against Army...you guys are talking about 2 different games now.

Yep, I was referring to last weeks duke/army game

good luck this week

linebets · Sep 18, 2009

A&M moved to -19.5

JimmyJet · Sep 18, 2009

sorry Arizona...maybe posted that one wrong in first week.

JimmyJet · Sep 20, 2009

Early money record 9-12

Week of Sept 17th -21st

Fresno State +10 to +7 L

Army -7 to -8 L

Northern Illinois +13 to +12 W

Michigan -22.5 to -24.5 W

East Carolina +8 to +6 L

Kansas -19 to -22 W

Toledo +21 to +20 L

Kentucky -10 to -13.5 L

Wyoming +7.5 to +6.5 L

So Mississippi -14.5 to -16.5 L

Washington +22.5 to +20.5 W

Michigan St +11 to +10 W

Florida -27.5 to -29 L

Middle Tenn St +7 to +5.5 W

Iowa -5 to -6 W

SMU -4.5 TO -7 W

Navy +7.5 to +6.5 L

Northwestern -3 to -4 L

Oklahoma St -31 to -32 L

Texas A & M -17 TO -18 L

BYU -6 TO -7 L

Air Force -16 to -17.5 W

Auburn -4.5 to -7 W

Arkansas +1.5 to -1 L

UTEP -13 TO -14 W

San Jose St +18.5 to +17.5 L

UCLA -10.5 to -12 W

UNLV -6 TO -7 L

Record 12-16

Record to date 21-28

Early money loses again....

JimmyJet · Sep 22, 2009

Early Money Record to date 21-28

South Carolina +4.5 to +3

Nevada +8 to +7

Michigan -19.5 to -21

Cinncinnati -14.5 to -16

Florida St -12.5 to -14.5

Miss St +14 to +13

Wake Forest +1.5 to -2

San Diego St +17 to +15.5

NC State pk to -1

Miami -1.5 to -2.5

Arkansas St -1 to -2

Kentucky +22.5 to +21.5

Boise St -15.5 to -17

Tenn -10.5 to -21...9.5 move??

Auburn -31 to -32.5

North Texas +7.5 to +6

Toledo pk to -1.5

Utah -11.5 to -13

Oregon St +2 to +1

Rice +8.5 to +7.5

USC -43 TO -44

JimmyJet · Sep 28, 2009

Record 7-14 Week 4

Record to date 28-42......early money not so smart.....

JimmyJet · Sep 29, 2009

Starting Wednesday 30th of September Record to date 28-42

West Virginia -17 to -18

Marshall +3 to +2

Minnesota -1 to -3

Clemson -13 to -14

Virginia +14 to +13

Toledo -6 to -7

Virginia Tech -15.5 to -17

Michigan State +2.5 to PK

Cinncinnatti -26.5 to -29

Iowa St -1 to -3

NC State Pk to -1

Buffalo +9 to +8

Memphis +9 to +7

Stanford -5 to -6.5

New Mexico +36 to +35

UL Monroe -2.5 to -5

Ohio +3 to +1.5

Arkansas -1.5 to -2.5

California +6.5 to +5.5

Arkansas St +21 to +20

Houston -15 to -16.5

Oregon -31 to -32