Early Divisional lines

[dsong]

Let's discuss early lines (and projected lines) for the quarterfinals. Future books analysis will follow.

Atlanta -4 over Seattle, 49

I was expecting a much lower line based on future book odds and Seattle's performance last night. Would've loved the Falcons at -3, but anything higher is a bit much. At +4.5 Seattle is probably the value side.

As for the total it looks low. Falcons at home - enough said. Unless I'm mistaken there hasn't been a game where the scoring was under 50 points.

Projected lines:

New England -13 over Houston
New England -13 over Miami
Kansas City -2.5 over Pittsburgh
Kansas City -7.5 over Houston
Dallas -4.5 over NY Giants
Dallas -3.5 over Green Bay

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Atl defense gives up a lot of points in the second half of games and Seahawks are a never give up team.

 

[dsong]

Atlanta up to -4.5 now; total at 51. Seahawks time?

Even at 51 I have no interest on the under. At 51.5 it might be worth trying for a middle if you're sitting on a O49 position.

 

[dsong]

New England -16 over Houston, 44.5

Man, that's a high line. If this is correct you should back up the truck on New England to win the Super Bowl at even money or better.

Pittsburgh -1 over Kansas City, 46.5

I expect Kansas City to close as the favorite, maybe -1 or -1.5.

 

[dsong]

Dallas -4 over Green Bay, 51.5

I expect public money to flow on Green Bay and knock it down to -3.5. Outside chance of -3.

I don't expect sharps to jump in until -3 or so, unless their goal is to steer the market so that they can double down at -3.

As for the total, expect this one to drop to 50.5 or 51.

 

[jasonc69]

Dallas -4 over Green Bay, 51.5

I expect public money to flow on Green Bay and knock it down to -3.5. Outside chance of -3.

I don't expect sharps to jump in until -3 or so, unless their goal is to steer the market so that they can double down at -3.

As for the total, expect this one to drop to 50.5 or 51.

So many Cowboy fans in this country will probably keep it there.

 

[dsong]

Future books analysis:

My odds:

AFC

Team	HR	AR	Conf.	SB
New England	0	3	0.596	0.379
Kansas City	4.5	7.5	0.191	0.095
Pittsburgh	3.5	6	0.176	0.096
Houston	10.5	13	0.037	0.012

NFC

Team	HR	AR	Conf.	SB
Dallas	4	7	0.374	0.161
Atlanta	4.5	7.5	0.286	0.119
Seattle	5.5	8	0.176	0.070
Green Bay	5	7.5	0.164	0.068

Betfair implied odds:

AFC

Team	HR	AR	Conf.	SB
New England	1	4	0.547	0.332
Kansas City	4.5	7.5	0.204	0.102
Pittsburgh	3	5.5	0.205	0.115
Houston	10	12.5	0.045	0.016

NFC

Team	HR	AR	Conf.	SB
Dallas	4.5	7.5	0.331	0.144
Atlanta	5.5	8.5	0.258	0.104
Seattle	6	8.5	0.174	0.070
Green Bay	3	5.5	0.237	0.118

Point spread implied odds:

AFC

Team	Conf.	SB
New England	0.700	0.480
Kansas City	0.132	0.067
Pittsburgh	0.142	0.076
Houston	0.026	0.011

NFC

Team	Conf.	SB
Dallas	0.433	0.161
Atlanta	0.291	0.104
Seattle	0.134	0.048
Green Bay	0.142	0.055

Obviously, the point spread market and the futures market are not consistent. Good luck in exploiting market inefficiencies! Hopefully my analysis will prove to be a useful guide.

 

[dsong]

Updated lines:

Atlanta -4.5, 51.5
New England -15.5, 44.5
Kansas City -2, 45
Dallas -4.5, 52

Best play might be the under on Dallas-Green Bay. Seattle and Green Bay look pretty tempting plus the points. Looking suspiciously like a teaser week...

 

[dsong]

Lookahead semifinal odds (5Dimes):

Pittsburgh -10 over Houston
Kansas City -7.5 over Houston
New England -3.5 over Pittsburgh
New England -7 over Kansas City

Green Bay -1.5 over Seattle
Dallas -3 over Seattle
Atlanta PK over Green Bay
Dallas -3 over Atlanta

My projected semifinal lines:

Pittsburgh -6 over Houston
Kansas City -4 over Houston
New England -7 over Pittsburgh
New England -9 over Kansas City

Seattle -2.5 over Green Bay
Dallas -4 over Seattle
Atlanta -3 over Green Bay
Dallas -4.5 over Atlanta

Good luck! Hopefully this gives you some leads on futures and props!

 

[dsong]

My corrected projected semifinal lines:

Dallas -4.5 over Seattle
Dallas -4 over Atlanta

 

[bones1980]

My corrected projected semifinal lines:

Dallas -4.5 over Seattle
Dallas -4 over Atlanta

Dallas won't be there

 

[dsong]

Dallas won't be there

I have odds posted up for Houston, LOL.

 

[dsong]

Well, now it's pretty clear how this should have been played:

Atlanta to win NFC at +300 or better (widely available before Wild Card round)
Dallas to win NFC at +150 or better (widely available before Wild Card round)
ML on Seattle & Green Bay

Congratulations to those who pulled off the scalp.