I am new to betting MMA so this may just be stupid.
But I am looking at 5Dimes odds for the UFC 100 card and taking guys inside the distance in 5 round fights seems to be great value.
First off I really like Lesner, GSP, and Hendo all to win. But especially in teh GSP-Alves fight...GSP is -280 but only -170 for winning inside the distance. Alves is +240 but +441 inside the distance. Most of these 5 round fights do not go the distance. And look at the fighters. You have GSP who has his only losses coming via sub and TKO. Then Alves with his only losses coming by TKO and sub. And when they win they finish. GSP went 5 rounds but that was John Fitch and that dude is as tough as nails. Alves has had many fights finished in 3 rounders.
So I ask why not take the inside the distance bet if you want to bet on one of these guys? I like GSP to win. And may parlay him somewhere, but I am also looing at Alves +441 inside the distance. If Alves wins it won't go 5 rounds. I see no real way this fight goes all 5 rounds.
Seems like an easy way to make a parlay more valuable. Maybe I am missing something. Anyone have a stat on how many title fights go all 5 rounds?
But I am looking at 5Dimes odds for the UFC 100 card and taking guys inside the distance in 5 round fights seems to be great value.
First off I really like Lesner, GSP, and Hendo all to win. But especially in teh GSP-Alves fight...GSP is -280 but only -170 for winning inside the distance. Alves is +240 but +441 inside the distance. Most of these 5 round fights do not go the distance. And look at the fighters. You have GSP who has his only losses coming via sub and TKO. Then Alves with his only losses coming by TKO and sub. And when they win they finish. GSP went 5 rounds but that was John Fitch and that dude is as tough as nails. Alves has had many fights finished in 3 rounders.
So I ask why not take the inside the distance bet if you want to bet on one of these guys? I like GSP to win. And may parlay him somewhere, but I am also looing at Alves +441 inside the distance. If Alves wins it won't go 5 rounds. I see no real way this fight goes all 5 rounds.
Seems like an easy way to make a parlay more valuable. Maybe I am missing something. Anyone have a stat on how many title fights go all 5 rounds?
You guys realize that Mir got caught with a sloppy Lesnar punch before anyone knew what Lesnar's standup looked like... Lesnar was straight up scared of Mir's guard and got caught in a sub trying to get out of it even after he delivered a very hard and very illegal blow to the back of Mir's dome.
I think Lesnar definitely has a chance but is not worth a bet at this inflated line.
I think Lesnar definitely has a chance but is not worth a bet at this inflated line.
Sure, I like the Lesner fight not going the distance one way or another more so than the GSP fight. But the value doesn't change nearly as much in that fight's odds.
Yea BJ Penn took it to 4, but it still didn't go the distance. And still would have cashed. GSP-Alves is no lock to be finished inside 5, but if I were to bet on one of them, I would just take the inside the distance bet.
In recent memory the fights that went 5 rounds.
Silva-Leites
Forest-Rampage
GSP-Fitch
And that is about it within the last year and a half. UFC 75 I think Hendo and Rampage went the distance. But basically in 20 UFCs there has been 3 5 round fights go the distance.
Looking back there have been 5 5 round Dec. since UFC 69. UFC 68 there was one. So how ever you want to count it. So in 30 UFCs there have been 6 of them.
Either way it is a % that is heavily in favor of it not going 5 rounds. And to me GSP isn't Matt Hughes who will sit on someone. And Alves is a finisher.
Either way it is a % that is heavily in favor of it not going 5 rounds. And to me GSP isn't Matt Hughes who will sit on someone. And Alves is a finisher.
Mir won the first fight because of two words "steve mazzagatti". Had the ref not took a point away and stood them up, lesnar would of won on that first assault. Yes he got caught in a submission but that was lesnars first ufc fight. He has come so far since then. And mir beating a zombie like nog only boosted is own ego which will actually help lesnar. Like i said before the lesnar bet will be my biggest bet made and the one i feel most confident about.
Lesnar has beaten Heath Herring (14 career losses and some trouble with wrestlers) and Randy Couture (8-6 since returning to the UFC in 2001 and with almost no submissions) since the Mir fight.
Frank has better submissions than both guys (by a mile) and is finally getting into shape after his motorcycle accident. His only losses came when he was fat and not at 100% because of the training time he missed while he recovered. Mir wants Lesnar to take him down and Brock will eventually go to what he knows.
Either Brock by KO or Mir by submission. I don't see this one going past the 2nd round.
Mir is much better than Heath and Randy at this point though. Don't discount the former HW champ.
Frank has better submissions than both guys (by a mile) and is finally getting into shape after his motorcycle accident. His only losses came when he was fat and not at 100% because of the training time he missed while he recovered. Mir wants Lesnar to take him down and Brock will eventually go to what he knows.
Either Brock by KO or Mir by submission. I don't see this one going past the 2nd round.
Mir is much better than Heath and Randy at this point though. Don't discount the former HW champ.
I don't want to get too caught up in the hype about lesner. Jake T. I like your point of view on this fight. I agree this one is definately not going the distance. I know Lesner hasn't fought the best competition, but i know he is getting better each day and a man with his size and strength isnt always the best for MMA, but its hard not to like what he brings to the table. I'm definately sticking with my big bet with lesner. i can't wait for this fight.
I like the Lesner pick at -240 or lower. I see it at -240 at 5Dimes right now. I think Lesner should win and Mir's only chance is a sub in my opinion. The Lesner we saw at UFC 81 isn't the same one now. Sure he is no Sub expert, but his foot is the easiest place to lock on a sub. Try his neck or arm. The first go around Lesner had him all but finished and then on top of it gave him his leg. If he avoids the punch to teh back of the head and doesn't just swing his leg out in front of Mir I think he will win. But this fight is definatly not a lock. I think Mir is perhaps the toughest matchup for Brock in the UFC HW Div. I won't bet it straight. I may throw a small parlay on it.
Does anyone have any opinions about the GSP-Alves fight inside the distance?
early but ufc 100
Just curious why anyone would make the biggest bet of their life on a guy who already lost to his opponent who happens to be coming off the greatest performance of his career???
Odds are much to high on Lesnar. I personally will never bet on Mir again but this is way out of whack.
Just curious why anyone would make the biggest bet of their life on a guy who already lost to his opponent who happens to be coming off the greatest performance of his career???
Odds are much to high on Lesnar. I personally will never bet on Mir again but this is way out of whack.
