Duder's Unproven Untested system

[duderinow]

Hey all, I am going to start using a "system" for nba basketball games that I think is logical and should prove to yield many many units. I will call this the

Assumed Invariability System

Doesn't sound too convincing does it? I can't say I would reccomend following it until it proves itself somewhat, but up to you. Well the principle behind this system will follow the idea that NBA games are in some way or another, and often times in many ways going to be the same in the 2nd half as the first half. Now picking out and being able to tell the way in which it will be the same is where the tough part of this system lies, but to tell the truth, right now it will be based on my own good judgement and analysis of the first half and the two teams playing.

This system will only be bets on the 2nd half of games... BASED largely in part on what happened in the first half. So for a cruel example.... if the game was way under in the first half, then take the under in the second half. But if a team was only under by 1 or 2 points in the first half, that does not constitute a good play to take the under in the 2nd half. With this system I will only take the strongest 2nd half plays in my opinion to post. A slight downfall to this system also is there is only about a 15 minute window or so to do the analysis and get the bet in, but I do not see this as much of a downfall as the analysis of this system is for the most part right in front of me.

I take no responsibility as to whether you choose to follow my system, and for any wins/losses you incur. I will only post plays that I myself have taken, and this is just for your information if you choose to use it. Furthermore I may miss a lot of the later games in any given week night because of the nature of working a night job, ugh. So for that I apologize.... unless of course this system fails, then I don't apologize.

Well good luck to all, wish me luck with what some may call my... crude "system".

I will post my first picks after the all star break. If anyone has any insight into what may hep this system, feel free to post... but I have a pretty good idea of how I will run this.

As always, Make dat money money, make dat money money money.

Duderinow

 

[duderinow]

first run

Well I wont normally run this system on college plays, because I believe they are probably a lot more unpredictable, but I see a good 2nd half opportunity, so here is my first system pick....

UAB at Cincinnati - 2H Under 77 4 units

In the first half, the teams scored only 51 points, so I consider this a good system play. Good luck all.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

thoughts

A couple of other things crossed my mind just now. With this system, there is a small window of opportunity for people to get their bets in if they want to follow me, and for this I am sorry. But in the nba, you'll know to check my thread during the halftimes, so that'll help.

Also, for me, 1 unit = $25 and I just choose the number of units to bet based on my confidence in the play. Pretty much how anyone else would do it. Rarely will I go over a 4 unit bet. But usually my minimum bet will be 2 units.

Alright, well hopefully the first system pick comes out victorious, GL to all.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

ok

Well can't be too pleased with the first game of a system being a loss, but not really discouraged either. Like I said, college games seem to be more unpredictable to me, and I was just eager to run a test bet. Hope no one was on it with me. I think where the system will really prevail is in the nba. And I know the NBA a bit better than NCAA so my picks should be a little more informed.

YTD: 0-1 -4 units

 

[Dubpoet]

Some time you got to look at the first half line. In College the first half totals are less than the whole game total for a reason. For Example, Last Night Pacific Utep. 1rst half total 63.5, Whole game 136.5. Well the First half went under and the 2nd went over and Whole game went over. The 2nd Half total was 71 a good value.

 

[duderinow]

yeah, I guess thats the thing I didn't know about college ball, funny thing is I played the over on the 2H in that game as a non system bet on a whim.

The nba tho is often consistent in the 1st and 2nd halves i think. At least often enough to make this system work. by using good judgement on picks.

Duder

 

[Anonymous1]

dubpoet..i have found that a significant amount of college bb games go under the total in the first half...players have trouble getting going...nerves or what ever...just seems they tend to "feelout" each other for 8-12 minutes and this helps tremendously on the under...the second half commonly opens up as coaches make adjustments and teams open up...also it seems the second half is usually more up tempo...hence higher scoring...not to mention fouls that college coaches love to give to try and stay in the game...m2cs

 

[duderinow]

play

I'm not calling this a system play, because this system is meant for nba games, but I think this is a great bet.

After seeing the 1st half of the Duke game... 86 points scored, I am going to have to take the Over 84.5 2nd Half for this game.

Here's why:

1) What we've been saying in this thread about normally in college games, the 2nd half is higher scoring.

2) Duke and Wake Forest are both good offensive teams and playing very physical.... meaning lots of free throws.

3) The game is close, so when it gets down the stretch, I would expect a lot of points to be scored.

Good luck to all who choose to follow me on this.

Not putting how many units I've wagered, but I will say this is a big bet for me.

Duder

 

[ChooseORLose]

I like your concept but I have to disagree with your thinking. I have noticed that in the past when a game goes way under in the first half, it will go way over in the second, and vice-versa. Good luck with the plays you weed out. Be careful and Good Luck!

 

[duderinow]

Tuesday

I will most likely be posting 1 or 2 picks tomorrow night for my first NBA system picks. I can't say I would recommend following my picks, but I can't say I would go against them either as that would be like me going against myself.

I will keep a running record starting Tuesday, so as of right now I am 0-0 for NBA. Just a quick refresh. My bets will be from 2 units to 4 units, 4 obviously being what I feel are the strongest bets. Also if you do choose to follow my bets, there will be a small time frame to see my bet and put it in for yourself. This is obviously because halftime is not all that long.

Well I am looking forward to tomorrow, hope everyone does well.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

Bucks/Bobcats - 2nd Half Over 97 *2 units*

 

[duderinow]

Pacers/Magic - 2nd Half Over 92.5 *2 units*

The Magic shot a measly 30% in the first half, they will definately pick it up and score more in the second. This is still a system bet... as the system is still being refined.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

Raptors/Nets - 2nd Half Under 101 *3 units*

3 units is a fairly strong bet for me. GL all.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

I don't see any bet I especially like on the seattle or houston games, so I will call it a night for now as I have to get ready for work. Looks like it was a good night, will post record in a minute.

Duder

 

[duderinow]

woohoo

Today: 3-0-0 (+6.36 units)

YTD: 3-0-0 (+6.36 units)

Well I am pretty surprised and pretty happy to have such a good start to this simple system. Hope someone was following to enjoy todays wins. Lets hope it continues.

Duder

 

[ChooseORLose]

Well done. Looks like a clean sweep. keep it up!

 

[Doug]

Wouldn't your record be +7 units ? Most people risk 1.1 to win 1 unit.

 

[duderinow]

yeah

i was thinking about that, and that will be much easier to keep track... probably will do that from now on... and I'll just say yesterday was a +6 unit night.

 

[duderinow]

wednesday

Hey all, I'll be posting some plays tonight more than likely, so keep a look out for my thread during the halftimes.

Because of my mistake, I didn't bet even units last night... so here is my record to date, and hopefully I can keep it up.

YTD: 3-0-0 (+6 units)

Duder

 

[duderinow]

Wednesday plays

Heat/Pacers - 2nd Half Under 92.5 *2 units*