drunken NFL week 2

[drunkguy]

Record to date:

2-1-1 +2.2 units

Early plays for this week:

Miami -3 +105 New York Jets

I see this line more as a reaction to Miami's shocking loss than any true judgement of the teams at hand. Last week was a look-ahead situation for Miami, and they fell right into it. The Jets struggled against the Skins last week, managing just over 150 total yards of offense, and I expect them to have even more trouble against Miami. Miami's talent will show up after taking last weekend off.

Buffalo -2.5 Jacksonville (2 units)

I'll start by saying this looks every bit like a trap play. BUT...Bledsoe was able to put up 200 yards passing last week...Jake Delhomme was able to put up 122 and 3 TDs in a 2nd half comeback against the Jags last week. Meanwhile, Carolina's secondary played horrible in their win last week, giving up 256 passing yards. The Buffalo D held Brady and the Pats to under 150 yds passing and had 4 picks last week. Other aspects of teams should be similar, but Bledsoe should be able to pick apart this secondary and Brunell will have a hard time duplicating that effort on the other side of the field.

San Francisco +3 St Louis (2units)

Yes, the miracle man from last year Marc Bulger is back. But don't overlook that it was warner who had 300+ yards against the Giants last week. Also don't forget that the offensive line allowed 6 sacks. The Rams were held under 40 yards in rushing in that effort, and lost 23-13. San Fran did everything right in rolling over the Bears, and I'll take the better team getting the points.

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Kansas City -3 (-115) Pittsburgh

Possibly the strongest offense in the NFL, and arrowhead is a tough place to play. I'm not too big on the Steelers to begin with, so will gladly give only 3 in this game.

Denver -3 San diego

Chargers don't have too much going for them besdies Tomlinson, and the Defense is a wreck without Seau. Plummer not too hot last week, but Portis alone should be able to beat these chargers.

 

[TheGeneral+]

best of luck to you this week

 

[drunkguy]

Adding:

Washington +3 Atlanta

Washington/Atlanta under 39.5

Atlanta was outgained by Dallas last week 403-318, and started 3 of their first four 2nd half drives in Dallas territory, leading to 13 of their points in a 27-13 win. This week Finneran is out and with a fairly mild rush game (less than 100 yards vs the Cowboys last week), expect Peerless Price to see a lot of double coverage and Doug Johnson to get a lot of pressure from a tough Skins defense. Atlanta gave up 250+ yards to the hapless Dallas passing game last week, which doesn't bode well coming up against Spurrier's pass-happy offense.

Meanwhile, the skins held the jets to 158 net yards last week in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. However, Skins offense is built on speed, and the Falcons defense is fast enough to keep up with it.

Both teams were sloppy last week, and this may change now that the first game is in. I see this as a low scorer with two good defenses against two underwhelming offenses, and will take the points with Washington. The Skins D should keep it tight even if the offense can't produce.

 

[KMAN]

Hey Drunkguy - Like them all.

GL,
KMAN

 

[trench1978]

Sounds like you've got your shit together drunk dude.

The only play I am especially wary about is the SF bet. I think your fundamentals are sound as you are going with the better football team that is getting the points. However, when a team is starting a new QB, there are a lot of unknowns thrown into the mix, making this bet more volatile than it otherwise would have been.

Best of luck to you!

Trench

 

[Oorang]

I like your first three mucho.

The San Francisco game should be a real scrapper. Although I'm a fan, most of Bulger's wins came against inferior competion last year. The vibe around here in SF sounds like they are working themselves up big time for this one.

Good luck this weekend!

 

[WCBias]

Why is SF the better team? They have lost their last four games in SL by an average of 15 points, including last year by an 11 point margin. SL is a completely different team with Bulgar at the helm (6-1) last year, and more than anything, SL thrives on astroturf. If you are basing SF's success on on last week's showing, give it some time...they will not win their division this year.

 

[drunkguy]

Thanks for all the feedback guys...love getting comments (positive or negative) becuase it makes me examine my thinking more.

If I had to name ONE reason to take SF, it would be more of a go-against on Bulger. There is way too much hype surrounding his return. Yes, he did go 6-1, but that includes wins against Seattle (28th ranked defense in yards allowed), Arizona (29th), San Diego (30th), Chicago (25th), and Arizona again, and a loss against Seattle. He did have a his season-high pass rating (134.1) against a decent Oakland defense (11th).

He may step in and do well, but that O-line is going to cave in and cause him plenty of problems. I think this will be a battle, but SF has the better rush game (unless Faulk really steps up), the beter QB (as long as Garcia isn't hurt), and a better line. Again, the weak O-line is the big key here.

No way SF would be +3 with Warner at the helm after last week, if he didn't get injured. The public (hate using that term) is putting a lot of worth on Bulger and that's where I see the real value in this play.

Good luck guys!

 

[drunkguy]

good day so far...

adding:

Chicago +10 Minnesota

Basically fading the public here. In my "suicide" pool, about 20% took Minnesota. Lots of square action on Minnesota. Pinnacle opinion on Chi, offering Min -8.5. This was a marginal play at best, but going to give it a run just for these reasons.

Lean on under. Also see Chi +3 1st quarter out there at bet eurosports, also a decent play.

 

[drunkguy]

today:

5-2-1 + 3.8 units

year to date:

7-3-2 +6.0 units

Monday looks like a tough one, may lay off it. We'll see...