drunken college foots 2004

[drunkguy]

FYI...I will post as 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Personally, I calculate this 1% at the beginning of the year and will keep that unit size steady throughout the season, not vary it weekly. If I am significantly up or down I will re-adjust and make a note of it here.

First Weekend:

(using best line from Olympic or Pinnacle)

Virginia Tech +17.5 -107 (2 units)
Virginia Tech 1st half +10 -113 (3 units)
Virginia tech 1 half +455 (risk 1 unit)

risking 5.5 units is an awfully big wager for the first game of the season. However, I really do like these lines, particularly the 1st half. One thing not mentioned often is the relatively inexperienced USC offensive line going up against an older and more experienced VaTech defnesive front. I expect a lot of pressure from the V Tech defense which should keep USC in check. I can see it 14-10 at the end of the first half, with USC perhaps pulling away in the 4th quarter. I don't think V tech is as bad as everyone makes them out to be, and USC is of course overrated, and probably will be all year. I will bet against USC with overinflated lines in any significant matchup this season.

Some futures plays for this season:

(lines were posted at TFZ last week, from either Olympic or Royal, you can find better out there if you shop)

Timmy Chang to win Heisman 33-1 (risk 0.1 unit)

offense should be very powerful, he's gotten a lot of credit the past few years and will be taken seriously. I can't see how he wouldn't be nominated.

Minnesota to win Big 10 +1000 (risk 1 unit)

Minnesota returns 2 1000-yard backs and the bulk of its O-line. They should be controlling the ground game in the Big 10 this year. Also, they miss out on Ohio State as well as Purdue this year. The non-conference opponents are a joke. Their only troubles may be Michigan, Michigan St back-to-back on the road and Wisconsin on the road.

Minnesota to win Orange Bowl 66-1 (risk 0.1 unit)

see above.


may add some more futures next week

 

[Co-Captain]

Timmy Chang to win Heisman 33-1 (risk 0.1 unit)

offense should be very powerful, he's gotten a lot of credit the past few years and will be taken seriously. I can't see how he wouldn't be nominated.



Took Timmy on the Heisman as well...He will break it by the 5th game....and then put it out of reach forever...Many experts are saying that it wont ever be broken again, and I agree...But as far as winning the Heisman, I think that the Warriors have got to first win the WAC and then second win the last two games against NW and Mich St of the Big 10...

I read some good pros and cons for and against Timmy winning the Heisman this year in the Collegefootballnews.com articles....Some things that they mentioned, makes sense as to why he might not win the Heisman, even if he breaks the record...Good info to check out...Still, I did put down some on Timmy to win it this year...I am just hoping that the boyz get it done at Fresno and at Boise in order for him to have a chance at winning it...

I will have more info for those interested on the Warriors and their potent Offense that they will have this year, soon....I will also address the defense and some highly touted unknowns that will be replacing those studs from last seasons D-Line as well...Stay tuned, as these guys maybe younger, but they may be just as dominating as last years Def Player of the Year Travis LaBoy and All WAC DT Issac Sopoanga was last year.


Anyways, Good luck with your plays and futures this year...Aloha CC.

 

[ElIguana]

Co-Captain,

Timmy is a great QB, but you hit the nail on the head--the only chance a player on a non-perennial powerhouse team has to win the Heisman is to lead his team to a near perfect record. Timmy deserves the recognition, but the voters LOVE winners, bottom line.

 

[BigPete]

Gonna have to take a look at the Minn prop. Thanks for the heads up.

"Have a drink on me" -ACDC

 

[BigDaddyNole]

hell, as much as Chang might be a "feel good story", you're better off using your hard-earned cash as toilet paper .... there will be NO WAY IN HELL that he wins it --- even if he MIGHT be deserving

the "big school bias" will negate most of whatever he does ... his team's "strength (or lack thereof) of schdule" will be the final nail in the coffin of giving this guy ZERO shot to win it

too many talented people out there from "big schools" already on the radar ..... defending Heisman winner returns in Jason White, Cedric Benson will get MUCH consideration ... not to mentikn the defending national champs have a SOLID contender in Matt Leinart that will get his due since he's an upper-classman now

 

[drunkguy]

swept through Saturday. YTD: 3-0 +8.35

(with 1.2 units in futures pending. I have already deducted them from my YTD units).

 

drunk what's up man...I'm all psyched up for Akron. Who knows what this team will do this year.

sb

 

[tryingtofade]

bump past dumb-dom

 

[panther]

bump

 

[drunkguy]

sportsbet...you a Penn Stater? don't like the outlook this year man

trying2 and panther, good to see ya

all lines current at olympic

For Thursday:

Northwestern +7 -120 (buy 1/2) 2 units
Northwestern +220 1 unit

Getting down now on:

Michigan -13 2 units
California -13.5 2 units
Hawaii -20 2 units


Minnesota -12 (4 units)

minn has one of the strongest rushing games in the NCAA this year, returning 2 1000-yard backs and a great O line. Toledo loses 4 DL line starters and a lot of depth. "Battle in the trenches" is way on the side of minnesota...they should dominate the line of scrimmage and establish a very strong and persistant ground game.

will add more, waiting on lines

 

[drunkguy]

After last night, 4-1 +9.35

Getting down on:

BYU +4.5 (2 units)
New Mexico st +20.5 (2 units) I recommend waiting for 21 if it gets there

Fresno St +3 (4 units)

Fresno returns 18 starters, including an intact O-line and D-line. Lots of talent at the skill positions and they should end up on top of the WAC. Washington is a middle of the pack PAC-10 team. Only 6-6 last year and lost a lot of starters, including their QB, RB, and top WR. They should struggle and this is a tough opener for them.

S Florida -1 (3 units)

That will probably be all for week 1.

summary of pending plays:

Michigan -13 2 units
California -13.5 2 units
Hawaii -20 2 units
Minnesota -12 (4 units)
BYU +4.5 (2 units)
New Mexico st +20.5 (2 units)
Fresno St +3 (4 units)
S Florida -1 (3 units)

 

[drunkguy]

This week: 6-3 + 9.40

YTD: 9-3 +18.55

 

[panther]

drunkguy

great start buddy

good luck

panther

 

[drunkguy]

thanks panther..i see lady luck kicked you in the nuts this weekend...hang in there, it will turn around. lots of games left in the season.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Fantastic start to the season drunk!