DRF Race Of The Week - The Kentucky Oaks (Grade I)

oldmanTED · Apr 29, 2009

This Friday, Churchill Downs presents The Kentucky Oaks (Grade I) for 3 year old fillies at 1 & 1/8 miles on the dirt for a purse of $500,000. A field of 8 is currently scheduled to go to the post at 5:45 p.m. EDT. The post positions, morning line odds and past performance link are shown below. This is an open thread for anyone that wants to contribute, post a play, whatever. Best of luck.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Friday, May 1, 2009

<H3>11th (5:45)

Kentucky Oaks (G1)
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000
<TABLE class=tjctable summary=Results><TBODY><TR><TH scope=col>Prg. #</TH><TH scope=col>PP</TH><TH scope=col>Horse</TH><TH scope=col>Jockey</TH><TH scope=col>Trainer</TH><TH scope=col>Wt.</TH><TH scope=col>Claim $</TH><TH scope=col>Equip.</TH><TH scope=col>Med.</TH><TH style="TEXT-ALIGN: right" scope=col>ML</TH></TR><TR class=""><TD>1 </TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Tweeter</TD><TD>Mena M</TD><TD>Lukas D Wayne</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">30-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>2 </TD><TD>2</TD><TD>Be Fair</TD><TD>Bejarano R</TD><TD>Lukas D Wayne</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">15-1</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>3 </TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Stone Legacy</TD><TD>Desormeaux K J</TD><TD>Lukas D Wayne</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>LA</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">30-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>4 </TD><TD>4</TD><TD>Gabby's Golden Gal</TD><TD>Espinoza V</TD><TD>Baffert Bob</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>LA</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">10-1</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>5 </TD><TD>5</TD><TD>Justwhistledixie</TD><TD>Leparoux J R</TD><TD>McLaughlin Kiaran P</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>LA</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">5-2</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>6 </TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Rachel Alexandra</TD><TD>Borel C H</TD><TD>Wiggins Hal R</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">3-5</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>7 </TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Nan</TD><TD>Nakatani C S</TD><TD>Dollase Craig</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>L</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">20-1</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>8 </TD><TD>8</TD><TD>Flying Spur</TD><TD>Gomez G K</TD><TD>Mott William I</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>LA</TD><TD style="TEXT-ALIGN: right">8-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Past Performances

http://www.drf.com/formulator-web/f...ning=D&raceNumber=11#past-performance-race/11

</H3>

trytrytry · Apr 29, 2009

bridge jump #6 to show its at least a 20% overlay even at $2.10.

silver7 · Apr 29, 2009

OMT You're The BEST

Any preference??

oldmanTED · Apr 29, 2009

silver7 said:
Any preference??

Not sure this is a betting race as Rachel Alexandra is an awesome filly and is likely to go off at 1/5 or lower. I will study the past performances tomorrow and see if anything presents itself. BTW, I Want Revenge drew post #13 today. Perfect. It's been raining at Churchill Downs so we have to wait and see what the conditions are like Saturday but as you know I am locked in with a future already.

glenrobinson · Apr 29, 2009

The #6 should run away from everyone...I like the #8 for a shot in the dark.

steaktartar · Apr 29, 2009

6 looks like a laydown but i have seen better 1-5 shots ill try the 5 if 4-1 or higher

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

Race Update

Track Condition: Good (Will Monitor)
Jockey Changes: None
Scratches: #5 Justwhistledixie

GMS325 · May 1, 2009

I am going with the 5, Justwhistledixie, with the 6, 4, 2

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

Late Scratch: #5 Justwhistledixie

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

In today's Kentucky Oaks all eyes will be on Rachel Alexandra as the odds on favorite is expected by many to handle this field with ease. With the late scratch of #5 Justwhistledixie her odds are likely to be under 1/5. That being said, however, she may win but I believe she will be pressed in this race to do so. In horse racing, "Pace Makes The Race", and in this particular race, she is far from the lone speed and it is quite possible that she will have to rate behind the speed of #4 Gabby's Golden Gal. Now, Rachel Alexandra has shown she can rate, but that is not when she is at her best. If the pace is fast enough, even if she rates, she could be leg weary the last 1/16 of a mile. If she wins, cudos to her, but I'm thinking that a closer will win this one down the stretch. Very much like Mott's entry with Gomez in the irons. Going to play her straight as well as the Oaks/Derby double.

#8 Flying Spur (Win & Place)
#8 Flying Spur/#13 I Want Revenge (Oaks/Derby Daily Double)

Good luck everyone!

Gravy · May 1, 2009

Played the following in this race as I just got back and just heard the #5 is scratched

Super Wheel 6/4,8/1,4,8/1,4,7,8

$1 Pic 3 Oaks/Woodford/Derby

6/2,3,6/6,7,12,15,16,19

$2 Oaks/ Derby Double

4,6/ 6,7,12,15,16,19

$5 win on the #4 just for kicks

joeyp · May 1, 2009

heres my pick 3 6 with 4-5-6-10 with 2-5-6-7-10-12-13-16

$1 pick 3 for $32

nctarheelfans · May 1, 2009

12347/8/6

123478/6/all

joeyp · May 1, 2009

my bigger pick 3 is a $10 pick 3 6 with 6-10 with 2-6 for $40

Avon_Barksdale · May 1, 2009

i just hit so huge OMG wow time to carry over into derby day!!!!!!!!

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

Official Results

11th Race

Kentucky Oaks (G1)
Off: 5:45 | 1 1/8 Miles | 3 Year Olds | Stakes | Purse: $554,500
<TABLE class=tjctable summary=Results><TBODY><TR><TH scope=col>#</TH><TH scope=col>Horse</TH><TH scope=col>Jockey</TH><TH scope=col>Weight</TH><TH scope=col>Win</TH><TH scope=col>Place</TH><TH scope=col>Show</TH></TR><TR class=""><TD>6</TD><TD>Rachel Alexandra</TD><TD>Borel C H</TD><TD>121</TD><TD>2.60</TD><TD>2.20</TD><TD>2.10</TD></TR><TR class=altrow><TD>3</TD><TD>Stone Legacy</TD><TD>Desormeaux K J</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD>11.00</TD><TD>5.00</TD></TR><TR class=""><TD>8</TD><TD>Flying Spur</TD><TD>Gomez G K</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD></TD><TD>2.80</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Times in 5ths: :23<SUP>3</SUP> :47<SUP>2</SUP> 1:11<SUP>4</SUP> 1:36<SUP>3</SUP> 1:48<SUP>4</SUP>
Times in 100ths: :23.75 :47.46 1:11.81 1:36.71 1:48.87
Scratched: Justwhistledixie
Also ran: Be Fair, Nan, Gabby's Golden Gal and Tweeter
Winning Trainer: Wiggins Hal R - Owner: L and M Partners LLC
$2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $45.20
$2 Trifecta (6-3-8) Paid $151.60
$2 Superfecta (6-3-8-2) Paid $431.60
$2 Daily Double (9-6) Paid $137.80 Daily Double Pool $165,632
$2 Pick 3 (5-9-6) 3 Correct Paid $652.20 Pick 3 Pool $296,806
50 CENT Pick 4 (10-5-9-5/6) 4 Correct Paid $801.05 Pick 4 Pool $696,692
$2 Pick 6 (3/6/8-3-10-5-9-5/6) 5 Correct Paid $666.80 Pick 6 Pool $206,454 Carryover Pool $137,981

<HR>

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

Official Chart

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=CD&CTY=USA&DATE=20090501&RN=11

cashflowmatters · May 1, 2009

Ted: Who do you like in the Derby?

oldmanTED · May 1, 2009

cashflowmatters said:
Ted: Who do you like in the Derby?

Cash:

I will post in the Derby thread tomorrow. I already have a future on the horse. If you look back at the threads on the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial, it will be obvious who I like.