Ball St has the better Sagarin rating of #65 compared to #114, but has played a weaker schedule than Arkansas St, #141 to #125. Not that much of a weaker schedule though. Not as big as the difference between their Saragin rating.
Ball St has played two bowl teams in North Texas and N. Illinois and lost both matchups by a combined 28 points. Sounds like a lot, but they only lost by 7 to NT and that was on the road. NT only outgained them by a grand total of 9 yards. What killed them were the five turnovers. The N. Illinois game they were driving to tie the game and threw an INT which led to a TD. Then they were a pick 6 at the end. N. Illinois has a better Sagarin rating and SOS and NT is just a shade below Ball St in the Sagarin ratings. They were competitive in those two games, but i think they should have beat North Texas. Outside of those games they went 10-0 winning each game by an average margin of 21.1 points. They only had two wins within 7 points. Of those 10 wins, only one team (TOL) had a winning record and they beat them by 7. Not a real impressive schedule, but they took care of business and don't have any bad losses.
Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 OU) looked to be in jeopardy of missing out on bowling this year after starting the season off on a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS slump, but finished the season off very strong with a 4-1 SU and ATS record that included road upsets over Louisiana-Monroe and South Alabama. Like Ball St, they have only played two bowl teams in AU and Missour and lost each one as such by 61 points. They were not competitive at all in those games. Outside of those games, they went 7-3. They won those seven games by an average margin of 18.5 points. Three of those teams were bowl eligible. Their three losses were to Memphis by 24 on the road, LA-Laf by 16 @ home, and to a bowl eligible W. Kentucky by three to end the year. All of those teams have a better Sagarin rating then them, but i thought they should have beat LA-Laf or at least stay competitive, but they didn't. Don' really mind them losing to Memphis as they have a pesky defense, but they lost bad...by 24!
Ball State will be looking for its first bowl win in program history with an 0-6 SU record in six all-time bowl appearances. They are 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 OU and have one of the top passing attacks (#28) in the nation. The Red Wolves have one of the worst pass defense (#93) in the nation. Wenning is a good, solid QB. I've seen a few mocks with him going in the first round. He has the 12th best passer rating in college football. I don't think the Red Wolves will stop them between the 20's as the Cardinals have the better third down conversion percentage than the Red Wolves defense. The Cardinals will need to convert in the redzone. They have the #12 redzone offense and Red Wolves #24 redzone defense. Ball St is #38 in field goals, so not too bad. The only way i see Ball St struggling is if they beat themselves with turnovers and penalties.
Arkansas St finished ninth in the nation in passing yards with 333.3 per game and 12th in the nation in scoring with 40.1 points per game. They have a senior quarterback, Adam Kennedy, who is proficient, completing nearly 70% of his passes. They are balanced offensively, but not that proficient at either ranking #85 rushing and #87 passing. Considering the schedule they played, those aren't numbers that look too good. Although Ball St played a weaker schedule, not by a lot, they were at least proficient in what they do, passing. Defensively, Ball St ranks #92 against the rush and #109 against the pass. Again, considering SOS these numbers don't look too good. Same can be said with how the Arkansas St defense matches up with Ball St. But i digress, both defenses suck, we know but Ball St has a significant edge on offense in passing.
Ball St is top 53 in standard downs and on passing downs, thats above average. Arkansas St is #59 in passing downs compared to #100 on standard downs. So basically they excel defensively on passing downs (second down with 8 or more yards to go or third/fourth down with 5 or more yards to go). Ball St will need to win the early downs and get into favorable down and distance on third down....or just don't get into many third downs altogether. If they get behind the sticks, Arkansas St may have SOME success at stalling a few of their drives. And i say some, because Ball St is better offensively (#53) on standard downs than Arkansas St, albeit not by much, but still.
Offensively, the Red Wolves are #79 on standard downs and #97 on passing downs. Ball St is ranked #101 and #94 respectively. Number are bad for Ball St, but remember earlier i mentioned the Red Wolves efficiency numbers running and passing? #85 rushing and #97 passing. So, although Red Wolves may appear to have a big edge here, they really don't. Does that mean Ball St will automatically win the battle every time? No, i expect the Red Wolves to have some success moving the ball, but not as much as Ball St. Ball St has a defense that matches up better with the Red Wolves offense than does the opposite. Ball St is good against offenses that drive the ball methodically down field and that happens to be the type of offense the Red Wolves have. Arkansas St has an explosive ranking of #111 and methodical ranking of #61. So they rely more on driving down the field as opposed to big plays. Stop them on standard downs, i don't think they have the offense to keep pace with the Cardinals. Ball St lost to NIU because they couldn't defend the big play against Aaron Lynch...think they should do better against the Red Wolves here.
Offensively, Ball St can beat you both ways...with the big play (#11) or methodically driving (#24) down the field. Arkansas St has a respective defensive raking of #83 and #35. I think there will be plenty of opportunities for big plays for Ball St here as they should have success moving the ball on early downs and dinking and dunking their way down field. They have scored 40 or more seven times this season and they've got duel WRs with over 1,000 receiving yards in Snead and Williams. The defense gave up its share of yards, but held opponents to a respectable 24.8 points per game. I do not necessarily like the line movement in this game, but I think the Cardinals have the better athletes and don't think Arkansas St has the defense to stop Ball St nor the offense to keep up. Ball St has plenty of motivation and should be hungry for their first bowl win. Oh ya and the Red Wolves will be playing without their HC Bryan Harsin who returned to the Boise St Broncos.
The favorites in the past 11 GoDaddy Bowl are 8-1-2 ATS.
Ball St 40-something
Ark St 20-something
:toast:
Ball St has played two bowl teams in North Texas and N. Illinois and lost both matchups by a combined 28 points. Sounds like a lot, but they only lost by 7 to NT and that was on the road. NT only outgained them by a grand total of 9 yards. What killed them were the five turnovers. The N. Illinois game they were driving to tie the game and threw an INT which led to a TD. Then they were a pick 6 at the end. N. Illinois has a better Sagarin rating and SOS and NT is just a shade below Ball St in the Sagarin ratings. They were competitive in those two games, but i think they should have beat North Texas. Outside of those games they went 10-0 winning each game by an average margin of 21.1 points. They only had two wins within 7 points. Of those 10 wins, only one team (TOL) had a winning record and they beat them by 7. Not a real impressive schedule, but they took care of business and don't have any bad losses.
Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 OU) looked to be in jeopardy of missing out on bowling this year after starting the season off on a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS slump, but finished the season off very strong with a 4-1 SU and ATS record that included road upsets over Louisiana-Monroe and South Alabama. Like Ball St, they have only played two bowl teams in AU and Missour and lost each one as such by 61 points. They were not competitive at all in those games. Outside of those games, they went 7-3. They won those seven games by an average margin of 18.5 points. Three of those teams were bowl eligible. Their three losses were to Memphis by 24 on the road, LA-Laf by 16 @ home, and to a bowl eligible W. Kentucky by three to end the year. All of those teams have a better Sagarin rating then them, but i thought they should have beat LA-Laf or at least stay competitive, but they didn't. Don' really mind them losing to Memphis as they have a pesky defense, but they lost bad...by 24!
Ball State will be looking for its first bowl win in program history with an 0-6 SU record in six all-time bowl appearances. They are 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 8-4 OU and have one of the top passing attacks (#28) in the nation. The Red Wolves have one of the worst pass defense (#93) in the nation. Wenning is a good, solid QB. I've seen a few mocks with him going in the first round. He has the 12th best passer rating in college football. I don't think the Red Wolves will stop them between the 20's as the Cardinals have the better third down conversion percentage than the Red Wolves defense. The Cardinals will need to convert in the redzone. They have the #12 redzone offense and Red Wolves #24 redzone defense. Ball St is #38 in field goals, so not too bad. The only way i see Ball St struggling is if they beat themselves with turnovers and penalties.
Arkansas St finished ninth in the nation in passing yards with 333.3 per game and 12th in the nation in scoring with 40.1 points per game. They have a senior quarterback, Adam Kennedy, who is proficient, completing nearly 70% of his passes. They are balanced offensively, but not that proficient at either ranking #85 rushing and #87 passing. Considering the schedule they played, those aren't numbers that look too good. Although Ball St played a weaker schedule, not by a lot, they were at least proficient in what they do, passing. Defensively, Ball St ranks #92 against the rush and #109 against the pass. Again, considering SOS these numbers don't look too good. Same can be said with how the Arkansas St defense matches up with Ball St. But i digress, both defenses suck, we know but Ball St has a significant edge on offense in passing.
Ball St is top 53 in standard downs and on passing downs, thats above average. Arkansas St is #59 in passing downs compared to #100 on standard downs. So basically they excel defensively on passing downs (second down with 8 or more yards to go or third/fourth down with 5 or more yards to go). Ball St will need to win the early downs and get into favorable down and distance on third down....or just don't get into many third downs altogether. If they get behind the sticks, Arkansas St may have SOME success at stalling a few of their drives. And i say some, because Ball St is better offensively (#53) on standard downs than Arkansas St, albeit not by much, but still.
Offensively, the Red Wolves are #79 on standard downs and #97 on passing downs. Ball St is ranked #101 and #94 respectively. Number are bad for Ball St, but remember earlier i mentioned the Red Wolves efficiency numbers running and passing? #85 rushing and #97 passing. So, although Red Wolves may appear to have a big edge here, they really don't. Does that mean Ball St will automatically win the battle every time? No, i expect the Red Wolves to have some success moving the ball, but not as much as Ball St. Ball St has a defense that matches up better with the Red Wolves offense than does the opposite. Ball St is good against offenses that drive the ball methodically down field and that happens to be the type of offense the Red Wolves have. Arkansas St has an explosive ranking of #111 and methodical ranking of #61. So they rely more on driving down the field as opposed to big plays. Stop them on standard downs, i don't think they have the offense to keep pace with the Cardinals. Ball St lost to NIU because they couldn't defend the big play against Aaron Lynch...think they should do better against the Red Wolves here.
Offensively, Ball St can beat you both ways...with the big play (#11) or methodically driving (#24) down the field. Arkansas St has a respective defensive raking of #83 and #35. I think there will be plenty of opportunities for big plays for Ball St here as they should have success moving the ball on early downs and dinking and dunking their way down field. They have scored 40 or more seven times this season and they've got duel WRs with over 1,000 receiving yards in Snead and Williams. The defense gave up its share of yards, but held opponents to a respectable 24.8 points per game. I do not necessarily like the line movement in this game, but I think the Cardinals have the better athletes and don't think Arkansas St has the defense to stop Ball St nor the offense to keep up. Ball St has plenty of motivation and should be hungry for their first bowl win. Oh ya and the Red Wolves will be playing without their HC Bryan Harsin who returned to the Boise St Broncos.
The favorites in the past 11 GoDaddy Bowl are 8-1-2 ATS.
Ball St 40-something
Ark St 20-something
:toast:
Mabye watch the first half, see how things go and decide than? I have BSU has the better first half team and ASU as the better 2H team. BSU offense and defense gets worse in the 2H while ASU's gets better. I think thats largely in part due to BSU being up so much by HT they put things on cruise control in the 2H while ARK ST has to fight their way back to win games. I'd watch the first half and see how things go. BSU will need to stay ahead of the sticks on early downs. They need to get out of long yardage situations, so on first down that means getting a minimum of three yards and on second down getting into at least a 3rd and 4 or less. If they can do that, they will be in a manageable standard down where ARK ST is not good (#100) in the nation. I put a little on ARK ST just to hedge my parlay some. So if BSU does cover i lose a bit, but not much. If they don't at least i win something. And then all that is left is my FSU bet. My luck watch the testicles come out and crap the bed. First quarter should tell us a lot about this matchup. 67% of the Red Wolves TD come on the ground, so is BSU can stuff the run thats great. If BSU can get into the 4Q with a comfortable (14+) lead, i don't see them letting up...not with their first bowl game in program history in sight. And that happens to be ARK ST worst quarter of play.
